Opinion What are our current areas of concern or improvement required

[carlton_99]

The way we set up in the midfield for me is our biggest area of concern. Our midfielders all get sucked into the contest trying to hunt the ball. If we don't win it opposition midfielders have us outnumbered on the outside and they get an easy exit from stoppage. This is what Sidebottom did to us time and time again on Thursday night. If we win the ball we are still in trouble because all of our midfielders are within 3 metres of each other. We have nobody spreading from the contest to the outside to get a handball receive and give us a better chance of a clean inside 50 entry. Instead, it's a hurried kick under pressure.

The solution to this is to adjust Cerra and Walsh's current roles in the midfield. We do not need them to be contested/inside-heavy midfielders. Their strength is their spread from the contest and we need to use this to our advantage. Cripps/Hewett can more than hold their own on the inside. We need the like of Cerra and Walsh to be more outside which will give us cleaner entries inside 50. Elijah Hollands is another who I would like to see get some stoppage time when he is back who will also excel in this area. Plus he is a great kick inside 50 - will be a big inclusion.

Another thing I want to see improvement in is movement ahead of the ball. So many times I see us have the ball across HB and there is zero movement ahead of the ball. Same thing with our forwards when the ball is about to be delivered inside 50. We need players creating space for each other especially inside 50. This is where I think Harry/Charlie/Kemp can work well because they can create decoy leads to free each other up.

Lastly, we need to move away from the 4 talls. Weitering and Silvagni have been great this season. Pick one of Young/McGovern/Haynes as a third and that's it. Otherwise we are far too slow and it hurts our ball movement from D50. McGovern probably best suits as the third option but he is not playing well at all. Maybe Young is the pick and JSOS can play a bit more of that intercepting role and use his kicking more to our advantage.

I genuinely think this season is recoverable but we need to fix up these areas.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Another thing I want to see improvement in is movement ahead of the ball. So many times I see us have the ball across HB and there is zero movement ahead of the ball. Same thing with our forwards when the ball is about to be delivered inside 50. We need players creating space for each other especially inside 50. This is where I think Harry/Charlie/Kemp can work well because they can create decoy leads to free each other up

I'd like to try when the opposition have the ball in our d50 instead of having all 18 of ours push up past the centre, have one hold back near our goals such that if we get the ball on a break they can lead hard at the ball carrier instead of the forwards needing to race back.

 

[Blue1980]

The way we set up in the midfield for me is our biggest area of concern. Our midfielders all get sucked into the contest trying to hunt the ball. If we don't win it opposition midfielders have us outnumbered on the outside and they get an easy exit from stoppage. This is what Sidebottom did to us time and time again on Thursday night. If we win the ball we are still in trouble because all of our midfielders are within 3 metres of each other. We have nobody spreading from the contest to the outside to get a handball receive and give us a better chance of a clean inside 50 entry. Instead, it's a hurried kick under pressure.

The solution to this is to adjust Cerra and Walsh's current roles in the midfield. We do not need them to be contested/inside-heavy midfielders. Their strength is their spread from the contest and we need to use this to our advantage. Cripps/Hewett can more than hold their own on the inside. We need the like of Cerra and Walsh to be more outside which will give us cleaner entries inside 50. Elijah Hollands is another who I would like to see get some stoppage time when he is back who will also excel in this area. Plus he is a great kick inside 50 - will be a big inclusion.

Another thing I want to see improvement in is movement ahead of the ball. So many times I see us have the ball across HB and there is zero movement ahead of the ball. Same thing with our forwards when the ball is about to be delivered inside 50. We need players creating space for each other especially inside 50. This is where I think Harry/Charlie/Kemp can work well because they can create decoy leads to free each other up.

Lastly, we need to move away from the 4 talls. Weitering and Silvagni have been great this season. Pick one of Young/McGovern/Haynes as a third and that's it. Otherwise we are far too slow and it hurts our ball movement from D50. McGovern probably best suits as the third option but he is not playing well at all. Maybe Young is the pick and JSOS can play a bit more of that intercepting role and use his kicking more to our advantage.

