Opinion Where to from here?

[Heckler]

The 2014 season is over
We had quite a few holes to plug
Some through injury
Some due to poor decisions
Gave games to exciting young talent
Some older stars have faded.
We hung on to 4th but were never a real threat.
It is what it is.
A year in transition.

Rather than looking back and complaining
(start your own complaints thread for that)
Turn your thoughts to what needs to be done to improve.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?
There's a lot to cover
Players, Coaches, Assistants, Tactics
Forwards Defenders Mid Field and Rucks
So keep adding comments through the off season

Chris Scott has received plenty of criticism here
especially by those using hindsight for things didn't work out.
I reckon he is a pretty astute coach
He knows that is going on and is a good communicator
Also he will learn from his mistakes
He made some tough calls that needed to be made
Pods, Chappy and J Hunt moved on
Then was hampered by critical injuries
Vardy Bundy Motlop Caddy missed early
This resulted in a loss of depth
with under done players selected
The kittens we played will help fix that next year.
A couple of the older stars were ordinary at best this year
Yes some stars need to move on.
However it's not the Geelong way to be ruthless and just delist our stars.
They will make way gradually to the wave of youth at the selection table
pass on their knowledge and retire with dignity.
We can't rush the kittens
They develop best with experience around them

 

[Bobby_]

Pods, Chappy and J Hunt moved on

Please don't forget Smithy as he was a much better performer in his final season than any of those three collectively.
The most underrated player I think we ever had (along with Milburn).

 

[Heckler]

Rucks.
Once again the weakest link in our team
Simpson remains injury prone
He tries hard and gives it his best
He still lacks experience and doesn't do enough around the ground.
He needs to work hard on his marking and ruck craft.
If he breaks down again next year he needs to retire

HMac. I'm worried his best is well behind him
when he missed v North, everyone I spoke to thought this to be a plus
He's the best we've got in our weakest position and is considered a liability.
Sadly I just can't see him improving to warrant keeping.

We need to find a dominant ruckman urgently.
Our drafting policy... best available player will deliver more midfielders
If there is a great ruck prospect I'd pick him instead
I'm not sure Wells has a good record recruiting ruckmen.

We should also be in a position to trade fading stars for a top ruckman.
MvEvoy is 3rd choice at Hawthorn and could be lured away.
I'd even go searching for a 7' plus giant basketballer from the USA

 

[Heckler]

Please don't forget Smithy as he was a much better performer in his final season than any of those three collectively.
The most underrated player I think we ever had (along with Milburn).

Corey retired the others wanted to play on
CS expected Bundy and Caddy to fill the void

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Won't get anywhere with Chris Scott at the helm.

 

[Bobby_]

they did fill the void but Corey was still taped on the shoulder as all of those youngsters plus GHS needed to be blooded.
Will pay off in the long run, but not at the moment.

I think your right though, our injuries are a major concern and I thought it would be corrected when we got in the new sports scientist but it's probably going to be a gradual improvement over time.
Watching Motlop struggle to sprint on Friday night was sad, to lose both rucks before finals began was probably the final nail in the coffin.

 

[illavitar]

Club has gone from a hard right wing Aryan Tom Harley grammar school to a late night negative Gen Y pizza eating drink driving depression ring over the last few years.

Don't know whether to blame Scott for that or just our desperation/misfortune with mediocre youth. But I don't see us winning a flag in years with the culture we've/we're degenerating into.

 

[Strangled Cat]

Won't get anywhere with Chris Scott at the helm.

Are you being a deliberate flog, or didn't you read the OP?

 

[illavitar]

Can't we just hire Scarlo to flog all the shit trucks in the back car park?? Perhaps that's why we've endured some shit truckiness ever since he's left??

 

[kimodgers]

Where to from here??

2017!! Not 2015 or 2016.

After the disappointment of 2012 I posted that 2015 should be the next target. Sure we had the cattle to have a tilt at 2013 & 2014 (& we did) but that's all we did - we had a 'tilt'. We were competitive and we were good enough to probably make the Preliminary each year. But that was about the measure of the potential. Unbelievably good performance for a quality but declining grade 'A' group of players.

The tough love tactic that Geelong's match committee should adopt now is to thank those '07, '09, & '11 Warriors for their services & move on. The cry back in '05 was 'Plan A, play the kids', 'Plan B, refer to Plan A'. Same again now & it will work. Play (all) the kids next year even at the expense of the Kellys, Lonnegens, (gasp) Bartels, Mackies, etc, etc. Our existing kids, & those we pick up next year, will be unlikely to have the game day skills of the Kelly's, etc, but I would nevertheless put them on the park as first choice from game 1. For example, find a spot for Hamling & let him grow into it. I would rather finish 10th in '15 & '16 and be in a good position for 2017 than finish 6-8 over the next 2 years & no potential to do better in 2017.

