Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

[Inspecta Gadget]

What about the rebel parents who during the day use their 6 year old as an excuse to go to the playground and meet up with numerous other friends/family with 6 year olds and ends up as a gathering of 20?

We need to ban walking the dog as well

 

[Bazzar]

We need to ban walking the dog as well

Apparently mothers with young children should be confined to their homes for 23 hours a day.
Outstanding for mental and physical health of the mother and child.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

Nature Communications journal? French Guiana?

Swing and a miss.

Since when is Nature Communications a miss given it's part of the Nature group of journals? It has an impact factor of 12.124, is peer reviewed, etc

French Guiana being a place where the virus was likely to run rampant and was able to reel it in, although to be fair they're now struggling with Delta.

But since you need another one: France

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-curfew-france-california-ohio-1.5866808

I'm quite happy to note the jury is out on just how effective a curfew is, that there are obviously other factors that contribute to curbing COVID, etc. But the insinuation this is only been introduced as some evil plot is asinine - there have been many countries around the world that have introduced curfews - a cursory glance notes Canada, the US, France

Which COVID-19 Test Should You Get? And More FAQs

Read about the types of COVID-19 tests and how they differ.

www.healthline.com

Now since I actually enjoy the back and forth here's one that notes a potential side effect of curfews

Side effect of a 6 p.m curfew for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling study from Toulouse, France - PubMed

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting disease Covid-19 has killed over 2 million people as of January 22, 2021. We have designed a model and used it to quantify the effect of a 6 p.m curfew on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Toulouse, France. The data show that this measure can lead to the...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

So that would be something to watch for.

 

[HPKS]

Redirect Notice

 

[Rusty Brookes]

And when do you actually think this will get announced, because now that they have said that 18-39 year olds can go off and get AZ if they choose then i would think that means that everyone now has the chance to go get the vaccine.

They will never announce it, you will never be told that there is more than enough vaccines to go around as of now.

Given there are still huge queues at vaccination centres I doubt we're anywhere near that number. When demands drops off, then you'll get an idea.

 

[Fryman]

wow, such a response, you've convinced me.

While we're at it, you see that bottle of bleach over there? I'm no expert but it will definitely protect you from covid if you go and drink it.

The government is restricting you from leaving the house and your response isn’t
“Let’s see the data behind making the decision” but “I’m no expert so it must be right”. It’s pathetic how you desperately need to cede to authority.

 

[Toump Ass]

I don't understand how curfews decrease the chance of community transmission.

If the supermarkets are open less hours but the same amount of people are shopping in them, you're more likely to be exposed to the virus, and there’s less space in the supermarkets because there’s more people in them too.

But it makes the cops jobs easier so who cares about safety, right?
Like their job is hard anyway. Find a black person, and fine them. Easy as piss!

Anyway I read that you will still be allowed out of the house to exercise outside of the curfew, which is great, but I’m not sure where I read that is reliable. I hope I can exercise outside of curfew otherwise i might not be able to at all, and that would be absolutely ****ed.

 

[HTT]

I don't understand how curfews decrease the chance of community transmission.

If the supermarkets are open less hours but the same amount of people are shopping in them, you're more likely to be exposed to the virus, and there’s less space in the supermarkets because there’s more people in them too.

But it makes the cops jobs easier so who cares about safety, right?
Like their job is hard anyway. Find a black person, and fine them. Easy as piss!

Anyway I read that you will still be allowed out of the house to exercise outside of the curfew, which is great, but I’m not sure where I read that is reliable. I hope I can exercise outside of curfew otherwise i might not be able to at all, and that would be absolutely f’ed.

Slightly more crowded supermarkets is significantly less problematic than household gatherings - the latter is targeted by the curfew.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

I don't understand how curfews decrease the chance of community transmission.

If the supermarkets are open less hours but the same amount of people are shopping in them, you're more likely to be exposed to the virus, and there’s less space in the supermarkets because there’s more people in them too.

But it makes the cops jobs easier so who cares about safety, right?
Like their job is hard anyway. Find a black person, and fine them. Easy as piss!

