Analysis Using Data to Identify Midfield Targets

[Dylan82]

Before we dive into the data for 2023, how did the targets from last year’s efforts fare?


Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
The Lions, thick in the premiership hunt, traded in J.Dunkley to boost their contested game and had the benefit of father-sons W.Ashcroft and J.Fletcher coming through. Unfortunately for Robertson, it meant even more competition for a place in the team and he spent a large portion of the season in the VFL reserves where he has averaged impressive figures of 29 disposals, 7 tackles and 1 goal per game.
When provided with stints on-ball for the Lions senior team, he hasn’t looked out of place.

Rhys Mathieson (Brisbane Lions)
Suffered even worse in the competition stakes than Robertson did at Brisbane this year, failing to make an appearance in the senior team. A significant hamstring injury at the midpoint of the season didn’t help him either.
Still averaged over 30 disposals and 3 tackles per game from 12 VFL appearances.
RFA at the end of the season, almost a certainty to be playing elsewhere next year.
Turning 27 in 2024, he is probably too old now to be considered as part of a West Coast rebuild.

Harry Perryman (GWS)
Perryman’s season got off to an inauspicious start, suffering a moderate hamstring injury within the first minutes of his Round 1 match. With T.Green maturing into one of the premier inside bulls of the competition, and S.Coniglio re-capturing his best form, Perryman found himself squeezed out to the wing and unable to show his full potential.
Averaged 19.0 disposals, 7.5 contested possessions, 4.3 tackles, 2.4 inside 50s, 2.7 rebound 50s.

Tanner Bruhn (GWS Geelong)
Made the expected move home to Geelong and had a career-best season.
Rotating between half forward, wing and on-ball, he averaged 16.3 disposals, 4.8 tackles and 2.9 clearances from just 62% time on ground.

Tim Taranto (GWS Richmond)
Had a high-profile move to Richmond and dominated. Playing as the Tigers’ no.1 on-ball midfielder, his first half of the year was arguably as good as any in the competition. Heavily tagged during the second half of the season which reduced his output.
Averaged 28.8 disposals, 12.4 contested possessions, 6.2 clearances, 6.7 tackles, 3.5 inside 50s and 0.8 goals per game.

Liam Baker (Richmond)
Started the season with a bang, averaging 27 disposals over the first 5 rounds. After the departure of Hardwick, was played much higher up the ground as a roaming forward and his midfield impact became significantly muted.
Averaged 19.0 disposals, 2.2 tackles, 2.5 inside 50s, 0.5 goals per game.

Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide)
Played exclusively as a forward with the developing trio of Z.Butters, C.Rozee and J.Horne-Francis taking control of the middle for Port this year.
Ranked third for club goal-scoring with a career-high 29 goals.
Averaged 13.7 disposals, 3.3 tackles, 2.4 inside 50s, 1.5 clearances and 1.3 goals per game.

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide)
The role player that keeps sticking to his role. Played the defensive component of Port’s midfield, which allowed others to excel whilst still posting handy figures himself.
Averaged 17.2 disposals, 8.4 contested possessions, 6.8 tackles, 4.2 clearances and 3.5 inside 50s per game.

Brandan Parfitt (Geelong)
Had an underwhelming season, in and out of the first team, coming on five times as the substitute and breaking his hand midseason.
Final match of the season against the Bulldogs saw him at his best, but that was largely missing otherwise.
Averaged 12.7 disposals, 5.0 contested possessions, 5.6 tackles, 2.1 clearances and 2.1 inside 50s from 50.1% time on ground.

Paddy Dow (Carlton)
Unsighted at senior level during the first half of the year. Brought on as the substitute five times before injuries provided a chance for a start and he hasn’t looked out of place in a Blues team on the charge. Averaging 22 disposals and 7 clearances when starting for Carlton this year.
At VFL level has averaged 32 disposals per game from 10 matches.

James Cousins (Williamstown)
Disappearing from the footy landscape. Serious recurrent lower leg injuries have impacted his season, managing just four full appearances this year. In those four matches he averaged 29 disposals per game.
Looks like the reasoning behind his delisting was due to injury risk rather than ability.


All-in-all, not too bad. Some hits and a number of players who remain sidelined for opportunity.

 

[Dylan82]

So what does 2023 present for us?


Model 1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:

• Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
• Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
• Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
• Top 20 before the year the player turns 25

​

Pretty much a who's who, of the Rising Star from the last few years. Next.



Model 2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 15 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.

​

Hold the phone. Ginbey and Hewett both displaying +3 figures.



Model 3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.

​

A couple of repeat offenders here. H.Clark was flagged on this indicator for 2020 and H.Perryman has now appeared for the last three consecutive seasons. Make of that what you will.



Model 4. Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development.

​

Ginbey and Hewett named again, along with 25 other first round draft picks in this list of 40.




Model 5. Stoppage Potential

In addition to these, a fifth model has been added to improve identification of latent potential within the lower ranks. Here the AI was trained towards clearance dominance, identifying players with traits that align with those of elite clearance winners during the early stages of their careers.

Interestingly enough, the result was once again a dual output.

A first group, "Group A" composed of inside-dominant players who are likely to increase overall output as aerobic capacity improves.

And a second, "Group B" composed of players with the indicators of being productive around stoppage, but given little opportunity.

​

Well isn't that something - of the 14 players identified, FIVE are from West Coast.

Certainly came as a surprise to myself to see Trew, Petruccelle and L.Edwards listed here.



Targets 2023.

