Toast WalshWatch 2019

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#51
I went to the Anzac Day game and watched McGrath. He really underwhelmed. Shirked multiple contests, had the yips and turned it over under pressure. Taranto far superior. Walsh in another league.

This Rozee garbage is all anti Carlton hate again.

They know we're coming.
Hasn’t really improved since year 1 either.

Seems like a nice guy, but his ceiling is far smaller than I originally thought. He’s got nice pace, but he’s not express quick. His kicking skills are just average too.

Just doesn’t seem to have much killer instinct.
 

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Jabba73

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#54
You know I rated others ahead of him long term, but have always said he is the best bust proof kid I have seen in some time, will be Mr Consistency

Floor Cotchin, ceiling Whitfield

While picking the best player at every pick is a bonus, the goal is not having a bust, especially in the first 3 rounds

From our draft picks between 2007 - 2014, only Cripps and Kruezer are still on an AFL list (2E the only other player, taken as a free hit)

Confident that our drafting ( and the majority of our trades, given what we gave up) from 2015 are on another level
Still question our development of players during 2007-2014, we can’t have been so poor at recruiting we only picked 2 AFL quality players out of 20-40 attempts. Random dart throwing at a list of names would be more successful.

If our current list was being mentored by the same people as back then, would we be seeing the rapid improvement we are, or would we be looking to delist at least half of them? If our list from back then had the current people in charge, would we be challenging for a flag right now?

Chicken and egg argument, both are important
 

El Topo

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#57
Hasn’t really improved since year 1 either.

Seems like a nice guy, but his ceiling is far smaller than I originally thought. He’s got nice pace, but he’s not express quick. His kicking skills are just average too.

Just doesn’t seem to have much killer instinct.
His temperament reminds me of Cotchin and like Trent he needs to develop a nasty edge as he matures in order to go to the next level
 

Arr0w

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#58
Still question our development of players during 2007-2014, we can’t have been so poor at recruiting we only picked 2 AFL quality players out of 20-40 attempts. Random dart throwing at a list of names would be more successful.

If our current list was being mentored by the same people as back then, would we be seeing the rapid improvement we are, or would we be looking to delist at least half of them? If our list from back then had the current people in charge, would we be challenging for a flag right now?

Chicken and egg argument, both are important
Personally I think it was more talent identification, given most were never picked up by other clubs

Although, both aspects have improved dramatically
 

CFC18

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#59
Personally I think it was more talent identification, given most were never picked up by other clubs

Although, both aspects have improved dramatically
How often are they though - junior form is certainly a consideration but if a player has had 2-4 years of showing little on an AFL list, it's unlikely clubs will use a valuable list spot when there are so many other options available to them.

Even our most skilled players like Gibbs, Yarran, and to a lesser extent Murph, never realised their full potential imo. I think our development was just shithouse. Swap the years Lucas and Cuningham were drafted for instance and I reckon we'd be viewing both very differently.
 

CFC18

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#60
Going by that Rozee has had a very similar above average output vs expectation, highlighting that the comparisons are certainly reasonable. Walsh's consistency will win out though I feel, and Rozee will likely come right back into the pack as time goes on before having a breakout year in several years time.
 

Mr_Plow

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#61
Going by that Rozee has had a very similar above average output vs expectation, highlighting that the comparisons are certainly reasonable. Walsh's consistency will win out though I feel, and Rozee will likely come right back into the pack as time goes on before having a breakout year in several years time.
Expecting Rozee to hit a wall by mid year. Didnt have a great run last year with injury IIRC, so may feel the pinch soon.
 

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Arr0w

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#62
How often are they though - junior form is certainly a consideration but if a player has had 2-4 years of showing little on an AFL list, it's unlikely clubs will use a valuable list spot when there are so many other options available to them.

Even our most skilled players like Gibbs, Yarran, and to a lesser extent Murph, never realised their full potential imo. I think our development was just shithouse. Swap the years Lucas and Cuningham were drafted for instance and I reckon we'd be viewing both very differently.
No doubt development plays a part, but many cases where a player goes from one club to another and still performs to a similar level, ie Grigg

IMHO, we overreached, for players, prior to SOS

As an example someone like Boekhorst was a 4th rounder at best
 

BluStreak

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#63
The KC argument is that a forward has a direct opponent who's job is to nullify them. Whereas a Mid with the 666 structure does not. It is a very much an over simplification of thought.
Yes a forward will have a direct opponent but so does a mid. The 666 structure is only for center bounces, not around the ground, so a mid will be matched up.
Connor is excelling at the moment and deserves to be in the RS conversation. However he is not receiving the best defender is he as he is not playing a key forward role.
The mere thought that playing as a mid is easier than as a forward is fundamentally a biased opinion with no foundation and in my opinion shows a lack of knowledge.
 

mediumsizered

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#64
I have to agree with this. Whatever the Carlron player does well seems to magically be the opposite of what is "hard" or "important" in any given year.