Anyway I read that you will still be allowed out of the house to exercise outside of the curfew, which is great, but I’m not sure where I read that is reliable. I hope I can exercise outside of curfew otherwise i might not be able to at all, and that would be absolutely f’ed.

I think it's also part of contact tracing. Not just transmission.

I also think it's just a way to make it slightly harder for people to find loopholes in the existing rules.

To be honest though, if I'm not allowed out to dinner or to visit people anyway - it doesn't make any difference if I'm not allowed out to dinner or to visit people after 9pm!

 

[Inspecta Gadget]

When are they announcing the mandatory two minutes hate?

 

[Toump Ass]

Slightly more crowded supermarkets is significantly less problematic than household gatherings - the latter is targeted by the curfew.

Household gatherings are already banned, so we know the people who are having household gatherings don't follow rules.
Personally I'm not going to catch COVID at a household gathering, because I don't go to household gatherings.
But I do have to leave the house for work, and now my chances of coming into contact with COVID have now increased.

So as well as being punished for other people not following the rules, I now also am more likely to catch the virus as well.





I don't know why people don't think this curfew stuff is just plain ****ing stupid.

 

[JB1975]

When are they announcing the mandatory two minutes hate?

Will 2 minutes be enough for you?

 

[Inspecta Gadget]

Will 2 minutes be enough for you?

I'd need 2 lifetimes

 

[Alesana]

Yes we should be going as we are until 80%. With premiers shutting their god damn busy mouths about lockdowns and restrictions in 2022. Give people and businesses some hope for the future.
Then once we hit 80% and everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated, it’s time to open up and we then start working towards normality.

What if we only get to say 70% because the remaining don't want the jab?

 

[HTT]

[

Household gatherings are already banned, so we know the people who are having household gatherings don't follow rules.
Personally I'm not going to catch COVID at a household gathering, because I don't go to household gatherings.
But I do have to leave the house for work, and now my chances of coming into contact with COVID have now increased.

So as well as being punished for other people not following the rules, I now also am more likely to catch the virus as well.





I don't know why people don't think this curfew stuff is just plain ******* stupid.

It’s an enforcement tool and has minimal effect on the great majority of the law-abiding public.

There are bugger all good reasons to be outside of your home after 9pm while in lockdown - what could you possibly be doing? But there’s enough excuses that make it difficult to actually nab people for it.

Unless cops are door knocking and finding illegal gatherings, how will they know? Even though it may be obvious at the time a person driving home has broken the rules, how do you prove it?

With the curfew, the burden of proof switched. The person was outside of their house after 9pm. If they can’t prove they had a valid reason, they are gone.

For almost all of the rest of us, it won’t have an impact, there’s nothing to do after 9pm.

 

[Del203211]

What if we only get to say 70% because the remaining don't want the jab?

Time to move on in some capacity once everyone has been offered the jab. Can’t keep closing down and locking down businesses because 30% don’t want the vaccine. Vaccine passports for any venues will come into affect too which will be handy.

 

[Bazzar]

"Giving evidence to MPs on Tuesday, Prof Sir Andrew Pollard said the fact that vaccines did not stop the spread of Covid meant reaching the threshold for overall immunity in the population was “mythical”.

“The problem with this virus is [it is] not measles. If 95% of people were vaccinated against measles, the virus cannot transmit in the population,” he told the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus.

“The Delta variant will still infect people who have been vaccinated. And that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated at some point will meet the virus … and we don’t have anything that will [completely] stop that transmission.”

Delta variant renders herd immunity from Covid ‘mythical’

Head of Oxford Vaccine Group rules out overall immunity, but also questions need for booster jabs

www.theguardian.com

 

[HTT]

What if we only get to say 70% because the remaining don't want the jab?

Seems unlikely we will only get to 70%

Vaccine Hesitancy Tracker

Vaccine Hesitancy Tracker

melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au

Only around 12% of people are unwilling to be vaccinated, while 9.8% are unsure.

In NSW where there is a significant outbreak it’s even lower, just 9.2% unwilling to be vaccinated, 8.1% unsure.

 

[HTT]

"Giving evidence to MPs on Tuesday, Prof Sir Andrew Pollard said the fact that vaccines did not stop the spread of Covid meant reaching the threshold for overall immunity in the population was “mythical”.

