Review AFL Round 18 autopsy - GWS Giants defeated by Geelong by 7 points

[Art Vandelay_]

Great work, NSFB. Doesn't really immediately give an answer to our problem but it seems that, looking at those ladder positions vs clearance stats, clearances are only part of the picture and possibly can help a team that's a little poorer around the ground get a leg up, while a team that's stronger around the ground manages to get away with being fairly average in the middle and at stoppages. I know that our stoppage numbers have been very poor this year, which means that teams wanting to exploit that weakness will just force stoppages as much as possible.

I guess it's more what happens after the clearances that is important. No point in clearing the ball if we lose it two handpasses later.

One thing that I'm pleased about is that I haven't seen as many goals kicked against us in the opposition 50 after a ball up. Might just be my imagination but we seem to do those a bit better than last year.

as it turns out by subtracting centre clearances from clearances, which should give us stoppage clearances... we are still ranked 17th in that regard, ahead of 18th placed Collingwood by .1 of a clearance... So we are getting smacked all around the ground in this department, surely in finals we need to start winning first possession more often.

 

[Teriyakicat]

as it turns out by subtracting centre clearances from clearances, which should give us stoppage clearances... we are still ranked 17th in that regard, ahead of 18th placed Collingwood by .1 of a clearance... So we are getting smacked all around the ground in this department, surely in finals we need to start winning first possession more often.

Lucky we can't fall much farther than that, NSFB. We seem to be getting spanked in that area every single week.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Lucky we can't fall much farther than that, NSFB. We seem to be getting spanked in that area every single week.

It's been happening for 3 seasons, with the single exception that we did alright (5th or 6th, but only one side cleared away) in centre clearances in 2012.
West's last full season.

 

[YY_Cat]

After Partridge made mention a few days ago of the ruckmen and their Hitout numbers so far this season, I decided to find out more about our clearance numbers which haven't been great this year.

On 9 occasions we have played with all 3 recognised ruckmen (Simpson, McIntosh and Blicavs) and it has yielded clearance differentials of 4, -7*, -1*, 4*, 1#, 0, -18, -13, -20. for an average differential of -5.55

On 5 occasions we have played with (McIntosh and Blicavs) as the ruck combo which has resulted in clearance differentials of -10#, 5, -12#, -21#, 8* for an average differential of -6

On 2 occasions we have played with (Simpson and Blicavs) as the ruckmen and the clearance differentials were -7* and 3 for an average differential of -2

and on 1 occasion (last game vs GWS) we have gone in with the ruck combo of (Simpson and McIntosh) which resulted in a clearance differential of -12#




* denotes a match where we played one of the 5 worst clearance teams (apart from us who are 17th in this category) which are ( Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane, St.Kilda, West Coast)
# denotes a match where we played a top 5 clearance team. which are (Hawthorn, GC, GWS, WB and Port Adelaide)




So which combination is better?

on the surface Simpson and McIntosh who are our big no.1 rucks have the worst average, but that was against a top 5 clearance side (GWS) with a very good ruckmen in Mumford ( who I wish we still had )

Simpson and Blicavs combination has the best average, but were beaten in clearances in one of the two games together by a bottom 5 clearance team (St.Kilda), but it is probably too small a sample size so far to know definitively how effective/ineffective they operate together.

The all 3 ruckmen combination has been tried the most and yet considering 3 of the 5 worst clearance sides featured this combination, the fact they don't have the best differential doesn't fill me with confidence, also has to be noted the # result was against Hawthorn (who are the best clearance side).

However 3 large negative differentials against middle of the road clearance teams is not flattering either.

Lastly we have the McIntosh and Blicavs combo which has featured 5 times and on 3 of them against top 5 clearance sides ( is that CS showing his hand over which combo he prefers against good clearance teams?? who knows). They appear to perform quite well against teams that are not top 5 clearance teams but are well beaten against teams that are.

As of today the current top 8 ranks accordingly in terms of clearances.

