Where do you make your profits/losses?

[benji21]

hmm, this seems one of those 'tricks' that you try about six times and it never comes off.

isn't this essentially just narrowing your potential and you're still playing god, still relying on statistics which – considering how many statistics are in sport now – not all prior statistics correctly predict the resulted statistic.

people in the UK, when they heard my accent, would always ask me at the pub watching football about the A-League and how amazing the corner markets are. I tried bringing it back to Australia but it was never profitable enough and even with small bets, I just wasn't winning that often either.

so let's say we're talking about corners in the Premier League.

the average is something like 10.

let's say Norwich City usually have 12 corners in their game and Brighton have 8.

betting agency rightfully has the lowest odds for 10 corners – let's say $1.05.

Norwich have a new striker over but also have their best left and right back out meaning there'll surely be more Norwich shots on goal, but also more chance for Brighton to ping shots. there are generally more shots off target. meaning this game is likely to have more corners just because of the average shots off target translating to more corners.

even if you go over 11.5 corners but under 13.5, you still basically only have two chances out of 0-20, and even then the bell curve always favours 7-13, but that 7-13 is just way way more common than say 4 corners or 18 corners so it gets more unlikely.

punting is a mug's game unless you know a dodgy jockey but I just never bought into this sort of way of betting. you're going to have to plunk down a lot of money, still get lucky, and most of the time these things only like like 2.50 and not the $6-7 you'd need them to be to have some fun.

You are getting higher value odds for something basically. So overtime you win.
Say its 1.90 a piece. You have 100 on each side. You lose 10 dollars or win 180, effectively getting 18-1 odds for something that should probably be 3 dollars. Of course this depends on what you're betting on and how big the gap.
So in your example. if you got 1.90. you are getting 18 dollars odds for 12 and 13, when its likely to hit 7-13. you take those odds any day.
but it only works on markets that are less certain and will give you variance on odds between bookmakers. IE the international t20 at the moment is a good one as the data isn't as strong as say the NBA or EPL.

 

[juss]

First of all, I need to stop betting on things outside my game, but I'm bored at the moment and a degenerate.

Seriously though, does anyone else have this experience where you do some analysis, and are down to a few options you want to take and choose between them and just get unlucky with the wrong one comes up or down?

I was weighing up 4 bets overnight, 3/4 selections won, the one I ended up backing Garbine Muguruza is the one that lost 2-1.

Then I rage bet $100 this morning on the Washington Capitals and they are about to lose 3-2 at home.

 

[HeathySure]

First of all, I need to stop betting on things outside my game, but I'm bored at the moment and a degenerate.

Seriously though, does anyone else have this experience where you do some analysis, and are down to a few options you want to take and choose between them and just get unlucky with the wrong one comes up or down?

I was weighing up 4 bets overnight, 3/4 selections won, the one I ended up backing Garbine Muguruza is the one that lost 2-1.

Then I rage bet $100 this morning on the Washington Capitals and they are about to lose 3-2 at home.

You need to manage your money so you dont rage trade. Set a limit on how much you can deposit into your bank or your bet size which you can do on most accounts. Hide your money into difficult to remove money accounts so you can transfer only overnight or its in a term deposit so you have to beg to get it released.
Trust me ive been there and rage bet heaps. Its only when i did the above that i respected money and was very careful in what i bet on. Now i rage bet again but i only bet for fun but i still hide my money and limit my accounts to the minimum

 

[juss]

I just subscribed to an online betting tracker too to help get some insights and it's really valuable. Amazing seeing it all there where you make and lose money. I've effectively cut out certain sports that I thought I was doing well in but actually was leaking money over time.

 

[adammania9]

I strongly recommend keeping an Excel tracker of all the bets you place, so you're on top of what you've won or lost. There are some good templates online, I downloaded the results of a professional tipper and just changed all the numbers to suit what I've done.

The main downside to it all is that if you're like me and recently lost money, big or small, you tend to dwell on it and keep thinking about winning it back, so that's where you've gotta be disciplined and not go nuts.

