Analysis What doesn't work.

[fishardansin]

Ok what a win last night. What a win against Carlton a month or so ago as well.

However, both games there was a lot down in the midfield. Against Carlton is was about Carlton playing three taggers and a very good zone that made our players second guess where to go and hence cough it up a lot.

Last night West Coast were missing their best half back and a few 1st choice mids. They still managed to make a lot of our mids look ordinary. Watson did well in the end, though a lot of his possessions were up forward, which is fantastic but why did he struggle around the ball. Zaka started like a house on fire, but disappeared, Heppell and Godard struggled to have any impact on the contest at all. Stanton worked bloody hard and got plenty of it though the night. I still find my heart in my mouth when he kicks it though. Melksham was ok but not massive, Howlett worked hard and Myers was very good for the half he was on.

On top of that Ryder probably had the best rucking performance of anyone this season, so why did our mids struggle so much?

ant555, BrunoV, Bipolarbear, eth-dog and any other analysers (no mum jokes please) have an idea? Was it just rust after the bye or is our midfield easily shut down?

 

[eth-dog]

I think they finally got their forward press right. It was an immense display from them in that regard, and it was back to the best they had in 2011/12, which meant we couldn't play on from marks like we normally do.

What they did effectively was read the taps off Bellchambers in the first half really well, and then pressure us when we were blazing away from defensive 50 and get repeat inside 50's which we were resolute enough to not get blown away by. With the exception of Pears and Baguley, our defenders won their battle. Hibberd killed Schofield, although not hard, Carlisle/Hooker kept the likely Coleman medalist to 2 goals 2, and Cox/Nic Nat had no influence on the game when Hooker was on them too. Baggers had his first loss for the season against LeCras, but he's had a very good run, and Darling monstered Pears.

I think our midfield missed both Hocking and Myers in the middle in the first half. They're big bodies and block well for Watson, and it's no coincidence that we started to come good when Myers came on and helped Jobe out.

I think we'll be fine

 

[theboxmike]

Myers should never start as the sub. When he came on I felt the game changer for the better.

 

[Summer Nights]

It's a good question fishardansin. I always like to break problems down to identify individual points of failure. One way of doing this is to look at which players specifically were down or out in the two games you've mentioned. Howlett has been a little bit down on form lately and normally provides a great balance of clearance and running work through the middle. Hocking didn't play last night, and we know how important he is in providing blocks for our ball-winners in the clinches. To me that suggests our midfield as a little bit of work to do in the shepards they provide for each other and are still a little reliant on Hocking in this area. Don't get me wrong, I think as a team we've improved enormously on this compared to last year and the year before, which was pretty shizen tbh.

Like eth, I think we'll be fine. I just think our midfield has small areas of maturity to develop in. It's kind of like until one fires, another won't. When at least two are firing, the others jump on board, but it shows there's still a tinge of laziness about us in the middle sometimes. You can usually see when we're in lazy-prick mode when guns like Zaka and Heppell (and even Jobe and Goddard sometimes) put in jog-chases in quarters 1 to 3. Funny that you don't see it too much in the fourth quarters, when they should be more fatigued. To me that suggests it's mental, that on an off day, it takes time to get their minds in the right state. They are human, after all, but this is how I make sense of it.

FWIW, I think Melksham has been a lot better in the last month. He's an interesting one because for me, his state of mind is discrete from the rest of the midfield group. He'll be lazy when the others are not, and he'll be fighting tooth and nail in patches where Watson, Zaka and co are a little quiet. Myers is similar in that his mindset seems to be his own, but he just seems so consistent with his performances. You know exactly what you're going to get with him. Rarely outstanding but rarely poor.

We'll be okay because our mental maturity is definitely on the right path. I can't see us reverting to the laziness of the last 5 years with the group of players we have now.

