Which side fails to play in September?

[PowerfulPies2023]

Lions should beat Freo I think.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Lions should beat Freo I think.

Squiggle currently has it 49%-51% in Brisbane's favour

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Squiggle currently has it 49%-51% in Brisbane's favour

I'm not a fan of squiggle.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I'm not a fan of squiggle.

Me too. We've won 10 of our last 11 and are still 8th on the 'power rankings'
Apparently, consistently beating contenders by small margins isn't as impressive as flat tracking your way to 9th.

 

[Hobbes]

You play North, Port and West Coast twice.

Also convenient how you don't add North and West Coast as "signs of an easy draw", I mean they are only in last and second last. But that wouldn't fit the narrative you are spinning now would it?

The only time you play another top 4 team away was Collingwood and you also get a home game.

Your only match against Brisbane was at home.

Your only match against Geelong was at home.

By the end of the season you'll have played only 2 double up matches against other finals teams (Same as Geelong).

So if Geelong has an "Easy" draw what have you got?

Adelaide doubled up against Collingwood, Hawthorn and Gold Coast.

Geelong doubled up against Brisbane and GWS.

Only five teams had a draw as easy as to only double-up against top-9 teams twice - Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton, North, Richmond. Essentially, Geelong got the easy draw that would be intended for a bottom-six team.

Three teams had four double-ups against top 9 teams - Collingwood, Port, St Kilda.

One team drew the real short straw - Brisbane’s double-ups are against Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and their only easy draw, Sydney.

 

[catstorm]

Me too. We've won 10 of our last 11 and are still 8th on the 'power rankings'
Apparently, consistently beating contenders by small margins isn't as impressive as flat tracking your way to 9th.

Yeah exactly it's why the Squiggle thinks Collingwood was the 4th best team in 2023 and basically the worst premier ever, It just doesn't rate close wins unless they are a huge upset.

 

[catstorm]

Adelaide doubled up against Collingwood, Hawthorn and Gold Coast.

Geelong doubled up against Brisbane and GWS.

Only five teams had a draw as easy as to only double-up against top-9 teams twice - Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton, North, Richmond. Essentially, Geelong got the easy draw that would be intended for a bottom-six team.

Three teams had four double-ups against top 9 teams - Collingwood, Port, St Kilda.

One team drew the real short straw - Brisbane’s double-ups are against Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and their only easy draw, Sydney.

Sorry why do you keep saying top 9? It's an arbitrary number you have selected again because it suits your argument.

It's top 8 that counts because they are the teams that play finals, which actually can't be judged until the season is over.

Nobody says oh its top 9 that counts from last year because Collingwood finished equal on points with Carlton, do they? Should we just make it top 10 because Freo were only 2 points out of finals and were probably better then Carlton?

It's the same reason you excluded West Coast and North from your "Signs of an easy draw" list. It simply doesn't suit your argument.

 

[Hobbes]

Sorry why do you keep saying top 9? It's an arbitrary number you have selected again because it suits your argument.

It's top 8 that counts because they are the teams that play finals, which actually can't be judged until the season is over.

Nobody says oh its top 9 that counts from last year because Collingwood finished equal on points with Carlton, do they? Should we just make it top 10 because Freo were only 2 points out of finals and were probably better then Carlton?

It's the same reason you excluded West Coast and North from your "Signs of an easy draw" list. It simply doesn't suit your argument.

Because, this year, there is a stark difference between the top 9 and the bottom 9 - it’s been painfully obvious since the halfway point of the season that the other nine teams are not in contention.

Nobody really knows which of those 9 teams will miss the finals.

 

[Cyclonus]

Precisely, until the top 8 is finalised top 9 is a perfectly reasonable metric as all 9 are in contention for a finals spot. We can reassess after the H&A season.

 

[Philth]

Hawks need to win tonight.
If not, then they are probably favourites to miss out.
I reckon they’ll win tonight, and GWS will end up in ninth after Rd 24.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Wow some dude put 50K on the Hawks to miss the 8

Might be pretty smart tbh

pretty risky, only need one upset win and they're in.

 

[Hobbes]

pretty risking, only need one upset win and they're in.

Looks like pretty good odds to me. If you get similar odds for, say, Bulldogs and GWS, you have quite a big guaranteed profit.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

You play North, Port and West Coast twice.

Also convenient how you don't add North and West Coast as "signs of an easy draw", I mean they are only in last and second last. But that wouldn't fit the narrative you are spinning now would it?

The only time you play another top 4 team away was Collingwood and you also get a home game.

Your only match against Brisbane was at home.

Your only match against Geelong was at home.

By the end of the season you'll have played only 2 double up matches against other finals teams (Same as Geelong).

So if Geelong has an "Easy" draw what have you got?

we Played gold coast twice and they might still end up in the top 4.

Adelaide's draw was on the easier side but still close to the middle of the road.

Adelaide play 11 games against the top 9, Geelong play 10.

The gap between 9th and 6-8 is negligible this year,

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Not stirring, legitimately curious. Why are some Crows supporters so fixated on the 5 day break after playing in the heat? We played almost the entire first two months under the heat policy and there would have been at least one 5 day break in there I would have thought. Isn't it pretty common in the early rounds?

Fremantles 5 day break this year was in June, Adelaide's in April.

Yes all games are played in warmer weather in April but there wouldn't be THAT many 33+ degree heat.

 

[Randomizor]

Pies looking shaky at the moment

 

[Pancakes]

The AFL needs to step in and demote the Pies to ninth.
Any final they play will be a boring one-sided mess, with the Pies getting flogged.

The AFL don't want shit finals, so don't let the Pies in who are trash.

 

[fnerd]

Freo
2 years running

 

[fnerd]

pretty risky, only need one upset win and they're in.

Haha

I’m imaging he’s having splendid Thu night atm

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Haha

I’m imaging he’s having splendid Thu night atm

If the giants beat gc next week , hawks could still get 9th

 

[sexyhunk]

If the giants beat gc next week , hawks could still get 9th

percentage will see hawthron finsih above freo

 

[PerthBoy86]

Have a feeling Hawks will beat Brissie, have them finishing in the 8 regardless.

Atm I think Freo or Bulldogs more likely to miss.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawks aren’t missing you’d think.

They’ll get 15 wins and a good percentage. Freo would need to win one of Brisbane or the dogs. Dogs need to win all 3. GWS all 3 too.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Have a feeling Hawks will beat Brissie, have them finishing in the 8 regardless.

Atm I think Freo or Bulldogs more likely to miss.

Realistically only need 1 more. 15 will be enough with our decent percentage.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Realistically only need 1 more. 15 will be enough with our decent percentage.

Yes, nice to get a boost against the Pies of all teams.

Play like you do today I can't see any other 5-8 side matching you in an EF.

 

[cactuscall]

percentage will see hawthron finsih above freo

% wont matter if Freo keep winning. Equal points with Freo 3 more chances to win. Hawks have 2 more.