• Hawthorn (1st)
• Geelong (17th)
• Sydney (7th)
• Fremantle (8th)
• Essendon (11th)
• Port Adelaide (5th)
• North Melbourne (12th)
• Collingwood (16th)

So maybe as you suggest DanA if we can find a combination that will be able to make us a middle of the road clearance team against the above teams, then we will be in with a shot for a flag, but what combination will work the best against those teams??

Great stats, any more? such as:
1, Any stats about how many games Hawks, Freo or Swan win and lose when their centre clearance is under the opponents.
2, which stats are standing out when they lose or close to lose.
3, Any stats about the centre clearance when we faced those three, how many win or lose (might not matter since everybody know the result already)

Some thought:
It looks CS are designing some game plan now against those three for playoff. The putting back of Varcoe reminders me Wojcinski somehow. Does CS want him play as a similar role?

 

[Bobby_]

• Hawthorn (1st)
• Geelong (17th)
• Sydney (7th)
• Fremantle (8th)
• Essendon (11th)
• Port Adelaide (5th)
• North Melbourne (12th)
• Collingwood (16th)

terrific post

surprised by Fremantle there, 8th and they got Clarke/Sandilands, Mundy, Barlow, Fyfe, Crowley and Hill all lined up in the guts.
And Hawthorn ranked 1st! Bloody strange but probably shows it's more about mindset than physical match-ups as you'd categorically expect Hawthorn to completely defeat us in clearance differentials and yet, we seem to be so even in that area of the ground while Hawthorn blows Fremantle away and we struggle against Fremantle.

 

[dazbroncos]

Scotty is a cagey prick I reckon. Played liked it and to a degree coaches like it. Gives nothing away to the press and controls every situation he can. However I the box I reckon he can't help but let it go.. And he does.

It would not surprise me to see something different over the next few weeks in regards to structures and positions. I'm not saying a massive overhaul but just some tinkering.
That, with a combined extra 10% output from the team overall with the pointy end of the season here could be what gets us going full clip.

Go Catters

 

[FredLeDeux]

Scotty is a cagey prick I reckon. Played liked it and to a degree coaches like it. Gives nothing away to the press and controls every situation he can. However I the box I reckon he can't help but let it go.. And he does.

It would not surprise me to see something different over the next few weeks in regards to structures and positions. I'm not saying a massive overhaul but just some tinkering.
That, with a combined extra 10% output from the team overall with the pointy end of the season here could be what gets us going full clip.

Go Catters

Good morning, Comrade, how goes the struggle?

I think you've got it right about Scotty in the box, it's the closest we see to the real CS.

I also think he uses the pressers to play the opposition, and who could have any objection to that? If he misinforms or under-informs barrackers in the process, well I don't mind being collateral damage in hurting the opposition.

However, as usual, I have absolutely NFI what he means to do about game plans, if anything; but a 10% improvement would make the premiership fight very interesting.

 

[manboob]

Why are you up so early Fred?

 

[FredLeDeux]

Why are you up so early Fred?

Couldn't sleep, also just checking out this thing about catching worms.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Great stats, any more? such as:
1, Any stats about how many games Hawks, Freo or Swan win and lose when their centre clearance is under the opponents.
2, which stats are standing out when they lose or close to lose.
3, Any stats about the centre clearance when we faced those three, how many win or lose (might not matter since everybody know the result already)

Some thought:
It looks CS are designing some game plan now against those three for playoff. The putting back of Varcoe reminders me Wojcinski somehow. Does CS want him play as a similar role?

Question 1:

Winning games with less centre clearances:

• Hawthorn have won 12 games this season and has lost the centre clearance count in 8 of those games
• Fremantle has 12 wins and has lost centre clearances in 5 of those wins
• Sydney has won 13 matches and has lost the centre clearances in 4 of those matches

Losing games with less centre clearances:

• Hawthorn has lost 4 matches and has lost centre clearances in 2 of those matches.
• Fremantle has 5 losses and has lost the centre clearances in only 1 of those matches.
• Sydney has 3 losses and has lost centre clearances in only 1 of those matches.

