Review Geelong at the 2014 AFL National Draft - general overview and discussion

[JackFlash]

I really don't think the pick exchange had much or any impact on who we took subsequently with our second pick.

Both Freo and the Eagles all took mids, i reckon Freo would've taken Cockatoo if they had the chance.

 

[year of the cat]

Both Freo and the Eagles all took mids, i reckon Freo would've taken Cockatoo if they had the chance.

Sounds like WC may have as well. Although he is being described as a bolter, Cockatoo seems to have been high on many recruiters' wishlists.

 

[Turbocat]

There must be some very good local spotters in SA that report back to Stephen Wells, as we have done very well out of that state.

Just had a reply from Skippos in me asking about our two SA boys. He made comment about Gregson compared to Touk Miller which I think explains a bit. He said..If Gregson had been in the TAC he may have been rated higher.... makes me think Wells see SA as talented and under valued. We do seem to look interstate quite often yet on the whole most are happy here , and they perform well. How far back that goes I have no idea , Enright was SA , ging back years ago Bernie Smith SA? I think we may do teh same for WA . Its not often that I feel we have got the wrong end of it. Pick 47 and 55 for these two ..who knows P47 was pretty handy when we used it on Enright.

 

[DanA]

For those questioning the pick exchange. The next three that went after Cockatoo were Duggan, Ellis and Weller who were all mids. If we wanted a mid then on the surface the trade appears justified.

I've seen this written a bit in the last 24 hours but I simply can't come around to this way of thinking.

On the debate for a KPD I agree it's a need and I don't disagree with the worry about our future here I just think we're in more trouble on the midfield front making that a priority.

Lonergan -> ??
Rivers -> ??

We've got two KPD's that definitely need replacing but I can see solutions down back with Blicavs, Kolodjishnij and perhaps Walker. Blicavs has already proven himself as AFL level footballer and I think is the best bet to take on the Lonergan role. For me it's not a big jump for a player who's already shown the ability to AFL football to change his role as it is for someone to make the jump front the VFL. In that regard Blicavs seems a far better bet than Kolo, Jansen, Darcy or Hartman, I'd put these four as 50/50 to make it as AFL regulars.

And that's why midfield to me is the bigger need. Christenson and Varcoe have left and we've got four players on close to retirement that need replacing and that's in addition to Guthrie, Caddy and GHS who are already regulars. I don't think Jansen, Hartman and Darcy cut it, three does not cover six and really it's hard to mark them down as certainties until they have played 30-40 AFL games.

Varcoe -> Hartman
Stokes -> Darcy
S.J -> Jansen

Christenson -> ??
Kelly -> ??
Bartel -> ??

The fringes are a big worry, we had Stringer, Hartman, Darcy, Shroader etc play some football and that's always going to open for the next generation of players. But Stokes, S.J, Bartel, Kelly, Christenson and Varcoe are playing 20+ games a season. How do we cover it with what we have?

 

[JackFlash]

both the Perth clubs were pretty keen from reading some of the information being talked about on this website.
Fremantle in particular, can you imagine their centre/half forward line of Walters, Ballantyne & Cockatoo

West Coast were the main players though. They seemed likely to pick him if we didn't as they need to seriously liven up their midfield and forward half as Josh Hill and Sharrod Wellingham don't look like being anything more than handy players while both are now 26 yrs of age.

This from the pre-draft analysis November23rd: Nakia Cockatoo: Rising with a bullet. Blitzed the Grand Final curtain-raiser and draft combine after finally overcoming a nasty foot fracture. Eagles considering at pick 11.

 

[Boxhead_31]

See a lot of mentions of FA or trade being the solution to our KPD lack of depth.

Just a question how much does a quality KPD verses a midfielder cost in FA and how much different in trade value between the two?

Would think just due to sheer volume of midfielders in the league compared to the number of quality defenders would see the cost of the KPD being significantly higher than that of a midfielder.

Also who are the KPD who are FA eligible over the next two or three years?

 

[DanA]

do you think this was the guy Stephen Wells and co really wanted early on in the year and as a consequence, decided to trade down a few places to acquire #10?

