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Willo's first and last phanton draft

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bumsonseats

bumsonseats

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Oct 8, 2009
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I cant say that I have the opportunity to watch the kids coming through this years draft, so I am basing my phantom on the descriptions provided by Knightmare (with his permission of course) and what I think each clubs strategy will be at this years draft.

So to start with, I thought I would provide a general overview of the strategy I think each club might take into the draft, from which I will base my phantom draft. I dont know each clubs list intimately, so feel free to reply if you think I have got the priority for your club incorrect.
I have done a ladder predictor to determine the draft order (dangerous I know), but aside from a few 50/50 games it really didnt make that much difference.
I have assumed the top 3 will come from Hawthorn, Geelong or Sydney but that is not to say that one of the next crop of teams cant shake things up in September. And whilst I would naturally love for Hawthorn to raise this cup this year, I am inclined to think that Sydney and Geelong are marginally ahead of Hawthorn. We shall wait and see.
Sorry to upset Bombers fans but I have also excluded Essendon from the 1st and 2nd round of this years draft - preempting outcome of the ASADA investigation.
And finally, my phantom does not (yet) take into account compensation picks from this years FA, or changes in draft order following the trade period.

This is just a first cut......so feel free to reply if I have got something wrong.
Hopefully I havent offended anyone to much.

Adelaide - excluded from 1st and 2nd round
List Strengths: KPF stocks, inside mids (Dangerfield, Crouch and company)
Weaknesses: KPD, outside running mids (leg speed), small forward/mid
Priority 1: outside mid (leg speed) or KPD
Priority 2: KPD or best available mid/small fwd
Priority 3: mid/HBF distributor

Brisbane
List Strengths: good young mids, Ruck stocks, emerging HF types
Weaknesses: KPF, KPF, KPF........and mid/HFF, midfield depth
Priority 1: inside mid or quality KPF
Priority 2: KPF or inside mid
Priority 3: Mid/small def

Carlton
List Strengths: good spread of mids, Ruck stocks, emerging KPF (Casbolt and Rowe)
Weaknesses: midfield depth, KPF/3rd tall fwd
Priority 1: strong bodied inside mid
Priority 2: KPF (take pressure off Waite and Henderson so they can stay back)
Priority 3: mid/HFF

Colligwood
List Strengths: quality mids, small forwards, emerging young rucks,
Weaknesses: KPD,
Priority 1: best available (inside) mid (midfielders draft) or quality KPD
Priority 2: KPD or best available mid
Priority 3: best available mid (development)

Essendon - I have assumed Essendon will get excluded from the 1st and 2nd rounds of draft
List Strengths: Good running mids, KPP stocks
Weaknesses: midfield depth
Priority 1: best available mid
Priority 2: best available mid
Priority 3: KPD/KPF

Freemantle - sorry, I dont know this list well. Seems a nice even list
List Strengths: inside mids, small fwds,
Weaknesses: more outside runners, emerging KPF and KPD to replace Pav and McPharlin.
Priority 1: best available mid (outside) - use expanses of Subi
Priority 2: KPF (development) or 3rd tall forward
Priority 3: mid/HBF

Geelong
List Strengths: good quality young mids, Ruck stocks
Weaknesses: Mid/HBF type, KPF (development), KPD (development)
Priority 1: Mid/HBF
Priority 2: best available KPD or KPF
Priority 3: mid/HBF

Gold Coast
List Strengths: quality young emerging mids
Weaknesses: strong bodied ruckman (FA or trade), KPF, 3rd tall fwd.....
Priority 1: mid/flanker type or KPF
Priority 2: KPF or 3rd tall fwd
Priority 3: 3rd tall fwd or small fwd/mid

GWS
List Strengths: KPD (Davis and Mohr), midfield depth, outside runners
Weaknesses: Ruck (FA or trade), HBF that can setup the play, inside mid, 3rd tall fwd
Priority 1: HBF that can distribute the ball, or best avail inside mid
Priority 2: 3rd tall forward
Priority 3: mid/small fwd

Hawthorn
List Strengths: KPF stocks, flankers and outside runners
Weaknesses: inside mids, 195cm plus KPD, Ruck, small defender (development)
Priority 1: best avail mid - prefer inside mid
Priority 2: best available mid
Priority 3: mid/def (small)

