Wimbledon 2012

[SBI]

Gets underway tonight and couldn't see a thread.

Have Berlocq/Troicki at 3.9 and Russell/Seppi at 2.08.

Nalbandian paying over $2.30 to beat Tipsarevic tonight, too. Worth it? He did well at Queens and had some good results at Boodles last week. Tipsarevic on the back of a couple of first round exits at Wimbledon, too.

 

[Dawggin It]

Tips as far as futures go?

Can't see anyone beating Djokovic, not the way the grass courts are the last few years. His defensive play makes him incredibly hard to beat over 5 sets.

As for the ladies... Serena has a pretty dominant record against the top 4 or 5, but seems to have difficulty keeping her concentration for 2 weeks lately. Sharapova has been the most consistent ver the last 12 months, but would want to avoid Azarenka or Serena as they seem to have the wood over her.

My tip is Azarenka for value @$8.

 

[Terror Time]

Novak to win the whole thing again like the champion he is @ 2.70

Only issue is he drew Federers side and in recent times it seems to be Federer > Novak > Nadal > Federer

Still true champions overcome these things and the Djokovic will monster them

Nadal looks a walk up to the final drawing the easier side

 

[Toriola]

Tanasugarn is like 35 years old, semi-retired, and hasn't won a match since february. Tatishvili @ $2.05. Sloane Stephens @ 1.75 also looks alright. Her opponent hasn't beaten a top 100 player this year.

 

[d0gs]

Nalbandian paying over $2.30 to beat Tipsarevic tonight, too. Worth it? He did well at Queens and had some good results at Boodles last week. Tipsarevic on the back of a couple of first round exits at Wimbledon, too.

I think it's alright odds, don't know a lot in terms of lead up tournaments for both players but you would think that he will get quite close to beating Tipsarevic, but you never know with Nalbandian, he is a nutcase haha

For the tournament I would have to say Djokovic.

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Stepanek/Malisse/Isner @ $2.12

Cetkovska/Oudin/Kerber @ $1.97

Fognini +3.5 @ $1.95

-1.05 units

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Have a few bets going:
- Del Potro to win the mens @ $41: same side of draw as Murray & Nadal. Can beat these 2 at his best with big serve on grass (hoping ) . If he reaches the final, anything can happen.
- Wozniaki to win the womens @ $41: to make the semis she will have to beat Bartoli and Azarenka. If she can get across the line with Bartoli (past finalist), I'm hoping that'll give her the confidence to go on with it.
- Multi Del Potro & Wozniaki @ $1681: just for piece of mind, "just in case".

 

[d0gs]

- Wozniaki to win the womens @ $41: to make the semis she will have to beat Bartoli and Azarenka. If she can get across the line with Bartoli (past finalist), I'm hoping that'll give her the confidence to go on with it.

I'm a fan of that bet, good value.

 

[X_box_X]

Murray is $11-$14 most places for the tournament. You can get him at $17 for Betstar. Pretty good value. He showed how close he is to Novak in the five set epic at the Aussie Open. Given this is like a Home Slam for him, will he finally break through and win a bloody Grand Slam?

I agree, Wozniaki at $41 is very good value. She only needs to make it to the 1/4 and you'll make a profit through hedging. I haven't looked at her draw, but I'd rate her in the best six players in the world. Given there is no dominant woman, there is every chance the former world number one wins this event.

 

[anabac]

2 bets im very keen on tonight -

Errani 2-0 over Vandeweghe. French Open finalist vs unknown American. Vandeweghe is in hot form, winning 9 of her last 10 matches on grass over the last 2 weeks, but i feel that Errani will be rested up and put paid to the American quite easily.

Vinci 2-0 over Barty. No. 23 in the world vs 16 yr old Aussie kid ranked 258. Barty has also been in good form in her Challenger circuit games in the last week, taking out a tournament in Nottingham. That may have been her grand final though, and i cant see her troubling Vinci tonight.

Both bets paying around $2 or multi up for a $4 payday.

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

1 unit - Vinci 2-0 @ $2.00

1 unit - Radwanska/Errani @ $2.38

1 unit - Raonic -5.5 @ $1.80

1 unit - Paire/Zopp/Raonic @ $1.96

to date: -1.25 units

 

[the egg]

Casey Dellacqua +6 @ $1.83

Big line here for Casey. I reckon she can trouble Bartoli with her hard flat hitting and push her for at least 1 set which should see this line covered, or at worst we can have a push. Casey should be fresher too, having not played as much recently whilst still notching up a couple of wins this month on the grass court.

