Analysis Where to from here?

[kickazz]

For what it's worth, the markets have us pretty clear favourites to beat GWS. Currently around 1.59 to 2.72.

I know we were even clearer favourites last time we played them, but that will be factored in to the current price. By no means certainties, but it seems more generally there may not be as much pessimism about us next week?

 

[Poetic Justice]

This. I made a comment in another thread that in the 3 games so far every team has lifted the intensity and had a serious crack except us.
No idea what the go is. It’s embarrassing.

Because they’re told that the game plan will stand up and that extra pressure is not necessarily required

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Good post......like you said, we're still in it, so there's hope, but geez it's hard to see past GWS.

We can't beat Greene, let alone his teammates. Anyhow, there's still a heartbeat so we're a chance.

But I want to see them have a fair dinkum crack, as if their lives depend on it

Yep, we really need to see a response this week, exactly like you described. As you say, there is still a heartbeat. I hope the team can draw inspiration from that 2017 Semi against the Swans. The Swans had previously had our measure in a big way, we seemingly just could not match up with them and beat them. But we came out breathing fire, the pressure was off the charts, and we had that game won at half time.

I had given up on us before that Swans game, like most others, but I learnt that night that you never know what can happen in a game, and that results aren't decided before the first bounce. Anything can happen on the night. We're battling with injuries right now, and all hope seems lost, but imagine we beat the Giants and Gawn goes down in the first quarter in the prelim?? The Dees would be in dire straights. Maybe the Dees come out flat like us Friday night and get blown away early? Who knows, anything can happen.

We're up against it, but unlike the Swans, and possibly the Dogs tonight, we're still alive.

 

[Down at K Park]

Can anyone remember the last time rohan used to speed to run someone down? He used to do it all the time. He’s just about invisible out on the field now. Another one who looks cooked.

 

[Cataholic]

This. I made a comment in another thread that in the 3 games so far every team has lifted the intensity and had a serious crack except us.
No idea what the go is. It’s embarrassing.

Our finals record of rolling over and capitulating with barely a whimper is the reason fans are getting annoyed.

Losing after giving your all, cracking in as hard as you can is one thing, but to disintegrate and go to water at the first sign of determination by your opposition is another.

We get all the glib announcements about being 'steeled and galvanised' for each final only for our actions to make a complete mockery of them.

Watching the other finalists you see desperation, a determination to win, an effort to run and tackle harder, whilst we jog around, fumble and guard space.

We're lacking hunger in the heart and determination between the ears.

 

[Cataholic]

Can anyone remember the last time rohan used to speed to run someone down? He used to do it all the time. He’s just about invisible out on the field now. Another one who looks cooked.

Not cooked, but Cuthrie hasn't looked interested in the contest the last couple of weeks either.

 

[kickazz]

It's all mental. I actually think we started well against Port, apart from kicking it to Aliir. That's it. If not for that we probably go to q time 2 goals up and then we probably actually try properly in the second quarter.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Can anyone remember the last time rohan used to speed to run someone down? He used to do it all the time. He’s just about invisible out on the field now. Another one who looks cooked.

His role as a third target is a little different now.

 

[thecatattack]

How can you possibly come to this conclusion after what we dished up Friday night? If we somehow beat GWS Melbourne will beat us by 10 goals plus.

Last year we lost to Port week 1 and steamrolled the next 2 games to make the GF.

A few weeks ago we were flag favorites, a week ago we put like 8 straight against Melbourne and had a 44pt lead.

People historically underrated the QF losers and overrate the EF winners. We'll probably make the PF and we've shown that we can get on top of Melbourne, 8 days ago. I get we're all down on us after Friday night, I am too. But we're genuinely good enough to beat GWS and Melbourne.

 

[Commando]

How can you possibly come to this conclusion after what we dished up Friday night? If we somehow beat GWS Melbourne will beat us by 10 goals plus.

we should beat GWS, simply because history says the losing QF team bounces back

not saying we’d beat Melbourne but it’s preferable to a Brisbane prelim

then if we somehow landed in a grand final it’s probably port in Perth

now I’m not saying this will happen but it’s not as bad a situation at it potentially could have been

edit: quarantine requirements are the curveball too, great unknown

 

[Commando]

For what it's worth, the markets have us pretty clear favourites to beat GWS. Currently around 1.59 to 2.72.