Melbourne
List Strengths: inside mids (Jones and Viney), Tall forwards (Watts, Clark, Dawes)
Weaknesses: midfield depth, creative outside runners, KPD, HBF (creative).
Priority 1: best available mid - outside runners
Priority 2: best available mid - outside runners
Priority 3: best available mid/HBF

North Melbourne
List Strengths: KPD stocks, young mids, ruck stocks
Weaknesses: midfield depth, mid/HFF
Priority 1: best available mid
Priority 2: best available mid/HFF
Priority 3: mid/small def

Port Adelaide
List Strengths: good young mids, small forward stocks
Weaknesses: midfield depth, Ruck stocks, mid/(creative) HBF, KPPs
Priority 1: best available mid - outside
Priority 2: Mid/creative HBF
Priority 3: KPP

Richmond
List Strengths: emerging mids,
Weaknesses: KPF or 3rd tall forward, more midfield depth, ruck depth
Priority 1: best available mid
Priority 2: Utility/KPF
Priority 3: best available mid/back flank

StKilda
List Strengths: experienced mids (aging), KPF (Reiwoldt, Lee, Maister)
Weaknesses: midfield depth, KPD
Priority 1: best available mid or quality KPD
Priority 2: KPD or best available mid
Priority 3: best available mid or KPD

Sydney
List Strengths: midfield, Rucks, KPF stocks, small forwards
Weaknesses: aging backline
Priority 1: best available mid/HBF or quality KPD
Priority 2: KPD or best available mid
Priority 3: HBF

West Coast
List Strengths: Ruck stocks, KPF, experienced midfielders
Weaknesses: midfield depth, ???
Priority 1: best available mid
Priority 2: best available mid/flanker
Priority 3: best available mid or KPP

Western Bulldogs
List Strengths: good young tough inside kids, Good emerging KPD
Weaknesses: KPF, outside midfield depth,
Priority 1: Quality FPF or best available mid
Priority 2: KPF or best available mid
Priority 3: mid/rebounding defender
 
1st Round - Work in Progress

Pick 1 - GWS
Selection: Matt Scharenberg or Tom Boyd ??
Reason:

GWS already have Cameron and Patton, and there is a strong chance they will also nab Buddy, so do they really need Boyd (the concensus number 1 pick). I could see them trading out Patton to make room for Boyd and Franklin, and I am sure that StKilda and the Bulldogs would be interested, but do they want to give up their top 4 picks for Patton. No doubt GWS would want something significant for Patton - maybe an established mature player and a 2nd round pick.
Scharenberg provides a playmaker off HB that GWS probably need to complement their midfield and to provide that launch out of defence.

Pick 2 - Melbourne
Selection: James Aish
Reason: Melbourne have been on the record as saying they need to recruit quality mids......who doesnt. But Melbourne will take the best available mid which appears universally accepted to be Aish.

Pick 3 - StKilda
Selection: Jack Billings
Reason: If StKilda cant take a top 3 KPF, then they are going to be on the lookout for quality mids.

Pick 4 - Western Bulldogs
Selection:
Reason:

Pick 5 - Gold Coast
Selection: Marcus Bontempelli
Reason: GC have an abundance of quality young mids in O'Merea, Swallow, Bennell and Martin, not to mention Ablett so do they really need to go after another high quality mid. Bontempelli's athleticism, pace and marking ability may be well suited to a HFF to give the Suns some more scoring power. With the quality of the emerging Suns midfield, Bontempelli can play off a flank and rotate through the middle as his game and body develops. In 3 or 4 years time can develop into a big bodied midfielder to complement the Suns elite midfield kids.

Pick 6 - West Coast
Selection: Josh Kelly
Reason:

Pick 7 - Brisbane
Selection:
Reason:







Pick 8 - North Melbourne
Selection: Luke McDonald
Reason: There is no way that McDonald will be allowed to slip to a second round father-son. Seems to be a steal even at pick 6 so North should be very happy to get him here.


Selection: Ben Lennon
Reason: Tough choice for Brisbane......Kelly, Crouch or Lennon....??
I consulted on the Brisbane board and the concensus was for an inside mid, but with caveat that their midfield was a bit one paced. Given the Lions already have Rich and Maloney as inside mids, and Crouch is not blessed with footspeed, I have gone with Lennon. I think he offers that bit of extra pace, but his ability to kick the ball 60 meters and hit targets is a dangerous weapon.

