Preview Round 7, 2016: Richmond v Hawthorn, 6 May 2016, 7.50pm @ MCG

[Main Man]

I have seen this written a number of times on this forum and the comparison simply isn’t true.


Anyone who dismisses our games this year as bad form isn’t being truthful or hasn’t been watching close enough. I would say 4 of our first 6 games would rank in the top 10 games across the AFL for the year thus far. They were high intensity with opposition team's playing well.

Don’t worry about the end margin, the quality of the games against the Bulldogs and Crows was extremely high. The Saints game not as high but by no means awful. We smashed WC and the Geelong game we were relatively poor despite missing a good number of first team regulars.


Let’s compare to 2015 start


Game 1 Vs the Scats – smashed them in a strong performance against a weaker side than this year’s Scat’s team.

Game 2 Vs the Bummers- poor performance (equivalent to our perfomance against Geelong game this year – one strong quarter)

Game 3 Vs the Dogs – smashed them – equivalent to WC performance this year

Game 4 Vs Power – got smashed in the first quarter – nice fight back late but we were always up against it (not quite the same as the GWS game margin wise, but smashed none-the-less to a side who finished outside the 8)

Game 5 Vs Roos – strong performance and 10 goal win as a follow to the Port loss. Few suspensions to boot. (poor Richmond this week). This year, Adelaide gave a greater account of themselves against us and you can’t dismiss their form as it has been strong thus far.

Game 6 Vs GWS – we had an average performance, took the foot off the pedal, twice, and paid for it. No different to the Saints game this year only we found a way to win.

We have been down on goals this year but that is a combination of things and not simply that we are no good. We have had the toughest first 6 weeks with ongoing injuries/unsettled line up.

If we don't smack Richmond this week by at least 8 goals, then I'll start to have some doubt about our season. Not at the moment though.

Disagree completely, some of our games might have been good contests and therefore seen as high quality games by the media but they have only been that because teams are dominating for large periods against us.

You can sugarcoat our wins this year if you want but if you look at it objectively we are not playing well.

Both dogs and WC have beaten no one of note yet so their form is questionable, Dogs looked putrid on Friday night as did WC vs the Swans, bit of flat track bullies about these two teams at the moment.

A win against Richmond and Freo will prove little, we need to build our form the next two weeks then see where we are really at vs the Swans, win that well and play the way we have been the last 3 years and I think we are still very much on track, lose that and play the way we are currently the we are making up the numbers.

Remember Geelong in 2014, won a heap of games by less than 10 points and continually got out of jail late in games, made the top 4 and bundled out in straight sets.

That's the way we are heading at the moment with the way we are playing.

No one is saying we cannot turn it around and I hope our good players do and start to build form as the season continues but right now there are worrying signs for 2016.

 

[LuckyHawk]

Working against us now is that most teams think they can beat us (due to our poor play) and thats significant when they run out
whereas in recent years past I think there was doubt they could match us and doubt is a killer.

 

[madhawksfan]

Bugger about Hodge but he was clearly struggling for the most of last week.

Hopefully Lewis stands up in his absence.

If Langford is fit he must come in to bolster our contested game. Brand comes in for either Frawley or TOB (TOB hasn't been bad but we need to see what Brand can do). Howe is possibly the other out (unlucky).

Hill deserves to be dropped but can't see Clarko making too many changes.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

Disagree completely, some of our games might have been good contests and therefore seen as high quality games by the media but they have only been that because teams are dominating for large periods against us.

You can sugarcoat our wins this year if you want but if you look at it objectively we are not playing well.

Both dogs and WC have beaten no one of note yet so their form is questionable, Dogs looked putrid on Friday night as did WC vs the Swans, bit of flat track bullies about these two teams at the moment.

A win against Richmond and Freo will prove little, we need to build our form the next two weeks then see where we are really at vs the Swans, win that well and play the way we have been the last 3 years and I think we are still very much on track, lose that and play the way we are currently the we are making up the numbers.

Remember Geelong in 2014, won a heap of games by less than 10 points and continually got out of jail late in games, made the top 4 and bundled out in straight sets.

That's the way we are heading at the moment with the way we are playing.

No one is saying we cannot turn it around and I hope our good players do and start to build form as the season continues but right now there are worrying signs for 2016.

