Where will we finish/Will we make finals?

[TassieSaint]

So where do you guys think we will finish? I think we have a fairly easy run home, here's how I see it.

Round 14 Kangaroos @ Cararra (Interstate) - 60% Loss. Kangaroos confuse me, the only side to beat Bulldogs and Hawthorn yet also one of only two sides to lose to Fremantle. They seem to go better against good sides than bad sides, which is good for us, but we don't travel well especially to Queensland. We desperately need this win but I'm tipping a loss

Round 15 Carlton @ MCG - 90% Win. I'm going to look like a fool if we lose, but I don't rate the Blues at all. They're on the up long term but for this year at least they belong in the bottom 8, don't rate them at all this year. We've had their number for a while so I'll be expecting a win.

Round 16 Hawthorn @ Telstra Dome - 90% Loss. Hawthorn are a class above us, and this year we've struggled to beat teams on the same level never mind above. Will be too good for us.

Round 17 West Coast @ Subiaco (Interstate) - 70% Win. The House of Pain is no more and West Coast are a joke this year. This is the kind of game we could easily drop though, so we have to bring our A game. Should win though.

Round 18 Port Adelaide @ Telstra Dome - 70% Win. Port are our bogey side, but at home we are a good chance. By this time Port will probably be stealth tanking (playing numerous kids) anyway so we are a good chance.

Round 19 Collingwood @ MCG - 55% Win. Am I overrating our chances? Probably. But aside from beating the Cats the Pies have done nothing of note all year and last time we came agonisingly close to victory. Pies supporters will disagree but I think this is a 50/50 game really and my heart says we'll win

Round 20 Fremantle @ Subi (Interstate) - 80% Win. Make no mistake, it was Pav and Pav alone that kept last weekend close. We've beaten them once, without key players such as Hayes, Dal Santo, Gardiner etc., and we can do it again (hopefully) with them. By this stage they could well be tanking anyway.

Round 21 Adelaide @ Telstra Dome - 70% Loss. Adelaide's early ladder position is pretty misleading in my opinion. Only beaten one top 8 side and I think they'll finish around 7th. That said they are still a better team than us, so I'll say a loss. Winnable game though

Round 22 Essendon @ Tesltra Dome - 90% Win. Just about everything is in our favour here. It's at home, Essendon are shit, we've already beaten them and they'll probably be tanking whilst we will hopefully be making a last gasp attempt to make the 8. Should win.

That's 6 wins 3 losses which will leave us 12 - 10 at the end of the year. Cats, Dogs, Hawks, Swans and Lions won't be going anywhere, so here are the other contenders for spots 7 and 8:
Carlton: Verrry tough draw. Only play two teams below them on the ladder, Port and Richmond. Can see them only getting 1 or 2 more wins, no finals. 11/12th (depending on Port)
Richmond: Play the bottom 4, but that's about it for definite wins. I'm backing them against Carlton but that won't quite be enough for finals. 10th
Kangaroos: If the can win their next 3 (Us, Port and Collingwood) then they are just about guaranteed finals. Even if they don't they'd need to lose to both us and Collingwood to lose there spot. I'm backing them for 7th
Collingwood: 3 definite wins, 3 definite losses. The other games are the us, North and Adelaide. I'd back them against Adelaide (just) but if they lose to both us and North they won't make the 8. 9th

Conclusion: IMO it will come down to the trio of games: Us vs North, North vs Pies, Us vs Pies. Whoever wins both games will get 7th, 1 game will get 8th and two losses locks in 9th. The latter seems most likely for us but I am hoping/predicting both us and North will beat Collingwood thus giving us 8th spot, a most likely interstate final some pride and a better send off for Harves That's probably a VERY optimistic analysis though, what do other Saints fans reckon?

 

[mailman4]

Very nice run down, only thing i'd say is its alot more likely that kangaroos will drop out then collingwood imo. With the 2 subiaco games i think your predicted win % is too high, i know both teams are really quite poor this year but we still have no idea how to win on the road and almost always lose in subiaco. I'm predicting a 9th finish .

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

If anything I hope we finish 7th and play the Pies at the G in front of 90k.

If we win, Harves battles on for the flag.

If we lose, at least we can say goodbye to Harves and he can enjoy his last game in front of 90,000...

Im still thinking we'll finish 9th but hoping we'll get 8th. Just depends if we can put it all together really. If we can sneak into the 8 with a good run of wins, who knows what can happen.

 

[NeXus_Helen]

It's because of people like you TassieSaint that St kilda are the worst team in the League statiscally and historically. You need to take off those Rose-Coloured-Glasses, open your eyes and smell the coffee.