I know we were even clearer favourites last time we played them, but that will be factored in to the current price. By no means certainties, but it seems more generally there may not be as much pessimism about us next week?

odds probably factor in Greene missing through suspension

 

[Down at K Park]

Good post......like you said, we're still in it, so there's hope, but geez it's hard to see past GWS.

We can't beat Greene, let alone his teammates. Anyhow, there's still a heartbeat so we're a chance.

But I want to see them have a fair dinkum crack, as if their lives depend on it

Spot on. I just want to see some effort and heart. If we stroll up and roll over we are done for, it’s off the cliff and down the ladder big time.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

For what it's worth, the markets have us pretty clear favourites to beat GWS. Currently around 1.59 to 2.72.

I know we were even clearer favourites last time we played them, but that will be factored in to the current price. By no means certainties, but it seems more generally there may not be as much pessimism about us next week?

Yeah, we should be favourites. We had a stinker Friday night, but we've played some great footy at times this year and at half time in last weeks game against the Dees, we were flag favourites, minor premiers etc, before it's all gone downhill since.

I watched the GWS v Swans game yesterday, GWS fell over the line in a big way in what was a very bruising and physical game. It was the perfect result for us as GWS looked absolutely shot in the last. Sydney kicked 2.7 to GWS' one behind in the last quarter. It was a malling and Sydney kicked themselves out of a win.

I know the Giants have matched up well against us recently, but looking at that last quarter, I think we should be pleased they won as Sydney looked fit, fresh and dangerous. Hopefully GWS will be roadkill like the Pies in last years Semi and we can be fresh against the Dees the week after. I was initially hoping for a Sydney win, but I started barracking for GWS to hold on in the last. I looked at their coaches expression at the end, he did not look excited, it's almost as if he knew that might have been their GF. I might be reading too much into it, time will tell.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Last year we lost to Port week 1 and steamrolled the next 2 games to make the GF.

A few weeks ago we were flag favorites, a week ago we put like 8 straight against Melbourne and had a 44pt lead.

People historically underrated the QF losers and overrate the EF winners. We'll probably make the PF and we've shown that we can get on top of Melbourne, 8 days ago. I get we're all down on us after Friday night, I am too. But we're genuinely good enough to beat GWS and Melbourne.

Last year we had a bye before the finals. This year you can tell they prepared their finals assault around the bye still going ahead.
With it being scrapped, we look very tired and un motivated. If we somehow beat GWS our only hope would be for the AFL to bring the bye back in before the prelim - which they won’t do as Melbourne would have 2 weeks off.
This is why we needed to beat port. It wasn’t as important last year because we had the bye.

 

[Cursed Cat]

First priority in 2022 is to get games into Sam De Koning quick smart.

I wanted him exposed more this season but was told off-season that it was a foolish idea given we were apparently so close to a flag.

Well a big issue with this current model Geelong team is that 2 of our key defensive post-Harry Taylor options have serious flaws to their games; Henderson counterpunches well when at his best, but he has been consistently out-marked by tall forwards this year in a way that even a banged-up Harry never would.

And Mark Blicavs

46

Mark Blicavs

Age

34

Ht

198cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.2

5star

MG

114.1

2star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

114.1

2star

D

8.6

3star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

ball use from defense is deplorable and an accident waiting to happen.

On the plus side, Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

27

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

has put his hand up for key defensive responsibility, and his balls in aerial contests a big reason that our defense hasn't completely crumbled this season - but he needs help desperately.

De Koning will have teething problems, he will cough up goals with dumb mistakes, he will turn it over and get beaten on the lead and spill marks he should have taken - but we have to back him to the hilt next year, support him as much as practicable - I am not suggesting he get a game no matter what, but the time has come to give him opportunities and show some patience in developing key defensive depth.

I'd be happy to see Krueger get more opportunities too, although I see him more as a third defensive tall than a KD proper.

 

[Hinkley29]

Completely missing the point of "accepting mediocrity"... It's not the supporters, it's the club.