It is a very common trend for punters to think they're doing well when they're not because you remember all your wins but forget your losses. Have you really "won" $500 if you lost $1000 before?

 

[juss]

I strongly recommend keeping an Excel tracker of all the bets you place, so you're on top of what you've won or lost. There are some good templates online, I downloaded the results of a professional tipper and just changed all the numbers to suit what I've done.

The main downside to it all is that if you're like me and recently lost money, big or small, you tend to dwell on it and keep thinking about winning it back, so that's where you've gotta be disciplined and not go nuts.

It is a very common trend for punters to think they're doing well when they're not because you remember all your wins but forget your losses. Have you really "won" $500 if you lost $1000 before?

Yep 100%.

I've also learnt realistic long term expectations are important. This isn't a get rich quick scheme to turn $500 into $5000. Sure, it can be done as a once off with luck, but no one is doing that consistently over the long term.

A 5% ROI is good. That would mean turning $500 into $525 over the set period, yet imagine betting for a month only to be $25 up? If you got to $600, that's a 20% ROI.
$100 over a month doesn't sound like much though does it? Yet thats a better return on investment then just about any other pro gambler out there and way better then any financial investments.

If you could do that month on month a 20% ROI, you'd be retiring very quickly.

I need to start looking more at ROI rather than $$ made.

 

[54Dogs]

Without trying to sound supercilious, I think the intentions in this thread are good but there's a level of reality around goals and expectations which needs to be factored in.

Take racing, if you are trying to make a profit against the corps you are immediately at a 20% disadvantage just to break even. More to be profitable. So you need to be 20-25% better consistently than corps who have armies of analysts, algorythmic models and inside information plus knowledge of where the pros are focussed. You are not going to pick up the form guide on a Sat morning, do an hours analysis and consistently beat that.

If you are playing on BF you are competing against pros, traders, bots, arbers, courtsiders, and market manipulators who all have high speed 3rd party software and will scoop up the easy cash before you get near it.

The only way to consistently win is find a small niche in the market where you have an edge and have the discipline to stay inside it. Then when that niche is closed, which it will be, move on and find the next one. It's not easy, it's not fun, it's hard work and will only be consistently profitable if you have the discipline to stay in your lane. If you think the edge will be more than 1-2% of turnover then think again.

 

[come on oliver]

As good a strike rate as the Wednesday punt

 

[ash_1050]

As good a strike rate as the Wednesday punt

I won $500 worth of scratchies back when Melbourne Victory were sponsorted by Intralot. Out of that $500 worth they returned $270 for a net loss of $230. Absolute scam of a product.

 

[99 Problems]

Without trying to sound supercilious, I think the intentions in this thread are good but there's a level of reality around goals and expectations which needs to be factored in.

Take racing, if you are trying to make a profit against the corps you are immediately at a 20% disadvantage just to break even. More to be profitable. So you need to be 20-25% better consistently than corps who have armies of analysts, algorythmic models and inside information plus knowledge of where the pros are focussed. You are not going to pick up the form guide on a Sat morning, do an hours analysis and consistently beat that.

If you are playing on BF you are competing against pros, traders, bots, arbers, courtsiders, and market manipulators who all have high speed 3rd party software and will scoop up the easy cash before you get near it.

The only way to consistently win is find a small niche in the market where you have an edge and have the discipline to stay inside it. Then when that niche is closed, which it will be, move on and find the next one. It's not easy, it's not fun, it's hard work and will only be consistently profitable if you have the discipline to stay in your lane. If you think the edge will be more than 1-2% of turnover then think again.

Spot on. I’d also add that punters need to accept that variance will play its part and you just have to cop it. You can do everything right for a couple of months and still be in the negative, or do the exact same thing and finish with a massive ROI. It’s a long term game and you’ll cop ups and downs, as long as your process is right and you stay disciplined you’ll be ok.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Without trying to sound supercilious, I think the intentions in this thread are good but there's a level of reality around goals and expectations which needs to be factored in.

Take racing, if you are trying to make a profit against the corps you are immediately at a 20% disadvantage just to break even. More to be profitable. So you need to be 20-25% better consistently than corps who have armies of analysts, algorythmic models and inside information plus knowledge of where the pros are focussed. You are not going to pick up the form guide on a Sat morning, do an hours analysis and consistently beat that.