You can bet your life that if Rozee played for Carlton and Walsh played for - any other team - the narrative would look vastly different.

"Rozee is promising, but putting in a few cameos each game and getting some cheap kicks in the forward line can't compete with the consistent, hard, contested midfield role that Walsh performs week in, week out."

Something like that?

So many carlron haters in the media. Sometimes I think they don't even realize how biased they are being - it's like a subconscious bias.

If Walsh and Rozee both keep up current form then Rozee will win it. He shouldn't, but he will.
There is nothing subconscious about the bias. It is just the norm throughout most media where reporting of news has been replaced by self indulgent opinion pieces, written by opinion writers (they are definitely not journos) who are constantly spouting their own beliefs/agendas.
 

ferrisb

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#65
Let's not undersell Rozee either though, I don't recall seeing a first year player having his level of output and xfactor for some time either. He and Cuningham would be a pretty exciting duo up forward. Certainly deserves his praise, and to be considered a real RS chance.
Yeah, I don't mind the media pumping up Rozee's tyres.

Rozee has been very good. As good as Walsh so far? I don't think so. Will he likely put in a body or work this year as impressive as Walsh? Probably not.

But the media needs a narrative. Running with Walsh the shoe-in for 22 weeks gets boring.

Walsh will win the RS if he keeps up his form. And if he doesn't? Whatevs. He's got bigger fish (AA, premierships, brownlow?, captain) to fry down the track.
 
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ferrisb

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#67
Seen a lot of comparisons of Walsh to Joel Selwood.

They never seemed right to me; Selwood is this super-tough, strong inside general. Walsh is inside-out, uber-efficient, with elite running and off-the-charts footy IQ. More like Cotchin++ (Arr0w TM).

BUT then I looked at some stats - keeping in mind Joel Selwood was one of the great 'off-the-bat' recruits of recent times, averaging 19, 25 and 27 in his first three seasons in spectacular Geelong sides.

Walsh is getting more of the ball vs Selwood (no surprise).... but the interesting thing is Walsh is winning more contested ball than Selwood did in his first year.....not just per game, but a higher contested/uncontested split (contested out of total possessions). Comfortably more clearances too. Although less tackles.

From memory, Sam Walsh was super impressive in his u18 underage year. But he was almost purely outside. His inside game was a 'new trick' he added in 2018 (as you do). Surprisingly, Walsh is averaging a higher contested possession split than Selwood did in any of his first four seasons!

Now this is not about who is better Sam Walsh or Joel Selwood or even meant to be a direct comparison. BUT I do want to point out (to myself mostly) that while Selwood was an instant gun, he developed into the player he is today over time. Walsh is just 18yo. He could be anything. Joel Selwood 2.0. Trent Cotchin 2.0. Or perhaps even better still, Sam Walsh 1.0.....
 

ferrisb

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#68
Don't understand the care factor tbh as if media opines are going to have one iota impact on performance.
Actually, I think media opines will have an impact on performance.

Walsh is the kind of player to take doubts, criticisms, setbacks and missing out on awards and add them to the relentless drive he has to be the best player he can be.

Not what you meant, but..... :p
 

Mr_Plow

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#69
Seen a lot of comparisons of Walsh to Joel Selwood.

They never seemed right to me; Selwood is this super-tough, strong inside general. Walsh is inside-out, uber-efficient, with elite running and off-the-charts footy IQ. More like Cotchin++ (Arr0w TM).

BUT then I looked at some stats - keeping in mind Joel Selwood was one of the great 'off-the-bat' recruits of recent times, averaging 19, 25 and 27 in his first three seasons in spectacular Geelong sides.

Walsh is getting more of the ball vs Selwood (no surprise).... but the interesting thing is Walsh is winning more contested ball than Selwood did in his first year.....not just per game, but a higher contested/uncontested split (contested out of total possessions). Comfortably more clearances too. Although less tackles.

From memory, Sam Walsh was super impressive in his u18 underage year. But he was almost purely outside. His inside game was a 'new trick' he added in 2018 (as you do). Surprisingly, Walsh is averaging a higher contested possession split than Selwood did in any of his first four seasons!