Question 2:

When assessing this question I decided to record the differentials for Tackles, Clearances, Centre Cl, contested possessions, Un-contested possessions and Hitouts for Hawthorn/Fremantle/Sydney to see what varies when they win or lose.


Fremantle and Hawthorn had lower average tackle counts when they won, which makes sense because the team that wins usually has less tackles as they have the ball, and you can't tackle your own team.

Sydney however has a higher differential of tackles when they win, which again makes sense, as anyone who has watched Sydney in recent seasons knows that tackling is their mantra.... anyway for each team now.

Hawthorn:

Whether hawthorn win or lose seems to have very little affect on hitouts as the average win differential drops from +2.83 for a win down to +2.25 for a loss, however what does change for the Hawks is uncontested possessions and to a lesser extent contested possessions. when hawthorn win the average 57.9 more contested possessions than their opposition, yet during a loss this plummets to -10.25, So therefore it is critical to stop the outside run of players like Hill and I.Smith as well as players who spend time at HB like Suckling, Birchall and Mitchell. All 5 of these players generate high uncontested possession numbers for Hawthorn.

In our last match against the Hawks the top 5 UC possession getters for Hawthorn were Birchall (20), Hill (19), Hodge (18), Simpkin (14) and Suckling (13)

In my earlier post i noted that the afl statistics had Hawthorn as the number 1 clearance team, and that is true, in aggregate terms i.e most average clearances, However I have found that during losses their clearance differential is 0 while during wins it is -.33, so they may generate the most clearances but they also concede more than their respective opposition.

Seeing as their clearance differential improves slightly when they lose, and this is the same for centre clearances where they average -2.33 during a win and -1.2 during a loss...

maybe its better to let Hawthorn win clearances as they are better at when they lose.... So scotty clear out the centre circle and let the hawks have the ball first

As for the games where they are close to losing ( i decided 15 points or under), there are two games that match the criteria (Essendon round 2 and GWS round 11). Both those times centre clearances and clearances were below their winning average, and in GWS' case they limited the uncontested possession to only +33 (below winning average) despite the game being at the G, with all it's open spaces to run ( IIRC though the game was wet, so that probably brought GWS into the game more)

Fremantle:

this one I'm going to have a hard time with as I rarely watch Freo play.... I wonder why Ross

so as someone who seems to study the opposition a lot, any ideas Bobby_ ?


In contrast to Hawthorn, Fremantle tend to win clearances when they win (3.67) and when they lose (0.80)

surprised by Fremantle there, 8th and they got Clarke/Sandilands, Mundy, Barlow, Fyfe, Crowley and Hill all lined up in the guts.
And Hawthorn ranked 1st! Bloody strange but probably shows it's more about mindset than physical match-ups as you'd categorically expect Hawthorn to completely defeat us in clearance differentials and yet, we seem to be so even in that area of the ground while Hawthorn blows Fremantle away and we struggle against Fremantle.

As you eluded to Bobby a side with those players for them to be 8th in clearances is surprising considering Sandilands/Clarke generate +26.4 hitouts in a win and a respectable +9.4 hitouts in a loss... again their clearance rankings are based on aggregates, so for Freo to be 8th in clearances yet have positive clearance differentials, suggests their games do not have as many centre bounces (Freo's utter fear of scoring goals??) and not as many stoppages. Also when Freo lose they average 10 more Inside 50's conceded.

Fremantle are ranked 8th for total average disposals, which given their manic pressure and the linked game below, suggests fremantle are very efficient once ball is in hand. I.e they don't stuff around with the ball.

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2014/070820140601.html

In the game I have linked above, I was staggered to see that Freo had won and won comfortably (38 points), given the dogs gave them a bath in I50's, Clearances ( which is staggering given freo thrashed WB in hitouts), Free kicks 19-4 WB favour... yet got beaten 6 goals to 13... Fremantle's efficiency at work?, maybe this is not the only game where this has happened??

