Analysis Using Data to Identify Midfield Targets

[Dylan82]

Before we dive into the data for 2023, how did the targets from last year’s efforts fare?


Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
The Lions, thick in the premiership hunt, traded in J.Dunkley to boost their contested game and had the benefit of father-sons W.Ashcroft and J.Fletcher coming through. Unfortunately for Robertson, it meant even more competition for a place in the team and he spent a large portion of the season in the VFL reserves where he has averaged impressive figures of 29 disposals, 7 tackles and 1 goal per game.
When provided with stints on-ball for the Lions senior team, he hasn’t looked out of place.

Rhys Mathieson (Brisbane Lions)
Suffered even worse in the competition stakes than Robertson did at Brisbane this year, failing to make an appearance in the senior team. A significant hamstring injury at the midpoint of the season didn’t help him either.
Still averaged over 30 disposals and 3 tackles per game from 12 VFL appearances.
RFA at the end of the season, almost a certainty to be playing elsewhere next year.
Turning 27 in 2024, he is probably too old now to be considered as part of a West Coast rebuild.

Harry Perryman (GWS)
Perryman’s season got off to an inauspicious start, suffering a moderate hamstring injury within the first minutes of his Round 1 match. With T.Green maturing into one of the premier inside bulls of the competition, and S.Coniglio re-capturing his best form, Perryman found himself squeezed out to the wing and unable to show his full potential.
Averaged 19.0 disposals, 7.5 contested possessions, 4.3 tackles, 2.4 inside 50s, 2.7 rebound 50s.

Tanner Bruhn (GWS Geelong)
Made the expected move home to Geelong and had a career-best season.
Rotating between half forward, wing and on-ball, he averaged 16.3 disposals, 4.8 tackles and 2.9 clearances from just 62% time on ground.

Tim Taranto (GWS Richmond)
Had a high-profile move to Richmond and dominated. Playing as the Tigers’ no.1 on-ball midfielder, his first half of the year was arguably as good as any in the competition. Heavily tagged during the second half of the season which reduced his output.
Averaged 28.8 disposals, 12.4 contested possessions, 6.2 clearances, 6.7 tackles, 3.5 inside 50s and 0.8 goals per game.

Liam Baker (Richmond)
Started the season with a bang, averaging 27 disposals over the first 5 rounds. After the departure of Hardwick, was played much higher up the ground as a roaming forward and his midfield impact became significantly muted.
Averaged 19.0 disposals, 2.2 tackles, 2.5 inside 50s, 0.5 goals per game.

Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide)
Played exclusively as a forward with the developing trio of Z.Butters, C.Rozee and J.Horne-Francis taking control of the middle for Port this year.
Ranked third for club goal-scoring with a career-high 29 goals.
Averaged 13.7 disposals, 3.3 tackles, 2.4 inside 50s, 1.5 clearances and 1.3 goals per game.

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide)
The role player that keeps sticking to his role. Played the defensive component of Port’s midfield, which allowed others to excel whilst still posting handy figures himself.
Averaged 17.2 disposals, 8.4 contested possessions, 6.8 tackles, 4.2 clearances and 3.5 inside 50s per game.

Brandan Parfitt (Geelong)
Had an underwhelming season, in and out of the first team, coming on five times as the substitute and breaking his hand midseason.
Final match of the season against the Bulldogs saw him at his best, but that was largely missing otherwise.
Averaged 12.7 disposals, 5.0 contested possessions, 5.6 tackles, 2.1 clearances and 2.1 inside 50s from 50.1% time on ground.

Paddy Dow (Carlton)
Unsighted at senior level during the first half of the year. Brought on as the substitute five times before injuries provided a chance for a start and he hasn’t looked out of place in a Blues team on the charge. Averaging 22 disposals and 7 clearances when starting for Carlton this year.
At VFL level has averaged 32 disposals per game from 10 matches.

James Cousins (Williamstown)
Disappearing from the footy landscape. Serious recurrent lower leg injuries have impacted his season, managing just four full appearances this year. In those four matches he averaged 29 disposals per game.
Looks like the reasoning behind his delisting was due to injury risk rather than ability.