Tough love. But thats footy. For 2017 to work we need a balanced mix of 50 gamers, 100 & 150. Time to build.

Meanwhile, I have 3 Premiership plaques on my wall to remind me of one of the greatest Geelong eras of all time.

 

[Moneypenny]

Getting back on to the interesting topic, I think next year we won't really know what's going to happen until a few things come to pass, namely
a) trade season
b) draft season
c) pre-season
d) practice matches

The comings and goings will be interesting to see, as well as the drip feeding of information over the summer months of how the club responds to what happened this year. I will firstly say I have no idea, but I'm pretty sure a few things will occur in 2015:

• A top 4/8 finish
• A tight contest between natural progression vs natural decline
• Josh Caddy, Mitch Duncan, Allen Christensen, GHS stepping up their roles as leaders of the team
• Injuries - unavoidable, just hope they're minor
• A few close finishes and some gallant defeats
• Selwood and Tom H continuing on from that last 15 mins
• Ruck question will still be that
• CHF will continue to cause debate
• A few exciting debuts

Do you think there is the possibility that some players will push their more senior counterparts out of the team à la 2011? It'd be warranted, that's for sure.

Anyway, bring it on!

 

[Moggy]

I think it is still crucial to keep a core of old heads to nurture the younglings on the field - as well as off it.
So, for me, we don't throw out all the older blokes, but we should sail closer to the wind than we have done, in terms of exposing the young potential to matches that matter.

I would like to see much more of McCarthy, Bews, Thurlow, as well as some of guys like Hamling, Lang, Jansen.

The come-backs of Menzel, Vardy, Simpson and Cowan will obviously come into sharp focus during 2015. If we can get two of those fit and robust then we will be doing well. We need to make strong calls in case of relapses.

One other comment... I have read several posts recently saying that we should move on our players who have been on the list for 3 or 4 seasons without breaking into the team and draft kids in to replace them. I disagree. Hawthorn's ability to prepare guys for a few extra years, relative to lower ranked clubs that throw them into the side as a necessity, is often, and righty, seen as the mark of a strong club and a great way to maintain a high standard, as the guys are physically developed and well-used to the systems and tactics before they are thrown into the spotlight. We should look at our guys the same way and really give them a chance to perform in 2015. Brown is the obvious one, but there are others.

 

[Strangled Cat]

Where to from here? We need to sort out our ruck situation urgently. How? I don't know, given that it seems certain that in the Free Agency period, our only target will be Frawley. Do we draft one and hope that they develop quickly? Is there any ruckmen we can target in the trade period? Simpson and Hmac aren't the answer, I don't think.

We need to look at some midfield depth. I think that we're one outside mid short of where we need to be at. Varcoe won't ever be that kind of player, that much is certain. Christensen is a versatile mid, both inside and outside, but in injury prone. Motlop is an absolute gun when he's on, but we can't just rely on him. I have high hopes for Lang being a gut running outside mid, but he'll need a lot more games before we know where he's really at. I would LOVE us to make a big play for Danger once he becomes a Free Agent. Selwood, Caddy, Motlop and Dangerfield would be the stuff of dreams!

Frawley will shore up the defence and ease the pain of Lonners retiring. I expect Lonners to hang the boots up at the end of 2015, along with Enright. Kelly, Mackie, Jonhnson and Bartel all may do the same, but the former two mentioned are almost certain to retire, so we've got one year to transition our defence. Kolo, Bews and Hamling must get games next year, and with the latter, it's critical as we need to see whether he has what it takes to make it. Oh, and please GFC, do not play Smedts in defence. I'd like to see Billie play wing and/or high HF. If he can't cement his spot in that position by the end of next year, then it's time to move him on.

The forward line is where it gets interesting. Tom Hawkins is a colossus who shook off the 2013 back problems to exceed his 2012 year IMO. He struggled for most of the year, having to shoulder most of the forward duties all by himself. His form on Friday night was amazing, but I believe that Josh Walker had something to do with that. Josh has proven to be a brilliant contested mark, backing up a reasonable effort against the Hawks with a great effort on Friday night. Josh HAS to be given games and more importantly, development to be that CHF which we so badly need. On the back of what he's shown in the last three weeks, he deserves that.