The most notable aspect of Fremantle's losses is that while they gain +12.08 more uncontested possessions in a win, in a loss they get thrashed in this area (-61.2).

Losses to HAW (-156)... expected given this is hawthorn's strength, Sydney (-35), NM (-20), Port Ade. (+6) and St.K (-101), again Bobby_ seeing as I rarely watch freo, could this mean freo can be exploited with outside run? or is it an anomaly?

Sydney:

Firstly given that Sydney is top of the ladder atm, it is in no way as a result of their ruckmen (Pyke/Derickx) as regardless of a win or loss, they have only won the hitout count in 4 of 16 matches. Which results in -16.8 in a win and -6 in a loss on average.

We know that the Swans love to tackle, as highlighted above, this is only the case when they win (+8.7) as when they lose the match they also lose the tackle count (-4.33). So the key is to tackle more than the swans do, as it appears as though their game depends on tackles and clearances, when they win they win both clearances (+1.62) and tackles, while when they lose, they also lose clearances (-4) and tackles. This trickles down to Contested possesions and uncontested possessions as well.

So by winning the clearances and thus denying the swans tackles in the process... as you have cleared the ball instead, their possession game is limited somewhat as they are the 3rd highest ave. disposal team in the league. when they win they average +39.2 more disposals (11.6 C and 27.6 UnC) while in a loss that becomes -9.67 (-1.33C and .8.33 UnC).

Which is a large drop in uncontested ball, so restricting them in this area limits their ability to generate pressure free entries to their tall forwards (Franklin/Reid/Tippett/Goodes) who average 5.1 contested mark between them and 8.5 goals. So my take on it would be to stop/limit the uncontested possessions, pressure the ball carrier (pressure acts, tackles) so that their tall forwards are denied silver service all game, by shutting down or limiting the uncontested possession players like Malceski (17.5), McVeigh (16.1), Jetta (13.1), Shaw (16.3) which would be a good start.

Question 3:

in our 3 games vs those opposition we have fared as such in centre clearances:

• Hawthorn were +1 against us in Centre Clearances
• fremantle were +2
• Sydney were +6

Sidenote:

given Fremantle ave. +3.67 in clearances them beating us by 18 is a significant difference.


P.S Teriyakicat I wish I knew how to add excel tables to bigfooty like you do with the pressure acts

 

[FredLeDeux]

NotSoFatBastard absolutely top work.
Who said the byes are useless?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

NotSoFatBastard absolutely top work.
Who said the byes are useless?

I drank OJ before bed, which can upset my stomach and make my heart race on occasion... Like tonight.

So I thought seeing as I won't be able to sleep, I'll finish my research that I started before bed as a response to YY_cat's question....

9am uni lecture isn't going to be fun though

 

[FredLeDeux]

I drank OJ before bed, which can upset my stomach and make my heart race on occasion... Like tonight.

So I thought seeing as I won't be able to sleep, I'll finish my research that I started before bed as a response to YYcats question....

9am uni lecture isn't going to be fun though

They never are, sorry were, sorry used to be; but they're just as bad for the bloke up front.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

They never are, sorry were, sorry used to be; but they're just as bad for the bloke up front.

Well this lecturer has been my lecturer for all my accounting classes, and he deliberately schedules them for 8 or 9am as he claims people learn better in the morning... Pigsarse, my brain has woken up properly at 8. At least this one isn't 8am Monday mornings like last semester... He was not popular, when he said he did it deliberately... If looks could kill he would have been dead 200 times

 

[FredLeDeux]

Well this lecturer has been my lecturer for all my accounting classes, and he deliberately schedules them for 8 or 9am as he claims people learn better in the morning... Pigarse my brain has woken up properly at 8. At least this one isn't 8am Monday mornings like last semester... He was not popular, when he said he did it deliberately... If looks could kill he would have been dead 200 times

It varies with individuals, but on overall averages, it is now pretty well established that the opposite is generally true.
One should not, however, expect accountants to be familiar with reality or evidence-based information.