We are polar opposite in views. That's okay.
I think you are downplaying our form too much.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Hawthorn is currently:

* Ranked 2nd in tackles per game;
* Ranked 2nd in hit-outs per game;
* Ranked 15th in kicks per game;
* Ranked 14th in marks per game;
* Ranked 12th in least opponent handballs per game;
* Ranked 12th in least opponent points per game;
* Ranked 14th in least opponent tackles per game;
* Ranked 17th in least opponent hitouts per game;
* Ranked 13th in team to opponent kicks per game differential; and
* Ranked 12th in team to opponent disposals per game differential.

So far this season, Hawthorn has had 12.5 less kicks per game than its opponent, 4.5 less handballs per game than its opponent and 4.8 less marks per game than its opponent. During 2015, Hawthorn averaged almost 30 more kicks per game than its opponents, almost five more handballs per game than its opponents, 14 more marks per game than its opponent and 6.5 more goals per game than its opponent.

To me, that indicates that Hawthorn players are struggling to win the pill and to share it around as efficiently as they did in the past few seasons.

Clarkson has publicly admitted that Hawthorn is nowhere the standard set over the past few seasons. It starts in the midfield, where it's been Mitchell and nobody and when the Giants shut down Mitchell last weekend, they dominated the midfield.

 

[Siri]

Listening to Fagan I don't think Schoe or Frawley will get up this week. It would have been nice to see Brand & Frawley in the same team in order to straighten us up down back. This may have also freed up Hodge who won't be out there either. Leaves me to think that our most vital changes this week will be between our ears as opposed to the personnel out on the park. Frawley would be a massive loss. We may not be fielding the most impressive side but fingers crossed!

 

[MrPremiership]

If Brand comes in for Frawley, our 22 will include the following

Howe
Lovell
Brand
Ceglar
O'Brien
Sicily

6 blokes under 50 games. 5 under 10 games.

Very short on experience.

Hartung/Gus/Langers to that mix skews it too.

 

[Pessimistic]

Mate, we were missing Roughead.

Roughead.

That's it.

This is the team now.

Hes probably the most flexible player in the AFL

 

[MrPremiership]

Hes probably the most flexible player in the AFL

massive loss, fantastic player.

however, reckon if he played vs GWS we still would have lost. Midfield beaten at the contest, having Big Rough would have helped, but not that much to save a 13 goal loss

 

[Main Man]

We are polar opposite in views. That's okay.
I think you are downplaying our form too much.

The fact that we have only kicked 100 points once says it all, the fact that we are getting dominated in contested possession and struggling to get the ball in the hands of our good players also says a lot.

We could realistically be 1-5, I wonder how many people would be saying we are going well if we hadn't won these close games.

Luckily we have and we are still in a strong win loss position but we need to improve significantly to be a factor this year.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

The fact that we have only kicked 100 points once says it all, the fact that we are getting dominated in contested possession and struggling to get the ball in the hands of our good players also says a lot.

We could realistically be 1-5, I wonder how many people would be saying we are going well if we hadn't won these close games.

Luckily we have and we are still in a strong win loss position but we need to improve significantly to be a factor this year.

We could realistically be 10 -2. Hypotheticals mean little.
I just don't agree with people downplaying the wins. Time will tell

 

[Hawk_francais]

Assuming no Frawley, which I think is likely as they pulled Brand from the VFL match after Chip went down..

B: Gibson Brand Stratton

HB: Duryea Birchall Burgoyne

C: Smith Lewis Hill

R: Shiels Mitchell McEvoy

HF: Puopolo Sicily Schoenmakers

F: Bruest Gunston Rioli



IC: Ceglar, Langford, Howe, Lovell

In: Schoenmakers, Brand, Langford
Out: O'Brien, Frawley, Hodge

What do you think? It's unlike Clarkson to play so much inexperience but I think we'll see a team like this.

 

[NICE1]

Considering we're crying out for midfielders, what's the harm in trying Litherland in the guts at box hill? Think we're wasting our time playing him half back - we already know what we're going to get.

 

[walhawk]

Reckon this will be the selected team
Out - Hodge, Lovell, Howe
In - Brand, Langford, Wilsmore
Frawley will be a late out and Howe to come back in.

 

[Main Man]

We could realistically be 10 -2. Hypotheticals mean little.
I just don't agree with people downplaying the wins. Time will tell

Yep and I hope we are 10-2 but I'm more worried about seeing us play the way we want to controlling games against good opposition, more importantly I want to see us hitting the score board and prevent teams from doing so.

 

[walhawk]

8 games until our bye - after which Rough and Hodge will be back. 6 of them we should win. Swans and Nth matbe not.
Even in our current average form, we should be 10 - 4 at the bye.
8 games at full strength to build momentum and win enough games to sneak into 4th.
16 - 6 should get top 4.
We can still win it.