We've spoken at length about the big man situation. Right now, Josh is well ahead of the rest, and has to be considered well ahead of Vardy and Kersten. Hopefully those two put pressure on to get into the side next year. But right now, I'd like to turn our attention to the small forward situation, as I believe that they're as equally important as big men. Who will step up in 2015? I've loved what I've seen from McCarthy and believe that he should get a bit of game time next year. Will Burbury get his mojo back and find a way back into the best 22? Will Menzel be a factor at all? In 2015, and beyond? We certainly can't bank on anything. We can just sit and hope.

Whatever happens from here, we're now at a crossroad and I hope like hell that the club make the right calls to ensure that once again this great football club of ours remains competitive for many more years to come.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Getting back on to the interesting topic, I think next year we won't really know what's going to happen until a few things come to pass, namely
a) trade season
b) draft season
c) pre-season
d) practice matches

Exactly Moneypenny , points a,b & c in particular will shape 2015 enormously.
As mere supporters we're usually in a position of ignorance when it comes to which way 'we're' going until after the fact (save for the occasional solid source).
That won't stop the torrents of robust debate and wild speculation in the interim, and that's fair enough.
I'll probably wait for the delistings/retirements to be announced before indulging in my own speculation, but clearly the ruck is a major concern and something needs to be resolved there.

 

[Daniel McL]

Round 1: Geelong vs Hawthorn

-Can see Jansen & Kolodjashnij making their debuts after a big pre-season.
-Not sure if we would risk Vardy & Menzel in AFL Round 1 against such a big opponent but I guess if their NAB Challenge form is good enough then we should have faith in them (Menzel SUB for sure).
-If we stick to the youth policy then could see Hartman, Lang & Hamling all play as well but with no retirees it's looking like then there will still be all the senior players from this year.
-Frawley on Gunston sounds good
-Bring on 2015!

 

[kicksome]

chris scott comes across as if he should be a list manager before being a head coach

 

[Rainfall]

Don't really mind just hope Varcoe is gone, Frawley is in and lastly Thurlow and Bews get 20 matches minimum

 

[Two Planks]

Would love to get some clarity on the clearances issue. Is it ruckman or lack of, is it tactical, is it midfielders or is it just not a priority.

Want to see lang hartman jansen play ten plus games next year.

Dont want to hear of operations in February and be told that the player was battling the injury all pre season.

 

[Jagshemash]

One other comment... I have read several posts recently saying that we should move on our players who have been on the list for 3 or 4 seasons without breaking into the team and draft kids in to replace them. I disagree. Hawthorn's ability to prepare guys for a few extra years, relative to lower ranked clubs that throw them into the side as a necessity, is often, and righty, seen as the mark of a strong club and a great way to maintain a high standard, as the guys are physically developed and well-used to the systems and tactics before they are thrown into the spotlight. We should look at our guys the same way and really give them a chance to perform in 2015. Brown is the obvious one, but there are others.

I agree with this in principle. However, when you take into account we have 4-5 guys that seem to be constantly unavailable due to injury and they wish to keep this guys, then it's the fringe players that have to go this year to stop there from being potentially 10-12 exits next year.

 

[Moggy]

I totally agree on the chronically injured. Really bad luck for those young men, but the club comes first and tough calls have to be made if bodies break down again.

I was more talking about guys who have, recently at least, been fairly fit but just starved of chances. Brown, Schroeder, Hamling, Burbury, McCarthy maybe Stringer.

From what CS said on Sunday, most if not all of the older blokes are contracted for 2015, so I think we need to replicate the final year of Milburn and Mooney with these guys rather than play them 23 times. Worked ok in 2011 ;-)

Oh, and agree with recent posts on the ruck situation!

 

[cynical]

we won 3 flags on the back of making tough calls on older blokes

we need to get back to that kind of ruthlessness

the team should be mostly kids with a sprinkling of experience

none of this lets make top 4 and rebuild at the same time rubbish, if we don't make finals next year it'll be a good year

 

[Claude Balls]

Well, I guess the first thing to do is analyse the list and determine WHEN we are likely to seriously challenge again. And obviously the answer to that question will be affected in part by the steps taken after the analysis.

Some considerations for the rebuild:

1. Hawkins-Selwood-Taylor represent arguably the best, or at least structurally most valuable top-3 of any club. Would be ideal to rebuild the list around them before they are diminished.

2. Teams generally don't win a flag with 7-8 stars but an ordinary bottom 6. I.e. we can't rely solely on FA.

3. If you want to build a premiership winning list from the draft, you need more than 3-4 picks a year. Or, you need to do what no recruiter has ever done, and nail 3 out of 4 each year.