I genuinely think this season is recoverable but we need to fix up these areas.

From here this is what I see

1. Best Case Scenario
Everything clicks—Curnow and McKay find form, midfield starts humming, game plan stabilises. We go on a 2023-style tear, finish 5th or 6th, and win a final or two.

• Result: Voss is safe. Probably gets a two-year extension through to the end of 2028.

• Likelihood: 10%


2. Worst Case Scenario
Confidence keeps crumbling, the game plan unravels further, and as often happens in these situations, the injuries pile up too. We completely fall off the cliff and finish with 3–4 wins—bottom 2 territory.
• Result: Voss gone before the bye, or worse, still coaching as a lame duck while everyone knows the writing’s on the wall. No amount of injury or misfortune would excuse a bottom 2 finish with this list.

• Likelihood: 15–20%


3. Middle Path (Most Likely)
We scrape together a couple of ugly wins over West Coast and North, maybe snag one against the Saints or pull off another upset before the bye to get to 4–7. From there, we flirt with finals but never seriously contend. We end up with 8–10 wins. Finals are mathematically gone by Round 19 or 20—a 2021-style redux.

• Result: Voss asks the club about his future around Round 19–20. The board gives him the “yeah nah” response. He resigns, and Hansen takes over as caretaker.
Alternatively, Voss coaches out the season and gets officially moved on the Monday after Round 24, just like Teague.

• I don’t see any version of this path where Voss keeps his job— unless the 8–10 wins are fuelled by a ragtag group of emerging players (e.g. the Camporeale twins, Binns, O’Keeffe, Will White) pulling off a few shock wins amidst a mountain of injuries.

• Likelihood: 60–70%

 

[DangerousD]

We have so many its hard to narrow down on what’s more important but i keep coming back to this.

We have no money, that’s the simplest of explanations, no money to target free agents in areas of need this year or the previous 4 years.

Now if we were a side who had challenged for premierships and had 1 or 2 it wouldn’t be so bad but we are not, we are struggling again after 1 good finals series and 1 where we fell in to the 8.

Our LM team have over paid our players to the point where we have no room to address needs via the trade period a FA periods.

Our rivals who have constantly finished above us and won premierships, still find a way to have $$$ to spend when the need arises.

Seperate to this, not only do we not have $$$ to address needs, we have not had many high picks over the past 4 years to balance this out and when we got one last year, we paid heavily.

I think Voss is not a good coach but im starting to think Austin and the LM team are a full mess.

 

[dylan_mike1]

All of these areas need to be strong for a team to succeed. But coaching and list management are the heavyweights for mine.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jd2010]

Why does 'a ruckman' matter? That old school train of thought is unjustifiable in today's game.

TDK & Jackson are the prototypes of what Ruck will become - I'll bet my left * on it. They are just as busy, or busier than any other Mid and have less support.

If he is currently our best player, (at least this year) and is around the contest more than any other 'mid' why not? it's not like there's 3 or 4 rucks to rotate through.

If it was a top tier Mid would you happily give up 1.7?

Top tier mids turn games and win them for their team

Tdk hasn't ever done this. He's had good games, no doubt about that.

But often his high clearance figures are paired with low disposal efficiency hacking the ball forward.

 

[Accidental genius]

Top tier mids turn games and win them for their team

Tdk hasn't ever done this. He's had good games, no doubt about that.

But often his high clearance figures are paired with low disposal efficiency hacking the ball forward.

Are you sure about this - he’s a good kick and he usually hits targets

 

[jd2010]

Are you sure about this - he’s a good kick and he usually hits targets

Kicking at 50%

Below the afl average. Well below the average of players commanding over 1.2m

 

[jd2010]

And it's not a form or new thing either. Kicks at under 55% his whole career

 

[Arr0w]

Under 57% kicking efficiency or lower

Nankervis, English, Marshall, Gawn, O'Brien

50% or lower

Sweet, TDK, McInerney

45% or Lower

Cameron, Draper, Flynn, Briggs

Wouldn't judge a ruckman's value on that measure

 

[jd2010]

