Victoria Derby

[__Ron_]

The main players

Marching
Villain
Littorio
Kibbutz
Barbaricus


Marching for mine is home. Was just to impressive in the AAMI Vase to not win the Derby. In fact i think it's one of the most dominating lead up races iv'e ever seen for any race.

Villain struggled last start. Looks another one of those one paced but keeps coming types that people seem to fall in love with.

Littorio ran on strongly from well back in the same race as Villain. I was on him in the Derby until i saw the Vase and then i realised i saw the wrong form race.

Barbaricus tries hard but clearly hes no match for Marching although he'll never be far away

Kibbutz is the new boom horse. Last and 20 wide, look at the ground he made up!! .. blah, blah.... The simple fact is, he'll be spotting Marching a head start again like all these horses and not at any stage did he look like winning last start.

These are all sit sprinters so tactics will play a part but looking at Marchings last 2 runs i honestly cannot see how the rest of these can outsprint him. He should settle close, ping to the lead around the final bend and quickly put up 4 or 5 lengths on them, seriously.

... and that will end the Hawkes/Ingham reign.


I'm going to take a few days off, so see you guys at the the business end of the week. Feel free to ramp up whatever horses you guys like but don't feel to bad when the race is over within the twinkling of an eye....

 

[year of the cat]

I reckon you're right - even when you look at Kibbutz through rose coloured glasses he still lost by three lengths to Marching. The only query is that Kibbutz is learning the caper pretty quickly - don't know whether it will be quick enough to win on Saturday.

Don't know what to make of Villain/Littorio - the Flemington form of Turnbull Stakes day has to be dismissed following the Cox Plate.

 

[Ron]

I'll be on Marching.
Surprised he didn't start as fave on Saturday, i couldn't really see him losing.

$4.40 atm, but i suspect he will come in under $4 before the weekend.

 

[The Dustbin]

I backed Marching on Sat. but am switching to Kibbutz in the Derby. I feel the 2500m and Flem will suit him down to a tee.

 

[The Dustbin]

Marching remains firm, but Kibbutz is now outright fav. Been well supported today.

 

[Yaaablett]

Villain for mine. Marching was very good but I have great doubts about the extra trip. Kibbutz was a good run as well. Villains explosive win 2 starts ago was outstanding. His run last time was (on reflection) very good. The race was run at a farcical pace and he was coming over the top of them at the end. Barriers will be important but I feel that if he draws ok he's the one.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Barbaricus is heading to the paddock and wont run in it.

I thought Marching's performance on Saturday would have put him outright favourite for the Derby, but I suppose there is still a question about the distance. I will be on him at whatever odds. Hawkes/Ingham combo one more time..

 

[sethlad]

Davcon has a throat infection & is going for a spell too.

seth

 

[BertRito]

I'm still impressed with Lottorio's run last start, so the further he drifts the happier I will be I think.

 

[ormond-allen]

yeah Villain was impressive 2 starts back, but there are question marks from that race ie the track that day, and the horses he beat.
Of the beaten brigade that day, Bammagera($15) and Down Under Boy($21) are the shortest priced runners in the Derby.
You can only beat whats put in front of you, but I reckon the Vase form is the one to follow, obvious picks being Marching and Kibbutz.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

yeah Villain was impressive 2 starts back, but there are question marks from that race ie the track that day, and the horses he beat.
Of the beaten brigade that day, Bammagera($15) and Down Under Boy($21) are the shortest priced runners in the Derby.
You can only beat whats put in front of you, but I reckon the Vase form is the one to follow, obvious picks being Marching and Kibbutz.

Not sure what your saying about your justification.
You do realise Down Under Boy ran 4th in the Vase on Saturday?
He also beat Villain home in the Norman Robinson the previous Saturday, maybe thats the better form reference for potting Villain.

 

[__Ron_]

Victoria Derby REAL odds after more reflection

Marching - 1/2on - 1.50
Villain - 7/4 - 2.75
Littorio -16/1 - 16.00
Kibbutz - 20/1 - 20.00
Down Under Boy - 50/1 - 50.00
Stockade - 100/1 - 100.00
Najib - 400/1 - 400.00
Best Beware - 400/1 - 400.00

 

[Ron]

I'll go e/w on kibbutz at those odds.
I don't think he'll win, i reckon Marching will, but Kibbutz will probably run on again and might get a place.

 

[plays tall 1]

The barrier will be very important, especially for Marching.