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality, what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlist of talent and add home state and contractual status to it, we find several candidates as possible targets:



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/6/2001 (22 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2023

Yes, this one again. Indicating strongly in our model on stoppage potential, Robertson is a WA-grown talent who is coming out of contract this year.

Pushed to the fringe by the deep pecking order for midfield spots at the Lions, Deven looks well-placed to provide a far greater amount of output if given the opportunity by another club. As posted earlier, averaged impressive figures of 29 disposals, 7 tackles and 1 goal per game in the VFL.

Having made just 38 senior appearances over 4 seasons, his price should be meagre as well.

Former WA U18 captain, Larke medallist and nephew of D.Glass. If rumours are to be believed, West Coast already has a 4 year offer in front of him.

Sign-on already Dev.



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
191cm, 86kg, 18/3/2002 (21 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2024

Big-bodied midfielder?
Basketball background?

Ever-present across almost all our indicators, yet was dropped by Gold Coast twice this season.

If you ever wanted a defensive animal to provide freedom for your other midfielders to perform, whilst contributing significantly in their own right, this is your man. Another profound talent being thoroughly wasted by the Suns.

Currently finds himself behind M.Rowell, N.Anderson, T.Miller, D.Swallow and rumours persist of Gold Coast pursuing A.Treloar and D.Prestia, presenting possibly even more competition for places with a year left on his contract.

A Cairns product who was able to be pre-listed by Gold Coast in 2020, it remains unknown how open he would be to relocation to WA.

But it's a question that is seriously worth asking.



Paddy Dow (Carlton)
187cm, 85kg, 16/10/1999 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2023

Another from last year, Dow keeps flagging on our indicators for untapped potential and performs when given opportunity. It's just with the stacked midfield ranks at Carlton, those opportunities don't come very often.

Coming off contract, it would be entirely career-limiting for him to remain at the Blues. Unlikely to entertain a move interstate, but worth the question. Still seems likely to join up with his brother at Richmond.



Dylan Stephens (Sydney)
184cm, 78kg, 30/6/2001 (22 years old)
State: VIC [via Norwood, SA], Contract: 2023

The former No.5 pick comes off-contract this year, is believed to have fallen out with Longmire, and is likely very gettable.

His 2023 also produces a second appearance under our Model 4, a significant indicator of development in years ahead. If we are looking for an outside runner to complement stoppage power, Stephens would slot in very nicely.

Has already travelled from country Victoria to SA (Norwood) and then to Sydney via the draft, so moving may not be so much of a barrier for him either.



Harry Perryman (GWS)
186cm, 84kg, 19/12/1998 (24 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: 2024 (RFA)

Still the forgotten Giant. An academy pick at no.14 in 2016, Perryman gets outshone by other names that do flashier things, but he is consistent, has brilliant decision-making ability and according to our data, is more than ready to take another step up in the midfield.

Perryman is highlighted in each of the past three years now as a midfielder that has potential to develop rapidly if given opportunity. Unfortunately for him, the GWS midfield goes pretty deep, and T.Green has developed into a monster. Is a ‘pre-agent’ this year, coming up as RFA next year.

Is he gettable? He's a NSW product who has displayed loyalty in the past. But maybe (hopefully) he's starting to tire of waiting for his chance to shine...



Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
186cm, 80kg, 26/3/1999 (24 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2023

The former pick 7 comes up very strongly in our model of players that could benefit from further opportunity. Is off contract this year and has thus far yet to enter discussions about renewal. An exceptional and damaging user of possession off both sides, he may be finally on the brink of taking the next step after being cruelled by injury earlier in his career.

Strongly linked with both North and GWS, he poses as a very handy pickup that would come at a low price.



Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
179cm, 88kg, 7/11/2003 (19 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

The second WA representative, is Dark Sharks favourite. A player that just loves being in the thick of it, Sheldrick indicated on both of our models 1 & 4 in 2023. Is he gettable however? Contracted until 2025 and held in high regard by the Swans, it would be very unlikely to pry him away from Sydney's grasp.



So there is a data-driven list of potential targets to improve the midfield this year.


Better yet, two very highly flagged players are already on our list - Ginbey and Hewett.

 

[Dylan82]

In review, how did our 2023 targets go?


Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
Recommitted after seeing his girlfriend’s reaction to a succulent Chinese meal prepared by the Lions. Even as Brisbane experienced an injury crisis early in the season he saw his place in the squad overtaken by younger, nimbler recruits. Hasn’t featured in the senior team since Round 3. At VFL level he has continued to average over 27 disposals and 6 tackles per game in 2024.

Turning 24 next year, he has played just 42 AFL matches over the last 5 years and still is yet to record a 20 disposal game at that level. Getting to the point where he needs a move away from Brisbane to save his career.


Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
Another that couldn’t break into the first team against the production line of competition that exists for midfield places at the Suns. Shuffled around, played as a pressure forward when finally given a senior opportunity and dropped shortly after for not being a pressure forward. Subsequent VFL form onball forced his way back into the first team, only to be hit with a three week suspension because L.Jones of Port decided to run into him head-first. Playing inside midfield, he had 8 clearances and 12 tackles in that match against the Power. When he returned from suspension, was shunted again to a position in the forward pocket for the rest of the season.

Only once this year did he spend more than 67% time on ground in AFL matches.


Paddy Dow (Carlton St Kilda)
Was traded to the Saints in a four-way exchange for little more than a bag of chips (Carlton gaining an F3 and two F4 picks). Had an interrupted preseason where it was feared he had suffered an ACL initially that turned out to be bone bruising and it wasn’t until Round 10 that he was able to represent St Kilda. With no preseason base, his form dropped around the bye and he went back to Sandringham to find fitness and form. Averaged 18 disposals, 3 clearances, 4 tackles and 5 score involvements per game after his recall and was a catalyst in the late season run by St Kilda.