All-in-all, not too bad. Some hits and a number of players who remain sidelined for opportunity.

 

[Dylan82]

So what does 2023 present for us?


Model 1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:

• Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
• Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
• Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
• Top 20 before the year the player turns 25

​

Pretty much a who's who, of the Rising Star from the last few years. Next.



Model 2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 15 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.

​

Hold the phone. Ginbey and Hewett both displaying +3 figures.



Model 3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.

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A couple of repeat offenders here. H.Clark was flagged on this indicator for 2020 and H.Perryman has now appeared for the last three consecutive seasons. Make of that what you will.



Model 4. Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development.

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Ginbey and Hewett named again, along with 25 other first round draft picks in this list of 40.




Model 5. Stoppage Potential

In addition to these, a fifth model has been added to improve identification of latent potential within the lower ranks. Here the AI was trained towards clearance dominance, identifying players with traits that align with those of elite clearance winners during the early stages of their careers.

Interestingly enough, the result was once again a dual output.

A first group, "Group A" composed of inside-dominant players who are likely to increase overall output as aerobic capacity improves.

And a second, "Group B" composed of players with the indicators of being productive around stoppage, but given little opportunity.

​

Well isn't that something - of the 14 players identified, FIVE are from West Coast.

Certainly came as a surprise to myself to see Trew, Petruccelle and L.Edwards listed here.



Targets 2023.

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality, what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlist of talent and add home state and contractual status to it, we find several candidates as possible targets:



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/6/2001 (22 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2023

Yes, this one again. Indicating strongly in our model on stoppage potential, Robertson is a WA-grown talent who is coming out of contract this year.

Pushed to the fringe by the deep pecking order for midfield spots at the Lions, Deven looks well-placed to provide a far greater amount of output if given the opportunity by another club. As posted earlier, averaged impressive figures of 29 disposals, 7 tackles and 1 goal per game in the VFL.

Having made just 38 senior appearances over 4 seasons, his price should be meagre as well.

Former WA U18 captain, Larke medallist and nephew of D.Glass. If rumours are to be believed, West Coast already has a 4 year offer in front of him.

Sign-on already Dev.



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
191cm, 86kg, 18/3/2002 (21 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2024

Big-bodied midfielder?
Basketball background?

Ever-present across almost all our indicators, yet was dropped by Gold Coast twice this season.

If you ever wanted a defensive animal to provide freedom for your other midfielders to perform, whilst contributing significantly in their own right, this is your man. Another profound talent being thoroughly wasted by the Suns.

Currently finds himself behind M.Rowell, N.Anderson, T.Miller, D.Swallow and rumours persist of Gold Coast pursuing A.Treloar and D.Prestia, presenting possibly even more competition for places with a year left on his contract.

A Cairns product who was able to be pre-listed by Gold Coast in 2020, it remains unknown how open he would be to relocation to WA.

But it's a question that is seriously worth asking.



Paddy Dow (Carlton)
187cm, 85kg, 16/10/1999 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2023

Another from last year, Dow keeps flagging on our indicators for untapped potential and performs when given opportunity. It's just with the stacked midfield ranks at Carlton, those opportunities don't come very often.

Coming off contract, it would be entirely career-limiting for him to remain at the Blues. Unlikely to entertain a move interstate, but worth the question. Still seems likely to join up with his brother at Richmond.



Dylan Stephens (Sydney)
184cm, 78kg, 30/6/2001 (22 years old)
State: VIC [via Norwood, SA], Contract: 2023

The former No.5 pick comes off-contract this year, is believed to have fallen out with Longmire, and is likely very gettable.

His 2023 also produces a second appearance under our Model 4, a significant indicator of development in years ahead. If we are looking for an outside runner to complement stoppage power, Stephens would slot in very nicely.

Has already travelled from country Victoria to SA (Norwood) and then to Sydney via the draft, so moving may not be so much of a barrier for him either.