“The problem with this virus is [it is] not measles. If 95% of people were vaccinated against measles, the virus cannot transmit in the population,” he told the all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus.

“The Delta variant will still infect people who have been vaccinated. And that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated at some point will meet the virus … and we don’t have anything that will [completely] stop that transmission.”

Delta variant renders herd immunity from Covid ‘mythical’

Head of Oxford Vaccine Group rules out overall immunity, but also questions need for booster jabs

www.theguardian.com

What’s your plan baz?

 

[Toump Ass]

It’s an enforcement tool and has minimal effect on the great majority of the law-abiding public.

I disagree. It has a huge impact on a great number of the law-abiding public.

Closing playgrounds is another "enforcement tool" that has a huge impact. And it's also ridiculous.
If the transmission risk is parents not wearing masks or social distancing, why not enforce that? Is it really that much harder for a police officer to check if the slide is being used than to check if there's a birthday party happening at the local park?

Of course the enforcement of these laws will inevitably affect minority groups in disproportionate numbers, as usual, so I guess that's one positive?

There are bugger all good reasons to be outside of your home after 9pm while in lockdown - what could you possibly be doing?

Exercise, shopping, travelling to see friends or family for compassionate reasons/caregiving...

 

[Alesana]

Seems unlikely we will only get to 70%

Vaccine Hesitancy Tracker

Vaccine Hesitancy Tracker

melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au

Only around 12% of people are unwilling to be vaccinated, while 9.8% are unsure.

In NSW where there is a significant outbreak it’s even lower, just 9.2% unwilling to be vaccinated, 8.1% unsure.

Unless I'm missing something, the numbers you've mentioned are very different to the numbers in that link. "Compared to 2 weeks ago, hesitancy has slightly increased in NSW (from 14.6% to 17.3%) and in SA (from 23.9% to 26.3%), but remained the same in Victoria (23.6%) and WA (21%). Queensland was the only state where vaccine hesitancy has fallen, from 30.8% to 26.8%. "

Edit: I see you're looking at 'unwilling to be vaccinated' rather than those hesitant overall

 

[Visions]

What if we only get to say 70% because the remaining don't want the jab?

They have said that at current trends 80% will be reached by December. If it does get to the stage where vaccine hesitancy is evident and people don’t want the shots, then say come end of year it should be a change of policy, open up fully and the onus of risk lies with the unvaccinated, be it risking death from the virus or restricting things like travel for them via vaccine passports.

 

[HTT]

I disagree. It has a huge impact on a great number of the law-abiding public.

Closing playgrounds is another "enforcement tool" that has a huge impact. And it's also ridiculous.
If the transmission risk is parents not wearing masks or social distancing, why not enforce that? Is it really that much harder for a police officer to check if the slide is being used than to check if there's a birthday party happening at the local park?

Of course the enforcement of these laws will inevitably affect minority groups in disproportionate numbers, as usual, so I guess that's one positive?

Exercise, shopping, travelling to see friends or family for compassionate reasons/caregiving...

I’m sure the majority of people already fulfil their needs within the 5am-9pm bracket. Of course there’s always a few who may be affected unintentionally and I support them in hopefully getting some sort of workable exemption to the rule. But that doesn’t make me oppose the rule.

 

[Alesana]

They have said that at current trends 80% will be reached by December. If it does get to the stage where vaccine hesitancy is evident and people don’t want the shots, then say come end of year it should be a change of policy, open up fully and the onus of risk lies with the unvaccinated, be it risking death from the virus or restricting things like travel for them via vaccine passports.

I think we should be opening up once everyone has had the chance to get the vaccine then instead of waiting for a quota to be hit.

 

[theyellowsash]

Time to move on in some capacity once everyone has been offered the jab. Can’t keep closing down and locking down businesses because 30% don’t want the vaccine. Vaccine passports for any venues will come into affect too which will be handy.

what about people who cant get the vaccine for an actual reason? like allergies or other disorders? or children?

if the jab isnt mandatory, then it should at least be mandatory for a whole raft of things (work, watching/playing sports, visiting hospital, going on planes etc). keep the antivax lowlifes away from everyone else.