St Kilda (11-12) had a 5-2 record during the season in matches where P.Dow had 14+ disposals.


Dylan Stephens (Sydney North Melbourne)
Traded to North Melbourne in a deal for one of their tin-rattling priority picks.
Played on the wing and was largely over overshadowed by other developing talent in a Kangaroos team that lost 14 matches by more than six goals. Played 16 games and was substituted 5 times. Averaged 14.6 disposals and 3 inside 50s per game when substitution matches are excluded.


Harry Perryman (GWS)
Has become a lock at half-back for the Giants, playing 20 matches and averaging 18.1 disposals at 76% efficiency, 4.2 rebound 50s, 5.2 intercepts and 323 metre gained across those this year in a team that finished top 4.

Is now arguably the biggest free agent in 2024.


Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
A series of injuries, including a major calf strain, deprived H.Clark of the first half of the season. Over his 11 matches, he averaged 19.3 disposals, 9.6 contested possessions, 3.9 clearances and 4.2 tackles. In all but one of those games, he spent less than 67% time on ground.

Similar to P.Dow, St Kilda were 8-3 whenever H.Clark played this year.


Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
Has been pushed down the order in the competition for midfield places at the best team in the league. With Sydney adding T.Adams and J.Jordon in the trade period, A.Sheldrick has not featured in a senior match for the Swans this year. Averaged 26.7 disposals and 4.5 tackles per game in the VFL this season.



A number of identified players still unable to break through and gain opportunities in the senior team.

 

[Dylan82]

So, what does 2024 present for us?


Model 1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:

• Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
• Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
• Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
• Top 20 before the year the player turns 25

​

Once again, pretty much a who's who, of already well-known young talent. Next.



Model 2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4.0 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 16 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8.0 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1.0 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4.0 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.

​

H.Reid becomes the fourth player to record a +5 figure at age 19 going back to 2010.

The other three are D.Martin (5.49, 2010), M.Rowell (8.34, 2020), J.Horne-Francis (6.72, 2022).

M.Windhager with a 4.44 is an interesting one here too. 2023 flagged target A.Davies appears again with another +3 figure.



Model 3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.

​

Known West Coast target J.Peatling is featured. Following on from the last model, both M.Windhager and A.Davies appear among potentiates for rapid development if given greater midfield opportunity as well.
R.Garcia and J.Graham are both flagged as having such potential, but may be limited due to smaller physical size.

Interestingly, R.Ginbey is listed here as well.



Model 4. Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development.

​

H.Reid and R.Ginbey representing West Coast in this model also, in addition to a host of other names repeating again.



Model 5. Stoppage Potential

Here the AI is trained towards clearance dominance, identifying players with traits that align with those of elite clearance winners during the early stages of their careers.

"Group A" composed of inside-dominant players who are likely to increase overall output as aerobic capacity improves.

"Group B" composed of players with the indicators of being productive around stoppage, but given little opportunity.

​

Aside from H.Reid in Group A, three other West Coast players in Z.Trew, J.Hutchinson and T.Dewar are flagged by the model under Group B with limited opportunities.



Targets 2024.

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality, what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlist of talent and add home state and contractual status to it, we find several candidates as possible targets:



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
193cm, 89kg, 18/3/2002 (22 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2024 2026

Identified last year and comes up overwhelmingly strong this year as well, featuring as an ever-present throughout the various models.

Once again struggled to hold down a spot in the senior team due to competition for places, and when he did was often marooned on the forward flank rather than in the guts where he belongs.

With the Gold Coast Academy production line of midfielders set to continue, that competition for places will only increase. Out of contract this year and receiving significant offers to move south (namely Collingwood and Geelong) already.

The club should be banging the door down to try and bring him west.

Edit: A.Davies has just announced a two year contract extension with Gold Coast until 2026.



James Peatling (GWS)
186cm, 80kg, 21/8/2000 (24 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: 2024

Who wants a two-way runner that knows how to find the ball? J.Peatling is having a breakout season, stepping up when injury has impacted the first-choice Giants midfield. If you exclude matches where he came on as the substitute, he has averaged 18.7 disposals, 9.9 contested possessions, 7.1 tackles, 5.0 clearances and 312 metres gained per game – that’s very good. It should be of no surprise that he figures highly on the greater opportunity model for rapid development potential as well.

But that is his problem, the opportunity remains limited. He has been the substitute seven times this year, battling to find a permanent place in a top 4 midfield.

His contract is up this year and other clubs are already circling. Bulldogs, Collingwood and West Coast are all known to have contacted his management. Eagles are believed to be offering $3M over four years. If he accepts and a deal can be done with GWS it will be a coup for the club.



Riley Garcia (Western Bulldogs)
178cm, 76kg, 30/1/2001 (23 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2024

The Swan Districts product appears in the list of candidates for rapid development if given greater opportunity. The midfield at the Bulldogs bats very deep and chances are limited. In four seasons R.Garcia has managed just 29 senior appearances. This year over his 11 games he posted career-bests across the board. In the VFL, he has been stellar, averaging 30.1 disposals and 7.7 tackles per game.

Running out of contract this year. WA origin, starved for opportunity, ready-made to have instant impact. It should be a slam-dunk. Just make it happen already recruitment team.



Jack Graham (Richmond)
181cm, 85kg, 25/2/1998 (26 years old)
State: SA, Contract: 2024 (UFA)

Flagged on the greater opportunity model, wants out of Richmond, helps to fill the age gap in the list profile and won’t cost a pick.