Under 57% kicking efficiency or lower

Nankervis, English, Marshall, Gawn, O'Brien

50% or lower

Sweet, TDK, McInerney

45% or Lower

Cameron, Draper, Flynn, Briggs

Wouldn't judge a ruckman's value on that measure

Point was he's more than just a ruckman and should be judged like a top tier mid

Has kicking efficiency of an average ruck and a below average mid

1.2m would be silly money to offer. If that's the max we can offer we should just bluff the saints into offering more, walking away, taking a 400k ruck and going after a genuine 2nd KPD with the spare 800k

 

[Arr0w]

Point was he's more than just a ruckman and should be judged like a top tier mid

Has kicking efficiency of an average ruck and a below average mid

Genuine KPFs/Ruckmen like Jackson have better kicking efficiency, but TDK spends most of his time in the ruck, so his disposal efficiency by foot is not that much different to those types

 

[jd2010]

Genuine KPFs/Ruckmen like Jackson have better kicking efficiency, but TDK spends most of his time in the ruck, so his disposal efficiency by foot is not that much different to those types

I don't care for Jackson stat comparisons.

More than 600k on a ruckman is a waste of money, mobile or not.

 

[Arr0w]

I don't care for Jackson stat comparisons.

More than 600k on a ruckman is a waste of money, mobile or not.

Then most ruckmen are currently a waste of money

 

[jd2010]

If band 1 compo gets us a top 10 pick + we use that 1.2m on a battler ruck + real 2nd KPD we are a better side than just TDK

Top 10 pick + Leek Aleer + Ned Moyle vs TDK

 

[jd2010]

Using cricketing terms, SOS is presenting us with the biggest half volley trying to get TDK or is he bowling a doosra.

He's either luring our offer up knowing it cripples us and they'll walk away from these major offers. Leaving us offering 1.2m and TDK taking it and seeing us cooked for years. Ultimate revenge!

Or he's stupid enough to offer 1.7m to a ruckman! And we should run and take the afl compo. Which would explain our comfortability with trading a future 1st last year.

David Hale, McEvoy, Jordan Roughead, Lycett, Nank, Rhys Stanley, Darcy Cameron and Big O, all premiership ruckman on not a heap. Max Gawn the outlier in the most outlier of seasons of all time. Only time a gun ruck has been on the premiership side in the last decade. Proof is in the pudding

 

[bigm386]

I'd love to be able to say I can rely on our players at least 80% of the time to stick a tackle.

Truthfully I'm stunned if we hold on to 25% of our tackles at the moment.

 

[DirtyLeeds]

Last year's trading left me perplexed at the time, so much thrown into the "get Jagga" basket, it left us so exposed should something go wrong!?! (Hindsight is a perfect science, but it was as obvious as the proverbial dog's bollocks!!)

As has been previously mentioned we also decided to move on our 3rd and 4th highest goal scorers from '24, along with the ever-teasing JM, our ultimate X factor player.

That's a lot of goals out of the forward line, and that's what's been obviously missing in the first month of the year. Someone please remind me who did "replace" Owies, Kennedy, JM, as our extra goalkickers, aside from Kemp?

Defensively we have held our own, the mids are building but their forward entries have been rubbish, firmly believe that the likes of Owies and Martin (when available, and isn't at the moment ) might have kicked those missing goals and we wouldn't be having these conversations.....

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Last year's trading left me perplexed at the time, so much thrown into the "get Jagga" basket, it left us so exposed should something go wrong!?! (Hindsight is a perfect science, but it was as obvious as the proverbial dog's bollocks!!)

As has been previously mentioned we also decided to move on our 3rd and 4th highest goal scorers from '24, along with the ever-teasing JM, our ultimate X factor player.

That's a lot of goals out of the forward line, and that's what's been obviously missing in the first month of the year. Someone please remind me who did "replace" Owies, Kennedy, JM, as our extra goalkickers, aside from Kemp?

Defensively we have held our own, the mids are building but their forward entries have been rubbish, firmly believe that the likes of Owies and Martin (when available, and isn't at the moment ) might have kicked those missing goals and we wouldn't be having these conversations.....