 

[Teriyakicat]

NotSoFatBastard- I just take a screenshot of the Excel table. Easy peasy!
Amazing work on those stats, by the way. Thank goodness for OJ, hey?
Shoot it all off to Scotty He'll give you a job crunching numbers in the back room!

 

[Teriyakicat]

It varies with individuals, but on overall averages, it is now pretty well established that the opposite is generally true.
One should not, however, expect accountants to be familiar with reality or evidence-based information.

It definitely is true for young schoolkids. Have you seen how ratty they get after lunchtime?

 

[FredLeDeux]

It definitely is true for young schoolkids. Have you seen how ratty they get after lunchtime?

*I think some do, and some don't, (studies confirm there are definitely morning, afternoon and night people) but there are lots of studies now suggesting that early afternoon, on average, is best for adolescents.
There are also myriad studies saying young kids simply don't get enough sleep, which might explain why they conk out at lunch time, after being forced to get up too early.
The real point is that nsfb's accountancy lecturer is talking through his double-entry.

* You'll certainly get this anecdotally from almost all infant teachers.

 

[Pivo]

NotSoFatBastard absolutely top work.
Who said the byes are useless?

I need the bye to read all that and digest it.

 

[Teriyakicat]

*I think some do, and some don't, (studies confirm there are definitely morning, afternoon and night people) but there are lots of studies now suggesting that early afternoon, on average, is best for adolescents.
There are also myriad studies saying young kids simply don't get enough sleep, which might explain why they conk out at lunch time, after being forced to get up too early.
The real point is that nsfb's accountancy lecturer is talking through his double-entry.

* You'll certainly get this anecdotally from almost all infant teachers.

If you ever look at what some young kids are taking in their lunch boxes (sugars, colourings, etc.), you wouldn't be surprised at why they're so hard to teach after they've eaten.

 

[YY_Cat]

Question 1:

Winning games with less centre clearances:

• Hawthorn have won 12 games this season and has lost the centre clearance count in 8 of those games
• Fremantle has 12 wins and has lost centre clearances in 5 of those wins
• Sydney has won 13 matches and has lost the centre clearances in 4 of those matches

Losing games with less centre clearances:

• Hawthorn has lost 4 matches and has lost centre clearances in 2 of those matches.
• Fremantle has 5 losses and has lost the centre clearances in only 1 of those matches.
• Sydney has 3 losses and has lost centre clearances in only 1 of those matches.

Question 2:

When assessing this question I decided to record the differentials for Tackles, Clearances, Centre Cl, contested possessions, Un-contested possessions and Hitouts for Hawthorn/Fremantle/Sydney to see what varies when they win or lose.


Fremantle and Hawthorn had lower average tackle counts when they won, which makes sense because the team that wins usually has less tackles as they have the ball, and you can't tackle your own team.

Sydney however has a higher differential of tackles when they win, which again makes sense, as anyone who has watched Sydney in recent seasons knows that tackling is their mantra.... anyway for each team now.

Hawthorn:


........................

I wish I can click 100+ likes for this post. I have learned a lot, a lot from the analysis. It's an incredible work.

if there was a premiership for AFL data mining league. I strongly believe Cats fans can win it,...., every year.

 

[manboob]

9am uni lecture isn't going to be fun though

They never are, sorry were, sorry used to be; but they're just as bad for the bloke up front.

When I studied in Spain the earliest lecture was 2pm, such a cliché

 

[Pivo]

When I studied in Spain the earliest lecture was 2pm, such a cliché

Ay, carumba!

 

[The rabbi]

Premiers 2014...bookmark it.

If you're right you'll remind everyone of this, if you're wrong no-one will remember... brave call.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

You've rubbed it in once The rabbi, no need for sloppy seconds.