If you are playing on BF you are competing against pros, traders, bots, arbers, courtsiders, and market manipulators who all have high speed 3rd party software and will scoop up the easy cash before you get near it.

The only way to consistently win is find a small niche in the market where you have an edge and have the discipline to stay inside it. Then when that niche is closed, which it will be, move on and find the next one. It's not easy, it's not fun, it's hard work and will only be consistently profitable if you have the discipline to stay in your lane. If you think the edge will be more than 1-2% of turnover then think again.

Should really be aiming for higher than 1-2% POT in racing unless you are trading. "breaking even" tends to lead into false sense of success awaiting a bad run where it all goes downhill as it is much more likely than the alternate spike into profit.

 

[juss]

Without trying to sound supercilious, I think the intentions in this thread are good but there's a level of reality around goals and expectations which needs to be factored in.

Take racing, if you are trying to make a profit against the corps you are immediately at a 20% disadvantage just to break even. More to be profitable. So you need to be 20-25% better consistently than corps who have armies of analysts, algorythmic models and inside information plus knowledge of where the pros are focussed. You are not going to pick up the form guide on a Sat morning, do an hours analysis and consistently beat that.

If you are playing on BF you are competing against pros, traders, bots, arbers, courtsiders, and market manipulators who all have high speed 3rd party software and will scoop up the easy cash before you get near it.

The only way to consistently win is find a small niche in the market where you have an edge and have the discipline to stay inside it. Then when that niche is closed, which it will be, move on and find the next one. It's not easy, it's not fun, it's hard work and will only be consistently profitable if you have the discipline to stay in your lane. If you think the edge will be more than 1-2% of turnover then think again.

That's what I mean about trying to change my realistic expectations personally.

I've turned a couple hundred into a few more hundred on occasion through nothing more than a bit of research and thought on likely winners. I thought to myself why couldn't I do this again and again? But that's not how the game works.

5% ROI long term is great, and from examples I've seen is achievable for a smart punter doing it right with discipline. Anything more and you're unlikely to get their without software, a very good data model, odds analysis and probably a trader bot on your side.

 

[MITS]

What the * is a profit?

 

[Hamingja]

View attachment 830902

As good a strike rate as the Wednesday punt

I went into the newsagency the other week and bought a tattslotto ticket. Was filling it out on the bench thinking wtf is all this s**t all over the table. Then it hit me that it was scratchy shavings. Someone must have went to town on about 100 of them, it was just everywhere.

 

[Minidisc MD]

the blonde chick down the pub in the denim shorts and Doc Martens said to me once, after I'd embarrassingly picked up my $10 win on the dishies at 8:30 on a Saturday night, "it's okay - I was addicted to scratchies for a while there". cutest thing i've ever heard.

 

[come on oliver]

the blonde chick down the pub in the denim shorts and Doc Martens said to me once, after I'd embarrassingly picked up my $10 win on the dishies at 8:30 on a Saturday night, "it's okay - I was addicted to scratchies for a while there". cutest thing i've ever heard.

This is great

 

[54Dogs]

For anyone looking to deepen their knowledge / improve results the Business of Betting podcast series is worth a listen, there's over 100 podcasts on a range of topics.

I'd recommend starting with Ep 89, an interview with the CEO of TopSport which talks about their model and how they frame markets.

The Business of Betting Podcast

The Business of Betting PODCAST delves into the business side of the wagering, betting, investing and gambling industries. -Sports Betting -Sports Gambling -Horse Racing

businessofbetting.com

 

[HeathySure]

For anyone looking to deepen their knowledge / improve results the Business of Betting podcast series is worth a listen, there's over 100 podcasts on a range of topics.

I'd recommend starting with Ep 89, an interview with the CEO of TopSport which talks about their model and how they frame markets.

