Prediction Where will we finish at the end of the 2025 Home & Away season

[Ichabod Noodle]

If Geelong lose by 100 and we win by 100 we can jump up as well.

Yes, because Richmond absolutely have a chance of beating Geelong by 100 points

 

[orange tsunami]

Argh if only Melbourne didn’t choke a 3 goal lead against Collingwood and we could’ve finished top 4

 

[Adam Giant]

Argh if only Melbourne didn’t choke a 3 goal lead against Collingwood and we could’ve finished top 4

It would have been nice, but in the end it doesn’t matter too much. We finished 4th last year and went out in straight sets. Brisbane finished 5th and won the flag.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Yes, because Richmond absolutely have a chance of beating Geelong by 100 points

And even if they beat Geelong by 100 points (), and we beat St Kilda by 100 points, Geelong’s will be at 132% (dropping from their current 140.7%), and we will be at 120.7% (up from 115.5%). Any 100 point win over St Kilda will still not be enough for us to overtake Collingwood’s 122.4%.

The only chance for us to make Top 4 (besides obviously beating St Kilda), is to hope that Brisbane draw with Hawthorn. Given that Brisbane in its entire history has 9 drawn matches, and Hawthorn 13 drawn matches, the chances of that happening are exceedingly slim.

 

[Orange crush]

And even if they beat Geelong by 100 points (), and we beat St Kilda by 100 points, Geelong’s will be at 132% (dropping from their current 140.7%), and we will be at 120.7% (up from 115.5%). Any 100 point win over St Kilda will still not be enough for us to overtake Collingwood’s 122.4%.

The only chance for us to make Top 4 (besides obviously beating St Kilda), is to hope that Brisbane draw with Hawthorn. Given that Brisbane in its entire history has 9 drawn matches, and Hawthorn 13 drawn matches, the chances of that happening are exceedingly slim.

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[Land of the Giants]

If Geelong lose by 100 and we win by 100 we can jump up as well.

I went to the Foundation Member's get-together at Giants HQ this morning.

Apparently we need to beat the Saints by 121 to overtake Collingwood.

 

[Giant YoYo]

I went to the Foundation Member's get-together at Giants HQ this morning.

Apparently we need to beat the Saints by 121 to overtake Collingwood.

As unlikely as this is, this would be amazing if a similar repeat did happen tomorrow:



Would be happy to reprise this day, at just over two years ago.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

As unlikely as this is, this would be amazing if a similar repeat did happen tomorrow:

View attachment 2404486

Would be happy to reprise this day, at just over two years ago.

And although this match was the only time in our history that we have won by over 120 points, there is precedent!

 

[Colonial]

Yes, because Richmond absolutely have a chance of beating Geelong by 100 points

You never know.

Although we do now.

 

[dlanod]

I went to the Foundation Member's get-together at Giants HQ this morning.

Apparently we need to beat the Saints by 121 to overtake Collingwood.

In other breaking news, Brent Daniels is the most annoying...

 

[GWS Goose]

In other breaking news, Brent Daniels is the most annoying...

What happened to Daniels

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Well we officially MADE IT! We were to all intents and purposes in the finals after last week’s results, but there were some bizarre (albeit unlikely) permutations that could still happen.

And today’s St Kilda game was a literal heart stopper, with a loss condemning us in all probability to an elimination game against the Bulldogs at their home ground- an almost certain loss given our disappointing recent record against them.

Whilst there is still a very very slight possibility of making Top 4, if Brisbane and Hawthorn have an unlikely draw, the probability is that we will be at hosting an elimination final at Engie.

It’s a whole new stage with the finals, and I genuinely believe we have the capability to win our inaugural premiership if we play to our abilities which have been shown at times (albeit not as frequently as hoped) this season.

Kingsley’s 3rd finals campaign in his 3rd season in charge - and 3rd time lucky for us as well!

 

[GWS Goose]

Almost certainly 5th.
16 wins is a great season.

 

[Adam Giant]

16-7 is a great season that would normally result in a top 4 spot. Last year we finished 4th with a 15-8 record.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

So if Hawthorn & the Suns win we play the Suns

If Brisbane & the Suns win it comes down to percentage as to whether we play Hawthorn or the Suns (suns need a 3% turnaround to jump Hawthorn)

If the suns lose we play the dogs. But come on, Suns at home against a vfl strength team that have lost 12 in a row? That would be the upset of the century so far

If Brisbane & Hawthorn draw we play Adelaide in Adelaide with a double chance.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

So if Hawthorn & the Suns win we play the Suns

If Brisbane & the Suns win it comes down to percentage as to whether we play Hawthorn or the Suns (suns need a 3% turnaround to jump Hawthorn)

If the suns lose we play the dogs. But come on, Suns at home against a vfl strength team that have lost 12 in a row? That would be the upset of the century so far

If Brisbane & Hawthorn draw we play Adelaide in Adelaide with a double chance.

I guess our preferred outcomes in order are
1. Hawthorn and Brisbane have a very unlikely draw = we make top 4
2. Hawthorn and Gold Coast win = we play Gold Coast in the EF who, just like Geelong, our our bunnies
3. Brisbane and Gold Coast win, but Gold Coast despite playing last still don’t make up the gap to Hawthorn = we play Gold Coast in the EF who, just like Geelong, our our bunnies
4. Brisbane and Gold Coast win, and Gold Coast due to playing last and knowing the victory margins make up the gap to Hawthorn = we play Hawthorn in the EF. Tougher but doable.
5. Gold Coast lose in one of the biggest ever upsets in AFL history = not going to happen but if we have to play the EF against the Bulldogs, then so be it. If we want to win our inaugural premiership, then no team should terrify us.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Not the best outcome with Brisbane winning. We will face either Hawthorn or Gold Coast at Engie (with the usual caveat about Essendon’s VFL side springing one of the biggest upsets in AFL history, in which case we will play the Bulldogs).

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Fox Footy’s predictions with just 1 game remaining. If Gold Coast beat a weakened Essendon side by about 5 goals on Wednesday, we will play Hawthorn at Engle in our Elimination Final.

5. GWS GIANTS (16-7, 115.3%)
Round 24 result: def St Kilda by 11 pts

They needed a draw in Brisbane-Hawthorn to sneak into the top four, and didn’t get it. They’ll host either the Suns (if they win by very little vs Essendon), the Bulldogs (if the Suns lose) or the Hawks (if the Suns win by a bit).

Fox Footy’s prediction: Finish 5th, host Hawthorn in an elimination final

Lions clinch last spot in top four; one game, percentage to decide elim finals — AFL finals scenarios

Lions clinch last spot in top four; one game, percentage to decide elim finals — AFL finals scenarios

www.foxsports.com.au