Why the Crows will win twice as many flags as Port Power long term IMO

[No 1 Draft Pick]

I have been giving this issue some thought. Have a read if you have a few minutes. This is an honest assessment - im not trying to work their supporters up again (in fact Id rather they not respond to the following)

The Crows are one of the "Big 5 or 6" AFL clubs (and arguably the biggest along with Pies). Over time, after stripping out externalities as explained below, SUCCESS has a HIGH DEGREE of CORRELATION with being a big and powerful club. The AFL has a Big 5 or 6 clubs - they are the Crows, Eagles, Pies, Blues, Dons and probably Lions now also. The Crows are undoubtedly a Big 5 or 6 team - Port Power will NEVER be. The 'Big' status is based on macro factors ensuring a clubs long term survival - huge supporter and member base, corporate sponsorship, profitability, asset base, facilities and the like

Since 1990 the Big 6 have won 11 of the 15 premieships. This is a MASSIVELY DISPROPORTIONATE amount of success for the big clubs. You could go back over a longer period and you come back seeing the same things - long term the big clubs keep performing better (Port Magpies in the SANFL, Pies, Blues and Dons in the VFL, overseas soccer leagues etc). The AFL draft and salary cap are a 'socialist mechanism' to ensure the survival of the smaller clubs like Bullies, Port Power, Kangas, Saints etc to make sure they arent completely dominated by the 'big end of town'. HOWEVER the big clubs can still manage to dominate in a number of ways - Better management, better coaching and support staff, better facilites, better medicos as well as a number of other things. For example, if the smaller club gets a short term advantage by say having a gun recruiting manager (eg Stewart) then the Big 6 club just goes and poaches them with their bigger resources.

I am convinced that over the long term the Crows will dominate Poort Power whose short term 'success' of 1 flag from 3 top of the table finishes has been a good result for a smaller club. It needs to be noted though that ONE OFF factors as Powers initial manipulation of the draft (ie getting Tredrea, Dew, Burgoyne and others) not to nominate as well as draft concessions (which the Crows also received when joining the AFL) meant they overachieved in recent years. This was a one off and wont be repeated.

I think a lot of their fans are bitter and come onto our site to troll as they HATE how the Crows still dominate conversation and media even when they have won the flag. But this is the natural state of relative support. Port should be worried that in their flag year they often played to 40% empty stadiums (with crowds less than the AFL average to minor rounds). Additionally their profitability just isn’t what it should be for a premiership year. Both big concerns. When their inevitable downturn comes GOD help them

IMO the natural state of success in SA has been returned (like the old SANFL days) – that is Port (Magpies now Power) will win the flag half as often as the rest of SA (previously the 9 SANFL clubs – now the Crows).

I predict the Crows will win twice as many flags as Port Power in the next 100 years

 

[Markthirtytwo]

I have been giving this issue some thought. Have a read if you have a few minutes. This is an honest assessment - im not trying to work their supporters up again (in fact Id rather they not respond to the following)

You had your fingures crossed when you typed that right?

IMO the natural state of success in SA has been returned (like the old SANFL days) – that is Port (Magpies now Power) will win the flag half as often as the rest of SA (previously the 9 SANFL clubs – now the Crows).

I like that analogy. They can keep their 33 SANFL flags we will take the other 100 or so as the other clubs who have won them are infact holders of the Crows liscence. We'll pretend that the Maggies dont.

 

[Mad Dog]

How does not having as many supporters, and therefore being a smaller club affect, drafting, list management, coaching staff etc. I think you will find the Premierships have gone to clubs who have used the draft well and kept their list strong. There is a thing called the salray cap and the draft which equalises the competition. Without the salary cap the big clubs would dominate as they do in the EPL. Alright Collingwood are the biggest club and how many flags have they won in the last 20 years, same for Richmond, another big club. And Brisbane they weren't a big club to they started winning flags, which has turned them into a bigger club. How are Carlton going at the moment, they won their last flag nearly ten years ago. Seriously this is the biggest load of crap I have ever read from you, but I suppose it is to be expected, cos you have no ********ing idea.

