List Mgmt. Premiership window - list age profile

[Jelly Bean]

There’s a lot of tactics involved on draft day though . If we only had one top five pick in 2005 they might have gone for Thomas rather than Pendles and hoped he slid. That said, Daisy was our best player in the 2010 final series

Well yeah, we clearly would have selected Thomas at 4 if that was our first pick, instead of Pendles. My point was that he probably would have already been picked in the prior 3 picks.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Sidey will only be 33 next year. With his durability, fitness and game style, he can easily play till 34/35.

We've seen how important onfield leadership was to our premiership this year. Unlike previous eras, we should be looking to extend the age of our veterans as much as possible rather than trying to retire them off early. With longer seasons now, we should look at managing games played and rotate to make sure our young guys still have opportunities.

I think they've both only got one more year in them (which incidentally should be enough for them to take out the title of the most games for a set of teammates playing together, at around 310 games). Pendles may have one more after that (but I suspect not, meaning he'll get to 400+ games, but that is all).

 

[DopeMaster]

Sidey will only be 33 next year. With his durability, fitness and game style, he can easily play till 34/35.

We've seen how important onfield leadership was to our premiership this year. Unlike previous eras, we should be looking to extend the age of our veterans as much as possible rather than trying to retire them off early. With longer seasons now, we should look at managing games played and rotate to make sure our young guys still have opportunities.

Agree 100%. If managing Sidey / Pendles to 15 games a year while exposing youth gives us an extra year or two out of them I’m all for it. Wheel em out for finals etc - it’s definitely what I’d do.

 

[ClaytonM]

With a premiership now in the bag, and proof that Naicos is a geniune superstar whose game holds up in the big finals, I'm hoping we have the basis to create a geniune Pies dynasty era. A lot is made out about our list profile and how "old" by average age it is and how we might fall off the cliff. I think with the right trades/FA to complement, we can maximise the return we get from having a once in a lifetime Naicos on our list for the next 10+ years.

I've categorised our players by 3 year age cohorts and whether they are top tier (ie previous AA quality, top 5 BnF, Brownlows, Norm Smiths etc) or role players.

Age cohorts as at start of next season

Vintage (33+) - expect 5-10 big games (ideally in finals): Top tier (Pendles, Sidey, Howe), Role players (Cox)

Veterans (30-32) - expect 10-15 big games: Top tier (Crisp, Mitchell, Adams), Role players (Mihocek, Elliott, WHE)

Prime (27-29) - expect 15-20 big games: Top tier (JDG, Moore, Maynard), Role players (McStay, Cameron, Markov, Frampton)

Improving (24-26) - expect 10-15 big games: Top tier (Jaicos, Hill, IQ), Role players (Murphy, Lipinski, Noble, Johnson)

Breakouts (21-23) - expect 5-10 big games: Top tier (Naicos), Role players (McCreery, Ginnivan, Reef, Macrae)

Looking at this, you'd expect we'd still be right in the window for another 1-2 years whilst these age cohorts remain relatively unchanged. By end of 2025 though, as the current Vintage crop retires and our current Prime group becomes veterans (ie JDG, Moore, Maynard), you'd probably expect a drop off.

At that stage it might not be a bad idea to do a mini rebuild in the 2025/26 drafts post North priority pick compromised drafts and just before the Tasmanian team comes in to try find a couple more top tier draft talent to complement Naicos as he moves into his prime years. Similarly, that would be the time to go big on a gun 27 year old free agent to complement the (Jaicos, Hill, IQ) cohort which is weaker than our current Peak group of JDG/Moore/Maynard.

As to what to do right now, given our limited draft capital I'd see whether we can package up picks to try get a higher first round pick to have a better shot at a top tier talent or target more Hill type high upside F2 trades (e.g. Denver Grainger-Barass), or top up with FA veterans for free for the next 1-2 years. The key thing will be really trying to develop the McCreery/Ginnivan/Reef/Macrae/Allan/Ryan and hope a couple can become top tier quality like IQ and Hill have become.

Personally think the window is probably closed. Very few teams go back to back. See Geelong.

If we don't go back to back then all those 30+ players make it even harder the year after. Not saying we can't win again in the next few years, but we need to find legitimate replacements for a number aging stars now and start transitioning them in to the team over the next 1 to 2 years.

Flags are bloody hard to win and Lions, GWS and dare I say it Carlton should be better for the run this year. Tinkering with the list will not cut it in my mind.

 

[Drought Break]

Will need to manage the older players next year. Sidey, pendles, Mitchell, Mihochek, Howe need to all miss about 4 games. Hopefully some of the younger ones will step up to the plate.

 

[gouki88]

Will need to manage the older players next year. Sidey, pendles, Mitchell, Mihochek, Howe need to all miss about 4 games. Hopefully some of the younger ones will step up to the plate.

I think we'll probably avoid outright resting them for 17% of the season, especially for those like Pendlebury who doesn't seem to be in any need.

 

[jmac70]

I think we'll probably avoid outright resting them for 17% of the season, especially for those like Pendlebury who doesn't seem to be in any need.

Plus Pendles will reach 400 next year. No way he’s missing games.

