We discuss goalkicking a lot on BigFooty but can we really identify who is a good or bad kick for goal? Some are easy, I'd bet good money on Jeremy Cameron being a great kick for goal. But is someone like Joe Daniher really as bad as he has been made out?
I recently came across some top notch analysis, which I thought would be worthy of a thread on the main board. The link is below:
Who are the Best (and Worst) kicks in the Comp?
The article itself includes tables featuring every player who has had 10 scoring shots or more. They can be ordered by accuracy, player name, goals and behinds or even team if you just want to focus on your own players. So you can have a bit of fun playing around with the data.
http://figuringfooty.com/2017/07/20/who-are-the-best-and-worst-kicks-in-the-comp/
The article assesses goalkickers in three distinct ways:
1. Simple accuracy (goals / shot attempts).
2. Points scored compared with expected score.
3. Probability of scoring as many goals by luck.
Simple accuracy
On BigFooty we typically focus on (1) because that is the only data we really have access to. But it is the least useful measure to assess good goalkicking from bad simply because it doesn't tell us anything about the difficulty of the goals kicked. It's more difficult to kick a goal from the boundary line than it is from the corridor. Nevertheless, Ben McEvoy (Hawks) leads the league in simple accuracy at 92 per cent.
Points scored compared with expected score
The second measure compares the points scored by a player against their expected score based on the difficulty of their shots. So each shot is assigned a probability of success (based on the league average from that position) and a good goalkicker would be one who has a positive net difference (actual score > expected score). Jeremy Cameron (Giants) leads the league in this category with a net difference of 34 points (Actual score 267 > expected score 233).
Probability of scoring as many goals by luck
The third measure compares a players actual score against the probability of an average player doing just as well from the same opportunities. So if a player had a score of 20 per cent this would mean that there is a 20 per cent chance that this goalkicker is really just an average goalkicker who has become lucky. The better the goalkicker the lower than probability is. Matthew Wright (Blues) leads the league in this category, with a probability of just 0.41 per cent.
Based on all the numbers available it appears as though Wright and Bastinac are the two best kicks for goal in the league. Among power forwards Patton and Cameron standout. Among the more prolific small-or-medium forwards the standouts are Menzel, Fantasia and Betts. Meanwhile if Bugg or Weller has a shot on goal your best bet is to start setting up your defensive structures.
I recently came across some top notch analysis, which I thought would be worthy of a thread on the main board. The link is below:
Who are the Best (and Worst) kicks in the Comp?
The article itself includes tables featuring every player who has had 10 scoring shots or more. They can be ordered by accuracy, player name, goals and behinds or even team if you just want to focus on your own players. So you can have a bit of fun playing around with the data.
http://figuringfooty.com/2017/07/20/who-are-the-best-and-worst-kicks-in-the-comp/
The article assesses goalkickers in three distinct ways:
1. Simple accuracy (goals / shot attempts).
2. Points scored compared with expected score.
3. Probability of scoring as many goals by luck.
Simple accuracy
On BigFooty we typically focus on (1) because that is the only data we really have access to. But it is the least useful measure to assess good goalkicking from bad simply because it doesn't tell us anything about the difficulty of the goals kicked. It's more difficult to kick a goal from the boundary line than it is from the corridor. Nevertheless, Ben McEvoy (Hawks) leads the league in simple accuracy at 92 per cent.
- McEvoy (Hawks) 11.1 92%
- Ah Chee (Suns) 12.2 86%
- Robinson (Lions) 9.2 82%
- Bastinac (Lions) 14.3 82%
- Petracca (Demons) 21.5 81%
- McDonald (Demons) 19.5 79%
- Petrie (Eagles) 11.3 79%
- Puopolo (Hawks) 14.4 78%
- Knight (Crows) 10.3 77%
Points scored compared with expected score
The second measure compares the points scored by a player against their expected score based on the difficulty of their shots. So each shot is assigned a probability of success (based on the league average from that position) and a good goalkicker would be one who has a positive net difference (actual score > expected score). Jeremy Cameron (Giants) leads the league in this category with a net difference of 34 points (Actual score 267 > expected score 233).
- Cameron (Giants) 267 > 233; 34
- Wright (Blues) 145 > 114; 31
- Patton (Giants) 208 > 177; 31
- Menzel (Cats) 208 > 177; 31
- Betts (Crows) 266 > 237; 29
- Fantasia (Bombers) 211 > 183; 28
- Motlop (Cats) 107 > 79; 28
- Bastinac (Lions) 87 > 59; 28
- Walker (Crows) 272 > 246; 26
- Hipwood (Lions) 170 > 144; 26
Probability of scoring as many goals by luck
The third measure compares a players actual score against the probability of an average player doing just as well from the same opportunities. So if a player had a score of 20 per cent this would mean that there is a 20 per cent chance that this goalkicker is really just an average goalkicker who has become lucky. The better the goalkicker the lower than probability is. Matthew Wright (Blues) leads the league in this category, with a probability of just 0.41 per cent.
- Wright (Blues) 0.41%
- Bastinac (Lions) 0.49%
- Robinson (Lions) 0.74%
- Patton (Gaints) 0.74%
- Motlop (Cats) 1.22%
- Petracca (Demons) 1.89%
- McEvoy (Hawks) 2.44%
- Menzel (Cats) 2.55%
- Martin (Suns) 3.42%
- Cotchin (Tigers) 3.73%
Based on all the numbers available it appears as though Wright and Bastinac are the two best kicks for goal in the league. Among power forwards Patton and Cameron standout. Among the more prolific small-or-medium forwards the standouts are Menzel, Fantasia and Betts. Meanwhile if Bugg or Weller has a shot on goal your best bet is to start setting up your defensive structures.