...which is interesting given you have only been here for 5 posts ......

knobby ????....stat-you ??

 

[tribey]

I have been giving this issue some thought. Have a read if you have a few minutes. This is an honest assessment - im not trying to work their supporters up again (in fact Id rather they not respond to the following)

The Crows are one of the "Big 5 or 6" AFL clubs (and arguably the biggest along with Pies). Over time, after stripping out externalities as explained below, SUCCESS has a HIGH DEGREE of CORRELATION with being a big and powerful club. The AFL has a Big 5 or 6 clubs - they are the Crows, Eagles, Pies, Blues, Dons and probably Lions now also. The Crows are undoubtedly a Big 5 or 6 team - Port Power will NEVER be. The 'Big' status is based on macro factors ensuring a clubs long term survival - huge supporter and member base, corporate sponsorship, profitability, asset base, facilities and the like

From 1994 to 1999 North Melbourne made at least the Preliminary Final every single year and won 2 flags. With a bit of luck they could potentially have won six straight. They've no money. No supporter base. And they even had to change their identity and sell their guernsey in one-off matches in a bid to solidify their future. How do you explain them winning twice as many flags as Collingwood since 1990?

The AFL is communist. As far as overall squad strength and depth goes, money means nothing. If free agency came in then this particular part of your argument would stack up.

 

[Mad Dog]

Good post #1.......I think your argument has some merit in a practical sense from the perspective of a greater fan and financial base from which to work. Whether that actually converts into premierships ..... we will see....but given it's December - and there's not much else to talk about........and given the other thread which was locked was a damn fine subject before it was hi-jacked... ......then I'll agree with you all the way !!

 

[slappy]

The Crows are undoubtedly a Big 5 or 6 team - Port Power will NEVER be. The 'Big' status is based on macro factors ensuring a clubs long term survival - huge supporter and member base, corporate sponsorship, profitability, asset base, facilities and the like

population or lack thereof has everything to do with this

 

[Fergus]

We need to get over the Port fixation. If they win 1 flag in the next 50 years and we win twice as many - 2 - would we be satisfied? I'd say not. How about just focusing on why you think we will be a strong club long term.

 

[macca23]

We need to get over the Port fixation. If they win 1 flag in the next 50 years and we win twice as many - 2 - would we be satisfied? I'd say not. How about just focusing on why you think we will be a strong club long term.

I'm with you 100% Fergus on this one as my previous posts would testify.

I don't give a stuff what Port do or don't win. If they're good enough to win a flag then so be it - you don't win them unles you deserve them.

I just want the Crows to become a consistent force in the AFL and win more than their fair share of flags, not just settle for possible mediocrity and be content if that's better than Port.

My ideal dream would be for Adelaide to win the flag every year........ I know, I know ....... "tell him he's dreaming"!!

 

[tribey]

My ideal dream would be for Adelaide to win the flag every year........ I know, I know ....... "tell him he's dreaming"!!

We had a real chance pre-1999 before Bouncediscgate and Blight's gun recruiting put paid to that.

 

[Stinger...]

We need to get over the Port fixation. If they win 1 flag in the next 50 years and we win twice as many - 2 - would we be satisfied? I'd say not. How about just focusing on why you think we will be a strong club long term.

i pretty much agree with Fergie...

we should be worrying about our own backyard, rather than our neighbours!

 

[MrMeaner]

We need to get over the Port fixation. If they win 1 flag in the next 50 years and we win twice as many - 2 - would we be satisfied? I'd say not. How about just focusing on why you think we will be a strong club long term.

I was thinking a similar thing a couple of days ago when reading a post which moaned that the Crows did worse than Port in the pre-season and rookie drafts. As if there is any likelihood of knowing that now.

Both of our clubs need to concentrate on being better than all of the competition not just the mob from the other side of Port Road.

I just can't understand the obsession that besets large groups of both supporters. I mean, I hate the Crows but only just a little more than the rest of the competition. Although I get more satisfaction out of Port beating the Crows, all that pales into insignificance if we win it all. Didn't the 1997 premiership dull the pain of losing to us earlier that year?