How can you honestly sit there and type the dribble above. Six wins and 3 losses. How about you put your money where your keyboard is!! I reckon we will win 2 of our last 9 games....3 maximum.

 

[TassieSaint]

It's because of people like you TassieSaint that St kilda are the worst team in the League statiscally and historically. You need to take off those Rose-Coloured-Glasses, open your eyes and smell the coffee.

How can you honestly sit there and type the dribble above. Six wins and 3 losses. How about you put your money where your keyboard is!! I reckon we will win 2 of our last 9 games....3 maximum.

Ah yes I can see how my optomism directly influences St Kilda's performances

I'm not a betting man (except among friends) but my prediction of 6 wins (5 against teams below us on the ladder) is no more ridiculous than your prediction of just 2. I guess we'll have to bump this after round 22, and if we end up with only 2-3 wins I'll happily admit I was overconfident.

 

[NeXus_Helen]

Ah yes I can see how my optomism directly influences St Kilda's performances

I'm not a betting man (except among friends) but my prediction of 6 wins (5 against teams below us on the ladder) is no more ridiculous than your prediction of just 2. I guess we'll have to bump this after round 22, and if we end up with only 2-3 wins I'll happily admit I was overconfident.

Fair enough but I'll go even further, if we win 6 games I'll striek at the Grand Final.

 

[Sainters66]

Fair enough but I'll go even further, if we win 6 games I'll striek at the Grand Final.

So when are you going to reveal yourself NEXUS HELEN? You important woman you?

 

[alo_saints_fan]

Looking at that draw i think we could probably win every game (exept hawks) if we play to our potential. by that i mean we dont have a shocker against someone like carlton. WE must get a tad of luck to win some of them but i wouldn't be putting a line though any (exept hawks) just yet. all appears not quite lost.

 

[Rough_Edges]

8th, we have a good run home and Kangaroos don't.

Thats wear it lies I think, that said....who knows.

 

[HoldenMCaulfield]

I think that

1. we'll win every remaining game by 10 goals; and

2. Milney loves to snap !

But seriously, anything is possible. If we can string a few wins together and develop and maintain some confidence, we can beat teams like Hawthorn (hey, we won our last game against them !), Collingwood (they have not really set the world on fire, but the game will be at the MCG and someone will have to control that bloody Daisy Thomas) or Adelaide (Robert Harvey beat them basically by himself in the 2005 finals).

BTW : Where is Milney anyway, he hasn't been red carded again, has he ? And where is Persevering Saint (or 'Percy' as affectionately referred to by a certain multi-poster), he hasn't posted for weeks.

 

[dg102]

Dont get to high hopes Tassie, you'll just be disapointed. This is how i think we'll finish.

v North - definate loss - they are a class above us, we dont play well in queensland. If they played us here theyd still win by 6-10 goals.

v Calton - Probably win - we always beat them but u never know this year.

v Hawks - Definate loss - no need for comment.

v WC (Subi) - Probably Loss - WC have won and come close to beating good teams at subi this year despite there form and should be favorites to beat us there.

v Port - definate loss - They always beat us and there in no worse form than we are atm.

v Coll - definate loss - there in that same class as North and Hawks. Unless we all of a sudden start kicking big scores they will kill us.

v Fre (subi) - almost definate loss - this will be 3rd road trip in 4 weeks and they almost beat us here. Maybe win, Probably loss. Realisticly

v Adel - definate loss - we rarly beat them and we probably will be in 10th posi by now and they probably will be playing for top 4

v Ess - Maybe win - we beat em this year, but you never know, if this game was next week, Id say Probably loss.

So we finish with maybe 2-3 wins end up in 10th. Not the end of the world. This years a write off anyway. Whats the point if we make finals. we'll be playing Adelaide or Brisbane or Collingwood in elimination.
I know this might kick up a fuss but id prefer to see them tanking. I hope RL plays all the kids for the rest of the year.

 

[Snagboy]

Sadly you won't make the finals, I feel for Robert Harvey who has busted his guts all these years...

Good Luck anyway

 

[NeXus_Helen]

Dont get to high hopes Tassie, you'll just be disapointed. This is how i think we'll finish.

v North - definate loss - they are a class above us, we dont play well in queensland. If they played us here theyd still win by 6-10 goals.

v Calton - Probably win - we always beat them but u never know this year.

v Hawks - Definate loss - no need for comment.

v WC (Subi) - Probably Loss - WC have won and come close to beating good teams at subi this year despite there form and should be favorites to beat us there.

v Port - definate loss - They always beat us and there in no worse form than we are atm.

v Coll - definate loss - there in that same class as North and Hawks. Unless we all of a sudden start kicking big scores they will kill us.

v Fre (subi) - almost definate loss - this will be 3rd road trip in 4 weeks and they almost beat us here. Maybe win, Probably loss. Realisticly

v Adel - definate loss - we rarly beat them and we probably will be in 10th posi by now and they probably will be playing for top 4

v Ess - Maybe win - we beat em this year, but you never know, if this game was next week, Id say Probably loss.

