Toast QF = Collingwood 60-53 Melbourne

[sr36]

I can understand save game mode, when there's 5 min left and we're 3 goals up.......... but a whole qtr?

I'm not certain that's the instruction, not for that amount of time.

If that is / was the instruction, then that gives me confidence we have forward and reverse gears to go to.

Certainly puts the team defence under immense pressure, just goes to show how good our defence is, regardless if that was the instruction or not.

The instruction will be that stopping goals is more important than scoring goals, so take less risks to open it up for run. We overdid it. I got a bit worried really early when Pendles put WHE into a really attacking space in defence and rather than run and gun, he held it up and then put it to a contest on the boundary line. I knew it was going to be a grim defensive struggle, made more grim as we got absolutely spanked around stoppage in that quarter - partially because we weren't trying to get our running swarm going.

We try to adjust the balance of attack and defence for the scoreboard situation by taking more or less aggressive options. It's why we win so many close games. It's also why we have so many close games, as we come back hard by being more attacking, but also don't run away with games as we go more defensive when we get a gap. Hard balance to always get right. And we were too defensive. But held on so all good.

 

[No SPIN]

Can't wait to see that flog Hoyne bring this up during the week to continue his wank fest all year for Melbourne.

Frankly if they think junk I50’s and no change to structure/gameplan, is the way to go then that’s fine with me.

 

[sideswipe]

Herald Sun has expected score based on where shots are taken from. Not sure if it is a champion data thing, but it had the expected score as 55 - 70 Dees way.

Likewise last night they had Swans winning 72 - 69 last night.

Don't know about you, but l think l prefer the actual scores to the expected scores

Obviously if a score changes then it alters a game, as a goal goes back to the centre or a side changes what they are doing to counter what is going on.

Just texted Greg Norman to congratulate him on his 8 corrected Majors.


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[3rdMan]

It's not about allowing the opposition to get inside 50s. When we're up in the last we'll reduce risk. Less attacking defending, safer ball movement being the main two. We want more stoppages and less pace on the game.

This can result in difficulty getting the ball forward and more opposition inside 50s, but also reduces the chance that we make a mistake and give up quick goals. Our attacking defending is very leaky especially when the opposition are going for broke, it definitely needs to be wound back when ahead late. Our corridor ball movement is also at great risk of leaking goals. You only go for these when you need it, not when a mistake could turn a winning position into a losing one.

The fact is we are 14-0 when leading after 3 quarters this year, so the strategy of dialling back the offence when in a winning position has been working.

 

[thebaldfacts]

Just texted Greg Norman to congratulate him on his 8 corrected Majors.


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And l am getting my tickets for the corrected score Collingwood v Sydney elimination final.

 

[Carringbush2010]

The instruction will be that stopping goals is more important than scoring goals, so take less risks to open it up for run. We overdid it. I got a bit worried really early when Pendles put WHE into a really attacking space in defence and rather than run and gun, he held it up and then put it to a contest on the boundary line. I knew it was going to be a grim defensive struggle, made more grim as we got absolutely spanked around stoppage in that quarter - partially because we weren't trying to get our running swarm going.

We try to adjust the balance of attack and defence for the scoreboard situation by taking more or less aggressive options. Hard balance to always get right. And we were too defensive. But held on so all good

Yep that's how I saw it, I watched the replay last night.

If we couldn't get absolute possession then we'd go down the line hugging the boundary to create a contest / stoppage.

Not to mention for the whole game the dees were never allowed space i50.

So in the last, that's we're their barrage of i50 came from, we got spanked in those contests as you pointed out.

For mine, this is a sort of strategy you reserve for the last few minutes, not a whole qtr. We're the exact example of why teams should not go to save game mode for that period of time.

I'm not certain this is a deliberate ploy, not for that amount of game time in any case.

 

[eyeroller]

The last 2 seasons it has been pointed out how we do not fit some of the statistical profile of top teams / premiership teams and we'd need to fix X, Y, Z. The thing is that, we still manage to win most games so... ?