My rough call for the last few years has been that when Belly is rucking, I'd love them to try rotating Ryder through the midfield. He couldn't provide the same consistent run that you'd get from a Howlett-type, but he'd be enormous in the stoppages and would provide a fantastic third-man up opportunity. I'd really only like to see this as a limited trial though. By no means am I saying it would definitely work.

 

[Bark Maguley]

It's a good question fishardansin. I always like to break problems down to identify individual points of failure. One way of doing this is to look at which players specifically were down or out in the two games you've mentioned. Howlett has been a little bit down on form lately and normally provides a great balance of clearance and running work through the middle. Hocking didn't play last night, and we know how important he is in providing blocks for our ball-winners in the clinches. To me that suggests our midfield as a little bit of work to do in the shepards they provide for each other and are still a little reliant on Hocking in this area. Don't get me wrong, I think as a team we've improved enormously on this compared to last year and the year before, which was pretty shizen tbh.

Like eth, I think we'll be fine. I just think our midfield has small areas of maturity to develop in. It's kind of like until one fires, another won't. When at least two are firing, the others jump on board, but it shows there's still a tinge of laziness about us in the middle sometimes. You can usually see when we're in lazy prick mode when guns like Zaka and Heppell (and even Jobe and Goddard sometimes) put in jog-chases in quarters 1-3. Funny that you don't see it too much in the fourth quarters, when they should be more fatigued. To me that suggests it's mental, that on an off day, it takes time to get their minds in the right state. They are human, after all, but this is how I make sense of it.

FWIW I think Melksham has been a lot better in the last month. He's an interesting one because for me, his state of mind is discrete from the rest of the midfield group. He'll be lazy when the others are not, and he'll be fighting too and nail in patches where Watson, Zaka and co are a little quiet. Myers is similar in that his mindset seems to be his own, but he just seems so consistent with his performances. You know exactly what you're going to get with him. Rarely outstanding but rarely poor.

We'll be fine because our mental maturity is definitely on the right path. I can't see us reverting to the laziness of the last 5 years with the group of players we have now.

My rough call for the last few years has been that when Belly is rucking, I'd love them to try rotating Ryder through the midfield. He couldn't provide the same consistent run that you'd get from a Howlett type, but he's be enormous in the stoppages and would provide a fantastic third-man up opportunity. I'd really only like to see this as a limited trial though. By no means am I saying it would definitely work.

Ryder goes forward to get a rest, i don't think he can get a rest playing on the ball sadly lol

 

[Summer Nights]

It's how I see us trying to fit Daniher, Crameri and co in the forward line with 2 ruckmen, too. It's a rough call but I'd like to see it tested. The risk would be in adjusting the rotations.

 

[Yoda_]

What doesn't work?

Hurley forward

What does work?

Hurley back

Amidoingitright

 

[BrunoV]

I don't know if the performance of the midfielders was the problem last night as much as it was the structure we had in the middle of the ground and up forward.

While the defence held up exceptionally well under the pressure of the West Coast zone/forward press we didn't manage the transition between defence and attack well at all. This would be the failing of the midfield but it is as much a problem with the forward line. It can't all be left to Dempsey and Hibberd to run the ball out (Hurley's kicking is another of the benefits of playing him behind the ball).

In the middle of the game we struggled to lock the ball into our half of the ground and keep their defence under pressure (well it was probably more a matter of not being able to get the ball out of West Coast's half). It is a difficult balance to get right because if like Freo/Lyon you press as far up as possible you leave yourself open to the slaughter on the counter attack but when you press higher up the ground, like we do, you can can cede control of the midfield territory. I'm not convinced that we make the choice as much as we have our hand forced by the difficulties with our half forwardline and the ease with which oppositions can rebound.

As far as I'm concerned it primarily comes down to the operation of the forward line. The inability to control entries prevents us from locking the ball in deep; and when the pressure is on our defence the defenders need the simple out of a long kick to key forwards leading up to the logos which rarely happens. Kennedy, Darling and even Cox provided these outlets for the Eagles (the mark doesn't need to be taken for it to be effective). Hurley seemed to play deeper all night while Crameri, being the other realistic option - you can forget about Bellchambers, did reasonably well.