 

[onthemoney]

Not gonna jump to any conclusions but there is a Willsmore video on the Hawks website and last week they posted a Lovell video prior to his debut. A sign perhaps? Or maybe nothing at all.

I see in the Box Hill notes that they played him as an inside mid on the weekend. Interesting development and perhaps they give him a few more weeks trying this role before getting him into the ones.

 

[PhatHQ]

Considering we're crying out for midfielders, what's the harm in trying Litherland in the guts at box hill? Think we're wasting our time playing him half back - we already know what we're going to get.

I like the idea mate. If it works out it would be a massive bonus! Tall, fast, long kick... I've called for him to play further up the ground before but as a ruck rover there might be an opening if he is good inside.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

In: Langford and Brand

Out: Hodge and Howe

FF: O'Brien - McEvoy - Puopolo
HF: Breust - Gunston - Rioli
Ce: Hill - Burgoyne - Smith
HB: Birchall - Brand - Stratton
FB: Duryea - Frawley - Gibson

Ru: Ceglar
RR: Shiels
Ro: Mitchell

I/C: Lewis, Langford, Lovell and Sicily

 

[Grumblez]

Everyone is saying we miss roughy and need his big body to help in the Middle aswell, maybe there a alternative to this, it would be risky but might be worth a shot, if we where to put shoey in the guts(provided he plays) one thing we can't reprimand him for is his 2nd and 3rd attempts at the ball , and he is very much a confidence player so I dare say having him getting hands on the ball early will help his confidence drastically. Even if he doesn't win the ball his big body to come in as a block at the centre bounce under the rucks and have McEvoy tap straight down where shoey can block a opponent or 2 whilst our midfield brigade sweep the ball out to our outside runners. Which ofcourse after the bounce drops back forward and the likes of Lewis to start hhf and go on ball after said bounce, which in hindsight could possibly give Lewis some confidence if we can get the ball out quick and Lewis is on the receiving end and can get on the score board early like we know he can.

Apart from that we do need some big bodies out there, specially someone to help chip out , Spang comes to mind as you can't fault his courage and alway makes a contest. I don't think dropping the kids is the answer, we need games into them, Howe, lovell, Sicily and tob should stay, if we only play for the now the rebuild is gonna be a hard fall towards the bottom when we do. Have faith in these kids as we have faith in clarko he said he was here for the next phase and that starts now! So my team would be

B: Gibson spang stratts
HB: doc Brand Birchall
C: smith Burgoyne hill
HF: Sicily ceglar Lewis
FF: rioli Gunston Breust
Fol: McEvoy Mitchell shiels
IC: poppy, Langford, lovell, Howe

 

[hawkheart]

If Brand comes in for Frawley, our 22 will include the following

Howe
Lovell
Brand
Ceglar
O'Brien
Sicily

6 blokes under 50 games. 5 under 10 games.


Very short on experience.

Hartung/Gus/Langers to that mix skews it too.

Always interesting to stack up our bottom six (above) v Tigers' bottom six (dunno). The better bottom six usually means a win.

 

[Hawk_francais]

Reckon this will be the selected team
Out - Hodge, Lovell, Howe
In - Brand, Langford, Wilsmore
Frawley will be a late out and Howe to come back in.

Can you really see them dropping Lovell for Willsmore? Why drop a first game midfielder for a zero game midfielder?

I think we'll see Schoenmakers come back in for the experience we'll lose in Hodge, don't you agree?

As for Litherland, I'm a big fan but I don't think playing him further up the ground is the answer - he hasn't shown any real ability to win the ball. We already have plenty of outside running players, aren't we trying to cultivate tackling and clearance players? Another reason why we wouldn't drop Lovell.

 

[Hawk_francais]

tob should stay

Missed him out in your team brother

Shoenmakers into the middle? On your head be it..

 

[Taskmaster]

This weeks game has been called off due to suspensions and surgeries.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Can you really see them dropping Lovell for Willsmore? Why drop a first game midfielder for a zero game midfielder?

I think we'll see Schoenmakers come back in for the experience we'll lose in Hodge, don't you agree?

As for Litherland, I'm a big fan but I don't think playing him further up the ground is the answer - he hasn't shown any real ability to win the ball. We already have plenty of outside running players, aren't we trying to cultivate tackling and clearance players? Another reason why we wouldn't drop Lovell.

Schoey still not right according to the BUPA report.