Universal Love 🏆 GF = PIES WIN PREMIERSHIP #16 🏆🥇

[ThePhantom777]

I believe there is no better way to celebrate a Grand Final win than to pick apart fellow posters' words and argue semantics over how we won it.

BRB, I'm just checking over threads from March and April so I can remind posters who've made terrible predictions as well.

Please ignore my match day thread posts. My brain doesn't function properly for 2 hours on game day

 

[ThePhantom777]

‘He was on’: Inside Pendlebury’s three-quarter time take over

Hayden Skipworth and Jarrod Wade take us inside Scott Pendlebury's three-quarter time take over.

www.collingwoodfc.com.au

 

[beez]

Could you show me where the AFL released their statement on the umpiring? Only thing I've seen is the "has the ump stuffed up" twitter page.

I'm mistaken. I don't think they have released one.

I read/heard somewhere that it was only the Markov 50 that the AFL admitted was wrong, but maybe I am conflating that Twitter page (which is very good) with the AFL.

 

[Big Bryza]

Hipwood and Rayner usually save their best for us but maybe it was a classic return to mean performance at the right time for us

Classic flat track bullies. Neither of them get near it away from the Gabba.

 

[Kes1984]

Incidentally, has anyone seen the expected scores data for the grand final?

Asking for Simon Goodwin

Simon Goodwin

Age

47

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

8.8

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

lol

I imagine with some freaky Brisbane snaps and goals and some of our missed set shots, the margin will have been bigger than it really was.

 

[Big Bryza]

This is everything.

 

[caloschwaby]

The quotes I’ve listed above from Nico post are clear and definitive. If you don’t think they are dismissing hard work in favour of luck in “pinching” a flag, then I can’t help you.

Never asked for help, cheers. No point us continuing on about it when you're clearly not seeing the intention and meaning of the original poster as well as any of my follow-ups.

Go Pies

 

[Big Bryza]

Apologies if it has already been posted but did anyone else hear Fly on 360 when he said everything has been filmed over the last few months and he had been mic'd up.

What an amazing doco that could be going hand in hand with the flag.

Fingers crossed.

I heard him mention this on SEN the other day. I hope they go all in on a Netflix 'Last Dance' style doco.

 

[Big Bryza]

Obviously very happy for every single player who played on Saturday, but does anyone else feel an extra sense of satisfication for the nine players below who had to endure the heartbreak of the 2018 Grand Final and came back 5 years later to win it in the tighest of margins?

[*] Scott Pendlebury
[*] Steele Sidebottom
[*] Jack Crisp
[*] Brayden Maynard
[*] Jordan De Goey
[*] Jeremy Howe
[*] Mason Cox
[*] Will Hoskin-Elliott
[*] Brody Mihocek

That's why I've felt sad for Adams who starred in 2018, but missed out this year.

I know Elliott, Moore, J Daicos and Murphy were also on the list in 2018, but obviously didn't play on the day for various reasons.

Yes. I noticed Bruzzy and Sidey were 2 of the guys to go and pick a number of Lions players up off the ground. True sportsmanship.

I really feel for Taylor Adams. He was our best player in the 2018 GF and i hope the fact he, McStay and JFN missed out this year, inspires the group to go again next year.

 

[Big Bryza]

Nothing says "I've got your back, we barrack for the same team" like a bunch of posters ripping me for every poor word choice in a post that elatedly and emotionally celebrated our premiership


Feel like I'm going to be apologising for weeks at this rate.

I took your original post in the way you intended for it to come across.

However, i think because we are still in the week following one of, if not the greatest flag of all time for our club, that your type of analysis might be better received in weeks and months to come. I just think we were so damn well prepared throughout the season that we were able to own every moment that came our way, bar the KB game. It requires an element of luck but ultimately i think we've seen one of the greatest coaching performances of all time. That includes the entire coaching staff and high performance group. We then had the players to go and execute in the moment.

As always, we all love this club and are totally stoked about what has occurred over the past 2 years, and especially what happened last Saturday arvo.

Go pies.