Pick 9 - Carlton
Selection: Matt Crouch
Reason: Again, its a choice between Kelly and Crouch. Carlton always seem have plenty of outside runners, so I have gone with Crouch to give Carlton that bit of extra inside grunt. Plus the fact he is pretty much ready to play straight away.


Selection: Josh Kelly
Reason: I think Kelly will slide out a little because of his weight - 182cms and only 73kgs.....has a Xavier Ellis build. West Coast will be stoked if Kelly is available at pick 9 but he would be a great pick up and very well suited to the expanses of Subi. WC can also do with someone that can use the footy. It will almost be a crime for the clubs with earlier picks to allow Kelly to slip to WC at 9. I am just worried about his slight build.

Pick 10 - GWS (activated Compo pick)
Selection: Lewis Taylor
Reason: My gut feel is that GWS will trade this pick out for a player with 80-100 games or so AFL experience. I am not sure GWS have an abundance of small forwards, so I think Taylor may be able to play as a small forward for a couple of years whilst he develops his game.

Pick 11 - Port Adelaide
Selection: Christian Saleem
Reason: Physical presence has Port Adelaide written all over him. Another brick in the wall of the Port Adelaide midfield for the next decade.

Pick 12 - Collingwood
Selection: Nathan Freeman
Reason: Inside clearance player with pace and strong attack on the football. Will complement Collingwood outside mids, but develop for the future when Swan retires. Great pickup if the Pies can land Freeman at 12 or thereabout.

Pick 13 - Richmond
Selection: Dominic Sheed
Reason: Tigers probably lacking that one extra class mid to push them into top 4 territory so really need to take the best available mid. With Saleem and Freeman taken with the 2 previous picks, this leaves Sheed.

Pick 14 - Freemantle
Selection: Cameron McCarthy
Reason: Planning ahead for retirement of Pav. Keeps the WA boy in WA.

Pick 15 - Hawthorn
Selection: Luke Dunstan
Reason: Pure and simple........Hawthorn need to recruit to replace Sewell, Mitchell and Hodge. Strong bodied inside mid that is strong at the clearances. Leadership potential is also a strong point. I wouldnt be surprised to see Dunstan go earlier, maybe to Carlton with pick 9 or Port with pick 11.

Pick 16 - Geelong
Selection: Kade Kolodjashnij
Reason: Surely a ready to go replacement for Corey Enright. Great pickup for the Cats if he is available.

Pick 17 - Sydney
Selection: Trent Dumont
Reason: It is hard to find any weaknesses in the Sydney list. Great mids, great depth in KPF stocks complemented by host of goalkicking mids/small forwards. Need to plan for retirements in their backline and Dumont offers the ability to play off HB as well as develop into a big bodied mid.
 
First Cut.......player descriptions taken from Knightmare and Chris25 with thanks

Pick 18 - Gold Coast (compensation pick)
Selection: Jonathon Marsh
Reason: GC are solid in their midfield and across backline, so need to develop more forward options. They have a couple of KPF options, so Marsh offers them that 3rd tall forward option.

Pick 19 - GWS
Selection: Darcy Hourigan
Reason: I have GWS taking a Utility backman and a small forward/mid with their first 2 picks, so next deficiency to address is the 3rd tall forward. It was a choice between Hourigan or Reynolds, but I have taken Hourigan because he is just that bit bigger, and his overhead marking ability.

Pick 20 - Melbourne
Selection: Billy Hartung
Reason: Looking for the best available mid. Hartung offers endurance, line-breaking foot-speed, run and carry, good user of the football, and willing tackler.

Pick 21 - StKilda
Selection: Darcy Gardiner
Reason: StKilda have to rebuild there KPD stocks, and I wouldnt be surprised to see them trade for a ready made KPD, but even so they will still need to find at least one more KPD. At 84kgs, he wont be ready to play on the big KPF straight up, but should be able to get the job as the 2nd or 3rd tall defender. Would be good if he was a couple of cm's taller.

Pick 22 - Western Bulldogs
Selection: Cameron Conlon
Reason: Got a quality mid in the first round, so time to pick up a KPF. Was really a choice between Conlon and Mitch Harvey, but I took Conlon over Harvey simply because of his athleticism. Harvey has had some concerns about his weight and running ability, whereas Conlon is described by Knightmare as super athletic and agile. Strong marking threat and good set shot for goal.