 

[jmac70]

Personally think the window is probably closed. Very few teams go back to back. See Geelong.

If we don't go back to back then all those 30+ players make it even harder the year after. Not saying we can't win again in the next few years, but we need to find legitimate replacements for a number aging stars now and start transitioning them in to the team over the next 1 to 2 years.

Flags are bloody hard to win and Lions, GWS and dare I say it Carlton should be better for the run this year. Tinkering with the list will not cut it in my mind.

We’ll win it next year.

 

[gouki88]

Plus Pendles will reach 400 next year. No way he’s missing games.

Nor should he. Doesn't need to

 

[gouki88]

Personally think the window is probably closed. Very few teams go back to back. See Geelong.

If we don't go back to back then all those 30+ players make it even harder the year after. Not saying we can't win again in the next few years, but we need to find legitimate replacements for a number aging stars now and start transitioning them in to the team over the next 1 to 2 years.

Flags are bloody hard to win and Lions, GWS and dare I say it Carlton should be better for the run this year. Tinkering with the list will not cut it in my mind.

Whilst consecutive flags are hard, all of Brisbane, Hawthorn, Richmond & Geelong have either done it or have near done it in the last 25 years. Those 4 clubs have 14/25 in the last quarter century - seems to me that teams are pretty good at staying on top for prolonged periods.

Coincidentally, we have several staff involved in one or more of those clubs and their periods of winning. Most importantly, the coach and the boss (Wright).

 

[Ugene41]

Yea we've proven our current list is good enough and our guns in their prime will still be in the right age group over the next 2-3 years.

Why would we prematurely throw ourselves into a rebuild when we need to maximise the current window as much as possible. Can't be satisfied with just one and it doesn't seem like Fly and the team are either.

 

[Bloben]

One thing to consider is when we start to lose sidey, Pendles, Howe, Cox etc. then we would become a destination club for many free agents. All of a sudden we will have a top end list with some gaps and cap space and more importantly a winning culture. Geelong has shown how you can keep topping up to sustain success. And they didn't have a 20 year old Naicos

 

[Jen2310]

We're about to blood some youth with the departure of Tay, so will be one 30+ year old less on the list.

 

[magpies42]

There is little doubt we are approaching an age cliff.

Our backline looks to be the youngest section of our team, and after Howe goes, there probably isn't a need to refresh much (versus upgrade) through new personnel. And with the likes of Ryan, Dean, and other youngsters on the list, we seem solid enough for a few years. I can definitely see Murphy retiring early though through concussion.

Our forwardline is in a little trouble, but not dire. Mihocek will go down quickly in my view, and is very hard to replace. Kreuger a good option, but unproven at senior level and breakable. Elliott out for Johnson is straightforward. While McStay isn't young, he seems to have a long contract still to run. Our small / medium forwards are all pretty young.

The midfield obviously is the glaring issue. Adams and Mitchell probably only have 2 years left each max. Same with Pendles and Sidey. Same with Cox (max). Same with Crisp frankly - I think his form was lagging this year until finals. I don't rate WHE or Lipinski as being able to step up. De Goey mid aged. As to current young replacements from outside the 23, there isn't much. Macrae may or may not make it, Allan has not yet shown whether he may make it one day. Reef has some doubt on him also. I think we need to target hard young mids (inside mostly) in the coming drafts / trading, and we need to sign that 213 cm basketballer who nominated us earlier this year (Condon?) and start developing him in the ruck.

The other positive is that we will have a lot of salary coming off the books after 2 years, and so we could pick the best FAs you'd expect.

I too feel like our most glaring need is midfielders. Pendles and Sidey will no longer carry the load, neither can Mitchell for that matter. Tay did all year and came up short when it counted most…in any case he is moving on. Degoey lacks motivation during the regular season, is not as consistent. Disagree on Crisp, he will push on. But we need more power in the midfield.

Mihocek will play on for some time. He doesn’t rely on anything more than his wit and courage, he will be fine. Elliot will be a big loss, AJ is a poor replacement for him.

We need some players to take the load off Sidey, Pendles, Mitchell, Howe Mihocek so that they’re cherry ripe for finals. Fiorini springs to mind as a player who could play a 10 game cameo season to lessen the load on some of our older maestros.

Fin, Allan, Ryan can hopefully combine for 15+ if not cementing a spot in the best 25 or so. We obviously need Krueger and Dean to come good, it doesn’t look like we’ll get much in other in the offseason.

We need to take a squad mentality into the season, rotate and rest players…the age profile of problematic.

 

[JLC]

Personally think the window is probably closed. Very few teams go back to back. See Geelong.

If we don't go back to back then all those 30+ players make it even harder the year after. Not saying we can't win again in the next few years, but we need to find legitimate replacements for a number aging stars now and start transitioning them in to the team over the next 1 to 2 years.

Flags are bloody hard to win and Lions, GWS and dare I say it Carlton should be better for the run this year. Tinkering with the list will not cut it in my mind.

I went back and watched AFL 360 after Fly was first appointed. We were written off by Wheately and Riewoldt and maybe rightly so.