 

[tribey]

I was thinking a similar thing a couple of days ago when reading a post which moaned that the Crows did worse than Port in the pre-season and rookie drafts. As if there is any likelihood of knowing that now.

Both of our clubs need to concentrate on being better than all of the competition not just the mob from the other side of Port Road.

I just can't understand the obsession that besets large groups of both supporters. I mean, I hate the Crows but only just a little more than the rest of the competition. Although I get more satisfaction out of Port beating the Crows, all that pales into insignificance if we win it all. Didn't the 1997 premiership dull the pain of losing to us earlier that year?

Very well said.

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

We need to get over the Port fixation. If they win 1 flag in the next 50 years and we win twice as many - 2 - would we be satisfied? I'd say not. How about just focusing on why you think we will be a strong club long term.

Well said, sums it up perfectly.

 

[noddy]

I predict the Crows will win twice as many flags as Port Power in the next 100 years

Mate if only i could be around the place for another 50 years to see your prediction come half way home.

Better make that 25 years the way i've been going lately.

As has already been said as far as premierships being won the AFL has made sure that there will be no dynasties of the past & all clubs should have a window of opportunity to win flags it's just that some clubs don't have much idea how to take advantage of their window when it comes around.

 

[noddy]

My ideal dream would be for Adelaide to win the flag every year........ I know, I know ....... "tell him he's dreaming"!!

I'm with you all the way with this one macca.

"But" wouldn't it make it all the more enjoyable if those from across town could win the wooden spoon at the same time ??

 

[Mad Dog]

I'm with you 100% Fergus on this one as my previous posts would testify.

I don't give a stuff what Port do or don't win. If they're good enough to win a flag then so be it - you don't win them unles you deserve them.

I just want the Crows to become a consistent force in the AFL and win more than their fair share of flags, not just settle for possible mediocrity and be content if that's better than Port.

My ideal dream would be for Adelaide to win the flag every year........ I know, I know ....... "tell him he's dreaming"!!

I have always had this little formula when trying to assess how greedy is reasonable. Pleae take into account this is all "on average".

I would like to think that my club makes the 8 every year. From there it would be nice to make the top 4 every second year - a Grannie every other top 4 finish - and a Flag every second Grannie.
So that boils down to a flag every 8 years (GF every 4). That equates to 12.5 flags per 100 years - which is around what the so called successful clubs are getting (baring in ming there have been less teams in the comp previously).

So far we are 2 out of 14 - which is better than my 1 in 8 scenario. This would suggest that we are still ahead of "successful" pace.

Yes it would be nice to win every year.....but more than our fair share will do just fine .......

 

[noddy]

Didn't the 1997 premiership dull the pain of losing to us earlier that year?

Well i suppose it did.

But at the time of the first showdown i was absolutely devastated when we lost & it took a long time for me to get over it.

As well as the bloody loss costing me plenty in the hip pocket.

 

[Mad Dog]

Didn't the 1997 premiership dull the pain of losing to us earlier that year?

It sure did !.........I'll trade you 2 showdowns for 1 flag anyday !

well said MR M

 

[Mad Dog]

I was thinking a similar thing a couple of days ago when reading a post which moaned that the Crows did worse than Port in the pre-season and rookie drafts. As if there is any likelihood of knowing that now.

Both of our clubs need to concentrate on being better than all of the competition not just the mob from the other side of Port Road.

I just can't understand the obsession that besets large groups of both supporters. I mean, I hate the Crows but only just a little more than the rest of the competition. Although I get more satisfaction out of Port beating the Crows, all that pales into insignificance if we win it all. Didn't the 1997 premiership dull the pain of losing to us earlier that year?

FWIW - I posted this on the 26th Sept @ 1.30pm(ish) on the Pap board in the "congratulations" thread. I genuinely think it's time for everyone to move on.


