Why this problem and the analytical answer.

[bulldogtragic]

Ladder After Round 19

Team P W L D For Ag % Pts

Adelaide 19 15 4 0 2000 1346 148.5 60
West Coast 19 15 4 0 1909 1619 117.9 60
Sydney 19 12 7 0 1802 1456 123.7 48
St Kilda 19 12 7 0 1768 1489 118.7 48
Melbourne 19 12 7 0 1826 1629 112.0 48
Fremantle 19 12 7 0 1696 1704 99.5 48
Collingwood 19 11 8 0 1961 1695 115.6 44
W.Bulldogs 19 11 8 0 1967 1808 108.7 44
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Geelong 19 9 10 0 1726 1712 100.8 36
Richmond 19 9 10 0 1580 1864 84.7 36
Port Adelaide 19 7 12 0 1657 1830 90.5 28


Looking at the for and against, we are 33 points of being the highest scoring team this year. Interesting when all the 'experts' earlier in the year asked how we would score, what shocked me however is that our defence (Harris, Hargrave, Morris, Gilbee, Griffen and co) and so bad!

1808 points against is in the bottom rung for the AFL this year. I thought our back-half was quite servicable, we are near Richmong who have had 3 x 100+ point thumpings this year.

Why is this so. Is it because our attacking style creates our scoring opportunities and we're sacrificing our defence, is our defence not up to it? Does it need re-inforcement.

I've been harping on for 2 years about KPP and more-so this year about defence, but now i think we have to address this come pre-season. I'm not the biggest fan of trading after the past few years, but i think we need to find a mature bodied KPP backman.

Someone to help our Harris with big forwards and the flexibility to change them should an opponent be getting the better. Hargrave gets a smaller bodied backman which is what he should be and can better returns (he has been playing well this year) and Morris can keep the big jobs and perhaps a negative back-flanker ( ala Rocket eade last year going after Richie Cole and sayingf we needed a defencive flanker). Birss was meant to take the role but has got injured.

Thoughts.

 

[Top Dog]

Ladder After Round 19

Team P W L D For Ag % Pts

Adelaide 19 15 4 0 2000 1346 148.5 60
West Coast 19 15 4 0 1909 1619 117.9 60
Sydney 19 12 7 0 1802 1456 123.7 48
St Kilda 19 12 7 0 1768 1489 118.7 48
Melbourne 19 12 7 0 1826 1629 112.0 48
Fremantle 19 12 7 0 1696 1704 99.5 48
Collingwood 19 11 8 0 1961 1695 115.6 44
W.Bulldogs 19 11 8 0 1967 1808 108.7 44
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Geelong 19 9 10 0 1726 1712 100.8 36
Richmond 19 9 10 0 1580 1864 84.7 36
Port Adelaide 19 7 12 0 1657 1830 90.5 28


Looking at the for and against, we are 33 points of being the highest scoring team this year. Interesting when all the 'experts' earlier in the year asked how we would score, what shocked me however is that our defence (Harris, Hargrave, Morris, Gilbee, Griffen and co) and so bad!

I wouldn't say that is the case. Midfield pressure, and midfield accountability has a massive influence on how the backline fares week in, week out.

If you play Russian roulette like we do on most weeks, you are going to get burnt on the rebound.

 

[bulldogtragic]

With 1808 for the year, the scores against have been consistent and average near 100 pts a game. Re: your point is our midfield ignoring their defencive roles, or is our game plan to allow scoring as long as we score more.

 

[Batman]

Our problem is not really KPP backmen although another would be nice against dual gorilla forward lines but none of Adelaide, WC or Sydney have those...!

Two of our problems are:

1 - Our inability to lock it in our forward line. A KPP marking forward would help here. When we are forced to bomb it in, it just explodes out even quicker as our pgymies get outmarked.

2 - Also what the bullies don't do well is play tempo footy to slow other teams' run ons and to conserve energy, which can lead to scoring blowouts. We aren't that adaptable in the sense we don't seem to play a chip style very well (remember Melbourne last year) to retain a lead or stop a run on.

 

[bulldogtragic]

We aren't that adaptable in the sense we don't seem to play a chip style very well (remember Melbourne last year) to retain a lead or stop a run on.