There are a few glaring holes in our list... the midfield mix is the biggest one imo.

This is why they went all out for Jagga - a mid that will give us a pod. You can't rely on a strategy to pick them up with 3rd round+ draft picks. Clubs will not trade them for cheap either.

All the mids SOS drafted should have been in their prime right now and part of our core group. Walsh is the only one remaining... had they developed into what we'd hoped, we'd be flag favourites, if not, won one already.

Reality is we lost them all for next to nothing and they all cost high draft picks...

Cripps turns 30, Hewett turns 30, question marks on Cerra's hamstrings, Walsh's back...

Going for one of Jagga/FOS/Lalor/Draper was absolutely the right strategy given where we're at. ACL is just really bad luck.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Last year's trading left me perplexed at the time, so much thrown into the "get Jagga" basket, it left us so exposed should something go wrong!?! (Hindsight is a perfect science, but it was as obvious as the proverbial dog's bollocks!!)

As has been previously mentioned we also decided to move on our 3rd and 4th highest goal scorers from '24, along with the ever-teasing JM, our ultimate X factor player.

That's a lot of goals out of the forward line, and that's what's been obviously missing in the first month of the year. Someone please remind me who did "replace" Owies, Kennedy, JM, as our extra goalkickers, aside from Kemp?

Defensively we have held our own, the mids are building but their forward entries have been rubbish, firmly believe that the likes of Owies and Martin (when available, and isn't at the moment ) might have kicked those missing goals and we wouldn't be having these conversations.....

The loss of Martin can't be underestimated. Rarely got onto the park, but when he did we were a far different team. He was instrumental during the back half of 2023 in getting us all the way through to the prelim.

Cunners was as well to a lesser extent, but Martin was the difference. We basically replaced Martin, Cunners and Marchbank (all delistings) with Evans, White and Carroll. With all due respect especially to the latter two who are still finding their feet, our list is worse off talent wise than it was last year regardless of the fact that those delisted were all injury riddled.

 

[DirtyLeeds]

The loss of Martin can't be underestimated. Rarely got onto the park, but when he did we were a far different team. He was instrumental during the back half of 2023 in getting us all the way through to the prelim.

Cunners was as well to a lesser extent, but Martin was the difference. We basically replaced Martin, Cunners and Marchbank (all delistings) with Evans, White and Carroll. With all due respect especially to the latter two who are still finding their feet, our list is worse off talent wise than it was last year regardless of the fact that those delisted were all injury riddled.

I think people have forgotten how hard at the ball JM was, the smack he put on Himmelberg in the final round last year I can still hear, and believe me Harry can probably still feel it!! Haven't got anyone in the forward line that comes close to his hits anymore. Maybe Moir with some more weight, there is no mongrel in this crew, too many 'nice boys'.

 

[Ezayyak]

In 2023, when we were basically crap for half a season, we turned our season around after camp Curnow or whatever, we got our one wood up and running, the contested game. Looking back now, it seems we caught the competition off guard well into the season and our one-wood- and a firing Curnow, allowed us to get on run and into a preliminary.

Last year was an interesting case, we developed a style of play that worked for a good 2/3 of the season. We'd play a holding style for a chunk of the match before blowing the opposition away with power football for 20 min. But even during this run, we did not develop an outside game, there were no chains of handballs, overlap running of 3 or 4 players. At most it was couple bursting out of a contested situation and finding a player free. Still, as is normal in AFL footy, coaches are so well enamoured with their own styles of play, tactical analysis of the way the opposition play is pretty primitive and we were all fine until that fateful GWS game.

Either by design or fluke, Kingsley at quarter time flipped the script. Flooded out backline to counter the long bombing and rebounded hard out of defense.

Once the rest of the competition saw that they were all willing to concede the contested territory and wait for the long bombs and rebound.

The Brisbane game was the culmination of our game plan falling apart. Here was a team whose outside game was it its peak by finals team with the ability to move the ball with brilliant, instinctive chains of possessions that was clearly the work of year long training. Going 60-0 down is something you only see in under 14 football. It is unheard of at AFL level, particularly a final.