Just wanted to say congratulations on a great win – enjoy the euphoria of your first flag while it lasts.
Most of you know that although I hate the Power with a passion – but I enjoy a reasonable discussion / argument with most of you…although there are a few that don’t respond very well to reason
One thing I wanted to say was that when the Power came into the competition in ’97 – all I could think about was Showdowns and ladder position of the Crows relative to the Power. A funny thing happened when we won the flag later that year…. I, and others realised that there were bigger fish to fry than just the inane comparisons between Power and the AFC. Although I love to win them – showdowns became less important to the point that I’d gladly sacrifice winning all showdowns just for the chance to play in Grand Finals each year.
We have seen recently the obsession that power players, officials, and supporters have had with the Crows – demonstrated by their insistence of mentioning us even during some of your club’s finest moments. I am genuinely hoping that yesterday’s success does the same thing for you guys as it did for most of us in ’97 – in that it will divert your attention from the constant inferiority complex driven comparisons that most power supporters go on with – and make way for a good healthy rivalry instead of the embarrassing childish crap that we’ve had so far.

Enjoy your win - here’s to getting over 1990 !

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

From 1994 to 1999 North Melbourne made at least the Preliminary Final every single year and won 2 flags. With a bit of luck they could potentially have won six straight. They've no money. No supporter base. And they even had to change their identity and sell their guernsey in one-off matches in a bid to solidify their future. How do you explain them winning twice as many flags as Collingwood since 1990?

The AFL is communist. As far as overall squad strength and depth goes, money means nothing. If free agency came in then this particular part of your argument would stack up.

You have identified the Kangas who are one of the smaller clubs. They had a very good decade no doubt. But they are the exception IMO

Youve ignored a number of other smaller clubs - how many flags did the Bullies, Saints, Dees, Freo win?

My point as a generalisation is that the Big Clubs succeed more - this is clear. I am not doubting there are some exceptions

 

[Portia]

I have some points I'd like you to address.

1) By your inclusion of Brisbane, you concede that success can create `Big' clubs. Why will this not be the case for Port?

2a) You have counted ONE OFF factors for Port as a reason to explain away our success, but have not done so for West Coast, Adelaide or Brisbane, who all enjoy `big club' status. Why is that?

2b) Similarly, you have ignored these ONE OFF factors when explaining why your `big six' have won so many premierships recently. Wouldn't they have won up to 7 less premierships without them?

3) If you have poached Stewart, did we not poach Pittman? Why did a smaller club than Adelaide poach Clarkson, Russell and Hardwick?

 

[Skippy_14]

There are too many PAPs lurking about on OUR board these days.

 

[mymansyd]

There are too many PAPs lurking about on OUR board these days.

I know, kinda' smears it..doesn't it?

Just kidding, there's a handful of decent Port posters. You know who you are.

 

[Damien_R1]

I have some points I'd like you to address.

1) By your inclusion of Brisbane, you concede that success can create `Big' clubs. Why will this not be the case for Port?

2a) You have counted ONE OFF factors for Port as a reason to explain away our success, but have not done so for West Coast, Adelaide or Brisbane, who all enjoy `big club' status. Why is that?

2b) Similarly, you have ignored these ONE OFF factors when explaining why your `big six' have won so many premierships recently. Wouldn't they have won up to 7 less premierships without them?

3) If you have poached Stewart, did we not poach Pittman? Why did a smaller club than Adelaide poach Clarkson, Russell and Hardwick?

Hi Porthos,

Probably agree with all your points except the last one. I wouldn't have thought of it as 'poaching' per se when you take someone on board who nobody else has an interest in. (Pittman). Conversely, I 'would' call it poaching when we took Stewart as the Power would certainly liked to have had him still on board.

Also, I disagree about your point on Clarkson - the only reason Clarkson went to Hawthorn is that he had no other options as a head coach. It's not as if he was a fantastic AFL head coach elsewhere and then was 'poached' by Hawthorn.

You're spot on with a few other points, seems a few points made have contradicted themselves.

Fair point ?

 

[Damien_R1]

I know, kinda' smears it..doesn't it?

Just kidding, there's a handful of decent Port posters. You know who you are.

Exactly. And there are a handful of trolling Port posters who have absolutely no idea. If it all makes for healthy debate, then I'm happy. As for deliberate trolling ....