Key forwards lack of goals in grand finals

[Jammer]

Every year the media will roll out "Buddy needs to Kick x amount or Pav needs to kick 5 for them
to win the flag.... as many know its a myth

Was looking at the stats for the last 10 grand finals. ( I've excluded the 2007 as it was such a route
non contested and mismatch and was over at qrt time so apologies to Cats fans and C.Mooney )

Interesting reading

2013 Gunston 4 Rough 2 Buddy 1 Pav 3
( Looking at past stats 4 goals from Gunston in a low scoring contested gf was a massive effort as good as any in the last 10 GF'S )

2012 Jack, Kennedy, Morton, Malk. 2 Buddy 3 Rough 0
( apart from Buddy I think we got 1 goal from any other key forward on the ground )

2011 Johnson 4 Bartel 3 Hawkins 3 Cloke 3
(Good efforts by Cloke and Hawkins... but still no more than 3...Cats kick 5 unanswered in last
when game cooked too )

2010 Draw Cloke 2 Reiwolt 2 Kosie 1
Replay Dawes 2 Kosie 1 Cloke 0 Reiwolt o

2009 Shniender 1 Kosi 1 Reiwolt 1 Chapman 3 Mooney 2 Hawkins 2

2008 Williams 3 Buddy 2 Rough 2 Mooney 2

2006 Micky 0 3 Goodes 1 Hall 0 Lynch 3

2005 Hall 2 Hunter 2

2004 Wanganeen 4 Tredrea 1 Bradshaw 3 Lynch 0


So what does all this mean apart from me being home sick with too much time.

No key forward has kicked more than 3 goals in the last 10 'contested GF'S.
Teams with two key forwards best combined effort is 4 goals.

Gunston is the interesting one as some hawks fans could argue he was a key forward but i dont agree
with Rough and Buddy in that side.

I'm a big believer that of the flag chances the team with the most players on their list capable of kicking 2 to 3 goals is better served than the team with the best two key forwards.

So Swans, Hawks, Cats , Dockers and Power fans be brutally honest.... a hot hard contested
2014 Grand Final where most likely 13 goals wins it.... with your current team and the way they play and structure who and how many are capable of kicking 2 to 3 goals on your list?

 

[ManWithNoName]

Best defensive sides tend to make Grand Finals. Not rocket surgery.

 

[Essendonia]

Don't most of them show that the losing team's forwards didn't kick a big bag - which basically does justify the concept you're seeking to discredit?

 

[Bunk Moreland]

A lot needs to go right for a big forward to have any day out, lack of pressure up the field allows very good delivery all day long.

Never happens in GFs as the footy is too hot and is being banged in under pressure.

I notice in a lot of GFs a surprise tends to bob up and kick 3 or 4, someone you wouldn't expect who hasn't been planned for.

 

[Cynic]

Grand finals tend to be umpired very conservatively as well making umpires hesitant to pay free kicks in forward 50s which would be a factor.

 

[Lana]

Key forwards provide a lot more influence then the goals they kick, a lot of what they provided isn't recorded on the stats sheet.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Didn't buddy play up the ground though? Was hardly in the forward line

 

[Sttew]

Every year the media will roll out "Buddy needs to Kick x amount or Pav needs to kick 5 for them
to win the flag.... as many know its a myth

Was looking at the stats for the last 10 grand finals. ( I've excluded the 2007 as it was such a route
non contested and mismatch and was over at qrt time so apologies to Cats fans and C.Mooney )

Interesting reading

2013 Gunston 4 Rough 2 Buddy 1 Pav 3
( Looking at past stats 4 goals from Gunston in a low scoring contested gf was a massive effort as good as any in the last 10 GF'S )

2012 Jack, Kennedy, Morton, Malk. 2 Buddy 3 Rough 0
( apart from Buddy I think we got 1 goal from any other key forward on the ground )

2011 Johnson 4 Bartel 3 Hawkins 3 Cloke 3
(Good efforts by Cloke and Hawkins... but still no more than 3...Cats kick 5 unanswered in last
when game cooked too )

2010 Draw Cloke 2 Reiwolt 2 Kosie 1
Replay Dawes 2 Kosie 1 Cloke 0 Reiwolt o

2009 Shniender 1 Kosi 1 Reiwolt 1 Chapman 3 Mooney 2 Hawkins 2

2008 Williams 3 Buddy 2 Rough 2 Mooney 2

2006 Micky 0 3 Goodes 1 Hall 0 Lynch 3

2005 Hall 2 Hunter 2

2004 Wanganeen 4 Tredrea 1 Bradshaw 3 Lynch 0


So what does all this mean apart from me being home sick with too much time.

No key forward has kicked more than 3 goals in the last 10 'contested GF'S.
Teams with two key forwards best combined effort is 4 goals.

Gunston is the interesting one as some hawks fans could argue he was a key forward but i dont agree
with Rough and Buddy in that side.