Dont mention the war...

 

[Dorval6]

Our problem is not really KPP backmen although another would be nice against dual gorilla forward lines but none of Adelaide, WC or Sydney have those...!

Two of our problems are:

1 - Our inability to lock it in our forward line. A KPP marking forward would help here. When we are forced to bomb it in, it just explodes out even quicker as our pgymies get outmarked.

2 - Also what the bullies don't do well is play tempo footy to slow other teams' run ons and to conserve energy, which can lead to scoring blowouts. We aren't that adaptable in the sense we don't seem to play a chip style very well (remember Melbourne last year) to retain a lead or stop a run on.

Agree with both your points. I've mentioned before we have been inside 50 more than our opposition most weeks but still lose. The ball is rebounded too quickly and often results in a score.

 

[bulldogtragic]

That seems to make sense. Particularly in the Melbourne game it was very prevelant and Richmond in the last quarter.

So what's the answer?

 

[Go_Dogs]

Personally I don't think it matters that much. Our game plan revolves around us scoring more than the opposition. We are a running team. We have a settled backline that does wonders for us.

Midfield accountability could be an issue. I would personally like to see one negative player every week - doing a job on someone. Add to that some bigger bodies and better midfield accountability and it's all good.

Plus, when you have a few losses which you get trounched in - ie. Crows last time - it doesn't help the percentage very much.

The backline is great, don't change it.

 

[Dog Town]

We are actually ranked 9th in defence which is a considerable improvement from years past.We were ranked alot better earlier in the year but have dropped away a little bit.

Stopping the other team from scoring is a team thing and doesn't fall solely on the backline.I dont believe that Adelaides bak 6 is anywhere near the best group in the comp and nor is Rutten the best FB but they push back harder than any side I have seen create a wall that can be very hard to penetrate.At the moment we dont get many numbers behind the ball and Eade said from the start he wanted to teach our guys to play one on one whether it is still that way by design or whether we just cant/wont do it I am not sure.Some of the recent games have featured players running in spacxe with way too much time to deliver the ball.

On top of the fact that we pretty much leave our defenders to fight for themselves I think our bookend in Brian Harris has been a bit dissapointing and has had a similar year to last year.Started very well but has slowly found a way to cough up goals even when it looks like he has an opponents measure.As most have noted he has trouble with leading players but he doesn't always help himself with the way he plays different opponents and some of the free kicks he gives away.I have watched him have an obvious edge on opponents at times and still manage to give up 3 or 4 goals.He is magnificent when the ball is put up in the air but he too often trails in behind when the ball comes in cleanly.I just think he needs to concentrate for longer.He will be a top FB and already is in some ways but we cant have so many goals being kicked against him.

 

[bullish23]

Ladder After Round 19

Team P W L D For Ag % Pts

Adelaide 19 15 4 0 2000 1346 148.5 60
West Coast 19 15 4 0 1909 1619 117.9 60
Sydney 19 12 7 0 1802 1456 123.7 48
St Kilda 19 12 7 0 1768 1489 118.7 48
Melbourne 19 12 7 0 1826 1629 112.0 48
Fremantle 19 12 7 0 1696 1704 99.5 48
Collingwood 19 11 8 0 1961 1695 115.6 44
W.Bulldogs 19 11 8 0 1967 1808 108.7 44
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Geelong 19 9 10 0 1726 1712 100.8 36
Richmond 19 9 10 0 1580 1864 84.7 36
Port Adelaide 19 7 12 0 1657 1830 90.5 28


Looking at the for and against, we are 33 points of being the highest scoring team this year. Interesting when all the 'experts' earlier in the year asked how we would score, what shocked me however is that our defence (Harris, Hargrave, Morris, Gilbee, Griffen and co) and so bad!

1808 points against is in the bottom rung for the AFL this year. I thought our back-half was quite servicable, we are near Richmong who have had 3 x 100+ point thumpings this year.

Why is this so. Is it because our attacking style creates our scoring opportunities and we're sacrificing our defence, is our defence not up to it? Does it need re-inforcement.

I've been harping on for 2 years about KPP and more-so this year about defence, but now i think we have to address this come pre-season. I'm not the biggest fan of trading after the past few years, but i think we need to find a mature bodied KPP backman.