Harry Perryman (GWS)
186cm, 84kg, 19/12/1998 (24 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: 2024 (RFA)

Still the forgotten Giant. An academy pick at no.14 in 2016, Perryman gets outshone by other names that do flashier things, but he is consistent, has brilliant decision-making ability and according to our data, is more than ready to take another step up in the midfield.

Perryman is highlighted in each of the past three years now as a midfielder that has potential to develop rapidly if given opportunity. Unfortunately for him, the GWS midfield goes pretty deep, and T.Green has developed into a monster. Is a ‘pre-agent’ this year, coming up as RFA next year.

Is he gettable? He's a NSW product who has displayed loyalty in the past. But maybe (hopefully) he's starting to tire of waiting for his chance to shine...



Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
186cm, 80kg, 26/3/1999 (24 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2023

The former pick 7 comes up very strongly in our model of players that could benefit from further opportunity. Is off contract this year and has thus far yet to enter discussions about renewal. An exceptional and damaging user of possession off both sides, he may be finally on the brink of taking the next step after being cruelled by injury earlier in his career.

Strongly linked with both North and GWS, he poses as a very handy pickup that would come at a low price.



Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
179cm, 88kg, 7/11/2003 (19 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

The second WA representative, is Dark Sharks favourite. A player that just loves being in the thick of it, Sheldrick indicated on both of our models 1 & 4 in 2023. Is he gettable however? Contracted until 2025 and held in high regard by the Swans, it would be very unlikely to pry him away from Sydney's grasp.



So there is a data-driven list of potential targets to improve the midfield this year.


Better yet, two very highly flagged players are already on our list - Ginbey and Hewett.

 

[Dylan82]

In review, how did our 2023 targets go?


Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
Recommitted after seeing his girlfriend’s reaction to a succulent Chinese meal prepared by the Lions. Even as Brisbane experienced an injury crisis early in the season he saw his place in the squad overtaken by younger, nimbler recruits. Hasn’t featured in the senior team since Round 3. At VFL level he has continued to average over 27 disposals and 6 tackles per game in 2024.

Turning 24 next year, he has played just 42 AFL matches over the last 5 years and still is yet to record a 20 disposal game at that level. Getting to the point where he needs a move away from Brisbane to save his career.


Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
Another that couldn’t break into the first team against the production line of competition that exists for midfield places at the Suns. Shuffled around, played as a pressure forward when finally given a senior opportunity and dropped shortly after for not being a pressure forward. Subsequent VFL form onball forced his way back into the first team, only to be hit with a three week suspension because L.Jones of Port decided to run into him head-first. Playing inside midfield, he had 8 clearances and 12 tackles in that match against the Power. When he returned from suspension, was shunted again to a position in the forward pocket for the rest of the season.

Only once this year did he spend more than 67% time on ground in AFL matches.


Paddy Dow (Carlton St Kilda)
Was traded to the Saints in a four-way exchange for little more than a bag of chips (Carlton gaining an F3 and two F4 picks). Had an interrupted preseason where it was feared he had suffered an ACL initially that turned out to be bone bruising and it wasn’t until Round 10 that he was able to represent St Kilda. With no preseason base, his form dropped around the bye and he went back to Sandringham to find fitness and form. Averaged 18 disposals, 3 clearances, 4 tackles and 5 score involvements per game after his recall and was a catalyst in the late season run by St Kilda.

St Kilda (11-12) had a 5-2 record during the season in matches where P.Dow had 14+ disposals.


Dylan Stephens (Sydney North Melbourne)
Traded to North Melbourne in a deal for one of their tin-rattling priority picks.
Played on the wing and was largely over overshadowed by other developing talent in a Kangaroos team that lost 14 matches by more than six goals. Played 16 games and was substituted 5 times. Averaged 14.6 disposals and 3 inside 50s per game when substitution matches are excluded.


Harry Perryman (GWS)
Has become a lock at half-back for the Giants, playing 20 matches and averaging 18.1 disposals at 76% efficiency, 4.2 rebound 50s, 5.2 intercepts and 323 metre gained across those this year in a team that finished top 4.

Is now arguably the biggest free agent in 2024.


Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
A series of injuries, including a major calf strain, deprived H.Clark of the first half of the season. Over his 11 matches, he averaged 19.3 disposals, 9.6 contested possessions, 3.9 clearances and 4.2 tackles. In all but one of those games, he spent less than 67% time on ground.

Similar to P.Dow, St Kilda were 8-3 whenever H.Clark played this year.


Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
Has been pushed down the order in the competition for midfield places at the best team in the league. With Sydney adding T.Adams and J.Jordon in the trade period, A.Sheldrick has not featured in a senior match for the Swans this year. Averaged 26.7 disposals and 4.5 tackles per game in the VFL this season.



A number of identified players still unable to break through and gain opportunities in the senior team.

 

[Dylan82]

So, what does 2024 present for us?


Model 1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:

• Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
• Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
• Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
• Top 20 before the year the player turns 25

​

Once again, pretty much a who's who, of already well-known young talent. Next.



Model 2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4.0 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 16 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8.0 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1.0 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4.0 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.

​

H.Reid becomes the fourth player to record a +5 figure at age 19 going back to 2010.

The other three are D.Martin (5.49, 2010), M.Rowell (8.34, 2020), J.Horne-Francis (6.72, 2022).

M.Windhager with a 4.44 is an interesting one here too. 2023 flagged target A.Davies appears again with another +3 figure.



Model 3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.

​

Known West Coast target J.Peatling is featured. Following on from the last model, both M.Windhager and A.Davies appear among potentiates for rapid development if given greater midfield opportunity as well.
R.Garcia and J.Graham are both flagged as having such potential, but may be limited due to smaller physical size.

Interestingly, R.Ginbey is listed here as well.



Model 4. Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development.

​

H.Reid and R.Ginbey representing West Coast in this model also, in addition to a host of other names repeating again.



Model 5. Stoppage Potential

Here the AI is trained towards clearance dominance, identifying players with traits that align with those of elite clearance winners during the early stages of their careers.

"Group A" composed of inside-dominant players who are likely to increase overall output as aerobic capacity improves.

"Group B" composed of players with the indicators of being productive around stoppage, but given little opportunity.

​

Aside from H.Reid in Group A, three other West Coast players in Z.Trew, J.Hutchinson and T.Dewar are flagged by the model under Group B with limited opportunities.



Targets 2024.

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality, what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlist of talent and add home state and contractual status to it, we find several candidates as possible targets:



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
193cm, 89kg, 18/3/2002 (22 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2024 2026

Identified last year and comes up overwhelmingly strong this year as well, featuring as an ever-present throughout the various models.

Once again struggled to hold down a spot in the senior team due to competition for places, and when he did was often marooned on the forward flank rather than in the guts where he belongs.

With the Gold Coast Academy production line of midfielders set to continue, that competition for places will only increase. Out of contract this year and receiving significant offers to move south (namely Collingwood and Geelong) already.

The club should be banging the door down to try and bring him west.

Edit: A.Davies has just announced a two year contract extension with Gold Coast until 2026.



James Peatling (GWS)
186cm, 80kg, 21/8/2000 (24 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: 2024

Who wants a two-way runner that knows how to find the ball? J.Peatling is having a breakout season, stepping up when injury has impacted the first-choice Giants midfield. If you exclude matches where he came on as the substitute, he has averaged 18.7 disposals, 9.9 contested possessions, 7.1 tackles, 5.0 clearances and 312 metres gained per game – that’s very good. It should be of no surprise that he figures highly on the greater opportunity model for rapid development potential as well.

But that is his problem, the opportunity remains limited. He has been the substitute seven times this year, battling to find a permanent place in a top 4 midfield.

His contract is up this year and other clubs are already circling. Bulldogs, Collingwood and West Coast are all known to have contacted his management. Eagles are believed to be offering $3M over four years. If he accepts and a deal can be done with GWS it will be a coup for the club.



Riley Garcia (Western Bulldogs)
178cm, 76kg, 30/1/2001 (23 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2024

The Swan Districts product appears in the list of candidates for rapid development if given greater opportunity. The midfield at the Bulldogs bats very deep and chances are limited. In four seasons R.Garcia has managed just 29 senior appearances. This year over his 11 games he posted career-bests across the board. In the VFL, he has been stellar, averaging 30.1 disposals and 7.7 tackles per game.