This is a free swing if there ever was one.

West Coast currently have a four year contract in front of him which the Tigers have matched.

Would be an improvement to the squad at no cost in terms of draft selection.



Trent Rivers (Melbourne)
188cm, 87kg, 30/7/2001 (23 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2027 (RFA)

Two years in succession now T.Rivers has figured below -1.0 on the AI Predicted Improvement model. After C.Petracca’s season-ending injury, T.Rivers averaged 24 disposals and 5 clearances per game, demonstrating his capability to step up into a midfield role.

Rumoured to be another that is not happy with things going on at the Demons and open to finding a way out – Collingwood are known to be chasing him.

Would he prefer a move back to WA? Only one way to find out...



Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs)
185cm, 86kg, 7/12/2000 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2024

Yes, that B.Smith. His contract is out this year and he has made it clear he intends to be playing elsewhere next season. Prior to his 2024-ruining injury, his accelerated development representation was in the same bracket as C.Serong, N.Anderson, A.Brayshaw, S.Walsh, T.Green, M.Rowell, E.Gulden and Ch.Warner.
He’s an exceptionally talented player that would suit the Eagles in terms of both age and role.

Generally regarded as on the way to Geelong. West Coast has more in terms of salary space and picks than what the Cats can offer – why not throw a line in?



Jack Carroll (Carlton)
188cm, 84kg, 20/12/2002 (21 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2024

When he wasn’t part of the substitute role, J.Carroll averaged 15.5 disposals and 5.0 score involvements per game this year. NINE times in 2024 he was either subbed on or off during matches. He features in Group B of our stoppage potential model as well.

His contract is running out and Carlton haven’t even made an offer to renew yet, which leads to his possible openness to a move back to WA.

The Blues need points for the Camporeale twins, could J.Carroll be a makepiece in securing that?



Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
179cm, 87kg, 7/11/2003 (20 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

As mentioned in the previous post, has been pushed down the order in the competition for midfield places at the best team in the league. With Sydney adding T.Adams and J.Jordon in the trade period, A.Sheldrick has not featured in a senior match for the Swans this year. Obviously didn’t indicate on models this year, but came in on multiple in 2023. Averaged 26.7 disposals and 4.5 tackles per game in the VFL this season.

Down to one year remaining on contract with limited chances – could he be getting restless? It’s a question the club should be asking.



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/6/2001 (23 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

Yes, again.

Has been completely starved of senior opportunity at the Lions, not featuring since Round 3 despite their injury woes. At VFL level he has continued to average over 27 disposals and 6 tackles per game in 2024.

His age suits the list profile of the team, and his ability as an inside mid rotation would be an improvement at what should be a near giveaway price.



Marcus Windhager (St Kilda)
185cm, 85kg, 16/5/2003 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

Here’s a curveball. Most Eagles’ fans know of him as the player who tagged and scragged H.Reid, whilst receiving the benefit of decisions from the umpires. Beyond that however, he’s actually had quite the impressive season for a third-year player and is listed significantly by many of the models. Has pace, good hands and knows how to find the ball. Basketball background as well, representing Australia at U15 level.

Would he even consider leaving the Saints though? Is a product of their Next Generation Academy, is held in very high regard there and this year was given the previously retired No.2 guernsey of “Spud” Frawley. Seems to be a future captain in the making.

It wouldn’t hurt to ask the question though.




So there is the data-driven list of potential targets to improve the midfield this year.


H.Reid is on track to be something special, R.Ginbey is ticking all the right boxes and many of the targets highlighted here are already being courted by the West Coast recruitment team.

 

[Dylan82]

Finally... After about a dozen false starts and interruptions, let's get this posted.

In review, how did our 2024 targets go?


Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
Did not get a senior game this year until Round 20 – but has played in every game (including the club’s first finals) since then. Prior to that he toiled in the middle at VFL, averaging 23.2 disposals, 12.1 contested possessions, 6.5 clearances and 5.4 tackles per game.
Now playing in his natural role, he is proving to be the perfect defensive foil to run alongside the superstar duo of M.Rowell and N.Anderson. The Semi Final loss against Brisbane was the first time in 2025 that Gold Coast lost a match where A.Davies had more than 65% time on ground (5-1).


Riley Garcia (Western Bulldogs)
Twisted awkwardly in a tackle during the final minutes of a preseason match, damaging cartilage in his knee that required surgery. As a result, he missed the next 12 weeks of the season. In his three VFL matches after injury he averaged ridiculous totals of 36.0 disposals, 19.0 contested possessions, 10.3 clearances, 8.3 inside 50s and 6.7 tackles.

Played every senior match for the Bulldogs from Round 17 onwards, but with the massive depth in their midfield ranks, he found himself shunted to starvation corner in the forward pocket.

One to watch for future years as he nears RFA in 2027.


Marcus Windhager (St Kilda)
Played in every game for St Kilda this year in a season of two halves as R.Lyon finally started to unshackle him from purely defensive-minded roles. Before and after Round 17 the difference is clear: +6.0 disposals, +80.1 metres gained, +23.6 SuperCoach points per game.

St Kilda’s win percentage in 2025 was 31% when M.Windhager had less than 25 disposals – it increased to 57% when he had 25 or more. One wonders what he could do if given more freedom.


Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs Geelong)
Traded to Geelong for well-below value (picks 17 and 38, with 45 also coming back with B.Smith) because the Cats are campaigners at the trade table and the Bulldogs folded rather than let him go to the draft for nothing. Despite his ACL, all the model statistics suggested that he was ready to explode on the field once he was fit again – and he certainly has done just that.
In 2025 he has played 21 matches, ranking first in the entire competition for disposals and inside 50s per game and second for metres gained per game. He is the outright second-favourite behind N.Daicos for the Brownlow Medal.

When B.Smith has had 20 or more effective disposals this year, Geelong are 10-1. When he has had less than 20 effective disposals, Geelong are 5-5.


Trent Rivers (Melbourne)
Stayed with Melbourne despite rumours of unrest and strong interest from rivals. Continued to be used as a defender first and midfielder second, despite the Demons looking for generational change in the middle. Statistically his year has been near identical to 2024. Seems to have plateaued in his current role – it will be interesting what the new coach will do with him.


James Peatling (GWS Adelaide)
Agreed to join Adelaide after half the competition were chasing him. Traded for a future second round pick with future third and fourth round picks coming back – a deal that has effectively turned out to be 34 for J.Peatling and 48 – placing his traded value at around pick 40, an exceptional bargain for the Crows.

Had a career-best season, playing 21 matches so far as a vital cog in an Adelaide team that jumped from 15th to the minor premiership.


Jack Graham (Richmond West Coast)
Joined West Coast under free agency. Played 18 matches in 2025, accumulating career-highs in disposals, tackles, clearances and contested possessions per game. Ranked 4th across the competition for tackles per game.


Jack Carroll (Carlton St Kilda)
Delisted by Carlton and signed by St Kilda as a delisted free agent. Entered the season still recovering from two bad concussion injuries sustained during the second half of the previous year and hamstring and knee injuries further interrupted his availability. Struggled with match fitness as a result and only made three appearances as the substitute for the Saints during the 2025 season. His VFL form at Sandringham was encouraging, averaging 21.1 disposals, 10.0 contested possessions, 4.6 clearances, 4.8 tackles and 4.5 inside 50s from his 11 appearances.


Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
Featured in the substitute role six times before getting his first full senior match of the season in Round 10 as the Swans’ injury woes provided an opportunity that he took with both hands.
Played every game thereafter, averaging 19.8 disposals, 9.6 contested possessions and 4.8 tackles per game. In the face of mounting speculation about interest from rival clubs, he signed a two year extension with Sydney to the end of 2027.


Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
Has only featured for the Lions senior team 4 times this year – all as the substitute. It means he has only played a full AFL game just once over the past two seasons: Round 1, 2024.
Just keeps getting pushed back in the pecking order by the Academy production line. This year it was L.Ashcroft and S.Marshall who moved ahead of him. D.Annable is ready-made to push him back even farther next year.

In VFL he again averaged very good figures of 26.1 disposals, 13.3 contested possessions, 6.3 clearances and 6.7 tackles per game, making the squad for the VFL Team of the Year.

Will surely be moving from Brisbane this trade period.



Some breakouts, some still biding their time for a chance to make their mark.

 

[Dylan82]

So what does 2025 present for us?


1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:

• Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
• Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
• Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
• Top 20 before the year the player turns 25

​

The expected names are there once again, although we also see two players who have played just 10 matches between them this year in E.Tsatas and K.McAuliffe.



2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 16 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.

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In a year where the future has become the present, 10 of the top 15 midfielders in the competition this season according to the ranked [CP + CL + In50] system are aged 25 or under.

As a result, the output here describes those who have been dominant on the inside and outside respectively, forecasting that dominance will continue into the future as well.

High draftees L.Ashcroft and S.Lalor head the ranks of new talent to be found.

Interestingly, E.Tsatas from the previous list also gains a +3 here. H.Reid, positioned away from midfield during the first half of the year, fails to make a showing. Fellow Eagles E.Hewett, and perhaps to some surprise T.Brockman, do make an appearance.



3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.

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And now we find H.Reid – who will without question get more time in the midfield if he can maintain his conditioning off the field. Reflective of the nature of the season overall, the players listed here as having potential for rapid development are typically much younger than in previous years, with all the primary candidates aged 22 or younger. Eagle C.Hall makes the list.

To emphasise the general inexperience of this list, only D.Moore of Hawthorn, listed as a secondary candidate due to his smaller physical size possibly limiting his potential to impact the midfield, has played more than 50 games with 122.



4. Yeo 2014 – Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development. The downside with this model output is it generally tends to repeat what has already been described earlier in addition to having a list that is overly long.

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43 players listed, 4 from West Coast (H.Reid, E.Hewett, T.Brockman, B.Hough).

Hawthorn leads the competition with 5 listings, Carlton the only club without a representative – indeed, Carlton have not had a player here since S.Walsh in 2021 – great job with that pick decision again Eagles…



5. Stoppage Potential Starting in Defence

The Stoppage Potential model used last year has been discarded, as its outputs weren’t really that useful (repeating those already mentioned in other models interspersed with players that turn out more likely to be delisted rather than excel.

With more data (and more time to interrogate that data), an alternative model pathway was identified – accumulators that start behind play and then transition into the midfield as they mature. Looking retrospectively, this model identifies the following players long before they were entrenched in the midfield: J.Dawson, W.Day (2021); H.Young, E.Richards, N.Daicos (2022); H.Sheezel (2023); N.Wanganeen-Milera (2024).

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The Lions appear well-placed to maintain their ascendancy in the middle into the future according to this model.



6. Scheduled for Take-off

In this instance, the AI was given the dataset and tasked to identify which midfielders could be expected to improve the most in the following year. This relatively simple model started out as a means of validating and training some of the aforementioned models above, but seeing the way it has picked up on players, I’ll put its output here also.