So we finish with maybe 2-3 wins end up in 10th. Not the end of the world. This years a write off anyway. Whats the point if we make finals. we'll be playing Adelaide or Brisbane or Collingwood in elimination.
I know this might kick up a fuss but id prefer to see them tanking. I hope RL plays all the kids for the rest of the year.

Great post...objective and to the point!!!!!

 

[cartwright]

So when are you going to reveal yourself NEXUS HELEN? You important woman you?

I'd just like to point out, that I am pretty damn sure (99.99999%) that NH is a guy.

and from his previous statement of streaking, well, I've never been so in favour of tanking.

 

[NeXus_Helen]

I'd just like to point out, that I am pretty damn sure (99.99999%) that NH is a guy.

and from his previous statement of streaking, well, I've never been so in favour of tanking.

I'm as girlie as you sainter_girl!!!!

 

[ultimate hater]

Neckyourself_Helen... just incase you're wondering, last year we went 7-1-3 in the last 11 games for the season.. (1 being a draw)...

 

[NeXus_Helen]

Neckyourself_Helen... just incase you're wondering, last year we went 7-1-3 in the last 11 games for the season.. (1 being a draw)...

I'm fully aware of that ultimate idiot. Go back to the tape and watch those games. In most of our wins plus the draw against the Bulldogs, we threw away big leads early, only to fall over the line. This year is the same except we are losing after leading early.

What are you trying to say...out with it!!!!!!!

 

[Speck]

Well this changes a lot. Getting up over North gives us 2 points on them and a chance next week to knock off another contender, Carlton. I think every game but the Hawthorn game is winnable, especially after such a gutsy performance (which should get the teams confidence up).

 

[Kildonan]

Hawthorn are not better than us.

 

[TassieSaint]

Yep certainly a huge boost to our finals hopes. It also means we can afford to lose to Collingwood and still be on track for 7th or 8th. We can't afford to lose to Carlton though, but with 2 weeks to get players back from injury and the confidence from this win we should be able to beat them

 

[paramore]

So where do you guys think we will finish? I think we have a fairly easy run home, here's how I see it.

Round 14 Kangaroos @ Cararra (Interstate) - 60% Loss. Kangaroos confuse me, the only side to beat Bulldogs and Hawthorn yet also one of only two sides to lose to Fremantle. They seem to go better against good sides than bad sides, which is good for us, but we don't travel well especially to Queensland. We desperately need this win but I'm tipping a loss

Round 15 Carlton @ MCG - 70% Win. I'm going to look like a fool if we lose, but I don't rate the Blues at all. They're on the up long term but for this year at least they belong in the bottom 8, don't rate them at all this year. We've had their number for a while so I'll be expecting a win.

Round 16 Hawthorn @ Telstra Dome - 60% Loss. Hawthorn are a class above us, and this year we've struggled to beat teams on the same level never mind above. Will be too good for us.

Round 17 West Coast @ Subiaco (Interstate) - 90% Win. The House of Pain is no more and West Coast are a joke this year. This is the kind of game we could easily drop though, so we have to bring our A game. Should win though.

Round 18 Port Adelaide @ Telstra Dome - 50% Win. Port are our bogey side, but at home we are a good chance. By this time Port will probably be stealth tanking (playing numerous kids) anyway so we are a good chance.

Round 19 Collingwood @ MCG - 90% Win. Am I overrating our chances? Probably. But aside from beating the Cats the Pies have done nothing of note all year and last time we came agonisingly close to victory. Pies supporters will disagree but I think this is a 50/50 game really and my heart says we'll win

Round 20 Fremantle @ Subi (Interstate) - 80% Win. Make no mistake, it was Pav and Pav alone that kept last weekend close. We've beaten them once, without key players such as Hayes, Dal Santo, Gardiner etc., and we can do it again (hopefully) with them. By this stage they could well be tanking anyway.

Round 21 Adelaide @ Telstra Dome - 70% Win. Adelaide's early ladder position is pretty misleading in my opinion. Only beaten one top 8 side and I think they'll finish around 7th. That said they are still a better team than us, so I'll say a loss. Winnable game though

Round 22 Essendon @ Tesltra Dome - 90% Win. Just about everything is in our favour here. It's at home, Essendon are shit, we've already beaten them and they'll probably be tanking whilst we will hopefully be making a last gasp attempt to make the 8. Should win.