The Bellchambers and Ryder combination is an issue too. The balance of the side needs TBC being the main ruck, but he isn't good enough at stoppages or around the ground, and needs Ryder to play more forward. As long as Ryder can't be an effective mobile leading forward, which he hasn't been all year, and Bellchambers can't own the number 1 ruck position I don't think Bellchambers can play. It is much more important for the side to have Daniher and Gumby forward than it is to have Bellchambers slowing the forwardline to a plod even if he can take the odd mark and win hitouts.

I'd take Bellchambers out of the best 22 and play both Daniher and Gumby because it is an instinct for these guys to control that area between our forward 50 and the wing. I'm by no means ending TBC's time at Essendon, and I still think he'll be a really good player, but we don't get what we need out of him (even at the start of the year when he was playing quite well).

 

[Summer Nights]

BrunoV, can you articulate how you saw the midfield structure as being the problem? Presumably that midfield structure was adjusted when we started performing under your interpretation... What, then, were the changes made to the structure of the midfield during the game? I personally think it was not structural but performance-based of the mids, but I'm curious to hear you explain your rationale; Rather than just the effects of it (e.g we couldn't lock it in, which is performance), I want to know what you see as the cause.

 

[Browne Eye]

What doesn't work?

Hurley forward

What does work?

Hurley back

Amidoingitright

Agree totally.
Hurley wants to master the CHF position and I love his enthusiasm but we cannot keep putting four points at risk for his sake. Carlisle goes forward, we turn the game around. That's twice now.

 

[keepzitreal]

One of Gumby/Joey or Carlisle needs to play deep forward. Got the height to always make a contest.

Hurls wastes too much energy running after loose balls or having 3 defenders smash into him and isn't tall enough or a high enough jumper to avoid getting spoiled...

 

[strategy]

Swinging players fwd to back and back again depends on who we play , how we or the opposition are going and injuries, weather etc etc . No player should have a " set position " .
Daniher with Hurley in the fwd line with the smalls may be ok but again it all depends on many factors.
Every team we play has a different setup so we have to have tactics to beat them and if we have to change our structures, so be it . The players must be able to play in many positions.
I wouldnt put ie Davey , Jetta or Kommer on ie Buddy, Cox or Cloke .. too much of a miss match .
In the Mids you see the Swans using Kennedy who uses his bulk and height and strength at the bouncedowns and he is 188cm and 96 kg ( allegedly ) . He is tall , quick and strong . So we have to put people in there to match him and beat him . I wouldnt put ie Jetta in there but Watson etc. The Hawks are trying using Roughead in the centre ball ups against Kennedy . Many teams experiment against each other .

 

[Yoda_]

Are we to one dimensional in the midfield?

 

[Mercurial89]

Are people noticing this just after the last game? I'm not entirely sure it's is a good measuring stick because we're dropping huge numbers back to try and combat the eagles height. So our midfield was working both ways super hard and also had no options coming out of defense. When we stopped dropping the numbers back in the late 3rd and 4th we look alot better.

Just my 2cents

 

[Squibo]

We were missing a certain Heath Hocking last night. Has been brilliant in his tagging roles all season and last night would've shut down Priddis. We don't really have anyone else that can play that role for a entire game which made it even more surprising that Myers was the sub as he's got it in him to some degree imo.

I wouldn't read too much into it all. Eagles have the best tall stocks in the comp and they're slowly finding some form again. Had they won last night, they would've rocketed back into finals contention. Fletcher too would've been invaluable to have down back to play his third man up role. I haven't even watched the game in full yet; got in midway through the second and just watched it from there.