Fast forward to this year, it is clear that all teams are doing the exact same thing to us. Stay with us for a half and wait for us to tire out before turning up the screws and destroy us with movement and run.

It cannot be fixed overnight. Teams train entire summers on game plan in the hope that it all comes together pretty cohesively by mid year.

I'll end it with this. If Sam Mitchell had Curnow, Mackay, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering and TDK at his disposal where do you think we would be?

 

[No1Suspect]

100% of Development/Recruitment (deplorable skills & shocking talent identification)
100% of Coaching, which in turn reflects game plan
99% of the board and administration. (Wright excluded)

So basically the whole lot.

There's a dozen players id keep. The rest i have no care for.

 

[jd2010]

Last year's trading left me perplexed at the time, so much thrown into the "get Jagga" basket, it left us so exposed should something go wrong!?! (Hindsight is a perfect science, but it was as obvious as the proverbial dog's bollocks!!)

As has been previously mentioned we also decided to move on our 3rd and 4th highest goal scorers from '24, along with the ever-teasing JM, our ultimate X factor player.

That's a lot of goals out of the forward line, and that's what's been obviously missing in the first month of the year. Someone please remind me who did "replace" Owies, Kennedy, JM, as our extra goalkickers, aside from Kemp?

Defensively we have held our own, the mids are building but their forward entries have been rubbish, firmly believe that the likes of Owies and Martin (when available, and isn't at the moment ) might have kicked those missing goals and we wouldn't be having these conversations.....

Trading this years 1st wasn't a bad call because we had two very plausible ways to get back into this year's 1st round.

1. TDK compo
2. Trade the 2026 first which would likely be when Walkers kid gets picked early, if he doesn't pick Richmond over us

 

[Stamos]

In 2023, when we were basically crap for half a season, we turned our season around after camp Curnow or whatever, we got our one wood up and running, the contested game. Looking back now, it seems we caught the competition off guard well into the season and our one-wood- and a firing Curnow, allowed us to get on run and into a preliminary.

Last year was an interesting case, we developed a style of play that worked for a good 2/3 of the season. We'd play a holding style for a chunk of the match before blowing the opposition away with power football for 20 min. But even during this run, we did not develop an outside game, there were no chains of handballs, overlap running of 3 or 4 players. At most it was couple bursting out of a contested situation and finding a player free. Still, as is normal in AFL footy, coaches are so well enamoured with their own styles of play, tactical analysis of the way the opposition play is pretty primitive and we were all fine until that fateful GWS game.

Either by design or fluke, Kingsley at quarter time flipped the script. Flooded out backline to counter the long bombing and rebounded hard out of defense.

Once the rest of the competition saw that they were all willing to concede the contested territory and wait for the long bombs and rebound.

The Brisbane game was the culmination of our game plan falling apart. Here was a team whose outside game was it its peak by finals team with the ability to move the ball with brilliant, instinctive chains of possessions that was clearly the work of year long training. Going 60-0 down is something you only see in under 14 football. It is unheard of at AFL level, particularly a final.

Fast forward to this year, it is clear that all teams are doing the exact same thing to us. Stay with us for a half and wait for us to tire out before turning up the screws and destroy us with movement and run.

It cannot be fixed overnight. Teams train entire summers on game plan in the hope that it all comes together pretty cohesively by mid year.

I'll end it with this. If Sam Mitchell had Curnow, Mackay, Walsh, Cripps, Weitering and TDK at his disposal where do you think we would be?

I think this is a very poor reading of history.

We didn’t catch the opposition off guard in 23, they already knew our weaknesses. We were just too good once we pulled our finger out, but were coming from too far behind, were banged up and lost an interstate prelim by 16 points.

The 6 loses to end the season last year were all very different to each other.
They weren’t about us getting worked out, they were a combination of us shooting ourselves in the foot, and player availability/fitness.
When we limped into an away final against the Premiers, we decided to make 6 selection changes and have TDK as our sub.

I do however agree that Sam Mitchell would have our list playing very differently.