Matt Ebden ML @ $2.50

Benoit Paire is a clay court player, simple as that. Yes he notched up a few wins on grass courts last week but to be honest his opponents weren't much chop and didn't prefer that surface either. I feel Matty will be comfortable in this match up and notch up a win. You could take the +3.5 game handicap but I think if he loses concentration for 1 set this might not come up, so the win here is preferred at much better odds.

Nishikori -4.5 @ $2

Nishikori has defeated Kukushkin on the 2 occasions they have played. Over a 3 set match I believe Kukushkin is very vulnerable to brain fades and can often drop sets 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2. Although their previous meeting went to 3 sets the score was 6-3, 4-6, 6-0 which would have covered the line here. Kukushkin can produce some magic at times but I think Nishikori has the brains to stay composed get a comfortable win.

Tsonga -6.5 @ $1.80

Hewitt in my eyes and I'm sure in many others is finished. He should save himself embarrassment and hang up the boots because Tsonga is going to crush him like a bug here. For years Hewitt has hung around like a bad smell, or a better analogy would be to describe him as the turd that won't snap...as we witnessed earlier this year against Djokovic. Since then he's been injured and not been able to play a lot of tennis so this should be a breeze for Tsonga.

That's my 2 cents for tonight, comments welcome.

 

[X_box_X]

0.1 units on Wozniaki @ $55 BETSTAR
0.3 units on Wozniaki @ $1.46 V Paszek BETSTAR

I'm going to keep outlaying my winnings on Wozniaki, probably until she reaches the quarters or semis. That way I will still make a decent profit if she fails to win the tournament, but makes it through to the final 4/8.

 

[hawkes2012]

Never bet on the tennis is it worth it?

 

[the egg]

Never bet on the tennis is it worth it?

There's definitely money to be made in tennis but with so many different players, motives, surfaces and playing styles it can be hard to judge outcomes. Things such as injuries don't get as well documented as they do in AFL and NRL so if you don't follow tennis that closely you can get stung by unknown factors. For example Hewitt had a foot operation after the Aussie open and has played hardly any tennis since, so I highly doubt he will trouble someone of Tsongas calibre which is why I have taken the -6.5 line.

 

[twarby]

lol at the Caro love

 

[Toriola]

Hercog @ $3.50
Minella @ $2.50

 

[750mlPump]

There's definitely money to be made in tennis but with so many different players, motives, surfaces and playing styles it can be hard to judge outcomes. Things such as injuries don't get as well documented as they do in AFL and NRL so if you don't follow tennis that closely you can get stung by unknown factors. For example Hewitt had a foot operation after the Aussie open and has played hardly any tennis since, so I highly doubt he will trouble someone of Tsongas calibre which is why I have taken the -6.5 line.

You worried about Tsogna's finger injury?

 

[the egg]

You worried about Tsogna's finger injury?

Of course, a lot of players play with injury. The damaged tendon is his finger is meant to be permanent, so he'll be playing through pain. I would think he would try to dispose of Hewitt as quickly as possible to avoid a long dog fight which could hinder his recovery.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

lol at the Caro love

It's strange, not convinced she'll even get past the first round.

 

[The_Doctor]

Nadal getting hammered at the moment

 

[sk1001]

Can anybody explain centrebet's second tennis promo?

Is it:

a) Bet $100 and get $50 bonus bet if your $100 bet gets up

or

b) Get an addition 50% on your winnings.

e.g. $100 @ 1.20 = $120 + ($10 for 50% winnings) = $130?

Centrebet's peice of shit live chat is down

 

[half_back_flank]

Centrebet have their chat up at 4 am?

 

[sk1001]

I tried earlier in the night. Message says they are busy for next 5 days and to email

For what it's worth sportsbet had active live chat at 4am today....

 

[the egg]

Casey Dellacqua +6 @ $1.83 push

Matt Ebden ML @ $2.50 loss

Nishikori -4.5 @ $2 win

Tsonga -6.5 @ $1.80 win

Not too bad, the winners played out how I thought they would but Ebden was disappointing. He fought for 1 set but apart from that he was overwhelmed but the weaponry of Paire.

Tonight I'm leaning

Sweeting +8
Janowicz ML
Mahut -3.5
Malisse ML