What we do know from this season though.. well there's a lot but some key areas for me are

- Carlisle, as much as he's probably AA defender right now, probably should be a more permanent forward fixture to allow Hurley to play his natural role

- Play Daniher; stop expecting Davey to take it at the highest point; rest Crameri

- Sort out Bellchambers' form. He's still a vital piece of the puzzle for me and while Paddy is best when playing the sole ruck role, we need Tom to return to his early season form

We're still a bit away from the absolute elite clubs though we've made ground on them in no time at all. Another pre season and more games into some of the guys to fix out some the errors that still exist and i'll be happy.

 

[yaco55]

We are over-complicating things.

WC press wasn't working 100% well - or they would have won the inside 50's by 10 or 20.WC won the inside 50's by one.

What the WC did well was to have deep entries in their forward 50 - What this means is that it takes 3 or 4 possessions to get the ball into our forward half, as opposed to 1 or 2 possessions - And of course give s WC more time to set up their press.

 

[Yoda_]

We are over-complicating things.

WC press wasn't working 100% well - or they would have won the inside 50's by 10 or 20.WC won the inside 50's by one.

What the WC did well was to have deep entries in their forward 50 - What this means is that it takes 3 or 4 possessions to get the ball into our forward half, as opposed to 1 or 2 possessions - And of course give s WC more time to set up their press.

Or they're not very good

 

[m7jebus]

The main thing that hasn't worked IMO is the series of backfiring coaching and selection gambles. It has hurt us a few times (giving Blicavs the freedom of the Docklands v Geelong was insanity) and nearly cost us the points against a fairly average West Coast team missing their best midfielder and one of the league's best back-flankers. I'm all for tactical ingenuity, but not at the expense of common sense - which means, say, not picking Myers as sub when we're already missing one of our key midfield cogs. Stuff like that.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I thought it looked like we were trialling the sling shot style in the first half. Obviously hard to tell not being there, but Dempsey did seem to be spending a lot of time forward of centre, hovering.

 

[Summer Nights]

BrunoV, can you articulate how you saw the midfield structure as being the problem? Presumably that midfield structure was adjusted when we started performing under your interpretation... What, then, were the changes made to the structure of the midfield during the game? I personally think it was not structural but performance-based of the mids, but I'm curious to hear you explain your rationale; Rather than just the effects of it (e.g we couldn't lock it in, which is performance), I want to know what you see as the cause.

BrunoV?

 

[blitzer]

The Hurley back, Carlisle forward thing is obvious to everyone except our coaches. To be fair though Hird did say after the match that its starting to become a convincing argument. The way I see it is long term both Hurley and Carlisle will play back (maybe as soon as next year if Daniher comes on quickly and Hooker/Fletch aren't both available).

But for the rest of this year lets play Carlisle up forward please. He will draw the number one defender, take contested marks and generally make defenders nervous and give us a good hit up target. Hurley can't take a mark in the forward line to save his life (his wrists are always causing problems), he is no good at gaining separation from his opponent and can't time his leads properly. Conversely down back he sticks to his opponent like glue, stops them running at the ball and just makes it incredibly hard for them to take marks or find space. Also his disposal is even better down back since he's better when not kicking at goal. Plus he can take kick-in's as well where he is quite potent and would certainly be our best prospect post Fletcher unless we want to give the role to Goddard.

Whilst Ryder and TBC don't really synergise particularly well I think over the course of a whole season we are better off putting up with the limitations of the duo in the same team rather than choosing one and having the other leave, which will leave us with no ruck coverage/depth and will wear down any solo ruckman over the course of a whole AFL season. Plus the issue is overstated to be honest, they are far from our biggest problem as a team.

Our forward line as a whole doesn't really work. I don't think we have enough guys who genuinely lead up at the ball carrier often enough. We aren't getting enough goals from our forward line either, instead relying on our midfield/defenders to kick our goals. Has Hibberd/Dempsey kicked more goals than Kommer so far this season (too lazy to check but it must be close). I know Hurley is averaging about 1 goal a game which for our main target is very poor (even considering he's been injured in a couple of those games). The only thing is I'm not sure who is the answer to our forward line woes. But I think having Carlisle up there for now and then developing Daniher is part of the solution.