The Business of Betting Podcast

The Business of Betting PODCAST delves into the business side of the wagering, betting, investing and gambling industries. -Sports Betting -Sports Gambling -Horse Racing

businessofbetting.com

i also like the cheezy intro music and his weird autistic like way of asking questions! Theres a lot of great episodes but also a lot of repetitive dross. I think he is struggling to find new guests so it might be worth while going back into the archives and finding older episodes in which you are interested in.
I personally like the horse racing bookie type episodes but he hasnt done many of those lately.[/QUOTE]

 

[Minidisc MD]

i also like the cheezy intro music and his weird autistic like way of asking questions! Theres a lot of great episodes but also a lot of repetitive dross. I think he is struggling to find new guests so it might be worth while going back into the archives and finding older episodes in which you are interested in.
I personally like the horse racing bookie type episodes but he hasnt done many of those lately.

Borderline autists make the worst punters.

one of my good mates now and definitely my puntiest mate, back in school he was obsessed with sport. massive Kangaroos fan, hated the Eagles, would walk over to you in English with a rudely ripped bit of paper and an oblong footy oval drawn and go: "best 18 of three club playes, go". this is all pre-omnipresent iPhones too. looking up third division Hungarian handball, weird fascination with Iceland and its sports, the non-football teams of massive, er, football clubs like Barcelona, Panathinaikos, and Galatasaray... loved a stat... anyway I didnt actually chat to my two best school mates for about seven years and now we all sit down the pub, united by #memz. anyway it transpired he was 'into gambling' and me and my other mate are like oh s**t, here we go, *in aye, it's all coming together, this guy's going to *in kill the multis!

turns out he goes to the EBT, chucks on 5 bucks worth of 50 cent mystery trifectas, backs whatever dog is jumping on the second-from-outside, and listens to his moronic mates in a facebook 'syndicate' (puffing cigars with Al Capone and planning the next Kentucky Derby winner, this is not) on what horse to back. the guy is a bumblin fool, absolute 0 clue on the punt and routinely loses it all.

point is these people are no better than you or me on the $2 on the rank outsider at Meydan when they're stacking up the stools.

 

[chasbestos]

sad thread, need drill sergeant duritz here to go screamo on you lot.

punting is very easy, getting enough on, is not...

 

[mouncey2franklin]

If you were actually making money, wouldn't they just ban you?

 

[come on oliver]

For anyone looking to deepen their knowledge / improve results the Business of Betting podcast series is worth a listen, there's over 100 podcasts on a range of topics.

I'd recommend starting with Ep 89, an interview with the CEO of TopSport which talks about their model and how they frame markets.

The Business of Betting Podcast

The Business of Betting PODCAST delves into the business side of the wagering, betting, investing and gambling industries. -Sports Betting -Sports Gambling -Horse Racing

businessofbetting.com

Second this. Is a good listen even for the occasional punter. Some great interviews

 

[juss]

If you were actually making money, wouldn't they just ban you?

The corporates do which is why you have to combine using an exchange like Betfair who don't ban you, and also having multiple corporate accounts where you occasionally lose one deliberately because you are hedging/arbing with another bookie.

Between that and your actual losses, it reduces the ban. It's extremely quick and easy to get promo banned though.

I haven't done this but I also know some winning punters who put a tiny percentage of their winning profits into high risk but huge reward multi bets to make their accounts seem less intelligent.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The corporates do which is why you have to combine using an exchange like Betfair who don't ban you, and also having multiple corporate accounts where you occasionally lose one deliberately because you are hedging/arbing with another bookie.

Between that and your actual losses, it reduces the ban. It's extremely quick and easy to get promo banned though.

I haven't done this but I also know some winning punters who put a tiny percentage of their winning profits into high risk but huge reward multi bets to make their accounts seem less intelligent.

I don’t see the point of deliberately losing, even if well executed it seems a laborious way to hide your account. multi’s are ok though.

 

[juss]

I don’t see the point of deliberately losing, even if well executed it seems a laborious way to hide your account. multi’s are ok though.

Poorly worded, it's not deliberately losing its betting two possible outcomes and different bookies knowing one will lose because you are hedging/arbing with a bonus bet or inflated odds, etc. To the bookie it just looks like a lost bet.