Player Watch Will Hayes

[Apples]

Just looks like a little boy out there. I've seen 16 year olds play senior footy for Collingwood in Rene Kink and Stevie Clifford and neither looked out of place. Hayes simply couldn't hold his position in any contest. I've seen many tiny men like Ronnie Wearmouth and Tony Shaw and slender kids like Ricky Barham play at the age of 18 and still show some physicality and ability to win their own ball. Hopefully that will come but he looked way off in his two senior games that I saw.

Clifford was a standout Reserves player, but was very ordinary against big-bodied men Domus.

 

[No SPIN]

There’s an element of list balance in it as well. We have TJ, Cochran, Ryan, and Parker all as developing small-medium defenders. Not all of them will make it so you need to have some flexibility for churn. I think Ryan is the most vulnerable on evidence to date.

Ditto West, Buller and Howes. Especially with McCarthy a likely addition.

Why is TJ ahead of Ryan?

 

[No SPIN]

To be fair- he's hardly been a standout in the VFL. He's had some nice moments. When he's going on a few dynamic runs with three or more bounces or kicking bags I'll say he has X factor. I hardly sighted him in the run home over the last few weeks in the VFL comp.

That doesn't mean he won't make it, but I think the expectation is a little high given his output so far.

Not sure many would agree he hasn’t got X factor.
Who are the “standouts” in the VFL (apart from West) who have out shone Hayes?

 

[No SPIN]

I guess the recruiters from all the other clubs and our recruiters must know something you don't, because he was a very late pick, and our third pick after not starting until very late ourselves.

It's probably whether or not he can win the ball and stand up in contests (even though he won't be a contested ball player), and whether he can retain his speed / endurance combo when he puts on weight

Do you think Hayes has enhanced or confirmed his low ranking based on his first year?
That’s the test - not his original draft rating amongst recruiters.

 

[JoinDate]

Another bloke on our list that shouldn't even try because the odds are against him. May as well just pack up his stuff and go home, really.

 

[Gone Critical]

Do you think Hayes has enhanced or confirmed his low ranking based on his first year?
That’s the test - not his original draft rating amongst recruiters.

I would say a definite but small enhancement. If he is going to be a player he should play a good amount of senior footy in 26. 10 games plus, something like that.

 

[sr36]

I would say a definite but small enhancement. If he is going to be a player he should play a good amount of senior footy in 26. 10 games plus, something like that.

It'd be interesting to look at it the other way around - how many games of state league footy have our senior players played.

Frampton a lot, Josh a bit. DC a fair bit. Most of them not much at all.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Hopefully with dean and iirc glover gone… Cochran gets a weekly KPD game instead of playing him everywhere like they did this year

Need to pile on some physical size to play KPD imho. More suited to 3rd tall role. I liked the idea of him on a wing. Hope they persist with it.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Why is TJ ahead of Ryan?

I’ve made my thoughts on Ryan very clear. Very one sided, below average 1v1, offers no run and carry / dash from defence, poor decision maker. He’s got 2026 to prove me wrong but I’m pretty confident he won’t.

 

[sr36]

I’ve made my thoughts on Ryan very clear. Very one sided, below average 1v1, offers no run and carry / dash from defence, poor decision maker. He’s got 2026 to prove me wrong but I’m pretty confident he won’t.

This will end quickly.

 

[No SPIN]

I’ve made my thoughts on Ryan very clear. Very one sided, below average 1v1, offers no run and carry / dash from defence, poor decision maker. He’s got 2026 to prove me wrong but I’m pretty confident he won’t.

You have suggested Ryan is behind TJ.
In which of these attributes does TJ have an advantage over Ryan - speed is not enough.

 

[Mollythedolly]

You have suggested Ryan is behind TJ.
In which of these attributes does TJ have an advantage over Ryan - speed is not enough.

All of them.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Do you think Hayes has enhanced or confirmed his low ranking based on his first year?
That’s the test - not his original draft rating amongst recruiters.