Now this is not about who is better Sam Walsh or Joel Selwood or even meant to be a direct comparison. BUT I do want to point out (to myself mostly) that while Selwood was an instant gun, he developed into the player he is today over time. Walsh is just 18yo. He could be anything. Joel Selwood 2.0. Trent Cotchin 2.0. Or perhaps even better still, Sam Walsh 1.0.....
Certainly did not see his contested game developing this quickly. Raises his ceiling in terms of the player he can become to more of a mix between Simon Black (the silky skills + understanding of time and space) and Joel Selwood (relentless attitude, willingness to put body on the line and outstanding leadership qualities), which would be pretty handy.

I think he will be comfortably better than Cotchin over his career, and I don't understand the Whitfield comparisons since run, carry and breaking the lines isn't yet a feature of Sammy's game.
 

JustaBattler

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#71
Cotchin is under rated by a lot of people on this forum -he has been an absolute champion player and captain for Richmond and continues to be. Cotchin's embracing of a harder edge I reckon had as much to do with Richmond's success as Dustbin.

If any of our fancied midget bodied mids can be 3/4 as good as Cotchin has been they will have had a very good career - so far zero evidence of that - except maybe from Walsh - but Walsh will have to be able to become an onfield general and someone who can kick a goal from 50 as Cotchin did every game in his younger days - I look forward to the day when one of our definite future champion AA mids (ex Cripps) can hurt an opponent with fair tackle or take someone out with some smart mongrel.
 

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#72
Playing Devils Advocate here, but is anyone concerned that Walsh may not have much more of a ceiling? Granted, if we got 250 games out of him at a 10-15% increase on his current form, that would be amazing, but what if he can improve by 30% or 50% or even more?! Is that possible given what he is doing right now?
 

Mr_Plow

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#73
Playing Devils Advocate here, but is anyone concerned that Walsh may not have much more of a ceiling? Granted, if we got 250 games out of him at a 10-15% increase on his current form, that would be amazing, but what if he can improve by 30% or 50% or even more?! Is that possible given what he is doing right now?
Given that he is already performing to the quality of a 40-60th ranked player in the AFL, even a 15% increase in performance would have him in the top 10 players in the competition.

This is going by numerical data from AFL player ratings.

A 30% increase in performance would have his impact alongside Dangerfield and Martin as a top 3 player...

He is winning contested ball with his light frame at such an unprecedented rate. We always knew his outside game would be elite. Now consider him with 5kg of extra lean muscle.

His ceiling is best player in the competition, there is no doubt.
 

4thchicken

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#74
Playing Devils Advocate here, but is anyone concerned that Walsh may not have much more of a ceiling? Granted, if we got 250 games out of him at a 10-15% increase on his current form, that would be amazing, but what if he can improve by 30% or 50% or even more?! Is that possible given what he is doing right now?
Not fussed at all as I think there is plenty of development left in him. At a minimum, I'd expect walsh to
  • gain several kgs of muscle (more powerful in contests, harder to tackle)
  • get fitter with additional pre-seasons (more kms run/game, more kms at high speed, greater repeat efforts)
  • improve disposal rating (skill development, less rushed with more time at the level)
  • become more damaging with the ball (game plan, team development, familiarisation of player habits)
  • captain the club
Interesting if you look at his current stats over the first 6 games and his development since the U18 comp
  • Disposals - 24, 25, 28, 28, 26, 27 - average 26.3 (clear trend up with 25.6 in first 3 games -> 27.0 in next 3)
  • Turnovers - 7, 8, 4, 4, 2, 5 - average 5.0 (clear trend down with average 6.3 in first 3 games -> 3.7 in next 3)
  • Clangers - 6, 5, 4, 1, 2, 3 - average 3.5 (clear trend down with average 5.0 in first 3 games -> 2.0 in next 3)
  • Disposal efficiency - 54.2%, 52%, 64.3%, 78.6%, 92.3%, 70.4% - average 68.6% (clear trend up with average 56.8% in first 3 games -> 80.4% in next 3)
  • score involvements - 5, 3, 6, 7, 6, 7 - average 5.7 (clear trend up with average 4.6 in first 3 games -> 6.7 in next 3)
  • Pressure acts - 21, 19, 30, 23, 21, 20 - average 22.3 (excluding outlier, consistent)
These stats indicate a huge change in walsh's output after just 6 weeks.
Combine that with the improvement in contested ball winning ability (compared to U18) and you would expect a fair chunk of development to be demonstrated over the next 3-5 years as walsh develops (would take walsh to ≈23, most AFl players/athletes will physically peak closer to 26-28)
 
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