When will we contend again?

[Squizz]

Difference with the Swans is they have made the rucks a priority - Mumford, Pyke, Seaby (and LRT seems to have reinvented himself in the backup role).

In addition to a good strike rate in trading for players (Mumford, Kennedy, Shaw, Richards, Mattner all played last night, plus Morton), the also seem to be able to find class with ordinary draft picks in recent years (Reid #38 and Hannebery #30), and solid players out of nothing like Bird (NSW scholarship), Pyke (rookie), Jack (rookie), Smith (rookie), Malceski (#64), Johnson (#57).

That's 14 out of the 22 from last night. Impressive without even counting that another 2 players (Grundy and Parker) were picks 42 and 40 and Dennis-Lane (emergency) was pick #55 in 2009 (same year as Rohan, Jetta and Reid - whilst we had a horror year in drafting).

 

[aussierulesrules]

Regardless of where they got anyone from, their older ones showed that just because you're on the other side of 28 or 30, you can still play top, top level footy (just as Milne and Lenny did this year, at 32 and Boomer Harvey did at 34, Robert Harvey still was at 37, etc).

My point is that we still have a list and best 22 that, if it performed close to its best, could quite easily contend again next year, if we fix up our obvious issues, that cost us several games this year and do some quality trading/drafting this year.

Lets also not forget how much we completely dominated Sydney for much of our game with them at Etihad earlier in the year and how we then had the ball up our end of the ground for much of our game with them at the SCG, late in the year, only to butcher opportunity after opportunity to kick goals.

We were right in most of our games with the top teams this year and have a heap of areas we can improve in for next year. While our group still have vast finals experience and "know how to win", I think we owe it to ourselves to see how far they are able to go under Watters style, especially with many of our younger ones ready to step up and play more of a key role, if necessary.

 

[hayes]

Regardless of where they got anyone from, their older ones showed that just because you're on the other side of 28 or 30, you can still play top, top level footy (just as Milne and Lenny did this year, at 32 and Boomer Harvey did at 34, Robert Harvey still was at 37, etc).

My point is that we still have a list and best 22 that, if it performed close to its best, could quite easily contend again next year, if we fix up our obvious issues, that cost us several games this year and do some quality trading/drafting this year.

Lets also not forget how much we completely dominated Sydney for much of our game with them at Etihad earlier in the year and how we then had the ball up our end of the ground for much of our game with them at the SCG, late in the year, only to butcher opportunity after opportunity to kick goals.

We were right in most of our games with the top teams this year and have a heap of areas we can improve in for next year. While our group still have vast finals experience and "know how to win", I think we owe it to ourselves to see how far they are able to go under Watters style, especially with many of our younger ones ready to step up and play more of a key role, if necessary.

Agree with you to an extent but they weren't the only games where there were plenty of 'what ifs'. Against the best teams we consistently weren't good enough which is why for all these what ifs we didn't play finals.

I think we might be able to give it one more crack next year but hard calls have to be made and they have to be made from round 1. For example Schneider has to play midfield so Milera is in the team, we can't carry Kosi for 10+ weeks just to fill a structure, Siposs and Dunell have to be in the team, get some more pace, we need a key defender etc. If those things are done then we might not be far off but if we don't do those things plus continue to play the older players and finish ninth again then that's another 20 or so games that could've been given (not the right word but you get the point) to our younger guys and the massive slide will probably come the year after. Needless to say 2013 is going to be a massive year for everyone.

 

[aussierulesrules]

There were many games where there wasn't a lot between us winning and losing, though and you can even include the umpiring in that. I don't usually say that umpiring costs us games, except for in extreme circumstances and I don't want to get plugger35 started, but there were 3 games this year where I genuinely feel the umpiring could have cost us 3 wins (Port in round one- I still remember that mark Milne took inside 50, early in the last, being taken off him and paid as a free, when it was great body work, for instance, Freo- I don't remember feeling more exasperated with the umpiring than I did after that game and then of course Collingwood at the G, where even those who support Collingwood said we got totally shafted, and not just in the last minute.

Then there were the wins we cost ourselves by not having any depth at FB, or in the ruck, which we will surely address for next year. They were the areas we could least afford to get major injuries this year and of course that is where we got our major injuries! Then there were the wins we could easily have cost ourselves by continually picking Kosi (after about round 6) and virtually "carrying him" for his last 15 or so games, instead of picking Wilkes, who can do most of the things Kosi does well, but can also do so much more (like tackling, chasing, pressuring, not crunching Roo in marking contests!, etc).

We of course also cost ourselves significantly with our poor disposal and ordinary kicking for goal, in a LOT of games, but Watters said that we were working hard to address these issues at training, but that it would take time to see improvement (I reckon we did see it, too, especially from Gilbert, who's kicking went from atrocious, early on, to acceptable, by the end). I expect we'll work hard on that more over summer and that it could be noticeably better next year. Then there is the fact that the likes of CJ and Raph, who's kicking can be ordinary, were virtually banished to the VFL, signalling our intention to select those who can kick, mostly.