It seems that he has the major advantage of being able to take up a good position if he draws well. Not sure if Villain Kibbutz and Littorio can do the same.

There was an interesting article in the Age about Marching's bloodlines, which suggested he should get the trip. While most by Commands are sprinters, the article noted that Commands is a full brother to Danewin, who is a good sire of stayers. What's more Marching's dam is by Quest for Fame, the English Derby winner.

The other thing to consider is how the track plays. If it's like last year on Derby Day I'd want to be on Marching for sure - if he draws a barrier.

 

[Ted]

I'm on Husonic. Has been improving each run, bad ride by Oliver in Geelong but it ran on well, McEvoy will be steering in the Derby and I think it's a good chance at generous odds.

 

[Chattanooga]

I think it is clearly out of Villain & Kibbutz, with a slight leaning to Kibbutz at the journey.

Marching was well suited at the Valley but it will be a different matter at Flemington. Would be surprised if it ran a place.

Best of the others - Stockade.

 

[True_Believer]

I am also going to go with Villian. His last run was better than it looked, and the 2500m/Flemington factor is in his favour.

 

[Yaaablett]

The barrier will be very important, especially for Marching.

It seems that he has the major advantage of being able to take up a good position if he draws well. Not sure if Villain Kibbutz and Littorio can do the same.

There was an interesting article in the Age about Marching's bloodlines, which suggested he should get the trip. While most by Commands are sprinters, the article noted that Commands is a full brother to Danewin, who is a good sire of stayers. What's more Marching's dam is by Quest for Fame, the English Derby winner.

The other thing to consider is how the track plays. If it's like last year on Derby Day I'd want to be on Marching for sure - if he draws a barrier.

Marching's dam is Step who is by Grand Lodge not Quest For Fame. In this country Grand Lodge has been very versatile siring the outstanding Shogun Lodge as well as an Oaks winner from memory. However Step and her family have produced essentially sprinter/milers with Crawl, Gait etc. Just because Commands and Danewin are full brothers does not mean they possess all of the same genes. I cant recall a single Commands that could get a trip. Marching may be the first. On pedigree he shouldn't get the trip. The great thing about racing is that nothing is certain though. Miss Andretti really shouldn't be a great sprinter, Lazer Sharp and Blutigeroo really shouldn't be stayers. Maybe Marching can do it.

 

[__Ron_]

Field for the big one....

7-03.00 AAMI VICTORIA DERBY (2500 METRES)
Of $1500000 and $10000 trophies. *** $900000 and trophies of $8000 to owner $1000 to trainer $1000 to jockey, 2nd $270000, 3rd $135000, 4th $67500, 5th $37500, 6th $30000, 7th $30000, 8th $30000.
For Three-Years-Old. Set Weights. (GROUP 1).
This race carries a SUPER VOBIS Nominators Bonus of $10,000 for qualified horses.
No Allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 16 + 4 EM
No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Handicapper Rating
1 MARCHING John Hawkes D Oliver 55.5 99
2 DOWN UNDER BOY John Symons & Sheila Laxon B Shinn 55.5 82
3 VILLAIN Danny O'Brien S W Arnold 55.5 82
4 KIBBUTZ (NZ) David Hayes C Williams 55.5 88
5 STOCKADE Lee Freedman C Brown 55.5 82
6 HUSONIC Lee Freedman K McEvoy 55.5 73
7 BAMMAGERA Mick Price C Newitt 55.5 70
8 BEST BEWARE Lindsey Smith W A Pike 55.5 69
9 BARACHETTA Dean Lawson N Rawiller 55.5 63
10 GALAXY LAD Mick Price M Rodd 55.5 66
11 LITTORIO Nigel Blackiston D Nikolic 55.5 66
12 MUFASA Pat Carey R McLeod 55.5 60
13 GALILEO FIGARO Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston G Childs 55.5 53

 

[Benny_]

13 GALILEO FIGARO Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston G Childs 55.5 53

Couldnt even win a Benalla maiden yesterday

 

[The Dustbin]

Only a bad luck will beat Kibbutz.

 

[__Ron_]

Only a bad luck will beat Kibbutz.

I believe hes a good chance to not run in the first 3.

 

[Benny_]

I like Stockade at $11

 

[master bate]

Does anyone have a decent replay of the AAMI Vase, because TVN just have the channel 9 replay with the helicopter camera and then the panning shot down the straight, it makes it hard to judge kibbutz's run and marching's as well.

 

[The Dustbin]

I believe hes a good chance to not run in the first 3.

You can say that about 12 other runners .