4. If there's one thing that most, if not all premiership teams have in common, it's an A-grade midfield with good depth. We are currently lacking in this dept, and the youth coming through looks ill equipped to provide sufficient remedy.


Plenty more to think about, obviously, but as of right now, these are the key ones for me, relative to our list.

What worries me most is that it looks like we are not going to have more than 2 or 3 picks in this year's draft. This worries me because I believe we currently don't have enough genuinely talented young players on the list, and thus, even in the unlikely event that we manage to land 3-4 good to great players over the next few years (such as Frawley, Danger, Selwood, and a ruck), we may find ourselves in category 2, above.

Alternatively, if we focus heavily on the draft - retire not a few oldies and chase only one or two FAs so that we have 12+ picks over the next 2 years - we're talking an entirely new era. I.e. Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor, Frawley if we get him, will likely be gone or on one leg by the time the new crop has ripened.

So for me, we need both FAs and quality draft picks, which means no trading of our picks this year in order to get guys who will be FAs next year. Essentially I don't believe any amount of cunning trading and FA recruiting this year will see us lift the cup next year, so we may as well do what we can to improve our position in the draft this year and next, and then go hard as woodpecker lips for FAs that will remedy structural weakness thereafter.

 

[Claude Balls]

I should add that I believe top line kids, not talented but injured/underdeveloped versatile players (the Wells special of late), are capable of making serious, and semi consistent constributions with as little as two preseasons and 30 games under their belt.

Drawing a line at Guthrie, we have the following:

Guthrie
Blicavs
Bundy
Motlop
Duncan
Caddy
Taylor
Hawkins
Selwood

That's 9 players who we can safely say will 'make it', or indeed have already made it well and truly, and who are young enough to be around for the next tilt. Even if we add 3 great gets via FA, to bring the list to 12, that's 10 more positions on the field to fill. Can those 10 be filled adequately by the likes of GHS, Smedts, Murdoch, Walker, McCarthy et al. Or guys who look talented but have less experience, such as Bews, Thurlow, Jansen, Lang, Hartman? Basically ALL of them would have to make it for us to have a premiership quality list. And when I say make it, I mean become good enough to avoid as falling into category 2. Great top 6-8, ordinary bottom 6-8.

The more I think about it the more I think we desperately need to get as many quality kids into the club during the next two drafts. That and landing big fish via FA are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Claude Balls]

Dont want to hear of operations in February and be told that the player was battling the injury all pre season.

Indeed.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

they did fill the void but Corey was still taped on the shoulder as all of those youngsters plus GHS needed to be blooded.
Will pay off in the long run, but not at the moment.

Is there any evidence that actually happened?

I think we will go in to next season with a pretty similar-looking squad to the one that we had this year, in terms of our top 30 players. Frawley might come straight into the 22, but apart from him, the improvement will be internal. We need to assume that our senior core of players between the 120-200 game mark (Varcoe, Taylor, Lonergan, Selwood, McIntosh, Rivers, Hawkins, Stokes) will pretty much maintain its production from 2014, if not improve. We need our 200> players (Bartel, Mackie, Kelly, Johnson, Enright) to pretty much maintain their production as a whole (tough ask). We need some of our now-established younger players (Simpson, Murdoch, Duncan, Caddy, Christensen, Guthrie, Motlop, GHS, Blicavs), to take the next step and we need at least a few of the developing players on the periphery of senior selection (Brown, Smedts, McCarthy, Lang, Bews, Vardy, Burbury, Walker, Hartman, Kersten, Thurlow) to establish themselves as regular senior players.

The main thing is that if any of the 200> gamers drop off, one of those younger players that is now pretty much a permanent in the firsts steps up his game to fill that void and one of the developing players that was in and out in 2014 steps up to fill the resulting void. For example, if Johnson's game starts to show significant signs of decline, we need to be able to rely on a second tier player like Duncan, Caddy, Christensen, Guthrie or GHS stepping up and becoming a genuine week-in/week-out star of the competition. But further than that, we'd need a player from the third tier (someone like Smedts or Lang) also stepping up in proportion, to make up that spot in the second tier.

We won't be losing anything in the way of regular senior contributors from this year, unless injuries intervene. We could very easily have a better run with injuries and that, combined with the possible arrival of Frawley would mean a significantly stronger squad, on paper. But improvement - or decline - is going to come from within and will be a case of how many players are improving and how many players are declining.

My personal opinion is that 2015 is the last genuine tilt at the flag and then it will be a couple of years of mini-rebuild.