Someone to help our Harris with big forwards and the flexibility to change them should an opponent be getting the better. Hargrave gets a smaller bodied backman which is what he should be and can better returns (he has been playing well this year) and Morris can keep the big jobs and perhaps a negative back-flanker ( ala Rocket eade last year going after Richie Cole and sayingf we needed a defencive flanker). Birss was meant to take the role but has got injured.

Thoughts.

One thing that has to be taken into account is that our home games are at Telstra Dome which generally means higher scoring games. However St Kilda's (who are also tenants at the ground) against record is a fair bit lower then us, so I agree with you that there is a definite problem. I cannot believe how close we are to Richmonds against and they have had at least three 100+ drubbings. Now that is scary

 

[MrChristo]

I wouldn't say that is the case. Midfield pressure, and midfield accountability has a massive influence on how the backline fares week in, week out.

If you play Russian roulette like we do on most weeks, you are going to get burnt on the rebound.

Exactly...there's a few ways to look at defense, other than the final score.

By my count, we allow a shot at goal every 1.98 entries into our defensive 50...that's actually equal 9th with the Kangaroos.
But, we allow 53.1 inside 50's a game, which is 6th worst...

...shows exactly what Top Dog is saying, that our back "6" do a reasonable job each week, but the amount of ball, and the lack of poressure (hence delivery forward) the opp get is very tough to stop.

One thing that has to be taken into account is that our home games are at Telstra Dome which generally means higher scoring games. However St Kilda's (who are also tenants at the ground) against record is a fair bit lower then us, so I agree with you that there is a definite problem.

That's actually not true at all.
We havben't allowed 100 points all year at the Dome...for actually, the very same reason as St. Kilda...
...because it's a small ground it's so much easier to push midfield numbers back to help out the backline. Both the Saints and us (and Geelong actually) play the Dome very well, for mainly that reason.

 

[bullish23]

That's actually not true at all.
We havben't allowed 100 points all year at the Dome...for actually, the very same reason as St. Kilda...
...because it's a small ground it's so much easier to push midfield numbers back to help out the backline. Both the Saints and us (and Geelong actually) play the Dome very well, for mainly that reason.

Interesting. I didn't realise that.

So maybe then we get found out on the bigger grounds as it means we can't push back in defence as much and our defenders become suspect in the one on one contests?

 

[woofers]

We are actually ranked 9th in defence which is a considerable improvement from years past.We were ranked alot better earlier in the year but have dropped away a little bit.

Stopping the other team from scoring is a team thing and doesn't fall solely on the backline.I dont believe that Adelaides bak 6 is anywhere near the best group in the comp and nor is Rutten the best FB but they push back harder than any side I have seen create a wall that can be very hard to penetrate.At the moment we dont get many numbers behind the ball and Eade said from the start he wanted to teach our guys to play one on one whether it is still that way by design or whether we just cant/wont do it I am not sure.Some of the recent games have featured players running in spacxe with way too much time to deliver the ball.

On top of the fact that we pretty much leave our defenders to fight for themselves I think our bookend in Brian Harris has been a bit dissapointing and has had a similar year to last year.Started very well but has slowly found a way to cough up goals even when it looks like he has an opponents measure.As most have noted he has trouble with leading players but he doesn't always help himself with the way he plays different opponents and some of the free kicks he gives away.I have watched him have an obvious edge on opponents at times and still manage to give up 3 or 4 goals.He is magnificent when the ball is put up in the air but he too often trails in behind when the ball comes in cleanly.I just think he needs to concentrate for longer.He will be a top FB and already is in some ways but we cant have so many goals being kicked against him.

So Harris is not doing his job now.I know of a few teams that would like to have him.Lets trade Harris the dud.He would have the most diffulcut position.

 

[Mr. Walker]

When you lose EVERY centre clearance the opposition is always going to kick big scores.

 

[John Gent]

When you lose EVERY centre clearance the opposition is always going to kick big scores.

Exactly. In fact, our inability to win clearances generally has cost us dearly all year and particularly against Port.

We simply cannot continue to give the opposition first use of the ball and expect to win. I am not sure where the problem is because we appear to do a reasonable job with hit-outs.