In 2024, these players were identified:

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Now it has these players flagged for 2026:

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Naz and Kosi are almost to be expected, J.Ward may be of surprise to some though.



7. Expanding the horizon

I have long been of the opinion that there are several players out there in the wilderness, plying their trade in the state leagues who could perform well at the top level if granted an opportunity. The success of two players in particular this season, N.Long (Collingwood) and T.McCarthy (West Coast), has only furthered this belief.

With go-home to WA options very thin amongst the AFL cohort (for example the 43 players identified above in the early identification model – just 7 are from WA: 3 are already at the club, 2 are at Fremantle, and the remaining 2 just re-signed with their respective interstate clubs), combined with winning just 11 games in 4 years, the challenge in pitching the club over rivals when it comes to recruitment targets is currently massive – indeed, second-tier players that have been overlooked elsewhere may be where it is forced to go should other avenues prove unsuccessful.

Unfortunately, trying to get decent statistics to analyse players at this level of competition has been a black box – until now. Thanks to Wheelo Ratings we actually have good statistical coverage from season 2024 onwards that can be used as a dataset for interrogation.


So, what is it about Ned Long? 195cm and able to run a 6:05 2km in his draft year – attributes that recruiters typically fall over themselves for. Taken by Hawthorn in the 2021 rookie draft, but was unable to prove a point of difference from other big aerobic utilities/midfielders that the Hawks were stocking up on (W.Day, H.Hustwaite, C.Nash, J.Weddle, F.Maginness, C.Mackenzie) and was delisted after two seasons and 5 games. Went back to Collingwood VFL and smashed it as an onball player, prompting Collingwood AFL to take him in the mid-season draft of that same year. Provided with opportunity due to the injuries to J.de Goey and T.Mitchell, he has been a key component in how the Magpies have revitalised this year after missing finals altogether in 2024.

Collingwood don’t excel at clearances, contested possessions, or turnover ball – but they are number one in the competition for pressure, tackling and intercepts. And N.Long is the tip of that spear. He leads the club for both tackling and pressure – ranking inside the top 10 of both statistics across the entire competition. At his size, only J.Dunkley, W.Setterfield and A.Davies are producing comparable figures.

His ability to serve the block-and-peel role around stoppage, being the first receiver to facilitate 1-2s for N.Daicos, is fundamental to the Magpie’s offensive output.

In 2025, when N.Long has had over 20 disposals, Collingwood are 10-1 (with the sole loss being the Round 23 match against Adelaide where they had +34 inside 50s and somehow failed to win).

Conversely, when N.Long has had 20 or less disposals, Collingwood are 7-6.


With that lengthy introduction out of the way, does our second-tier dataset have much to say about finding another Ned Long-type, working away in relative obscurity?

Given the limitations (just 2 years of data), two things become very apparent when cross-referencing this set:

• almost every player with similar performance, size (188+cm) and age (25 or younger) is already on an AFL list, or has a previous affiliation with one.
• The younger a player is when they appear on output lists appears to correlate with being able to translate performance to AFL.

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Now onto T.McCarthy. The mid-season draft pick has been a revelation – he leads West Coast in disposals and metres gained per match and has arguably been the club’s best player in the second half of the year. His ability to take play on, make good decisions and execute well appears ready-made for the direction that AFL football is heading.

What’s better than one T.McCarthy? Finding a second one of course.

For Richmond VFL in 2025, T.McCarthy exhibited a combination of accumulation at very high efficiency, whilst maintaining a considerable rate of contested possessions. When we use this as a rule, we get the following output:

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Once again, most of the players identified are already affiliated with AFL clubs with a few exceptions.




Targets 2025

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality (N.Daicos and M.Rowell for example are completely unrealistic, and similarly players with contracts beyond next year have been excluded as well – removing Western Australian talent like Ch.Warner, Co.Warner, A.Sheldrick, D.Curtin, D.Jones, T.Rivers, H.Boxshall and N.Erasmus from our list), what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlists of talent, we still find several candidates as possible targets:



Cameron Mackenzie (Hawthorn)
188cm, 84kg, 21/01/2004 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

Features in almost all the above models described. A complete player on both inside and outside, he was the only player that featured in both of the second-tier talent models as well.

The no.7 pick in the 2022 draft, he has endured an interrupted 2025, fracturing his hand mid-season and having hamstring problems after his return. Listed as an emergency for the Hawks’ Semi Final win over Adelaide, he was best on ground a couple of days later in the VFL Preliminary Final in a losing effort for Box Hill against Footscray.

He is simply too good a player to not be playing at the highest level. Hawthorn are looking to bring in Z.Merrett from Essendon, which will only further increase the competition there for midfield spots. Reports earlier in the year of C.Mackenzie considering his options have been hosed down by the Hawks, but that has not stopped St Kilda from declaring their interest in pursuing him (he was a previous NGA there that they couldn’t get through the draft).

If the club wants to chase quality, here would be a good starting point.



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
193cm, 89kg, 18/03/2002 (23 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2026

An ever-present in these lists from previous years, A.Davies is noted this year in the “Ned Long” model of second-tier potential.

Didn’t get an AFL start this year until the last week of July, but featured in every match thereafter.

Earlier in the season was widely reported as “keen” to move due to lack of opportunity in the senior team, with several clubs appearing to be circling for his signature, including Collingwood and Geelong who chased hard for him last year.

The combination of a lack of major offers from elsewhere and recent selection in the senior team as a starting midfielder now seems likely to keep him at the Suns.