I realise a lot would have to go right for us to improve enough to say be top 4, but we would have finished top 4 this year had we simply won the 4 games that we lost by 8 points or less (all other things being equal), so I don't believe we're as far away as most seem to think we are.

We were only a little bit off winning a fair few more games this year, but I believe there are a lot of areas we can improve next year. Of course, if we did really get back into contention again, I think our group could "come back to life" again and get out of the funk they've largely been in for the past two years.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Its interesting how people are talking about Jetta and the "slingshot" play. Its something thats been done with Stanley and can also work with Milera and Saad.
In fact there are a lot of similarities between Sydney's "new" game style and StKilda's under watters.
Without any other changes the Saints will be stronger in 2013 than they were in 2012.

 

[hayes]

It was a great goal and its why I'm such a fan of speed. If they can't catch you there's nothing they can do and it helps when putting pressure on. Pace breaks games open so the more we have of it the better.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Without any other changes the Saints will be stronger in 2013 than they were in 2012.

Barring anything major going "wrong" I definitely agree with that. There are so many areas we can improve on from this year and Scotty having a year under his belt now and having time to now get the list into better balance (with Pelchan and co.) is also likely to be very beneficial.

Lets also not forget how slowly we started this year, too. We had a very interrupted NAB Cup campaign (missed the game v Essendon altogether and then went to Perth the next week, to play a shortened match- 12.5 minute quarters, plus time on- in 36 deg heat) and were playing terribly, just when we needed to have a few good games, to get used to the new game plan and so on, so I reckon Watters would have gone into the season pretty stressed/not relaxed with how we were travelling, or feeling like we were ready to start the season. That is far from an ideal way to go into your first season of coaching an AFL side and it might have been weeks before he really felt properly relaxed with the whole thing. Hopefully we'll go into next season far more ready to start the year and get off to a flier and if we do win our first few games, it will be game-on, even if Goddard leaves.

 

[Latour]

Guys guys we are going to miraculously be a huge threat next year and we are gonna be like top 4 contenders alright k cool.

 

[benny_cousins]

I don't think Reiwoldt, Kosi, Fisher, Milne, Hayes, Montagna, Dal Santo will get another chance to play in a Premiership at St Kilda. If we start rebuilding really hard now we can be a premiership threat in 4-5 years time without having to bottom out. We would be best to trade for younger players or high draft picks in the next couple of years e.g. Goddard for a first round pick.

If we wait until all these players have retired before we go for a youth policy than it will be a very long 6,7,8 years for the club IMO.

 

[hayes]

I don't think Reiwoldt, Kosi, Fisher, Milne, Hayes, Montagna, Dal Santo will get another chance to play in a Premiership at St Kilda. If we start rebuilding really hard now we can be a premiership threat in 4-5 years time without having to bottom out. We would be best to trade for younger players or high draft picks in the next couple of years e.g. Goddard for a first round pick.

If we wait until all these players have retired before we go for a youth policy than it will be a very long 6,7,8 years for the club IMO.

Pretty much.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I don't think Reiwoldt, Kosi, Fisher, Milne, Hayes, Montagna, Dal Santo will get another chance to play in a Premiership at St Kilda. If we start rebuilding really hard now we can be a premiership threat in 4-5 years time without having to bottom out. We would be best to trade for younger players or high draft picks in the next couple of years e.g. Goddard for a first round pick.

If we wait until all these players have retired before we go for a youth policy than it will be a very long 6,7,8 years for the club IMO.

If Goddard chooses to leave we may well get a first round pick for him.
Given his free agency status , how could we possibly trade him for a first round pick?

Personally I dont see a huge differernce between the potential of StKilda's current team and those of Sydney and Hawthorn.
( Did we not beat Sydney during the year )?
Add some consistant performance from the likes of Sippos, Stanley, Milera, and some improvment by some of the young kids.

Geelong were cactus after Ablett went to Gold coast werent they? Too old ? missing their best player?

 

[hayes]

I think we should just play it by year. If we start off the season well and by the halfway mark we're in the top 4 then obviously we have a crack, but if we're battling just to make the finals then we reassess because I don't want to finish ninth again.

 

[TassieSaint]

I think we should just play it by year. If we start off the season well and by the halfway mark we're in the top 4 then obviously we have a crack, but if we're battling just to make the finals then we reassess because I don't want to finish ninth again.

Are you suggesting we tank every season it becomes apparent we won't make top 4? Can't say I agree at all.

 

[hayes]

Are you suggesting we tank every season it becomes apparent we won't make top 4? Can't say I agree at all.

