Moved Thread What is a Draft Pick worth??

[TommyD13]

In a trade between two clubs, how much value does a draft pick hold? I did some maths, and figured out that Sydney received enough points in the trade with Hawthorn for Tom Mitchell, that equals to pick 13. In my opinion Tom Mitchell is worth more than pick 13, but the question is, what do you guys think a draft pick is worth?? I guess you have to take in the risk of the pick not working out and everything like that as well. Another question, does a future draft pick hold less, more or the same currency as a current pick?

 

[DarkPhoenix]

Under the current system, Whatever the AFL tells them its worth.

AFL can step in at any time and Veto a trade if it doesn't match up to their bullshit points system.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

What someone is willing to give you for it.

 

[adammania9]

Worth more to the club who possesses it than anybody else.

 

[TBellicious]

Anything south of 3000 points

 

[Luv_our_club]

Picks 40+ when stacked together can be used to "pay" for Academy players. It allows those clubs to keep their high end draft picks. Most blatantly unfair aspect of the system and something that coaches complained about to the AFL directly.

Arguably 10 first round draft picks that fall in round five can never be worth 1 first round pick.

Picks should not be worth more to some clubs than others..

 

[blitzer]

I'll address the second part of the OP. A future pick is worth slightly less than a current pick. We've already seen it in negotiating. Teams are keen to trade future picks so they can rebuild quicker in the here and now. Particularly if they believe they are improving.

Another aspect is if you trade for a player using a future pick and that player improves your side then your future pick will be later in the draft and thus be less valuable.

That said teams aren't dumb. If GWS were to say trade Kelly for example - they will know that he will significantly improve the team he goes to so if they get offered future picks they will factor it into their asking price.

 

[donbooger]

Since Sydney's two best players came from Hawthorn it is hard for them to complain about Mitchell.

I think draft picks are worth less then the public thinks, so many fail and the diamonds can pop up anywhere in the first round. Trading for known quantities like T Mitchell that are still young is certainly the right thing to do if you can get it.

I am not much of a gambler though and the truth is probably somewhere in between hedge your bets with a few trades for young players with a few years behind them and having a few rolls in the drafts first round and hope for the champion to pop up. Got to get lucky for premierships.

 

[HaroLad]

Draft picks are worth very little, a player picked at pick 10 will likely never amount to anything amazing despite how highly valued pick 10 is.

 

[Art Corvelay]

This is BigFooty, where youf is king, so any draft pick up to about pick 53 is far more promising then a best 22 mainstay.

 

[Benny78]

I don't think a first round pick is worth Zac Tuohy. I'd want more as half the first round picks don't end up being as good as him, or even making it for that matter.

There are plenty of first rounders that come better than Rhys Stanley, then again some even worse. Picks are overated, if you had 10 first rounders, you might end up with 1-2 elite players in the end compared to like 4 delistings.

 

[Seb78]

Draft picks are worth very little, a player picked at pick 10 will likely never amount to anything amazing despite how highly valued pick 10 is.

Wasn't Dangerfield picked at 10?

 

[HaroLad]

Wasn't Dangerfield picked at 10?

Yep, and so was Daniel Gorringe.

Your point?

 

[Andre]

Since Sydney's two best players came from Hawthorn it is hard for them to complain about Mitchell.

I think draft picks are worth less then the public thinks, so many fail and the diamonds can pop up anywhere in the first round. Trading for known quantities like T Mitchell that are still young is certainly the right thing to do if you can get it.

I am not much of a gambler though and the truth is probably somewhere in between hedge your bets with a few trades for young players with a few years behind them and having a few rolls in the drafts first round and hope for the champion to pop up. Got to get lucky for premierships.

People tend to remember the good picks over the busts. If a pick 6-10 end ups being a player 'worth' pick 20-30 half the time, then trading for a still young player whose almost certain to end up 'worth' a pick in the range 11-15 it should be so the trade (assuming meets positional needs) is usually done, but most fans will scream their club has traded away their future superstar for an average player there.

Personally I'd ditch picks altogether and just allocate points based on ladder position. As per now academy and father son you'd get some extra points just useable for those players. Otherwise any club can bid on any player. Rather then a draft in order, a player auction. In reverse ladder order clubs put in an opening points bid on a player and off it should go until the player is 'bought'.

It'd make trade week go more smoothly as well. Right now you get a player considered worth around pick 30, club A he wants to go to has picks 20 and 40. A week wasted as club A won't cough up pick 20 and club B won't take pick 40, so the search to find another club to help out. If there's just points, with something like 18th getting 3600, 17th 3500 through 3rd 2100, 2nd 2000 and 1st having 1900 then there's enough points for each club, to not have difficulty doing trades if both clubs are in broad agreement on value.

 

[Wesley2]

Hard to tell, apparently a peak Buddy Franklin is only worth pick 19.

Imagine if Hawks got fair value for him.

 

[HairyO]

Draft picks are worth very little, a player picked at pick 10 will likely never amount to anything amazing despite how highly valued pick 10 is.

Dont let the trading thread tragics hear this. Draft picks are the most important thing in the game. The potential to get a gun is worth more than an actual gun.