The basic set-up at centre bounces, throw-ins and ball-ups must be questioned. I would be interested in any available stats which show the personnel involved in successful clearances.

It's either the set-up or the personnel but in my view it's the most important statistic of all and we are continually beaten at it.

 

[Go_Dogs]

This years been more difficult then last year, as when West had a quiet game Cross or Cooney were able to step up and have a 6+ clearance game. This year they too have been paid much more respect - Cooney has been hampered by and injury apparently also - and they have struggled to make such a large impact as they did last year. (More so Cooney than Cross). We have started to see in recent weeks, FINALLY, some more people thrown into the mix who have done themselves proud - Griffen, McMahon, Gilbee, Boyd, Faulkner and Power. The more players who can come through and win a clearance the better we'll become, and the options seem to be increasing. I'll admit it's still currently an issue, but it's good to see new things being tried that will hopefully benefit us come finals and next season. ps - we really miss Hahn and Giansiracusa.

 

[SquirrelGrip]

Here is the difference per ground:

Overall Percentage 108.79% (1967 FOR, 1808 AGAINST)

Telstra Percentage 129.16% (992 FOR, 768 AGAINST)

Non-Telstra Percentage 93.75% (975 FOR, 1040 AGAINST)
MCG Percentage 82.55% (355 FOR, 430 AGAINST)
Interstate Percentage 101.63% (620 FOR, 610 AGAINST)

Last Saturday night was only the fifth time this year we've had over 100 scored against us (the others being Brisbane at the Gabba - which we won - plus losses against Melbourne at the G, Collingwood at the G, Sydney in Sydney and Adelaide in Adelaide).

 

[Jean Claude Vas Deferens]

So Harris is not doing his job now.I know of a few teams that would like to have him.Lets trade Harris the dud.He would have the most diffulcut position.

There's nothing in Dog Town's post that would suggest he would like to see Harris traded... instead, he makes some very good points. Harris is fantastic when given the opportunity to spoil, but he can be beaten on the lead quite often and even Rocket has spoken of his tendency to lose concentration at times. But he will continue to develop and I'm sure I'm speaking for us all when I say what a valuable and improving player he is.

 

[John Gent]

Just checked the stats and in Team/Opposition Differentials in Clearances we are ranked last!

 

[Dog Town]

There's nothing in Dog Town's post that would suggest he would like to see Harris traded... instead, he makes some very good points. Harris is fantastic when given the opportunity to spoil, but he can be beaten on the lead quite often and even Rocket has spoken of his tendency to lose concentration at times. But he will continue to develop and I'm sure I'm speaking for us all when I say what a valuable and improving player he is.

Yeah I actually rate Harris quite highly but we cant hide from the fact he has given up more goals this year than most other FBs.It is not all his fault and the fact that statistically he is one of the most prolific spoilers in the game means he is doing alot right but we nee a bit more from him.He is not immune from criticism.

One thing I have noticed with Harris is that some of his best footy has been played during the frenetic final moments of close games where the adrenalin sort of takes over and he just plays on instinct.I think some of his brain explosions happen when he has time to think such as his attempted volley ball tap to Smith on saturday.He did everything right and lead his opponent to the ball but then stuffed it up at the last moment.

 

[Rocco Jones]

One thing I have noticed with Harris is that some of his best footy has been played during the frenetic final moments of close games where the adrenalin sort of takes over and he just plays on instinct.I think some of his brain explosions happen when he has time to think such as his attempted volley ball tap to Smith on saturday.He did everything right and lead his opponent to the ball but then stuffed it up at the last moment.

The week prior he tried to lay a bump when he was in prime position to pick up the ball, missed the bumb completely which allowed the Tigers to gather and goal.

 

[Dogs 13]

One thing I have noticed with Harris is that some of his best footy has been played during the frenetic final moments of close games where the adrenalin sort of takes over and he just plays on instinct.I think some of his brain explosions happen when he has time to think such as his attempted volley ball tap to Smith on saturday.He did everything right and lead his opponent to the ball but then stuffed it up at the last moment.

Astute as ever. Some of those pressure marks he's taken late in games have been match saving.