Where do you make your profits/losses?

[FallingLiefs]

Poorly worded, it's not deliberately losing its betting two possible outcomes and different bookies knowing one will lose because you are hedging/arbing with a bonus bet or inflated odds, etc. To the bookie it just looks like a lost bet.

I knew what you meant. It’s simple in theory but very hard in practice.

Are you doing it on sports? Hard to find any discernible loss there with small percentages the winnings should well outweigh the negative in this scenario.

Horse racing. No volume to lay in the market until last few minutes, where the “bad” horse you want to back to show a loss has drifted significantly and you are hugely unlikely to be able to lay it off for anywhere near parity or arbitrage.

If you are really trying to hide accounts. Bet on the apps in pubs/clubs. Have mindless Multis on dogs and a wide range of sports. Go for 10 leg basketball multis.Saturday quaddies. Planning to lose (while breaking even) could be harder than planning to win. Which sounds silly But it’s hard.

 

[adammania9]

Borderline autists make the worst punters.

one of my good mates now and definitely my puntiest mate, back in school he was obsessed with sport. massive Kangaroos fan, hated the Eagles, would walk over to you in English with a rudely ripped bit of paper and an oblong footy oval drawn and go: "best 18 of three club playes, go". this is all pre-omnipresent iPhones too. looking up third division Hungarian handball, weird fascination with Iceland and its sports, the non-football teams of massive, er, football clubs like Barcelona, Panathinaikos, and Galatasaray... loved a stat... anyway I didnt actually chat to my two best school mates for about seven years and now we all sit down the pub, united by #memz. anyway it transpired he was 'into gambling' and me and my other mate are like oh shit, here we go, fu**in aye, it's all coming together, this guy's going to fu**in kill the multis!

turns out he goes to the EBT, chucks on 5 bucks worth of 50 cent mystery trifectas, backs whatever dog is jumping on the second-from-outside, and listens to his moronic mates in a facebook 'syndicate' (puffing cigars with Al Capone and planning the next Kentucky Derby winner, this is not) on what horse to back. the guy is a bumblin fool, absolute 0 clue on the punt and routinely loses it all.

point is these people are no better than you or me on the $2 on the rank outsider at Meydan when they're stacking up the stools.

My theory is the more you know about a sport, the less likely you are to make money from gambling on it

 

[JuniorWatch]

My theory is the more you know about a sport, the less likely you are to make money from gambling on it

Maybe the more passionate you are about sport the worse you are. Bias can be a bad problem which is why I never bet on the bombers, save maybe the odd positional spot bet.
The more i know, the better i am i find. Can never do too much analysis.
The less invested in the team result or players performance, even better.

 

[JuniorWatch]

I just subscribed to an online betting tracker too to help get some insights and it's really valuable. Amazing seeing it all there where you make and lose money. I've effectively cut out certain sports that I thought I was doing well in but actually was leaking money over time.

This sounds fun, what's it called?

 

[juss]

This sounds fun, what's it called?

The one I'm on now is bettingmetrics. They had a promo cost me about $100 AUD for the year.

I have also used Smart betting tracker or as others have posted there is a really good excel spreadsheet available.

It looks expensive at first glance but I've already justified it with the insights improving my punting, the money saved is money made.

 

[juss]

My theory is the more you know about a sport, the less likely you are to make money from gambling on it

This can be true, you look to much at who is going to win rather than the value of the odds on offer, and you over play based on injuries etc because your sports knowledge tells you a team won't win without player X and Y.

I'll back this up by saying one of my most successful sports is MLB using nothing but the team and starting pitcher data. I know very very little about the sport beyond the basics.

 

[Gibbsy]

Might sound silly, but same race multis. I had an ROI of 155% over the spring/early summer. With a strike rate of just under 15%.

Essentially just play in small fields, between 6 to 9 horses, and only ever include two selections in the multi. Most of the time these are two “top 4” selections – the likely winner, and the outsider that can sneak into fourth. The pricing is very automated on SRMs and the markets (particularly in races with less than 8 horses so no third divvy) don’t exactly correlate with normal win/place markets.

For the outsiders generally I am looking at horses resuming off a long lay-off that aren’t priced for the win or even the place but again can sneak into that fourth position. Staying disciplined overall is probably the main thing; you can get carried away throwing SRMs on every second race on a Saturday arvo if you want to.

Most of my bets are priced around the $10-12 mark with usually a $10 outlay. I like small field country meets and tracks like Darwin. City meets are much harder. My best of the spring was out at eagle farm in early Nov, odds of $45.25, stake of $12.50 for a $565 return. Was the second favourite paying $4.60 which won and a debutant paying 91/16 which came third. Happy days.

My other significant advantage (which is more down to knowledge than luck, which I think I have the latter in racing) is in the triple j hottest 100. The first year I betted properly on this (2018) SB offered crazy odds because they had no idea what they were doing. They have wisened up now but there was still fun to be had this year and I surprisingly made just as much. Over three years I have an ROI of 328%.