You've got to think we initiated the trade to get 10 and had a reason for it but I doubt we'd have looked at a specific player and banked on him being there. I suspect Wells knew that at least two of Fremantle, Westcoast and Richmond would target midfielders and I suspect he wanted to jumping the queue to ensure access to a player. I suspect he did a mock draft and wanted to gain access to a couple of Weller, Duggan, Cockatoo or Ellis which he may not have had at 14.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

You've got to think we initiated the trade to get 10 and had a reason for it but I don't think we'd have looked a a specific player and banked on him being there. I suspect Wells knew that Fremantle, Westcoast and Richmond would target midfielders and I suspect wanted to jumping the queue have access to a couple of Weller, Duggan, Cockatoo or Ellis.

If so he better be a successful 1st rounder like Selwood as opposed to a failure like Tenace. We appear to have gone out of our way to acquire a certain player with #10.

Hope he proves to have been worth the educated gamble.

 

[bulletproof]

My rules for drafting success in the current age:

1- Only take talls or rucks in in the first 8 picks, father son or as rookie selections.

2- Trade to get 3 picks inside 35 every year, or 9 over a three year cycle. Be aggressive in seeking early second round picks, I think this is the new sweet spot for us.

3- Limit picks from over 45 to one per year and use this mostly for mature age picks. The market is efficient, there is not much around this mark these days.

4- Select mostly from AFL Academy programs with your early picks. I now favour these elite program kids over the smokies. The AFL does a good job of picking them out these days.

 

[BigCat1]

For those questioning the pick exchange. The next three that went after Cockatoo were Duggan, Ellis and Weller who were all mids. If we wanted a mid then on the surface the trade appears justified.

Surely this debate ends with the 9 live players chosen btw pick 47 and 35. I believe that Cookatoo would have been there at 14 so did we want any of the following over Gregson??:
Harrison Wigg, Ed Vickers-Willis, Rose, Hamilton, Neal-Bullen, Lonie, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale or McGovern

For me the only ones of interest for our current makeup would have been Neal-Bullen, Wigg and EVW.

I think we rolled the dice hoping for Pickett or Wright but it didn't happen but I'm not sure we lost much either way. It was a gamble that didn't pay off but it didn't end up burning us either

Obviously the Goddard/Stanley was a completely different trade and will be debated for years to come as it plays out. I'd rather the kid that grew up here, barracked for us and I think at pick 21 suits a need over Stanley. However Stanley isn't without hope to turn that around.

 

[JackFlash]

do you think this was the guy Stephen Wells and co really wanted early on in the year and as a consequence, decided to trade down a few places to acquire #10?

It looks like it. “We always had (Nakia Cockatoo) rated very, very highly. We’ve watched Nakia play for a number of years now. He’s a midfielder who can also play half-back and half-forward. Nakia’s a strong boy with a great inside and outside aspect to his game, as well as some brilliance.”- Stephen Wells.
I think Geelong felt they needed to get ahead of Fremantle and West Coast in the draft order to secure who they wanted.

 

[BigCat1]

My rules for drafting success in the current age:

1- Only take talls or rucks in in the first 8 picks, father son or as rookie selections.

2- Trade to get 3 picks inside 35 every year, or 9 over a three year cycle. Be aggressive in seeking early second round picks, I think this is the new sweet spot for us.

3- Limit picks from over 45 to one per year and use this mostly for mature age picks. The market is efficient, there is not much around this mark these days.

4- Select mostly from AFL Academy programs with your early picks. I now favour these elite program kids over the smokies. The AFL does a good job of picking them out these days.

Sensational post.
IMO the only addition is the word tall fwds with top 8-10 picks if your taking them. This draft again proved that KD aren't worth top 10 picks. A tall fwd in the teens seems a risk whereas a tall back in the teens is building for the future. Too many examples to list over last decade.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Nice to see South Australia strongly represented once again..

I believe that brings the current player quota up to 11.

I think the love for South Australians might stem from the fact at how easily they slip into the way of life at Geelong. Drafting South Australians has worked so well in the past, hasn't it?

 

[Teriyakicat]

Roughly half of them are from regional SA (Enright, Stanley, Rivers, Murdoch, McCarthy, Bates) so I reckon they might find the going a bit easier in Geelong compared with Melbourne. Wells also likes his country lads.
As for the others, Adelaide's not the biggest place so again I would imagine it fairly easy to settle in to a rhythm in Geelong.

Other factor (perhaps more importantly) is that in SA most talented juniors will find their way into SANFL or SANFL reserves before being drafted. Thus they are experienced in playing against fully developed men as opposed to TAC Cup. Same goes for WA draftees.

Anyhow, I'll be interested to watch this next crop develop!

Oops- I've just posted similar thoughts re the South Australians. Sorry! In my defense, this post was one page over from the one I initially replied to..