Please explain how the club is accepting of mediocrity?

this should be good…

 

[gaz love x]

For what it's worth, the markets have us pretty clear favourites to beat GWS. Currently around 1.59 to 2.72.

I know we were even clearer favourites last time we played them, but that will be factored in to the current price. By no means certainties, but it seems more generally there may not be as much pessimism about us next week?

Of course we'll win, we always win the week after a humiliating QF loss. And then back to the QF form in the prelim. Semi final win, prelim loss, combined margin 80 points. Put money on it

 

[CatToTheFuture]

First priority in 2022 is to get games into Sam De Koning quick smart.

I wanted him exposed more this season but was told off-season that it was a foolish idea given we were apparently so close to a flag.

Well a big issue with this current model Geelong team is that 2 of our key defensive post-Harry Taylor options have serious flaws to their games; Henderson counterpunches well when at his best, but he has been consistently out-marked by tall forwards this year in a way that even a banged-up Harry never would.

And Mark Blicavs ball use from defense is deplorable and an accident waiting to happen.

On the plus side, Jack Henry has put his hand up for key defensive responsibility, and his balls in aerial contests a big reason that our defense hasn't completely crumbled this season - but he needs help desperately.

De Koning will have teething problems, he will cough up goals with dumb mistakes, he will turn it over and get beaten on the lead and spill marks he should have taken - but we have to back him to the hilt next year, support him as much as practicable - I am not suggesting he get a game no matter what, but the time has come to give him opportunities and show some patience in developing key defensive depth.

I'd be happy to see Krueger get more opportunities too, although I see him more as a third defensive tall than a KD proper.

I reckon Kreuger worthy of a run as the number 2 behind Blitz. SDK still a few kilos off but should be coming in for a few games. Henry I feel needs to play loose or we're missing out on his best attribute which is intercepting and rebounding

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Of course we'll win, we always win the week after a humiliating QF loss. And then back to the QF form in the prelim. Semi final win, prelim loss, combined margin 80 points. Put money on it

Well except that one time...

 

[Cursed Cat]

I reckon Kreuger worthy of a run as the number 2 behind Blitz. SDK still a few kilos off but should be coming in for a few games. Henry I feel needs to play loose or we're missing out on his best attribute which is intercepting and rebounding

nah I'm backing in SDK for a KD position for more than a handful of games, w/Krueger also getting games as a 3rd defensive tall type; that's my preference, whether we get to see that of course is up to the club.

oh and also I'd be training up Frank Evans or bloody anyone else on the list to play the type of role that Luke Dahlhaus has been filling to date.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Please explain how the club is accepting of mediocrity?

this should be good…

I'm honestly not even going to bother, there are PLENTY of public examples of exactly that, quotes from Cook and Carter, messages from AGMs and B&F nights.
If you want to ignore them, feel free.

 

[Seeds]

Oh ffs it’s not lack of effort or heart.

it’s the game plan.

 

[Seeds]

I'm honestly not even going to bother, there are PLENTY of public examples of exactly that, quotes from Cook and Carter, messages from AGMs and B&F nights.
If you want to ignore them, feel free.

I remember a radio interview from four years ago where cook stated our aim is to make top 4. From there you need luck. But the key is to get there.

we get to top 4 every year and then we just fall apart. Maybe you need more then just luck.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Of course we'll win, we always win the week after a humiliating QF loss. And then back to the QF form in the prelim. Semi final win, prelim loss, combined margin 80 points. Put money on it

If you're insistent on talking about history, the way you described it is not exactly how it went last year is it? Were you saying the same thing before we flogged Brisbane in last years prelim?? We're up against it, but the script hasn't been written as yet..

 

[xtatik222k]

I remember a radio interview from four years ago where cook stated our aim is to make top 4. From there you need luck. But the key is to get there.

we get to top 4 every year and then we just fall apart. Maybe you need more then just luck.

Yeah - Hawthorn must have gotten really lucky over the last decade. Or it could be, you know, a professional, galvanised, hard bunch of players running their guts out for 4 quarters and not accepting failure. Yeah let's just call it luck. This club will be the death of me.