That's 6 wins 3 losses which will leave us 12 - 10 at the end of the year. Cats, Dogs, Hawks, Swans and Lions won't be going anywhere, so here are the other contenders for spots 7 and 8:
Carlton: Verrry tough draw. Only play two teams below them on the ladder, Port and Richmond. Can see them only getting 1 or 2 more wins, no finals. 11/12th (depending on Port)
Richmond: Play the bottom 4, but that's about it for definite wins. I'm backing them against Carlton but that won't quite be enough for finals. 10th
Kangaroos: If the can win their next 3 (Us, Port and Collingwood) then they are just about guaranteed finals. Even if they don't they'd need to lose to both us and Collingwood to lose there spot. I'm backing them for 7th
Collingwood: 3 definite wins, 3 definite losses. The other games are the us, North and Adelaide. I'd back them against Adelaide (just) but if they lose to both us and North they won't make the 8. 9th

Conclusion: IMO it will come down to the trio of games: Us vs North, North vs Pies, Us vs Pies. Whoever wins both games will get 7th, 1 game will get 8th and two losses locks in 9th. The latter seems most likely for us but I am hoping/predicting both us and North will beat Collingwood thus giving us 8th spot, a most likely interstate final some pride and a better send off for Harves That's probably a VERY optimistic analysis though, what do other Saints fans reckon?

Thats what I think we won against Kangas, 7wins 1loss.

 

[CHBench]

Who knows, quite a few spots could open up. Collingwood looking increasingly shakey and if Brisbane stumble today... and they did.

Live Ladder:

P Team P W L D PF PA % Pts

1 W Bulldogs 14 12 1 1 1717 1287 133.41 50
2 Geelong 13 12 1 0 1508 1051 143.48 48
3 Hawthorn 14 12 2 0 1568 1213 129.27 48
4 Sydney 13 9 3 1 1306 957 136.47 38
5 Adelaide 13 8 5 0 1276 1097 116.32 32
6 Bris Lions 14 8 6 0 1434 1351 106.14 32
7 Collingwood 13 7 6 0 1467 1245 117.83 28
8 St Kilda 14 7 7 0 1264 1299 97.31 28
9 Carlton 14 7 7 0 1381 1447 95.44 28
10 Nth Melb 14 6 7 1 1310 1394 93.97 26
11 Richmond 14 5 8 1 1404 1538 91.29 22
12 Port Adel 14 4 10 0 1340 1461 91.72 16
13 Essendon 13 4 9 0 1204 1563 77.03 16
14 Fremantle 13 2 11 0 1139 1271 89.61 8
15 West Coast 14 2 12 0 1057 1589 66.52 8
16 Melbourne 14 2 12 0 1107 1719 64.40 8

Looking at our draw if we get our skates on we could really place ourselves nicely. Bottom half of the 8 is by no means set. Next 4 weeks are vital.

Adelaide next 5 games -

Geelong (h)
Collingwood (a)
Port (h)
Sydney (a)
Carlton (h)


Brisbane:

Essendon (a)
West Coast (h)
Richmond (a)
North (gc)


Collingwood:

Sydney (a)
Adelaide (mcg)
North (dome)
Essendon (mcg)
Hawthorn (mcg)


St Kilda:

Carlton
Hawthorn
West Coast (a)
Port


Carlton:

St Kilda
Sydney
Bulldogs
Adelaide


North:

Port (a)
Collingwood
Melbourne
Brisbane (gc)

 

[Big Carl]

Couldn't have panned out better with Lions the losing today.
Would expect Swans to beat the Pies next week and Crows to lose to the Cats which means more than one spot in the eight is open.
Our fate in now in our own hands!!!!

 

[bubblegoose]

Our fate in now in our own hands!!!!

Unfortunate that we're in this position, but really maybe this is what we need. I reason ton prove ourselves, a reason to push ourselves - as if we actually need a reason to play to our potential ... I mean c'mon!

 

[CHBench]

Current Ladder:

Teams W L D %
Geelong 16 1 0 151.7
Western Bulldogs 13 2 1 127.0
Hawthorn 13 4 0 123.1
Sydney 10 6 1 120.0
Collingwood 9 8 0 113.5
Adelaide 9 8 0 106.2
Brisbane 9 8 0 105.3
St Kilda 9 8 0 100.6
__________________________
Richmond 8 8 1 97.3
North Melbourne 8 7 1 95.9



Some huge games next week.

Hawthorn v Collingwood
Kangaroos v Brisbane @ Cararra

Finally some excitement in this season.