 

[Yoda_]

Our forward line as a whole doesn't really work. I don't think we have enough guys who genuinely lead up at the ball carrier often enough. We aren't getting enough goals from our forward line either, instead relying on our midfield/defenders to kick our goals. Has Hibberd/Dempsey kicked more goals than Kommer so far this season (too lazy to check but it must be close). I know Hurley is averaging about 1 goal a game which for our main target is very poor (even considering he's been injured in a couple of those games). The only thing is I'm not sure who is the answer to our forward line woes. But I think having Carlisle up there for now and then developing Daniher is part of the solution.

Pretty damning list of goal kickers isn't it

Stew Crameri 28 goals (12 games)
Alwyn Davey 17 goals (10 games)
Jobe Watson 14 goals (13 games)
Tom Bellchambers 14 goals (11 games)
Ben Howlett 12 goals (12 games)
Michael Hurley 11 goals (10 games)
Scott Gumbleton 11 goals (5 games)
Brendon Goddard 9 goals (13 games)
Brent Stanton 8 goals (12 games)
Jason Winderlich 8 goals (9 games)
Dyson Heppel 6 goals (12 games)
Jackson Merret 6 goals (8 games)
Paddy Ryder 6 goals (9 games)
David Myers 6 goals (13 games)
David Zaharakis 6 goals (13 games)
Jake Melksham 6 goals (12 games)
Jake Carlisle 5 goals (12 games)
Heath Hocking 5 goals (12 games)
Michael Hibberd 5 goals (13 games)
Courtney Dempsey 4 goals (9 games)
Nicholas Kommer 4 goals (11 games)

In terms of team structures we really do miss Angus Monfries as a hit up target. He really was a good link between the midfield and the forward line and was a more than handy goal kicker as well. If only Crameri could offer more deffensively and be a more suitable replacement for 'Gus.

 

[eth-dog]

Hurley, Carlisle, Hooker back
Gumbleton, Daniher, Crameri forward

YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE, I'M NOT SAM KEKOVITCH

 

[blitzer]

Pretty damning list of goal kickers isn't it

Stew Crameri 28 goals (12 games)
Alwyn Davey 17 goals (10 games)
Jobe Watson 14 goals (13 games)
Tom Bellchambers 14 goals (11 games)
Ben Howlett 12 goals (12 games)
Michael Hurley 11 goals (10 games)
Scott Gumbleton 11 goals (5 games)
Brendon Goddard 9 goals (13 games)
Brent Stanton 8 goals (12 games)
Jason Winderlich 8 goals (9 games)
Dyson Heppel 6 goals (12 games)
Jackson Merret 6 goals (8 games)
Paddy Ryder 6 goals (9 games)
David Myers 6 goals (13 games)
David Zaharakis 6 goals (13 games)
Jake Melksham 6 goals (12 games)
Jake Carlisle 5 goals (12 games)
Heath Hocking 5 goals (12 games)
Michael Hibberd 5 goals (13 games)
Courtney Dempsey 4 goals (9 games)
Nicholas Kommer 4 goals (11 games)

In terms of team structures we really do miss Angus Monfries as a hit up target. He really was a good link between the midfield and the forward line and was a more than handy goal kicker as well. If only Crameri could offer more deffensively and be a more suitable replacement for 'Gus.

Since you supplied the numbers I decided to try breaking them down by area. Hopefully the image works.

 

[monty1104]

Interesting to read people's thoughts regarding Myers as the sub. 2 games where he has been a sub (Sydney last year and West Coast this week) he has come on and really turned the tide of the game. Unfortunately though, he doesn't really take the game by the scruff of the next when he plays full games, to the point where his form is poor enough to put him back as the sub.

I'm starting to lean towards using him as a sub a bit more. He is flexible enough to play as a tall or as a midfielder, and he obviously has good impact when he comes on.