Preview Winning the Flag

[Daddoo]

No I don't. I think we will get to the prelim but we will be shown up by Melbourne or Sydney.

I don't suppose you could change your avatar just for this next game? Having a bulldog round here has got to be bad ju-ju. lol

 

[gaskin]

I don't suppose you could change your avatar just for this next game? Having a bulldog round here has got to be bad ju-ju. lol

No.

 

[mattis117]

Pre finals bye since 2016. The question is are winners of qualifying finals disadvantaged by a week off.

2016
Both winners of qualifying finals fail to win prelim.

2017
Both winners of qualifying finals win prelim

2018
Split 1 won (scum) 1 lost (dominant Richmond team ripped apart by mason coz)

2019
Split 1/1. Qualifying final winner pies lost to 6th place gws. Dynasty Richmond qualifying final winner won prelim (no surprise)

2020
Both qualifying final winners lose prelims against travelling (hub) teams who finished lower than them on ladder

2021
Split.
Dominant Melbourne side wins qualifying final n prelim
Port inexplicably don't turn up after their week off getting blown out.

Since the pre finals bye has been introduced qualifying final winners are 5wins 7 losses. When you factor in the fact that they are playing prelims at home often against lower ranked teams that's quite alarming. A lot of those wins are from clearly dominant teams like Melbourne last year, Richmond during dynasty and the powerstance Adelaide
Crows where they were heavily favoured to win, often against an interstate team.

Adds merit that playing right through is not such a bad thing, two weeks off out of three may be worse for teams. Still think we need a bit more data, but promising numbers for Freo.

 

[estibador]

No.

If we lose it's on you.

 

[Silencer83]

If the first 22 players to win a flag for Fremantle will be immortals, what would they be if they win it from 5th?

 

[King Huskii]

If the first 22 players to win a flag for Fremantle will be immortals, what would they be if they win it from 5th?

Lucky buggers

 

[Boppo]

We need a fully firing Tabs to have a chance.

 

[arsesmart]

Who knows. There's a lot of uncertainties and fingers crossed with it, but why the hell not?

Our record stacks up nearly as well as, or as well as anyone's. Especially when you look a bit more closely at the sorts of wins Geelong, Richmond and Collingwood built their runs on. Sure we had some slip-ups, but so has everyone, Melbourne, Sydney prime examples.

If anything it's our home form that has let us down. If we get through that first week, we can swing for the rafters, potentially with an extended run at the MCG.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Here's my opinion. Although I'm no expert

The top 8 are all good to very good teams. On their day each team can be quality.

Freo are good enough to beat all top 8 teams.

IMO Freo are a 50/50 chance against all teams

This means they have a 50 per cent chance each week. 4 times in a row is unlikely but far from impossible. It's basic probability.

Home or away Freo are equally as good. I actually think the lads enjoy playing at the G.

I'm not writing them off

Mathematically, the chances of winning 4 50/50s in a row is 6.25%.
There are also intangible factors such as experience, travel, availability and form which currently all work against us.
So I’d say maybe 3% chance max we can win it this year.

 

[Purpletown]

Does anyone seriously think we can win the flag from 5th.
Unprecedented and all, the word of the pandemic?
Anyone, bueller?
For the record, I don't!
But................................

Unfortunately not. Great season but finishing 5th has made it harder and lack of scoring ability is a major problem. Most of our injuries are to our big forwards just to make things more difficult.

To end up 5th on the ladder has been a huge achievement and hopefully we can win a final or two to give the players a taste of finals action.

I think we are well set up to be a serious contender into the foreseeable future with a very solid list and a good coaching panel.

 

[Bigger]

I'll take that chance!

GET ON.

 

[mightymouse75]

Unfortunately not. Great season but finishing 5th has made it harder and lack of scoring ability is a major problem. Most of our injuries are to our big forwards just to make things more difficult.

To end up 5th on the ladder has been a huge achievement and hopefully we can win a final or two to give the players a taste of finals action.

I think we are well set up to be a serious contender into the foreseeable future with a very solid list and a good coaching panel.

If I remember correctly our mid season surge also involved a lot of injurys to the forward line .
The mid feilders and backline dominated.
Anything is possible..