Pick 23 - Gold Coast
Selection: Jay Kennedy-Harris
Reason: Looking for a genuine small forward to complement mids and forward line. Natural crumber, one touch and good finisher around goal.

Pick 24: North Melbourne
Selection: James Battersby
Reason: Really looking for the best available mid. What stands out for me is he is an elite user of the footy (dual sided), and will give North a touch of class of HB. The fact that he has played senior footy in the SANFL is also a bonus and shows he can already compete with the bigger bodies. I wouldnt be surprised if he goes a little earlier in the draft......maybe top 20.

Pick 25: Brisbane
Selection: Luke Reynolds
Reason: HFF type that can rotate through the midfield or onto a wing. Above average pace to give the Lions a bit more foot-speed, and a precise penetrating kick.

Pick 26: Carlton
Selection: Blake Acres
Reason:

Pick 27: West Coast
Selection: Zac Merrett
Reason: Again, WC have some good solid inside mids that can win the footy, but lack that polish in delivering the ball. I have gone for Merrett because of his "elite" skills but also because he can be a bit of a playmaker which will add some creativity to WC's game. If WC can pick up Kelly and Merrett, then they have 2 highly skilled outside runners from this draft.

Pick 28: Port Adelaide
Selection: Tom Langdon
Reason: I am looking for someone that a bit of ability of the HB line. Again, I am looking for superior footskills of HB as well as the ability to provide some run and carry. Versatility to push up forward or into the midfield adds another dimension to his game.

Pick 29: Collingwood
Selection: Cameron Giles
Reason: Knightmare has rated Giles as the 2nd best defender behind Darcy Gardiner. Collingwood could do with a 195cm+ shut down defender. Already has a bit of size to his frame, so wont have to spend 2 or 3 years developing his body before he is ready to play senior footy.

Pick 30: Richmond
Selection: TBA
Reason:

Pick 31: Freemantle
Selection: Nicolas Robinson
Reason: Running defender with high endurance that will run all day suit the expanses of Subi. Outside running player with a strong 1 on 1 game and an excellent tackler. Perfectly suited to the Ross Lyon gameplan.

Pick 32: Hawthorn
Selection: Jared Jansen
Reason: Goalkicking midfielder that can provide outside linkup run and good tackler.
Hawthorn havent really had to rely on their midfield to kick goals in the last few years, but Jansen can add another dimension to thier attack. Also regarded as a stoppage specialist which will suit Hawthorn with the pending retirements of Mitchell, Sewell and Burgoyne.

Pick 33: Geelong
Selection: Alex Spina
Reason: Composed under pressure and good user of the football. Can play up forward as a small forward rotating through the midfield while he develops his game.

Pick 34: Sydney
Selection: Tom Cutler
Reason: Tall rebounding defender. Building for the future to replace the likes of Bolton
 

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that's cool.....happy to take your feedback.
Still a work in progress.
Whilst Boyd seems the standout I am not sure he is a requirement for GWS, and not sure he will slip down to 3 or 4.
My main concern with Kelly is his weight......6ft and 73kgs.....would blow away in a light breeze.
So still shuffling my first round bit by bit.
 
Probably one thing i'd say is Adelaide aren't weak with KPD stocks with Talia, Rutten and Hartigan.

Small crumbing forwards and outside runners... well that is spot on, we are very weak in that regards.
 
Evasive midfielders with breakaway speed. Some height and versatility too. And good skills.

I've basically described Bontempelli.
 
dont see us taking lennon if we wanted speed we would have taken freeman for his line breaking speed otherwise stuck with crouch, with harvey we would only take a forward that is top quality ie if someone like mccarthy falls or we'd take our chances with the stronger draft for kpps next year
 

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captainrich said:
dont see us taking lennon if we wanted speed we would have taken freeman for his line breaking speed otherwise stuck with crouch, with harvey we would only take a forward that is top quality ie if someone like mccarthy falls or we'd take our chances with the stronger draft for kpps next year
Click to expand...


Yeah.....its a tough one.
I went with Lennon based on the write up that Knightmare provided.....in particular his penetrating kick which I think will be a dangerous weapon.....aka Matt Suckling or Trent McKenzie. Pace is described as above average so he is no plodder.