 

[DinoSoar]

According to SEN Goodwin told players that on a “corrected score” basis they win by 21 points.
Now I know there are services that make that adjustment for both teams on the day, but that suggests if you count our 4 missed shot inside 30, and add 20 points to our score then Melb would have needed to cover our 26 points and add 21 to win by that margin.
That total of 47 points is around 8 goals meaning they would have needed to kick 15 goals 3.
I can’t see it.

Could someone please post a link to a site showing the corrected scores for the game ?

If that’s true then Goodwin is a deadset clown. Corrected score? Seriously?!? What a douche

 

[thebaldfacts]

Sure that it will form part of the defence strategy.

 

[cfc19902010]

have noticed Elliott when he kicks straight early kicks straight for the game and if he doesn’t tends to miss for the rest of the game
Just hope he finds his match winning radar in prelim and hopefully grand final

 

[Carringbush2010]

So some positives for the likes of stormskye and others who misread posts as an attack on our team.

The differences in i50s.

Whenever we entered 50, we had numbers in space and allowed easy conversion (even though we missed a couple).

Whenever the dees entered 50 it was under pressure and congestion. Sure they missed gettable shots but those shots or the bulk of them were under our pressure.

A good example was the last qtr, when we had ball and couldn't find absolute possession, we'd play down the line skinny to boundary to create a stoppage game - from that came their transition under pressure and weary f50 entries.

We have forward and reverse gears.

The first qtr, albeit uber pressure from the opposition, it displays regardless of pressure we still manage to turnover and transition with blistering speed, hence our space i50.

This is almost 'switch flicking', we know how and when to tempo the game and it seems the opposition can't take away our control of that.

We still have upside.

Even in finals pressure we can turnover and transition with speed, our one wood, from looking at that game we can find more of this game. When we can't our defence (not just the back 6-7 but the whole team defence) holds up and then we can tempo the game.

I reckon we can apply more one wood game than what we did in the QF.

 

[Carringbush2010]

The last 2 seasons it has been pointed out how we do not fit some of the statistical profile of top teams / premiership teams and we'd need to fix X, Y, Z. The thing is that, we still manage to win most games so... ?

For this whole year we have all the metrics of a premiership team box ticked.

Ok there have been certain games where this is not the case, however our bad is exception our good is norm.

 

[eyeroller]

For this whole year we have all the metrics of a premiership team box ticked.

Ok there have been certain games where this is not the case, however our bad is exception our good is norm.

The main one I've heard this season is the whole scoring from front half vs back half. The other top teams are all front half scoring teams and we are back half. Not sure if it matters that much, as long as you score enough to win.

 

[No SPIN]

Herald Sun has expected score based on where shots are taken from. Not sure if it is a champion data thing, but it had the expected score as 55 - 70 Dees way.

Likewise last night they had Swans winning 72 - 69 last night.

Don't know about you, but l think l prefer the actual scores to the expected scores

Obviously if a score changes then it alters a game, as a goal goes back to the centre or a side changes what they are doing to counter what is going on.

Interesting, our score goes back by 5 points despite missing 4 goals inside 30.
It would be fascinating to see the methodology behind this expected score prediction.

 

[thebaldfacts]

View attachment 1798002

This happened with 18:25 left on the clock. The TV angle is from behind, so you don't really see the contact. What is interesting is that he got the free , played on as no one was on the mark, and looked like he decided at the last minute not to kick and just got a handball out in time as a Collingwood player was coming towards him.
Could they argue he was already impacted?

 

[sr36]

I'm not certain this is a deliberate ploy, not for that amount of game time in any case.

I think it's the way we've played for one and a half years. And it's why quarter one has been more dominant than quarters 2 and 3. And why we come back hard when behind, but don't totally destroy teams when in front. When the scoreboard is behind or in the balance, it's full out attacking options. When we put a gap on them, it's taking some time out of the clock and safer down the line for territory options. It's been standard basketball tactics for years.