Running out of contract this year. WA origin, starved for opportunity, ready-made to have instant impact. It should be a slam-dunk. Just make it happen already recruitment team.



Jack Graham (Richmond)
181cm, 85kg, 25/2/1998 (26 years old)
State: SA, Contract: 2024 (UFA)

Flagged on the greater opportunity model, wants out of Richmond, helps to fill the age gap in the list profile and won’t cost a pick.

This is a free swing if there ever was one.

West Coast currently have a four year contract in front of him which the Tigers have matched.

Would be an improvement to the squad at no cost in terms of draft selection.



Trent Rivers (Melbourne)
188cm, 87kg, 30/7/2001 (23 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2027 (RFA)

Two years in succession now T.Rivers has figured below -1.0 on the AI Predicted Improvement model. After C.Petracca’s season-ending injury, T.Rivers averaged 24 disposals and 5 clearances per game, demonstrating his capability to step up into a midfield role.

Rumoured to be another that is not happy with things going on at the Demons and open to finding a way out – Collingwood are known to be chasing him.

Would he prefer a move back to WA? Only one way to find out...



Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs)
185cm, 86kg, 7/12/2000 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2024

Yes, that B.Smith. His contract is out this year and he has made it clear he intends to be playing elsewhere next season. Prior to his 2024-ruining injury, his accelerated development representation was in the same bracket as C.Serong, N.Anderson, A.Brayshaw, S.Walsh, T.Green, M.Rowell, E.Gulden and Ch.Warner.
He’s an exceptionally talented player that would suit the Eagles in terms of both age and role.

Generally regarded as on the way to Geelong. West Coast has more in terms of salary space and picks than what the Cats can offer – why not throw a line in?



Jack Carroll (Carlton)
188cm, 84kg, 20/12/2002 (21 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2024

When he wasn’t part of the substitute role, J.Carroll averaged 15.5 disposals and 5.0 score involvements per game this year. NINE times in 2024 he was either subbed on or off during matches. He features in Group B of our stoppage potential model as well.

His contract is running out and Carlton haven’t even made an offer to renew yet, which leads to his possible openness to a move back to WA.

The Blues need points for the Camporeale twins, could J.Carroll be a makepiece in securing that?



Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
179cm, 87kg, 7/11/2003 (20 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

As mentioned in the previous post, has been pushed down the order in the competition for midfield places at the best team in the league. With Sydney adding T.Adams and J.Jordon in the trade period, A.Sheldrick has not featured in a senior match for the Swans this year. Obviously didn’t indicate on models this year, but came in on multiple in 2023. Averaged 26.7 disposals and 4.5 tackles per game in the VFL this season.

Down to one year remaining on contract with limited chances – could he be getting restless? It’s a question the club should be asking.



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/6/2001 (23 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

Yes, again.

Has been completely starved of senior opportunity at the Lions, not featuring since Round 3 despite their injury woes. At VFL level he has continued to average over 27 disposals and 6 tackles per game in 2024.

His age suits the list profile of the team, and his ability as an inside mid rotation would be an improvement at what should be a near giveaway price.



Marcus Windhager (St Kilda)
185cm, 85kg, 16/5/2003 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

Here’s a curveball. Most Eagles’ fans know of him as the player who tagged and scragged H.Reid, whilst receiving the benefit of decisions from the umpires. Beyond that however, he’s actually had quite the impressive season for a third-year player and is listed significantly by many of the models. Has pace, good hands and knows how to find the ball. Basketball background as well, representing Australia at U15 level.

Would he even consider leaving the Saints though? Is a product of their Next Generation Academy, is held in very high regard there and this year was given the previously retired No.2 guernsey of “Spud” Frawley. Seems to be a future captain in the making.

It wouldn’t hurt to ask the question though.




So there is the data-driven list of potential targets to improve the midfield this year.


H.Reid is on track to be something special, R.Ginbey is ticking all the right boxes and many of the targets highlighted here are already being courted by the West Coast recruitment team.