I am not sold on Harvey as an early 2nd round pick, but Brisbane really in need of a KPF. Unless they can manufacture a trade for a KPF, they may have to roll the dice. The quality of KPF in this draft appears very thin, so clubs may have to take a chance a bit earlier than they otherwise would.
 
Good of you to have a crack. But Geelong picked up our Enright replacement last year in Jackson Thurlow. But hey we can always do with more Enright types.
 
muttonchops said:
Good of you to have a crack. But Geelong picked up our Enright replacement last year in Jackson Thurlow. But hey we can always do with more Enright types.
Click to expand...


Yeah....this phantom stuff is hard work.
Very hard to please everyone but fun none the less.
I will certainly be tweaking my selections once the draft order is finalised and we know what is happening with Essendon.

Wasnt really sure where to fit Kolodnashnij in......was looking at Carlton at 8, Collingwood, and Richmond but they all pretty much have a couple of distributors of their respective HB lines.

I think he would be a good pick up for Geelong if he is still available late in the first round.
Mackie is pushing 30 also which gives Geelong another solid creative HB option for the future.
Geelong are pretty solid across the ground so good succession planning IMO.
They could probably do with another KPF option with Hawkins suffering from injury, and Pods nearing the end but next year might be a better year for KPP.
 
joop said:
I think the fact you haven't seen any of these kids play makes your job a lot harder. Good effort tho
Click to expand...


Thank you
Its easy to criticise those that have a go, so I thought I would have a go myself.
It isnt as easy as I thought it might be. Makes you appreciate the efforts of Knightmare and Chris25 and the others that have a bit more insight than I have.

Its hard when you live over 1000kms from Melbourne in a non-AFL state.
Very much relying on the descriptions from Knightmare and Chris25 and then using some judgement to determine what clubs might be looking for.
 

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texdog said:
Love it: Aish and Conlon!
Click to expand...


I will probably tweak the selection in the next week or so.
I am reluctant to let Boyd slip but just not sure that GWS or even Melbourne really need a power KPF.
But can they afford to let him slip....??
Melbourne have stated that they need mids so I may upgrade Aish to second pick and Boyd to 3.
That still leave Billings for the Dogs which is still a great get, especially if you can get Conlon in the 2nd round.
 
bumsonseats said:
Freemantle - sorry, I dont know this list well. Seems a nice even list
List Strengths: inside mids, small fwds,
Weaknesses: more outside runners, emerging KPF and KPD to replace Pav and McPharlin.
Priority 1: best available mid (outside) - use expanses of Subi
Priority 2: KPF (development) or 3rd tall forward
Priority 3: mid/HBF
Click to expand...

Firstly, it is spelt Fremantle

Strengths - Inside Mid's, Small Forwards
Average - Outside Mid's - Pearce, Hill, Crozier and Simpson (Last year first round draft pick)
Weakness - KPF\KPD

In my opinion
Priority 1: Best Available
Priority 2: KPF \KPD
Priority 3: KPF \KPD
Priority 4: 3rd Defender, if not picked earlier. (Michael Johnson replacement)
Priority 5: Small defender, if not picked earlier.

Having said that, I am very happy with who you have picked up so far, and would be even happier if we get Mitch Thorp in the 3rd or 4th round.


West Coast
List Strengths: Ruck stocks, KPF, experienced midfielders
Weaknesses: midfield depth, ???
Priority 1: best available mid
Priority 2: best available mid/flanker
Priority 3: best available mid or KPP

The eagles have a number of good solid in and under midfielders, but lack 2-3 mid's who have elite skills and elite pace. If I was picking for them, I would make sure I didnt select another clearance king mid.
 
bumsonseats said:
that's cool.....happy to take your feedback.
Still a work in progress.
Whilst Boyd seems the standout I am not sure he is a requirement for GWS, and not sure he will slip down to 3 or 4.
My main concern with Kelly is his weight......6ft and 73kgs.....would blow away in a light breeze.
So still shuffling my first round bit by bit.
Click to expand...

Kelly's dad wasn't much heavier and he played CHF in a WAFL premiership side for East Perth and also won 2 Sandover Medals as a flying left footed wingman.The boy has an excellent pedigree and I'd be happy to have him at Fremantle.
 
With the recent retirements at the Eagles I think that they might place some priority on getting a goal kicking small forward, possibly as a third priority after a couple of mids with pace.
 
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