My mistake, I definitely wasn't clear enough. My post was more about next year. When I say reassess I don't mean tank, I think we should do something similiar to what Watters did for the last two games of the season when it was obvious we weren't going to make the finals. Would prefer to see that if we aren't premiership contenders rather than keep playing all the old guys and try to scrape into the finals.

 

[TassieSaint]

My mistake, I definitely wasn't clear enough. My post was more about next year. When I say reassess I don't mean tank, I think we should do something similiar to what Watters did for the last two games of the season when it was obvious we weren't going to make the finals. Would prefer to see that if we aren't premiership contenders rather than keep playing all the old guys and try to scrape into the finals.

Ok fair enough then. But still I think when it comes to rebuilding finals experience for young players and a winning culture are underrated by a lot of people.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

Ok fair enough then. But still I think when it comes to rebuilding finals experience for young players and a winning culture are underrated by a lot of people.

Very true as Demons & Carlton are now finding out

 

[mysainters]

It's such a hard question.

Really felt like thing clicked under Watters half way through the season, the boys pushed Pies, Sydney....I honestly go into 2013 with no clue on how it will pan out which is a strange feeling.

 

[Crow_Sting]

Won't vote but I think 2016-2018 is when your next window will be. Need to nail this years draft. Keep all the kids, get games into them and gel as a team and familiarise the game plan. Guys like Jack Steven need to become the big leaders like Lenny and Nick Riewoldt and lead from the front if there will be any chance of success.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

Won't vote but I think 2016-2018 is when your next window will be. Need to nail this years draft. Keep all the kids, get games into them and gel as a team and familiarise the game plan. Guys like Jack Steven need to become the big leaders like Lenny and Nick Riewoldt and lead from the front if there will be any chance of success.

Cotch 9, out of interest, as Tigers appear to be culling a number of players this year, when do you see your next window to have a chance of getting to Top 4 and a possible flag? And do you see us getting there before or after you?

Edit: Serious question, was interested to see what you thought, NOT having a cheap shot.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Yep - I want to stress Cotch, we're not having a dig. We are geniunely interested in what you have to say.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Suppose StKilda had somehow won four of the games we narrowly lost in 2012.
We would have finished top 4.
Does anyone here feel that beating Sydney or Hawthorn would have been a hopeless task?
Now add an effective full back. Add a ruckman in case McEvoy is injured for a couple of weeks.
Assume Saad, Milera, Stanley, Newnes, Cripps, Ledger, Simpkin, Siposs, Dunnel and even Wilkes are all that bit better after another pre-season.
Assume the whole team is megafit and super pumped up ( even if some of it is the placebo effect ) by their altitude training.
Assume that Lenny who already had the most heart in the club, has even more after his operation.
While some players succumb to injury as they age, players like Milne, DalSanto, and Montagna have been remarkably injury free throughout their career. They will be the posterchildren for footy players in their 30's. ( does that make sense )?

Now tell me why we wont be challenging next year.

Maybe Goddard wont be there, but he hardly carried us this year. Maybe he'll motivate the team to show whats what ( like the Cats after Ablett left ).

 

[TassieSaint]

That is a very good argument SaintsSeptember. On the other hand I reckon you could put forward an equally well reasoned argument the other way.

As someone above said we really could go either way next year and beyond. 2013 will be a fascinating season (or at least the first month or so will be).

 

[Crow_Sting]

Cotch 9, out of interest, as Tigers appear to be culling a number of players this year, when do you see your next window to have a chance of getting to Top 4 and a possible flag? And do you see us getting there before or after you?

Edit: Serious question, was interested to see what you thought, NOT having a cheap shot.

I see us being a contender in 2015-2017. Until we actually sign these targets up I won't believe anything. Got the makings of a good side now but Ellis and Conca like Jack Steven need to step up and really lead from the front and live up to the fact they were 1st round picks.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

That is a very good argument SaintsSeptember. On the other hand I reckon you could put forward an equally well reasoned argument the other way.

As someone above said we really could go either way next year and beyond. 2013 will be a fascinating season (or at least the first month or so will be).

To me the altitude training is the giveaway. You dont do that sort of thing unless you are going to give it a good crack.
This pre-season Watters knows what he's looking for. There will be no stupid losses to bottom dwellers early in the season next year.
Of the oldies, its really only Fisher, and maybe Gramm who are slowing down, ( Not counting Kosi and Blake who I consider depth players 2013). and Gramm has showed some signs that he's ready to come back after his last couple of games.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

I see us being a contender in 2015-2017. Until we actually sign these targets up I won't believe anything. Got the makings of a good side now but Ellis and Conca like Jack Steven need to step up and really lead from the front and live up to the fact they were 1st round picks.

Thanks for that. Probably realistic for where you are now. Frustrating for you, but realistic.

Hope this years draft and trading is kinder to you.