I'm a big believer that of the flag chances the team with the most players on their list capable of kicking 2 to 3 goals is better served than the team with the best two key forwards.

So Swans, Hawks, Cats , Dockers and Power fans be brutally honest.... a hot hard contested
2014 Grand Final where most likely 13 goals wins it.... with your current team and the way they play and structure who and how many are capable of kicking 2 to 3 goals on your list?

You exclude 2007 because it was a "rout" but include 2009, 2006 & 2005, all three of which were the complete opposite with opportunities for key forwards limited by extreme defensive pressure.

 

[Sttew]

Key forwards provide a lot more influence then the goals they kick, a lot of what they provided isn't recorded on the stats sheet.

Hawkins in 2011 gave off as many goals as he kicked, if not more. He was very influential if I recall!

 

[Purple Suit]

This is where the old saying "goals are worth double in finals" comes into it. It's much harder to score than a normal game so if you want to compare them to a home and away game, you need to double the figures.

 

[Lana]

Hawkins in 2011 gave off as many goals as he kicked, if not more. He was very influential if I recall!

I am talking about things like forcing the opponents to play two defenders on the one keyforward that frees up another player on you team. Crashing packs, a decent key forward changes the types of kicks a team can utalized, it gives the team the confidence to kick long to a contest near even when out numbered and not expect a turnover.

 

[Jammer]

The point being about 90% of those grand Finals were alive going into the last qrt.... I think you could raise
a strong argument that a mobile medium size forward is more valuable than a gun key forward.

I dont disagree regards how dominant Hawkins was in the second half of 2009 gf or Buddy in 20012
But for all their dominance they were still at best jittery at kicking for goal on the big day and only kicked
three each

 

[Jugada]

Lol you can't just dismiss the one match that disproves your theory. Selective stats are less than useless and just using a confirmation bias to pin point facts to support your original hypothesis

 

[Prudster]

I think it really points to teams needing a balanced forward line, rather than one dominant figure. For the most part, the teams with one main option don't really make it to the GF, but a good spread, from both forwards and midfielders, is what happens in the big one.

On a side note, look how long it has been since a KPF won a Norm Smith medal. Apart from Lake, it's been over 20 years since any KPP won one.

 

[Jammer]

Nah... my theory is a contested hard grand final..... thats the only one that was over at 1/4 time in the last 10 years

 

[Gydafud]

Hawkins had a good chance of kicking at least 5 in 2011 but hit the post twice and out on the full. Also gave 1 off to Stevie J.

Kicking a bag is limited at the best of times for key forwards, I guess the added pressure of a GF will make it even less likely.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Hawkins had a good chance of kicking at least 5 in 2011 but hit the post twice and out on the full. Also gave 1 off to Stevie J.

Kicking a bag is limited at the best of times for key forwards, I guess the added pressure of a GF will make it even less likely.

Yes, Hawkins could/should have kicked 5-6 and I would back him in to do so, had he been given the same opportunities with his current confidence in front of goals.

I think taking out the only blowout grand final in the past decade is pretty selective. My guess is that when a key forward has kicked five or more goals in any game in the current era, it's generally been in a blowout.

 

[Sttew]

On a side note, look how long it has been since a KPF won a Norm Smith medal. Apart from Lake, it's been over 20 years since any KPP won one.

How long since KPP won anything (other than Coleman Medal). Midfielders have an unhealthy mortgage on football awards

 

[Black Diamond]

Keep in mind that in the last 10-15 years the best key forwards average 2-3 goals per game for the length of their careers.

Given the increased focus on defence by finals teams I think 2-3 in a grand final is actually pretty good.

 

[tangolikelama]

Thank you for skipping 2007..

 

[Sttew]

Thank you for skipping 2007..

Yeah because, statistically, if 2007 was included the OP's argument would be diluted.

This would be like me saying 2014 is Buddy Franklin's best season ever, excluding 2008, which I don't want to include because he so dominated...

BTW I know where you are coming from...

 

[Augustine]

Best defensive sides tend to make Grand Finals. Not rocket surgery.

You're wrong. Go read the squiggle.

 

[DV2000]

Hawkins in 2011 gave off as many goals as he kicked, if not more. He was very influential if I recall!

*Cough cough* handball to Stevie J


He also had the same number of behinds/out of bounds as goals!

 

[TassieSaint]

Could probably go back even further than 10 years. Often forgotten fact that the GOAT key forward Wayne Carey only kicked 4 goals in his 3 grand finals

I agree with this theory but on the other hand every premier (and probably every grand final side) also needs dominant key position players. Even when they aren't impacting on the scoreboard they are vital for structure.

But as mentioned a combination of the high level of defensive pressure in grand finals, extensive planning against key forwards and umpire reluctance to pay holding/arm chopping frees that would get paid every day of the week in regular season conspires against big bags being kicked. Would love to see someone buck the trend this year though.

 

[ManWithNoName]

You're wrong. Go read the squiggle.

Stuff the squiggle. Best defensive sides tend to wind up in the GF.