Preview Winning the Flag

[trentjac]

6.25%

It was 1/8 now it’s 1/7 - 14.29%

 

[jusjoshin]

6.25%

 

[BanjoRules]

I think we will win the flag.

No reason other than sheer utter bias towards my team.

 

[Joao]

It was 1/8 now it’s 1/7 - 14.29%

Our chance is tied to the games we play, not the amount of competitors remaining. Our odds change based upon the path to the flag. So in this case, if you thought we were going to play Melbourne in a prelim and had calculated our odds accordingly, now you would have to adjust the odds for playing Sydney instead.

If you assume each game is 50/50 (which it almost certainly isn't) its 0.5^4 = 0.0625 = 6.25% I suspect our chances are closer to Dogs x Pies x Swans x Cats 0.5*0.4*0.3*0.4 = 0.024 = 2.4%

Of course, we get through tonight and our odds go up to 4.8%

 

[trentjac]

Our chance is tied to the games we play, not the amount of competitors remaining. Our odds change based upon the path to the flag. So in this case, if you thought we were going to play Melbourne in a prelim and had calculated our odds accordingly, now you would have to adjust the odds for playing Sydney instead.

If you assume each game is 50/50 (which it almost certainly isn't) its 0.5^4 = 0.0625 = 6.25% I suspect our chances are closer to Dogs x Pies x Swans x Cats 0.5*0.4*0.3*0.4 = 0.024 = 2.4%

Of course, we get through tonight and our odds go up to 4.8%

I prefer a more simplistic view. 7 teams remain and anyone of them can win the premiership

 

[Geoff]

Like the numbers being crunched, numbers tell a lot. What I’m putting my gauge of success on is the standard of the games played, WOW, the level has gone through the roof, Lions / Tigers huge, Swans / Dee’s the same. I truly hope we can put in a Swans effort would give us a game next week but sadly I can’t see us putting four of those on the trot, that would be a step too far I believe. To win a final will be an exceeds expectations for me.


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com

 

[Joao]

I prefer a more simplistic view. 7 teams remain and anyone of them can win the premiership

Fair enough, but unfortunately, numbers tend not care about our preferences.

 

[sumavich]

Are we there yet??

 

[PavLike]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves... We still have to beat Collingwood and Sydney

 

[King Huskii]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves... We still have to beat Collingwood and Sydney

Two very tough games. I'm not expecting it but I feel Serong and Brayshaw are giant killers in the middle.

It would be interesting to look.at their age profile and Brodie starting in the middle and see if there's been a stronger or more successful midfield group than them at their age for Freo. I doubt it.

 

[Sturty2Hurty]

Did JLO roll out a flagmantle flag after the game? Anyone else see that?

 

[Paracleet]

Based on realistic odds for the semi and prelim, but calling the GF a 50/50 I now calculate our chance of winning the flag at 6%

 

[Paracleet]

BTW maths aside I think (no purple glasses promise) I'd madly almost have us third favourite purely because the our best footy is probably close to being the best in the comp (just with a much bigger gap to our worst than Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney).

I.E. the stars align and we play more than our fair share of our best footy = flag.

 

[King Huskii]

Based on realistic odds for the semi and prelim, but calling the GF a 50/50 I now calculate our chance of winning the flag at 6%

Its 12.5%

 

[Paracleet]

Its 12.5%

12.5% if you rate all games at 50/50

 

[Paracleet]

My working:

 

[King Huskii]

12.5% if you rate all games at 50/50

I do

I don't go into the games thinking it's a 40/60 game

 

[Joao]

Pies 40-60
Swans 40-60
GF 45-55

I'll go 7.2%

 

[Purple Jesus]

Our belief will be superior to Collingwood’s now that they’ve lost one. They’ll have that nagging voice. It’s better than Sydney’s, we have more to play for. The boys will do it for Dave. We thrive on being the hunter. That’s what we’ll be for the rest of the year. I give us a 50% chance of taking it out this year.

 

[Joao]

Our belief will be superior to Collingwood’s now that they’ve lost one. They’ll have that nagging voice. It’s better than Sydney’s, we have more to play for. The boys will do it for Dave. We thrive on being the hunter. That’s what we’ll be for the rest of the year. I give us a 50% chance of taking it out this year.

That's some Taylor at the trade table like optimism you have. That would make us, on average, around 4-1 favourites in the last three games.

 

[Purple Jesus]

That's some Taylor at the trade table like optimism you have. That would make us, on average, around 4-1 favourites in the last three games.

 

[Nodgey]

We'll either win it, or we won't. 50%.

 

[BStaff17]

Our belief will be superior to Collingwood’s now that they’ve lost one. They’ll have that nagging voice. It’s better than Sydney’s, we have more to play for. The boys will do it for Dave. We thrive on being the hunter. That’s what we’ll be for the rest of the year. I give us a 50% chance of taking it out this year.

I think we can win this week.

But Sydney on B2B travel will be a bridge too far.

 

[Square Peg]

I reckon I have doubled my estimate of us winning this damn thing after tonight. Admittedly from 2% to 4% but still doubled. Sydney suddenly don't look so shit hot. Get through tomorrow and we're not the stupidest chance ever

 

[King Tenz]

I reckon I have doubled my estimate of us winning this damn thing after tonight. Admittedly from 2% to 4% but still doubled. Sydney suddenly don't look so s**t hot. Get through tomorrow and we're not the stupidest chance ever

Our best is better then every team left. I'm biased of course, but that's legit how I see it.