 

[Pistol Night]

 

[Bianconeri]

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

 

[Pistol Night]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

So we get half the players of the 2 teams we beat to win the flag? Good stuff Johnno.

 

[caloschwaby]

Incidentally, has anyone seen the expected scores data for the grand final?

Asking for Simon Goodwin lol

I imagine with some freaky Brisbane snaps and goals and some of our missed set shots, the margin will have been bigger than it really was.

I couldn't seem to find how its calculated online, but just going by AFL stats I could do something approximating something of an expected score using seasonal averages.

BRIS this year averaged 13.8 goals for 12.1 behinds, having an average goal/behind ratio of 1.14.
COLL 12.1 goals for 10.6 behinds, ratio of 1.27.

Bris had on average 27.9 shots on goal (SOG) per game, COLL 25.3 SOG/game over the 2023 season. We can moderate each sides # scoring shots on Saturday based on these to "bring them back down to their average", so BRIS 27.9 SOG / 21 SOG during GF = 1.33. The higher they are over 1.00 = they didn't have as many SOG as expected based on their seasonal average. For COLL 25.3 SOG / 30 SOG during GF = 0.84.

For 30 SOG, it would be expected by COLL seasonal average that 1.27 goals would be kicked for every 1 behind. A ratio of 17 goals for 13 behinds gives us 1.31, approximately close to our 1.27 ratio average over the season (limitation of goals/behinds being whole numbers). This would give us a score of 115. (-3.1% if you want to account for the difference in ratios from my method = 111)

Of BRIS 21 SOG, with a 1.14 seasonal goal/behind ratio, 11 goals/10 behinds gets a ratio of 1.1, again the closest whole number of goals/behinds to their seasonal ratio. Their score would be 76. (+3.6% difference in ratio = 79)

Now if you would like to use the SOG moderation factors to account for each side going over/under their expected SOG on the day based on their seasonal averages, simply apply them to the above scores.
BRIS 76*1.33 = 101
COLL 115*0.84 = 96

Which if I might say, doesn't sound too far off what most early pre-game predictions would've had the game at - a one goal game either way.

I dare say what you're looking for is the 115 vs 76, which would reflect an expected score with hindsight of the # SOG for the game and respecting that anything can happen on the day. This is directly applying the average accuracies onto what SOG the teams actually achieved on the day. So it pretty accurately reflects the sentiment that Coll could've stormed home had we not kicked 1.6 in the 3rd Q and Bris hadn't been so accurate for so long.

Those moderation scores are a bit of a bonus, as they're more compensating for Brisbane's lack of FWD supply vs our abundance of supply relative to how they've performed over the season, which might be a little skewed toward teams such as Melbourne with all their junk I50 (if they could actually get SOG for them!). In reality Brisbane just came up against a better defensive unit than they've usually gone up against this year and shouldn't necessarily be "rewarded" for that. This is more of what I'd be looking at to predict the scores during the week building up to the game, not knowing how many shots will be scored.

Thanks if you've read the whole thing! Would love any feedback on my method, I suspect I spent a bit too much time on this but it was interesting to work out and seems to feel right.

 

[sideswipe]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

And the two finals that Melbourne lost.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[legendstatus]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

This is some funny shit!

Seriously, I could get a job at Fox/C7 and provide better analysis and commentary than 75% of the muppets in the media

 

[Kes1984]

I couldn't seem to find how its calculated online, but just going by AFL stats I could do something approximating something of an expected score using seasonal averages.

BRIS this year averaged 13.8 goals for 12.1 behinds, having an average goal/behind ratio of 1.14.
COLL 12.1 goals for 10.6 behinds, ratio of 1.27.

Bris had on average 27.9 shots on goal (SOG) per game, COLL 25.3 SOG/game over the 2023 season. We can moderate each sides # scoring shots on Saturday based on these to "bring them back down to their average", so BRIS 27.9 SOG / 21 SOG during GF = 1.33. The higher they are over 1.00 = they didn't have as many SOG as expected based on their seasonal average. For COLL 25.3 SOG / 30 SOG during GF = 0.84.

