Polls Thread MkII
- Thread starter pjcrows
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The Prosecutor
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 13, 2011
- 12,190
- 19,253
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- Essendon
Not really surprising given the particular areas.
The only one that really screamed out at me was the preference for the Coalition in economy.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,051
- 18,462
- AFL Club
- Geelong
It really is incredible the amount of media coverage that claims that the next election is a foregone conclusion. Realistically both PM candidates at the moment have significant weaknesses but there's a long, long time till the next election and a lot can happen.
In all honesty I'd say the likelihood of both Abbott and Gillard being leaders at the next election isn't particularly likely. If Abbott even gets behind in the polls he'd have to come under serious pressure considering how many mistakes Gillard's made. And if Gillard drops back to 45 on the 2pp or lower then the questions would come up again.
It's a volatile situation on both sides so claiming that the election's a foregone conclusion is ridiculous.
In all honesty I'd say the likelihood of both Abbott and Gillard being leaders at the next election isn't particularly likely. If Abbott even gets behind in the polls he'd have to come under serious pressure considering how many mistakes Gillard's made. And if Gillard drops back to 45 on the 2pp or lower then the questions would come up again.
It's a volatile situation on both sides so claiming that the election's a foregone conclusion is ridiculous.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,051
- 18,462
- AFL Club
- Geelong
This is interesting and shows that on policies, the ALP is well in front of the coalition. But the changes are very interesting.
Industrial Relations: It's surprising just how far ahead the ALP are considering how much attention has been on FWA. I guess it shows that the public are still very wary of the coalition's history with work choices.
Climate Change: This is an important one as the Carbon tax is where the ALP's been copping it left right and centre. Is the Abbot scare campaign starting to run out of puff?
Unemployment: Nothing much to say there.
Asylum Seekers: Again no surprise that the coalition is well in front. They seem to have their rusted on constituents with this whereas the ALP voters aren't overly fond of the Malaysia solution. Every time this become a big issue it favours the coalition so the ALP might be best off trying to keep it off the front pages.
Education and Healthcare: No real surprises. This has always been the ALP's strength and with the Gonski report as well as the NDIS being considered it's shows the coalition being unwilling to invest in health or education. The ALP would be well advised to find a way to fund both of those fully and take this to the election. The coalition's saving spree doesn't cut it on these 2 areas.
Economy: Again no real surprises. I think it's laughable that the coalition is ahead given their funding question marks and refusal to have their costings audited at the last election. Still people remember the surpluses under Howard/Costello and this is one of the coalitions advantages.
Overall it's a huge improvement for the ALP.
And this makes the Turnbull article on the weekend that much more interesting. The 2 things he really emphasised: the importance of education and spending on it; the concern he has for the ill-informed criticism that science and scientists are getting at present. I hope one of the journalists links these things this week.
Agreed. Plenty of interesting things to watch on both sides.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,051
- 18,462
- AFL Club
- Geelong
As a scientist this is the one thing that makes me simply unable to vote for Abbott. He's shown a number of times that expertise is not valuable to him, such as when he said parts of climate change are "crap" and that the fact no economist agreed with his carbon plan said more about them than about him. To me this is a huge worry.
In contrast Turnbull has always been extremely concerned for science and always speaks with respect for the knowledge gained by those that have spent their lifetime on a particular subject. If he gets in then I'd seriously consider voting for him. Abbott's anti-science stance makes it impossible to me.
- Aug 16, 2006
- 5,094
- 6,695
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Wow. There is a shift in those numbers. If that trend continues and is across the board (if it is reflected in other, more erudite polls), then we can say that the mood of the electorate is turing. 2PP in a Newspoll will be the real test, though. Interesting to see how things stand after Gillards big caucus win and Swan' s decision to play attack dog. Swan mark II is much better than his first incarnation.
Ummmm, no
52 -48 unchanged
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4753/
Always check your sources.
Shows what a dud climate is. Only 61% favour a party, where are the other 39%? I would suggest a lot of sceptics who want no policy.
Ha ha, so you change the polls to suit yourself and come up with different numbers to the pollsters.
What makes it funnier is its a face to face poll so they actually get asked re preference flows. The do not use the newspoll approach.
But if misrepresenting data gets you off go for it.
No, its just that they are altering the actual numbers to come up with their own outcomes.
Its pretty sad really, that desperate for some hope are the left that they are now making it up.
There is utterly no justification for misreprenting data. In most walks of life its a crime. In this case its misleading and discredits the research organisation involved.