I think Hayes seemed to perform well at VFL level, but not at all at AFL level, where his weaknesses really showed through. Having said that, a skinny kid in his first year would never have been expected to perform, so it's no change in my view

 

[Scodog10]

It'd be interesting to look at it the other way around - how many games of state league footy have our senior players played.

Frampton a lot, Josh a bit. DC a fair bit. Most of them not much at all.

I like it for clubs with tenured coaches, but Fly is still too early in his cycle for that to be a strong indicator, IMO. All three of those you named started their careers under different coaches with different philosophies to development.

There’s two guys I can readily name that the exercise works for in our best 23 Nick and McCreery (Long played plenty of state league footy at Box Hill and then with us). We’re edging closer to it becoming a good indicator though with Parker, Allan, McInnes, HH and West likely getting senior exposure in 2026 whilst still getting state league minutes (pending injuries). On the whole I think we’re 2-3 years from your theory being air tight with very few left from Buckley’s system by that stage.

You did get me thinking though on just how much Fly’s state league tenure has impacted his development philosophy v Buckley as someone that probably spent more time playing at Vic Park than he did watching our VFL team there (I kid obviously).

 

[No SPIN]

All of them.

You’ve been duped by the occasional run and carry that makes TJ look great - but that’s not enough to make him a well rounded player, compared to Ryan.

I fear TJ may ended up like his brother- who Mitchell clearly thought was not up to the mark or worth persisting with despite similar run and carry highlights.

 

[Bianconeri]

Why is TJ ahead of Ryan?

TJ takes the game on whilst Ryan goes sideways.

You’ve been duped by the occasional run and carry that makes TJ look great - but that’s not enough to make him a well rounded player, compared to Ryan.

I fear TJ may ended up like his brother- who Mitchell clearly thought was not up to the mark or worth persisting with despite similar run and carry highlights.

I don’t think either have well rounded game tbh.

 

[No SPIN]

TJ takes the game on whilst Ryan goes sideways.


I don’t think either have well rounded game tbh.

Ryan’s game is more well rounded than TJ’s was my point. Ryan I agree is not a finished product.
Taking the game on is not enough as TJ’s brother found out when delisted by the Hawks.

 

[Bianconeri]

Ryan’s game is more well rounded than TJ’s was my point. Ryan I agree is not a finished product.
Taking the game on is not enough as TJ’s brother found out when delisted by the Hawks.

My point was saying Ryan has a more rounded game than TJ is about as useful as saying Macrae is faster than Mitchell.

Even if his game was significantly more well rounded it’s not a big point in his favour as most of our defenders (and players in the side) had clear strengths and weaknesses when developing and made it by relying on their strengths to shine whilst ironing out clear deficiencies.

From what I’ve seen TJ has greater strengths to build his game upon than Ryan. That doesn’t mean I think TJ will make btw as I think both are long shots at this stage.

CJ was traded to Melbourne, he wasn’t delisted. He’s played 76 games at the level and I’m predicting he’ll play around another 50 or more at Melbourne which puts him well above what Ryan is tracking for. In his first three season CJ played 23 games compared to Ryan’s one so not sure using CJ’s perceived “failure” as a point in Ryan’s favour.

 

[SchuPie]

I’m more bullish on Ryan than most but I tend to think he’s being played out of position (and am prob the only one who thinks that)
TJ will be a star if he makes it - I’m just not confident he’ll make it. Seriously needs to somehow develop his awareness and understanding of options.

I just want O’Bree to nail our picks from this point on

 

[Gone Critical]

It'd be interesting to look at it the other way around - how many games of state league footy have our senior players played.

Frampton a lot, Josh a bit. DC a fair bit. Most of them not much at all.

When I looked at it a few years back and went through about 10 years Crisp, Mitchell and Josh D were the three through the whole comp for those years who went on to be very good players but had 20 or less games after 3 seasons. All those 3 played a good bit of footy in the lower grade those 1st 3 seasons. Funny all ended at Collingwood.