Fly didn't rebuild when we were 17th so I hardly think he is rebuilding now.

We have an amazing game plan and style, an amazing culture and some top end talent.

We go again and again.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[gouki88]

I too feel like our most glaring need is midfielders. Pendles and Sidey will no longer carry the load, neither can Mitchell for that matter. Tay did all year and came up short when it counted most…in any case he is moving on. Degoey lacks motivation during the regular season, is not as consistent. Disagree on Crisp, he will push on. But we need more power in the midfield.

Mihocek will play on for some time. He doesn’t rely on anything more than his wit and courage, he will be fine. Elliot will be a big loss, AJ is a poor replacement for him.

We need some players to take the load off Sidey, Pendles, Mitchell, Howe Mihocek so that they’re cherry ripe for finals. Fiorini springs to mind as a player who could play a 10 game cameo season to lessen the load on some of our older maestros.

Fin, Allan, Ryan can hopefully combine for 15+ if not cementing a spot in the best 25 or so. We obviously need Krueger and Dean to come good, it doesn’t look like we’ll get much in other in the offseason.

We need to take a squad mentality into the season, rotate and rest players…the age profile of problematic.

Neither of these things are true. Adams played mostly half forward this year

 

[Ugene41]

I went back and watched AFL 360 after Fly was first appointed. We were written off by Wheately and Riewoldt and maybe rightly so.

Fly didn't rebuild when we were 17th so I hardly think he is rebuilding now.

We have an amazing game plan and style, an amazing culture and some top end talent.

We go again and again.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Yea exactly. I really hope we don't make the mistake of forcing a rebuild like we did in 2012/13 and retiring/trading out a whole bunch of best 22 players to play the kids. Cost us 4 years out of the finals and wasted prime Pendles/Sidey/Cloke years. Can't afford to do that with generational Naicos talent. And the only long term top 10 draft pick player we got out of that period that we otherwise wouldn't have got without a rebuild was JDG.

Any rebuild should be based on a natural drop off. If we fall off the cliff in 1/2/3 years time then so be it. The key is not to trade any future firsts in this period unless it's for a generational KPF. No selling the farm with 2 first round picks for the likes of Treloar, Beams, Taranto, OMeara etc.

Otherwise our strategy should be always trying to improve the list and not just trade out older players for draft picks. As Fly says, his mantra is that we always try to get better.

 

[loki04]

This is a more realistic view (albeit on the optimistic side of things) than the crap some have been spewing in the wake of our premiership win.

We will need to change a few magnets though as players can and do fall off fast when it happens.

Imo there were times through the season all of Howe Pendles Steele Elliott and Mihocek showed signs of it.

What happens if more of those signs become more regular and game to game?

A massive drop in team performance will follow.

We need Reef, Allen and Macrea to come on.
We need a younger ruck option coming through.
There will inevitably be a transition from much loved veterans to younger newbies.

I don't think it will change up too much next year, but the year after imo will see some major change ups.

Talk of 3 peats with this current list is imo a bit fanciful.
Back 2 back much more realistic target and I wouldn't be banking on the triple until we see how our trajectory looks next season.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Bloody hell. Talk about the glass half empty view. Why will Checkers go down quickly? Elliott is still playing the best footy of his career and his body has never been in better shape. Mcstay will play another 4 years with us. DeGoey is dead set in his prime. Ed Allan is a kid with great weapons and we have every reason to believe he will be a player. Reef has enormous upside with his size, pace and goal scoring ability. Why are there doubts on Reef? Cox could ruck for another 3 years if he maintains the rage and desire.

And Murphy will go early due to concussion issues.

Lord, I'd hate to read your comments if we were coming off another GF loss.

Unfortunately it looks like this risk is still very live domus.... Horrible for the kid, but can't have too many more concussions in him - 2 more max and he's gone in my view. would be very sad.

 

[Apples]

Yep

GWS are my flag tip for next year. Reckon they'll be unstoppable

We need to get the succession plan going asap for 2024. Kreuger, Allan, Macrae, McInnes and Dean all need to be making their way into the side.

Of those players you list, Dean and Allan should step up and play games next year. Not sure about Macrae and definitely sceptical about McInnes and Kreuger.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I think our future success will have more to do with our coaching, development and recruiting staff, and their ability to innovate and make us better.

They’ve already wrung an enormous amount out of our modest list - however it’s encouraging that post GF Fly has spoken of “many areas for improvement”.

It’s curious that Bolton and Leppa won’t have line coach responsibilities next season - it’ll be interesting to how their roles play out in practice. For example, are we moving away from the forwards / mids / backs structure, and instead slicing and dicing our team some other way?

 

[Bianconeri]

I think our future success will have more to do with our coaching, development and recruiting staff, and their ability to innovate and make us better.

They’ve already wrung an enormous amount out of our modest list - however it’s encouraging that post GF Fly has spoken of “many areas for improvement”.

It’s curious that Bolton and Leppa won’t have line coach responsibilities next season - it’ll be interesting to how their roles play out in practice. For example, are we moving away from the forwards / mids / backs structure, and instead slicing and dicing our team some other way?

Did Bolton ever have line responsibilities here?