 

[raffrox]

I take that as a Yes dxlr8

Thing is we have to travel for 3 weeks to win it, we'd have to be Brizzy Lions at their peak

Lions aren't making it past next week.

 

[Eski3]

With the pre-finals bye, the pathway to the grand final is easier than ever from outside the 4. Since its been introduced, Bulldogs and GWS made the GF from outside the 4 and quite a number of teams have made the prelim. With this season being extraordinarily even, and with us having already beaten the top 2 teams away, we shouldn't be ruling anything out. One game at a time baby

 

[King Huskii]

Mathematically, the chances of winning 4 50/50s in a row is 6.25%.
There are also intangible factors such as experience, travel, availability and form which currently all work against us.
So I’d say maybe 3% chance max we can win it this year.

I did my calculations and yea 6.25%

That sounds low. 3 other teams are exactly the same and 4 others are 12.5% which isn't much greater.

Freo have played better over east this season. Particularly at the G against Melbourne.

Those percentages aren't that great from top 4 to 5 - 8.

 

[Big Animal]

would just love to have a crack at Collingwood at the MCG the week after next in front of 100K. Nice big ground, probably in good weather. Drizzie with a running goal from the boundary to fire up the crowd. Would be sweet.

 

[wild side]

Lions aren't making it past next week.

I'm talking the fab 4 Brizzy lions, with voss as captain.

 

[King Tenz]

We ain't winning the flag, near 0 percent chance in my mind.

3 straight away games where we travel from Perth to Melbourne (semi-final against Pies/Cats) back to Perth then to Melbourne/Sydney (Prelim against Dees/Swans) back to Perth and then back to Melbourne again for a Grand Final? All in less than 3 weeks?

Yeah, not happening. Need to be top 4 for a real shot at the flag.

Absolute best case we can achieve is a prelim. But I'm happy just beating the Dogs and then looking forward to next season.

 

[Scatter]

I did my calculations and yea 6.25%

That sounds low. 3 other teams are exactly the same and 4 others are 12.5% which isn't much greater.

Freo have played better over east this season. Particularly at the G against Melbourne.

Those percentages aren't that great from top 4 to 5 - 8.

Something wrong here, doesn’t add up to 100%?

 

[ignoramus]

I did my calculations and yea 6.25%

That sounds low. 3 other teams are exactly the same and 4 others are 12.5% which isn't much greater.

Freo have played better over east this season. Particularly at the G against Melbourne.

Those percentages aren't that great from top 4 to 5 - 8.

Yeah, look, I'm not mathematician or statistics expert, but I'm pretty sure this is not how you do probability, and that's leaving aside the fact that we are not dealing with literally flip-a-coin scenarios.

 

[gungho]

We ain't winning the flag, near 0 percent chance in my mind.

3 straight away games where we travel from Perth to Melbourne (semi-final against Pies/Cats) back to Perth then to Melbourne/Sydney (Prelim against Dees/Swans) back to Perth and then back to Melbourne again for a Grand Final? All in less than 3 weeks?

Yeah, not happening. Need to be top 4 for a real shot at the flag.

Absolute best case we can achieve is a prelim. But I'm happy just beating the Dogs and then looking forward to next season.

Are you the same guy that bet me a bottle of red Clarkson would not go to North Melbourne?

 

[WaywardSonSon]

Are you the same guy that bet me a bottle of red Clarkson would not go to North Melbourne?

Lol, there was another guy who bet Snuff a picket sign-wielding trip to Cockburn HQ, that we would not make the finals =P

 

[raffrox]

I'm talking the fab 4 Brizzy lions, with voss as captain.

Sorry man. I completely misread it.

 

[King Tenz]

Are you the same guy that bet me a bottle of red Clarkson would not go to North Melbourne?

Lmao no. Some other random named King.

 

[Martyn_30_]

With the pre-finals bye, the pathway to the grand final is easier than ever from outside the 4. Since its been introduced, Bulldogs and GWS made the GF from outside the 4 and quite a number of teams have made the prelim. With this season being extraordinarily even, and with us having already beaten the top 2 teams away, we shouldn't be ruling anything out. One game at a time baby

There was no pre finals bye last year, if Freo win they should definitely go into a hub the last two years have accidentally uncovered something very viable for finals.


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