That was for non KPP and rucks. KPP didn't differ much though. Frampton an outlier but wouldn't reach the level of very good. DC does.

 

[Gone Critical]

I’m more bullish on Ryan than most but I tend to think he’s being played out of position (and am prob the only one who thinks that)
TJ will be a star if he makes it - I’m just not confident he’ll make it. Seriously needs to somehow develop his awareness and understanding of options.

I just want O’Bree to nail our picks from this point on

I would have Ryan as long odds to make it. Entering 4th season with 1 senior game and 38 VFL games is a bad CV. He has not pushed senior selection much, has had some but not a lot of injury and has not dominated at VFL level.

He seems motivated, trains hard and makes an effort. He doesn't seem to have attitude or motivational issues that hold him back. With that background it would be very hard to see him bridge the gap to the AFL.

 

[No SPIN]

My point was saying Ryan has a more rounded game than TJ is about as useful as saying Macrae is faster than Mitchell.

Even if his game was significantly more well rounded it’s not a big point in his favour as most of our defenders (and players in the side) had clear strengths and weaknesses when developing and made it by relying on their strengths to shine whilst ironing out clear deficiencies.

From what I’ve seen TJ has greater strengths to build his game upon than Ryan. That doesn’t mean I think TJ will make btw as I think both are long shots at this stage.

CJ was traded to Melbourne, he wasn’t delisted. He’s played 76 games at the level and I’m predicting he’ll play around another 50 or more at Melbourne which puts him well above what Ryan is tracking for. In his first three season CJ played 23 games compared to Ryan’s one so not sure using CJ’s perceived “failure” as a point in Ryan’s favour.

CJ was deemed surplus to Mitchell’s requirements- his dash was the talk of town in his early career. But proved insufficient to save him.
TJ has similar limitations, his speed may also not enough. But I’m hopefully he can be better than CJ.

I think Ryan is clearly more rounded presently as a player compared to TJ.
But you’re not convinced, which is fine.

 

[Bianconeri]

CJ was deemed surplus to Mitchell’s requirements- his dash was the talk of town in his early career. But proved insufficient to save him.
TJ has similar limitations, his speed is not enough.
I think Ryan is clearly more rounded as a player compared to TJ.
But you’re not convinced, which is fine.

Save him from what? He wasn’t delisted…

 

[No SPIN]

Save him from what? He wasn’t delisted…

Save him from being traded and therefore not in Mitchell’s long term plans.

 

[rand corp]

I understand why its a common belief, kids picked later often need more time, but i think the stats tell a different story.

Real truth is while more of the early picks play season one the later picks who end up good also play just as early.

Using your thought that 2 games for a player outside the top ten equals a decent season is a low mark

67 players from the 2024 national draft as 18 year olds

19 played 10 or more games
9 played between 5-9 games
7 played 3-4 games

So if you played 2 games 34 of 67 of you peers played more.

Of the 19 who played 10 or more
7 came from picks 1-10
5 came from 11-20
7 games from pick 21 +

AFL doesn't wait, its brutal, if you want to be good be good early. Not many who aren't end good in the long run.

Having said that I have hopes for Will but only 2 games in your 1st season is a bit of a negative to me.

"There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics", Benjamin Disraeli

That's good work, GC, and I applaud you for it. I would only suggest that data should merely point you to look at the phenomena behind it, and -a bit like questions on a referendum- you can phrase them, or line them up to say whatever you want, or give you just about any outcome you desire.

Whilst I am not disputing your numbers;

I am still happy with my original notion as it was intended: that anyone taken late in the draft, who manages to break into a high-ladder-positioned team, (maybe just covering someone getting injured), even for a couple of games (in their first season), has done well. It should put them in good standing for a much bigger second season, numbers be damned.

Doesn't mean he will make it, be exceptional or even be an average player, but he has had a taste of the big show and has a much better understanding of what it takes. The rest is hard work and learning on the job.