Key forwards lack of goals in grand finals

[Underarm]

How often has Buddy kicked a bag against Geelong/Sydney/Fremantle/ or Saints/pies going back? Most KPF dominate on the scoreboard against weaker defences. And if they do dominate against decent opposition, the scoreboard moves closer to resemble 2007.

 

[Belnakor]

Could probably go back even further than 10 years.

10 years is about the cut off. Kernahan kicked 7 in 1993 and Sumich kicked 6 in 1992. Last time a key forward really kicked a bag in GF. Jarman debatable as a KPP.

 

[Belnakor]

How often has Buddy kicked a bag against Geelong/Sydney/Fremantle/ or Saints/pies going back? Most KPF dominate on the scoreboard against weaker defences. And if they do dominate against decent opposition, the scoreboard moves closer to resemble 2007.

Buddy has a bad record against Freo in particular. 2.2 goals across 12 games, with 9 wins (most of which were 10 goals+)

 

[ThisIsJake]

Best defensive sides tend to make Grand Finals. Not rocket surgery.

Rocket surgery? That sounds dangerous.

 

[copyright]

Lol you can't just dismiss the one match that disproves your theory. Selective stats are less than useless and just using a confirmation bias to pin point facts to support your original hypothesis

Statistical outlier...

 

[ManWithNoName]

Rocket surgery? That sounds dangerous.

Almost as dangerous as brain science.

 

[Feerits Elf]

No key forward has kicked more than 3 goals in the last 10 'contested GF'S.

Except Lynch kicked four in 2003.

Teams with two key forwards best combined effort is 4 goals.

Except Lynch and Brown kicked six in 2003.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Lol you can't just dismiss the one match that disproves your theory. Selective stats are less than useless and just using a confirmation bias to pin point facts to support your original hypothesis

i think he's right to exclude. you can if you judge it to be an outlier. which i think the 2007 grand final definitely was. data from that game couldn't be used to make assertions about other grand finals.

typically you need great defenders to get to grand finals. 2007 was the exception when an average team got there because wce were decimated by injuries and the top end of the league simply wasn't that strong.

 

[kickazz]

How do the numbers / distribution compare to H&A and other finals over the journey? Better still, compare only H&A games involving say, top6 sides.

Does it turn out to be much different?

 

[Belnakor]

How do the numbers / distribution compare to H&A and other finals over the journey? Better still, compare only H&A games involving say, top6 sides.

Does it turn out to be much different?

this is getting to the area of so called "clutch" players who play better in finals. Cept they don't exist.

 

[kickazz]

this is getting to the area of so called "clutch" players who play better in finals. Cept they don't exist.

Yeah its funny - the sample is size is just too small. Probably more accurate to say there are great GF performances rather than great GF performers.

 

[Cosmic Energy]

Every year the media will roll out "Buddy needs to Kick x amount or Pav needs to kick 5 for them to win the flag.... as many know its a myth

It might be more reasonable to say teams struggle to win finals without a quality key forward or two, and that they don't necessarily have to kick bags, they just have to do a particular job. To me it's a combo of actually kicking goals, competing & stopping opposition marks inside your attacking 50, and applying pressure if the opposition get possession of it.

When your team gets a bit 'bomby' in a tight game under pressure like Geelong did in the qualifying final v Freo last year, you want your forwards to be maniacs in ensuring that either the team retains possession, or at the very least don't let the opposition get it and run it out. Without Hawkins in that game we weren't able to do that.

If the game is wide open and you're getting heaps of possessions on the outside, the key forwards probably aren't needed quite as much.

 

[mike123]

And i thought it was the small forwards who struggles in grandfinals

 

[Feerits Elf]

And i thought it was the small forwards who struggles in grandfinals

Just Leon

 

[mike123]

Just Leon

Defender Leon did okay

 

[Headless]

Best defensive sides tend to make Grand Finals. Not rocket surgery.

 

[juss]

Key forwards dont win you flags, but they often get you there.

 

[Puddy]

Key forwards dont win you flags, but they often get you there.

This. Carey kicked 4 in 3 grand finals, Tredrea kicked 3 in 2 grand finals. The 2 best CHF in the last 2 decades got the teams to the big one but didnt win them off their own boots.

 

[bombermick]

Hawkins and Buddy could have easily both won Norm Smiths, with Buddy needing to kick straighter. They were both the most influential players on the ground.

 

[TigerTime3]

Umpires let the game go.

This means defenders know they can get away with a lot more.

 

[piesnz]

Hawkins in 2011 gave off as many goals as he kicked, if not more. He was very influential if I recall!

As well he should have when his opponent was a cripple.

 

[Damon_3388]

Where are key forwards at?

 

[nineteen eighty]

Key forwards provide a lot more influence then the goals they kick, a lot of what they provided isn't recorded on the stats sheet.

Correct. In September, structure is key. Contested ball is king. Even if the KF isn't taking marks and kicking goals, as long as they provide a contest and get it down to the runners, then role played.

 

[Final Siren]

Best defensive sides tend to make Grand Finals. Not rocket surgery.

We obviously expect the best sides (overall) to make the Grand Final, so it's no surprise that plenty of excellent defensive sides get there. But I don't think having a strong defence is more likely to get you there compared to just being strong in general.

It's arguable which sides have the best defence, but some contenders since 2000 for "best defence but missed the GF" are Carlton 2001, Port Adelaide 2003, either Sydney or Geelong 2004, Adelaide 2005, Adelaide 2006, Fremantle 2012. Most of those had lowest Points Against in their year.

On the flip side, teams with arguably the best attack that missed the GF: Bulldogs 2009, St Kilda 2005, St Kilda 2004. So that's actually fewer, meaning you can probably mount a better case for for saying "the best offensive sides tend to make the Grand Final."

Overall I think defensive excellence gets overrated for finals. Those games are played under intense defensive pressure, but they are not actually won disproportionately by defensive specialist teams.

 

[clogged]

I think it really points to teams needing a balanced forward line, rather than one dominant figure. For the most part, the teams with one main option don't really make it to the GF, but a good spread, from both forwards and midfielders, is what happens in the big one.

On a side note, look how long it has been since a KPF won a Norm Smith medal. Apart from Lake, it's been over 20 years since any KPP won one.

Gunston came very close last year, was probably the favourite until Freo kept kicking it to Lake in the last.