 

[El bastino]

Picks are over rated, Andrew McGrath was the number 1 pick last year, he has had a fantastic first season, yet if he was to be traded for this year, you wouldn't get a top 3 pick for him

 

[Portmanteau]

What isn't a draft pick not worth?

 

[BF Tiger]

http://www.nber.org/papers/w11270.pdf

 

[HTT]

It depends on the players age and what they have proven. A young player who has proven himself, e.g Marcus Bontempelli, still likely has improvement in him and a lot of good footy ahead, almost guaranteed, whereas a draftee taken with pick 1 has a couple of extra years but no one really knows how good he will be. So Bontempelli may actually be worth more than even pick 1. But an older player, regardless of how good they are, only has a couple of years left. Best, most recent examples are Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis, who although probably going a bit too cheaply, Hawthorn also trying to save cap space, would never really attract anything more than a 3rd rounder despite all they've achieved.
That is probably also to do with demand. A player like Bontempelli can help both a team going for flags and teams looking 5 years down the track. There really aren't many clubs he wouldn't suit. Mitchell and Lewis suit a club with a closing window, or maybe a club looking for a playing-coaching transition. More demand makes things worth more.

 

[HairyO]

Picks are over rated, Andrew McGrath was the number 1 pick last year, he has had a fantastic first season, yet if he was to be traded for this year, you wouldn't get a top 3 pick for him

I loved a discussion on Burton. He would have been top 3 or top 5 if not injured, but because we got him for pick 19, he would be worth low 20s now.

Was possibly the dumbest thing Ive read on BF.

He would still be top 3 and it wouldnt be a surprise if he would go for pick 1 - given he is totally over his injury and has 2 pre-seasons on him.

 

[El bastino]

I loved a discussion on Burton. He would have been top 3 or top 5 if not injured, but because we got him for pick 19, he would be worth low 20s now.

Was possibly the dumbest thing Ive read on BF.

He would still be top 3 and it wouldnt be a surprise if he would go for pick 1 - given he is totally over his injury and has 2 pre-seasons on him.

But Burton doesn't have the mystery anymore, we know he is good, we know he is gonna be good, he could become a top 10 player of the league...but we know that and thus his value has dropped...its like if I gave you two boxes, one was filled with 100k and cost $10 to open, or the other box COULD have 1million in it and costs $20 to open....the mystery is what's valuable

 

[HairyO]

But Burton doesn't have the mystery anymore, we know he is good, we know he is gonna be good, he could become a top 10 player of the league...but we know that and thus his value has dropped...its like if I gave you two boxes, one was filled with 100k and cost $10 to open, or the other box COULD have 1million in it and costs $20 to open....the mystery is what's valuable

Not sure if serious.

Knowing a player is good doesnt drop their value, it increases it. The draft is a lottery. You could pick an absolute spud of a failure. But with a 20 year old kid who clearly is a gun you reckon they go down in value?

A more realistic example is 2 boxes. One contains $100,000. The other may contain $12 or $120,000. Which do you value higher?

 

[Superfist]

Did a quick review of the 10 national drafts between 2004 and 2013 and came up with these results:
Pick 1: 0 elite, 8 above average, 2 average, 0 below average, 0 poor
Pick 2: 3, 3, 1, 3, 0
Pick 3: 1, 2, 7, 0, 0
Pick 4: 2, 1, 3, 3, 1
Pick 5: 2, 2, 5, 1, 0
Pick 6: 0, 1, 4, 3, 2
Pick 7: 1, 2, 5, 2, 0
Pick 8: 0, 1, 5, 2, 2
Pick 9: 0, 0, 8, 2, 0
Pick 10: 2, 1, 2, 3, 2
Pick 11: 0, 4, 1, 2, 3
Pick 12: 0, 3, 1, 1, 5
Pick 13: 0, 7, 2, 0, 1
Pick 14: 0, 3, 5, 1, 1
Pick 15: 0, 1, 5, 1, 3
Pick 16: 0, 0, 5, 5, 0
Pick 17: 0, 1, 2, 2, 4
Pick 18: 1, 2, 1, 3, 3
Pick 19: 0, 1, 4, 1, 4
Pick 20: 1, 0, 0, 4, 5

Can obviously quibble about some of the ratings (for instance I put Marc Murphy as above average when some would consider elite, and Jackson Macrae as average when he may already be above average), but regardless it suggests that high draft picks are seriously overrated (most people would think at pick 3 you've got more than a 30% chance of getting an above average player, and the results for picks 6 and 9 are particularly dire). But against this there's clearly a better chance of getting a truly elite player if you're drafting up the top, and these players can be transformative for a club and a fan base. Plus there's the selling hope factor - people get more enthused about a potential player than a known quantity.

 

[El bastino]

Not sure if serious.

Knowing a player is good doesnt drop their value, it increases it. The draft is a lottery. You could pick an absolute spud of a failure. But with a 20 year old kid who clearly is a gun you reckon they go down in value?

A more realistic example is 2 boxes. One contains $100,000. The other may contain $12 or $120,000. Which do you value higher?

What I should have said is his "perceived" value has dropped. You feel and probably rightly so that he is worth a number 1 pick, the kid is a proven gun BUT would you get that? No because Raynor "could be anything"