West Coast should have been all over this earlier in the year when the opportunity to potentially turn his head was there – perhaps they could still throw in a Hail Mary offer, but it looks like the horse has already bolted on this one.



Marcus Windhager (St Kilda)
185cm, 85kg, 16/05/2003 (22 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

Another from previous years – M.Windhager has had a contract in front of him all year from St Kilda that remains unsigned three weeks after the club’s season ended. Naturally, this has resulted in a lot of speculation regarding his whereabouts next year.

When your housemate (N.Wanganeen-Milera), at the same age and at the same employer gets paid more than four times what you are being offered, it can cause some frustration.

North Melbourne jumped in and offered twice what St Kilda had put forward, in terms of both salary and years. Melbourne, Essendon, Bulldogs and West Coast have also been linked as having an interest.

With St Kilda now upping their offer to match the number of years coming from the Kangaroos, it may just be a ploy to squeeze as much from the Saints as he can before recommitting.

L.Ryan has announced his intent to move to St Kilda despite being contracted next year, the Eagles could find themselves well-placed for a player swap that is beneficial for both parties if they move quickly on the current situation.



Henry Hustwaite (Hawthorn)
195cm, 86kg, 20/07/2004 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

“Desperate” to get out if you believe media reports over the past few weeks.

Down the midfield pecking order at Hawthorn, H.Hustwaite has played just 10 senior matches in three years – with six of those impacted by substitution. His VFL form is imperious, from 17 matches this year has has averaged 29.4 disposals, 17.9 contested possessions, 9.5 clearances and 5.4 tackles per game, earning a place in the 2025 VFL Team of the Year.

Essendon are considering their interest, particularly should the trade of Z.Merrett to Hawthorn occur with H.Hustwaite a possible component of that. Carlton have been linked in the media, but they have publicly denied any interest.

The biggest midfield bull on the market – if West Coast have any genuine intent on building a midfield that can compete for contested possession, they should be all over this in a very aggressive way.




Elijah Tsatas (Essendon)
187cm, 82kg, 18/10/2004 (20 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

Scored above +3.0 on the AI Predicted Improvement model. Has arguably struggled to have the same impact at AFL to level compared to VFL, but injury (broken hand, hamstring in 2025) and questionable coaching have had their impact. Somehow it seems everyone has forgotten that the no.5 pick from 2022 is still only 20 years old and has barely been given a chance at the Bombers to show his potential (he has played just two senior matches with more than 65% time on ground in the past two years).

Form at VFL level this season speaks for itself: 34.1 disposals, 15.1 contested possessions, 10.4 clearances, 4.9 score involvements, 4.9 inside 50s, 4.5 tackles on average per game from his 7 matches played.

Unverified reports circulating that Collingwood, Richmond and the two SA teams are tracking his availability. With Z.Merrett potentially on the way out, Essendon may now reassess their appetite for letting him go – the club needs to act now before this opportunity passes.



Will Phillips (North Melbourne)
181cm, 82kg, 22/05/2002 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

One of the most polarising players in the competition when it comes to supporter opinion. For a player that appears to be available for very little value, the models suggest there would be something to work with here. Infamously selected at pick no.3 in 2020, what is forgotten is that pre-draft opinions were near-unanimous in that he would be selected inside the top 5. Those expectations have obviously not been realised, and a combination of injury, glandular fever and complete loss of favour with the coaches have brought upon the current situation.

From 12 VFL matches this year, he averaged respectable totals of 23.8 disposals, 11.2 contested possessions, 6.2 clearances and 9.7 tackles per game. Has played just 5 matches with over 70% time on ground at senior level in the past two years.

I think one of the things that have been lost in the discussion of W.Phillips is that he is a L.Neale type of midfielder – stoppage extractor with excellent hands, tackling and two-way coverage, but lacks the physical size to be imposing at the top level. L.Neale has benefitted from the protection from teammates who could enforce their physicality around contests: N.Fyfe, D.Mundy (Fremantle), M.Robinson, J.Berry, J.Dunkley (Brisbane). North Melbourne only have a single midfielder over 185cm on their list in L.Davies-Uniacke, and he is certainly not a defensive presence. It’s a further indictment on North’s recruitment and adds weight to the argument that a change in environment may be what W.Phillips needs to realise that pre-draft potential.

North have not yet offered a new contract and current expectations are that he will be delisted should no offers come in from any rivals before the draft.

This is effectively a free swing – the cost would be negligible, and at the very least his personality and leadership would be exceptionally valuable to the WAFL program. If it were to work out for the senior team then the club would be laughing.



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/06/2001 (24 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

Every year, here we are yet again.

Completely frozen out at Brisbane, he can’t even make the emergencies now despite injury impacting the Lions’ midfield. His form at VFL has continued to be very good, averaging 26.1 disposals, 13.3 contested possessions, 6.3 clearances and 6.7 tackles per game from his 15 appearances and has been named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

After their elimination to Box Hill in the VFL, the Lions players gave D.Robertson an applause and had him lead the team off the field – a sure sign that he has played his last game for the club.

If he doesn’t request a trade he will be delisted. West Coast should wait for that and take him in the Pre-Season Draft. Similar to W.Phillips, at minimum he would provide valuable leadership to the WAFL team. To be honest though, despite not being near Brisbane’s best team, he would still walk into West Coast’s best 22 – that’s the reality of where things are at.



Harry Scott (Richmond VFL)
191cm, 85kg, 24/01/2005 (20 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

He has the highest ceiling of all current players who have been overlooked by the draft.