 

[sr36]

Herald Sun has expected score based on where shots are taken from. Not sure if it is a champion data thing, but it had the expected score as 55 - 70 Dees way.

Likewise last night they had Swans winning 72 - 69 last night.

Don't know about you, but l think l prefer the actual scores to the expected scores

Obviously if a score changes then it alters a game, as a goal goes back to the centre or a side changes what they are doing to counter what is going on.

It's a really silly way to look at a game. It's suggesting that the skill execution in general play that occurs is the truth of who should have won the game, whereas the skill execution that occurs when kicking for goal is just luck.

 

[3rdMan]

The main one I've heard this season is the whole scoring from front half vs back half. The other top teams are all front half scoring teams and we are back half. Not sure if it matters that much, as long as you score enough to win.

Idea being that it's harder to score from the back half against better teams, especially in high pressure finals. Not entirely without merit, though all scoring will be more difficult, it's the use of stats to support us being poor at scoring from the other sources that's flawed.

The stats analysis in AFL media is poor across the board though. They'll take a few stats and use that as the standard for how the game needs to be played regardless of context. They'll then use averages to tell us whether a certain team is capable of playing the one "right" way. Most ignore that we have a very context driven gameplan we can play very differently from quarter to quarter. Fairly sure we were also the number one team for scoring from the centre square at one point.

Just look at how quickly these supposedly "stats driven" analysts jump from one team to another to completely discredit their views. Stats can't be both important and that volatile. The length of an AFL season makes stat analysis difficult, especially if you consider games against lesser teams as not being useful in that analysis.

 

[sideswipe]

It's a really silly way to look at a game. It's suggesting that the skill execution in general play that occurs is the truth of who should have won the game, whereas the skill execution that occurs when kicking for goal is just luck.

The only utility of that stat is pointing out(pun intended) where they lost the game.


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[Carringbush2010]

The main one I've heard this season is the whole scoring from front half vs back half. The other top teams are all front half scoring teams and we are back half. Not sure if it matters that much, as long as you score enough to win.

No I don't think it does, the trend is from forward half, we're gonna buck that trend.

 

[gappa]

Interesting, our score goes back by 5 points despite missing 4 goals inside 30.
It would be fascinating to see the methodology behind this expected score prediction.

Would it be some of the goals we kicked would, on average, have been points? For example Crisp’s? So overall, even if Jamie and Mihocek’s shots were counted as gosls we still come up short?

 

[3rdMan]

Interesting, our score goes back by 5 points despite missing 4 goals inside 30.
It would be fascinating to see the methodology behind this expected score prediction.

I wonder if it's based on inside 50s as well not just shots? We didn't kick too many tough goals (Crisp, DeGoey) and certainly missed some easy ones.

Melbourne's misses were definitely tougher shots. Their closer misses were mostly rushed snaps, their set shots on tough angles or a long way out.

We led the game from beginning to end, hard to make the case that Dees were unlucky, but really not at all concerned by any narrative the media want to run with.

 

[Carringbush2010]

I think it's the way we've played for one and a half years. And it's why quarter one has been more dominant than quarters 2 and 3. And why we come back hard when behind, but don't totally destroy teams when in front. When the scoreboard is behind or in the balance, it's full out attacking options. When we put a gap on them, it's taking some time out of the clock and safer down the line for territory options. It's been standard basketball tactics for years.

Willing to bet that yeah in front 3 qt time defend but if the opportunity rises push to score, < that would be the strategy imo. In that last qt I reckon we had limited but some opportunity to do that but went possession game instead.

Is that what you mean by 'overdoing' defence?

 

[sr36]

The only utility of that stat is pointing out(pun intended) where they lost the game.


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It tells you which team got slightly better shots at goal.

But the way it gets discussed suggests that nailing a pass to a forward is more reflective of the match than nailing a shot at goal.

 

[OniAu]

Just texted Greg Norman to congratulate him on his 8 corrected Majors.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nice. Tweeted to Schappelle Corby , said she didnt have to do those 20 years as she almost got off. She was stoked