For 30 SOG, it would be expected by COLL seasonal average that 1.27 goals would be kicked for every 1 behind. A ratio of 17 goals for 13 behinds gives us 1.31, approximately close to our 1.27 ratio average over the season (limitation of goals/behinds being whole numbers). This would give us a score of 115. (-3.1% if you want to account for the difference in ratios from my method = 111)

Of BRIS 21 SOG, with a 1.14 seasonal goal/behind ratio, 11 goals/10 behinds gets a ratio of 1.1, again the closest whole number of goals/behinds to their seasonal ratio. Their score would be 76. (+3.6% difference in ratio = 79)

Now if you would like to use the SOG moderation factors to account for each side going over/under their expected SOG on the day based on their seasonal averages, simply apply them to the above scores.
BRIS 76*1.33 = 101
COLL 115*0.84 = 96

Which if I might say, doesn't sound too far off what most early pre-game predictions would've had the game at - a one goal game either way.

I dare say what you're looking for is the 115 vs 76, which would reflect an expected score with hindsight of the # SOG for the game and respecting that anything can happen on the day. This is directly applying the average accuracies onto what SOG the teams actually achieved on the day. So it pretty accurately reflects the sentiment that Coll could've stormed home had we not kicked 1.6 in the 3rd Q and Bris hadn't been so accurate for so long.

Those moderation scores are a bit of a bonus, as they're more compensating for Brisbane's lack of FWD supply vs our abundance of supply relative to how they've performed over the season, which might be a little skewed toward teams such as Melbourne with all their junk I50 (if they could actually get SOG for them!). In reality Brisbane just came up against a better defensive unit than they've usually gone up against this year and shouldn't necessarily be "rewarded" for that. This is more of what I'd be looking at to predict the scores during the week building up to the game, not knowing how many shots will be scored.

Thanks if you've read the whole thing! Would love any feedback on my method, I suspect I spent a bit too much time on this but it was interesting to work out and seems to feel right.

Interesting. I get what you’re doing here. It’s an interesting way to look at it. Good work.

And I reckon for all those scoring shots and our domination, the 115 to 76 wouldn’t be far fetched. 4 points really did flatter them.

 

[Kirby]

This is some funny s**t!

Seriously, I could get a job at Fox/C7 and provide better analysis and commentary than 75% of the muppets in the media

Yeah your game day abuse of our players would go down a treat!

 

[sideswipe]

Yeah your game day abuse of our players would go down a treat!

I had a bit of a retrospective look at the game day thread. There are some posters who should be ashamed of themselves.

Think my favourite was from the Cubicke of Courage calling for Pendles to be subbed off.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bunter]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

i gather that goodwin was named coach ?

 

[Jafo]

Here’s one for the rumour file and whether it’s true or not, I hope it is true coz I F’n love it!!

Apparently this happened yesterday morning..

This morning the players & coaches had a meeting
Assistant coach Leppitch came in with a small black box.

He addressed all of them & said enjoy win, have fun & party -BUT think of this feeling we're all having now.

In the backs of yr mind wherever you are the next couple of months…consider this - we can win one flag & slide down the ladder or you can have this feeling for next few years? What do you want ?

He opened the box & pulled out his 3 premiership medals

He said i know what we need to do -They all roared

McRae said WE are not ONE hit wonders & when preseason starts we train harder & longer

Coaches will not let this group slide !

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I had a bit of a retrospective look at the game day thread. There are some posters who should be ashamed of themselves.

Think my favourite was from the Cubicke of Courage calling for Pendles to be subbed off.

That’s the crappy Ewoks movie, yeah?

 

[Vicky Park]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

This again emphasise the blindness of many in the media. They don’t get it. They don’t ‘see’ what we are doing to win games. They are stuck in the old ways of analysing games, but Fly has us doing things differently. Johnson has also completely missed the importance of Pendles, who coached us on field through critical stages of the last quarter.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

7 Lions players, wow, we’re going to struggle to beat them when it counts. Probably won’t get past the Prelim though because GWS have 6…

 

[MagpieJoel]

View attachment 1823035

Think he missed the part where we won the premiership.

What a dickhead. Missed the mark again.