Is noticeable that he is the only candidate identified by the “Ned Long” second-tier model over the past two years that has not been on an AFL or Academy list. One of the leading contenders for this year’s VFL Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal for the best talent aged 24 or under.

Averaged 21.1 disposals and 8.5 contested possessions per game for Richmond VFL this season, being one of just 12 players to go above 20 and 8 for those statistics before the age of 21 – all of the other 11 are on AFL lists. Also has a strong basketball background, representing Vic Country in Under 16s.

Beyond that, what has turned heads is his movement. He still has pace for a player of his size and his GPS numbers are already comparable to AFL level. Could easily adapt to a D.Curtin style of wing, however his standout ability by hand suggests a future around stoppage beckons.

Richmond want him for their AFL team and will surely use a selection on him before the rookie draft. Last year’s young talent winner in the VFL (S.Davidson) was selected at pick 51 – in this draft where the depth of talent available appears to be lower, I do not foresee H.Scott lasting near as long.

In an ideal world, part of a compensation package would include the ability to pre-list a number of unaffiliated players from second-tier leagues that have previously been overlooked by the draft and that would cover H.Scott. Without that, a pick before 40 is likely to be required.



Angus Anderson (Sturt)
190cm, 90kg, 25/05/2003 (22 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: None

Angus “Bangers” Anderson is an interesting one.

Dominated local football in Sawtell, NSW and then relocated to board at his uncle’s at 15 after being accepted by Eastern Ranges in the Talent League. By the end of the year, Sydney came knocking with an offer to join their Academy program. He was named captain of the Academy team in his first season there and invited to the National Draft Combine. He was seen as the standout Academy prospect of the 2021 draft and was expected to be taken by the Swans.

Until he wasn’t.

After overlooking him, Sydney then offered to effectively make him an “unofficial” player, keeping him in the VFL Swans, and having him train with and be managed by the senior club, rather than the Academy. Special permission was even sought to allow him to play for the senior team in a preseason match against GWS in Albury – the only uncontracted player to feature that day.

His VFL performances continued to impress, his outings in the Talent League looked a level above and from four appearances in the U18 National Championships for the Allies, he was named among the bests on each occasion.

And then he fell off the face of the Earth. I’m not sure what happened, but after the Championships he doesn’t get invited to the National Draft Combine, gets overlooked in the draft again and is suddenly packing his bags to join Sturt in the SANFL.

We’re talking about a 190cm midfield bull, with good hands, who runs both ways, posted a 2km time of 6:14 a year earlier and lead the midfield for the Allies at the National Championships – something doesn’t add up there…

Anyway, his tutelage continued at Sturt, developing his outside game to make him a more complete player. A year in the reserves was followed by a year on the wing in the seniors. And this year, it has all come together. Playing on-ball for a dominant Double Blues team that has lost just the one game all year, A.Anderson has averaged 25.6 disposals, 4.1 clearances, 5.8 tackles, 6.5 inside 50s and a goal per game over past month, including finals.

His form has been recognised in being named in the SANFL Team of the Year for 2025.

He has too much talent to not be playing AFL.



Donovan Toohey (Coburg)
185cm, 84kg, 04/2000 (25 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

The only player identified in our “T.McCarthy” model that has not had any current or previous affiliation with an AFL club in either of the past two years. He is also arguably the best kick that exists outside of the AFL.

A relative latecomer due to his prior split commitments with cricket – representing Vic Metro U19s as a wicketkeeper – and only made the decision to start fully pursuing football in 2022.

Consequently, won Fitzroy’s (with whom he has strong family ties) best and fairest in 2023, and in 2024 received the call-up to go from amateur to VFL with Coburg.

A midfielder at Fitzroy, he was moved into defence at the Burgers to make full use of his elite disposal on the rebound and he hasn’t looked back since.

In 2025 he was the only player among the second-tier competitions to average over 20 kicks per game and maintain a disposal efficiency above 75%. He led the VFL in rebounds per game (8.5), in addition to averaging 30.0 disposals and 5.6 contested possessions each game. Named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

The other thing about D.Toohey is that he appears to be a player that steps up to the level that he is exposed to. He made the jump from ammos to VFL without issue. Two years in succession he has been Coburg’s best afield in clashes against the National Academy side. His best performances this season have been against opponents that are loaded with AFL-listed players. With his ability to accumulate possession and execute quickly and to advantage by foot he is made for the way that AFL is now being played.



Cooper Craig-Peters (Footscray VFL)
180cm, 76kg, 10/11/2001 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

Also identified on the “T.McCarthy” model, C.Craig-Peters is a former Bulldogs NGA who was overlooked at the draft but has continued to impress at Footscray VFL, where he is vice-captain and reigning best and fairest winner.

Often shunted between roles on-ball, wing and up forward due to the stacked ranks of the Bulldogs’ midfield, CCP has still averaged 22.9 disposals, 12.5 contested possessions, 6.9 clearances, 7.1 tackles and 4.7 score involvements per game – with a disposal efficiency of 77%. It was enough to see him named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

Driven and focussed, in addition to playing for Footscray VFL, he works full time as a stonemason and is completing a Bachelor of Criminology. His favourite player growing up was Ben Cousins.

A player who is hard at the contest, has explosive pace, is defensively accountable and uses the ball very well – what is not to like about that? The only mark against him is his diminutive size – which hasn’t been a factor at VFL level – and he has demonstrated that he is very capable of succeeding on the outside as wing or a forward that pushes up the ground.

He presents a potential array of attributes that are sorely lacking in the current West Coast AFL squad.




There is the list for 2025, hopefully some of them make their way to the club and improve it.