You did not even provide a link, why was that? Worried that someone would pull you up.
Don't worry you will get away with it in future, I won't be wasting my time again. Enjoy your fantasy world.
O
Old Spice
Guest
There are too many posts from deadbeats who wrote off Labor I could bring into this, but I'll just say Come in Spinner.
This polling is no surprise to the Conservative pollsters which, as I've said ad nauseum here, was always going to point to a massive evening up of the polls. Why on earth do the Liberals carry on in such shrill fashion that we need an election? They know time is their enemy.
The only policy areas the Tories lead in are the aslylum issue and economy. I expect the spectre of Workchoices and immediate threats to wages and conditions to trump any asylum seeker residue which is by now old news and hardly as potent. The economic threats from refugees are highly abstracted and the bogey campaign hardly new. Workchoices remains however a very direct threat to socially conservative battlers.
On the economy, Workchoices will again work its way through to become a battle between abstract economic questions and direct impacts.
The economic polling is also tied up with the scaremongering over the carbon tax.
I am pretty confident as time rolls on and nothing catastrophic occurs as predicted by the neighsayers, the economic question will even up. Especially when the (positive) Labor election ads show how we rode out the GFC in fine fittle and invested seriously in infrastucture like NBN.
O
Old Spice
Guest
The lady, I fear, doth protest too much.
- Thread starter
- #43
With all due respect, you're being ridiculous.
1. I post polls regularly in this thread. Others do aswell. When we post polls, sometimes we link sometimes we don't. I generally don't, usually because I get mine from sources before they are published on websites. I post all polls, regardless of whether they are good or bad for the government. If you think anything else then youre in fantasy land.
2. Im not misrepresenting polls. Go back through the bloody thread and read the discussion.
tazzietiger
Premiership Player
- Sep 10, 2010
- 4,808
- 508
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pjcrows isn't misrepresenting any data because Roy Morgan Research table show both set of numbers. All you can claim against him is for not posting the set of numbers based on how electors say they will vote. To settle the issue I have posted both set of numbers.
- Thread starter
- #45
Newspoll
Coalition 53 (steady)
Labor 47 (steady)
Primary (thanks tazzietiger)
Coalition 43 (-2)
Labor 31 (-4)
Preferred PM
Gillard 39 (+3)
Abbott 37 (-1)
Post any additional figures when they come in.
Coalition 53 (steady)
Labor 47 (steady)
Primary (thanks tazzietiger)
Coalition 43 (-2)
Labor 31 (-4)
Preferred PM
Gillard 39 (+3)
Abbott 37 (-1)
Post any additional figures when they come in.
tazzietiger
Premiership Player
- Sep 10, 2010
- 4,808
- 508
- AFL Club
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Don't forget the Primary vote Pj
Labor 31 (-4)
Coalition 43 (-2)
Looks like Swan's rich bashing is wasting there opportunity to lift their vote after the circuit breaker of the leadership ballot.
I thought this would be very unlikely?
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/it-aint-easy-being-brown-20120311-1usbv.html#ixzz1ovBhTrvn
Current polls suggest Abbott's Coalition has a chance to control the 2014 Senate, with the support of South Australia's Nick Xenophon and the Democratic Labor Party's John Madigan. It's probable the Greens will retain balance of power, but not certain.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/it-aint-easy-being-brown-20120311-1usbv.html#ixzz1ovBhTrvn
Current polls suggest Abbott's Coalition has a chance to control the 2014 Senate, with the support of South Australia's Nick Xenophon and the Democratic Labor Party's John Madigan. It's probable the Greens will retain balance of power, but not certain.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,051
- 18,462
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Interesting poll. I thought we'd see a huge backlash against Labor based on the ugly spat and then picking the clearly less popular leader as PM. It seems like that materialised in the primary vote but those protests didn't go to the coalition. I think it's fair to say that Labor's biggest asset is Abbott right now and that's shown in Gillard being preferred PM.
As an aside it's also interesting how the polls are tightening. Labor was behind 59-41 at the start of Septemter last year. That's a 12 point swing in 2PP in 6 months with Labor not having a real run of momentum during that time at all.
As an aside it's also interesting how the polls are tightening. Labor was behind 59-41 at the start of Septemter last year. That's a 12 point swing in 2PP in 6 months with Labor not having a real run of momentum during that time at all.
- Thread starter
- #49
Significant number of disaffected and disinterested voters at the moment. It'll be up to who can sway them.
We've certainly already seen peak Abbott.
We've certainly already seen peak Abbott.
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