Obviously I still do the random pissed TAB bets with mates at the pub and little footy multis every now and then, but these two have me well and truly ahead throughout life

 

[juss]

Might sound silly, but same race multis. I had an ROI of 155% over the spring/early summer. With a strike rate of just under 15%.

Essentially just play in small fields, between 6 to 9 horses, and only ever include two selections in the multi. Most of the time these are two “top 4” selections – the likely winner, and the outsider that can sneak into fourth. The pricing is very automated on SRMs and the markets (particularly in races with less than 8 horses so no third divvy) don’t exactly correlate with normal win/place markets.

For the outsiders generally I am looking at horses resuming off a long lay-off that aren’t priced for the win or even the place but again can sneak into that fourth position. Staying disciplined overall is probably the main thing; you can get carried away throwing SRMs on every second race on a Saturday arvo if you want to.

Most of my bets are priced around the $10-12 mark with usually a $10 outlay. I like small field country meets and tracks like Darwin. City meets are much harder. My best of the spring was out at eagle farm in early Nov, odds of $45.25, stake of $12.50 for a $565 return. Was the second favourite paying $4.60 which won and a debutant paying 91/16 which came third. Happy days.

My other significant advantage (which is more down to knowledge than luck, which I think I have the latter in racing) is in the triple j hottest 100. The first year I betted properly on this (2018) SB offered crazy odds because they had no idea what they were doing. They have wisened up now but there was still fun to be had this year and I surprisingly made just as much. Over three years I have an ROI of 328%.

Obviously I still do the random pissed TAB bets with mates at the pub and little footy multis every now and then, but these two have me well and truly ahead throughout life

There can be edges in novelty or entertainment (non sporting) type bets if you know inside info or are an expert in that novelty. I got a reliable tip around the final few contestants that Sashi won masterchef, loaded up and took the profit.

Pia winning survivor is another one that was well known and I took.

The bookies don't have the same knowledge in these as they do with their data power with sports betting.

 

[HeathySure]

There can be edges in novelty or entertainment (non sporting) type bets if you know inside info or are an expert in that novelty. I got a reliable tip around the final few contestants that Sashi won masterchef, loaded up and took the profit.

Pia winning survivor is another one that was well known and I took.

The bookies don't have the same knowledge in these as they do with their data power with sports betting.

i have no idea how betting on things that are already decided is allowed. It should be illegal

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting on the SRM's Gibbsy as I thought the odds would be utter poi poi - I will have to take a closer look

 

[ash_1050]

i have no idea how betting on things that are already decided is allowed. It should be illegal

RIP Brownlow medal betting

 

[HeathySure]

RIP Brownlow medal betting

well that isnt determined until round 23 so it probably counts as betting in the run but reality TV shows... those in the know can make easy money

 

[HeathySure]

Limits. Bookies also know the result, they just keep taking bets because degens like betting on it. Basically just giving out free money as promotional tool.
[/QUOTE]
exactly!!! they will make a fortune of those who dont

 

[juss]

Limits. Bookies also know the result, they just keep taking bets because degens like betting on it. Basically just giving out free money as promotional tool.

exactly!!! they will make a fortune of those who dont
[/QUOTE]

The bookies are unethical. Is anyone surprised? Their entire business model is get as much money of losing punters as they can and ban their service to anyone that's profiting. That's why you need to punish them when you can and spread your wins between them to minimise that ban.

 

[NonPhixion]

exactly!!! they will make a fortune of those who dont

The bookies are unethical. Is anyone surprised? Their entire business model is get as much money of losing punters as they can and ban their service to anyone that's profiting. That's why you need to punish them when you can and spread your wins between them to minimise that ban.
[/QUOTE]
& share tips to punish bookies even more

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting on the SRM's Gibbsy as I thought the odds would be utter poi poi - I will have to take a closer look

Sports offering money back on EVERY race at Flem and Randwick this week SRM if you miss 1 leg BUT it has to be 3 leg minimum

 

[Gibbsy]

Sports offering money back on EVERY race at Flem and Randwick this week SRM if you miss 1 leg BUT it has to be 3 leg minimum

yeah, I’ve got sucked in to similar ‘exclusive’ offers on a couple of weekends. It’s an absolute bust. it’s nearly the equivalent of trying to pick a boxed tri every single race. The extra leg just makes it that much harder; I give those offers a wide berth now.

 

[juss]

The bookies are unethical. Is anyone surprised? Their entire business model is get as much money of losing punters as they can and ban their service to anyone that's profiting. That's why you need to punish them when you can and spread your wins between them to minimise that ban.

Corporate bookies**

Make a TopSport account
[/QUOTE]
I use betfair, is topsport another exchange?

 

[juss]

So speaking of trackers, just looked at my data and in the past week I am +6.31% ROI.
That's a good week, but because the $ value isn't enormous because I have only been betting small/medium amounts it seems like not a great result.

This I reckon is a challenge for the punter, certainly is for me, despite the good ROI I'm not happy with the $ amount which will probably cause me to bet more and thus lose. The key is to remain focused on the return and not the results and let it build over time.