 

[Partridge]

I think the love for South Australians might stem from the fact at how easily they slip into the way of life at Geelong. Drafting South Australians has worked so well in the past, hasn't it?

Either via the draft or trades, Harley, Enright, Ottens and Mackie offer compelling positive evidence. Menzel, Horlin-Smith and Murdoch might be reinforcing that too.

 

[Daniel McL]

For those questioning the pick exchange. The next three that went after Cockatoo were Duggan, Ellis and Weller who were all mids. If we wanted a mid then on the surface the trade appears justified.



On the debate for a KPD I agree it's a need and I don't disagree with the worry about our future here I just think we're in more trouble on the midfield front making that a priority.

Lonergan -> ??
Rivers -> ??

We've got two KPD's that definitely need replacing but I can see solutions down back with Blicavs, Kolodjishnij and perhaps Walker. Blicavs has already proven himself as AFL level footballer and I think is the best bet to take on the Lonergan role. For me it's not a big jump for a player who's already shown the ability to AFL football to change his role as it is for someone to make the jump front the VFL. In that regard Blicavs seems a far better bet than Kolo, Jansen, Darcy or Hartman, I'd put these four as 50/50 to make it as AFL regulars.

And that's why midfield to me is the bigger need. Christenson and Varcoe have left and we've got four players on close to retirement that need replacing and that's in addition to Guthrie, Caddy and GHS who are already regulars. I don't think Jansen, Hartman and Darcy cut it, three does not cover six and really it's hard to mark them down as certainties until they have played 30-40 AFL games.

Varcoe -> Hartman
Stokes -> Darcy
S.J -> Jansen

Christenson -> ??
Kelly -> ??
Bartel -> ??

The fringes are a big worry, we had Stringer, Hartman, Darcy, Shroader etc play some football and that's always going to open for the next generation of players. But Stokes, S.J, Bartel, Kelly, Christenson and Varcoe are playing 20+ games a season. How do we cover it with what we have?

When you think Jansen is only a 50/50 to become an AFL regular, I didn't even read what you said after

 

[Daniel McL]

Players who have left or are about to leave & their replacements:

Enright - Thurlow
Rivers - Kolodjashnij
Christensen - Lang
Varcoe - Hartman
Lonergan - ???
Kelly - Bews
Bartel - Jansen
Stevie J - Cockatoo
McIntosh - Simpson?

Could see Blicavs taking Lonergan's spot & may perform well, may not, that's why I haven't chosen him or anyone as our Lonergan replacement yet as I don't think we have one.

Thought we were going to get a Lever or Durdin to take over the Lonergan spot in 1-2 years but obviously haven't so will need to try & trade in another ready-made KPD or draft one and wait a couple of years or more before they start performing consistently.

I don't see Jansen replacing Bartel in our DEF/FWD line as I think we will swap the team positions around.

No idea who is replacing McIntosh, Simpson only if he is fit otherwise we don't have a genuine ruckman...

The rest I think could definitely come in for those guys & perform.

Of course by the time some of them have retired in another 1-2 year we will have more draftees to choose from to take their spots.

 

[Saint]

I think the only need to trade up for high draft picks is key forwards and A-Grade mids who are usually pretty much already rated highly.

Key defenders seem to come from all sorts of different recruitment streams, from ex tall forwards to late developers in other leagues (Taylor?) and they tend to move teams a lot.

Ruckmen these days tend to rotate around teams, with my memory of Premiership ruckmen being that they're just about all recycled players. From Barnes and Salmon to Hale.

Key defenders are usually available at mature age as free agents, eg Lake and Frawley. There's no need to draft for them (specifically) when at any one time there will be players at lower teams looking to leave during 're-builds'.

Guys like Hawkins, Cameron and Cloke are as rare as hens teeth and rarely leave clubs.

Same goes for A-Grade mids like Selwood, Bartel, Cotchin, Boomer, Judd, Watson or Ablett (won't leave GC and leaving Geelong for a new club was an aberration).

Those are the guys worth risking high draft picks for. Some of them will turn out to be support acts, which you obviously need, but could always also pick up at free agency, trade or mature age.

To be an A-Grade mid, you need to be inside and outside. Clearances and Goals.

 

[maxy87]

I think the love for South Australians might stem from the fact at how easily they slip into the way of life at Geelong. Drafting South Australians has worked so well in the past, hasn't it?

On the balance of results, I'd say it has.

BTW I believe the number is actually 12 now. Would've been 14 had Stringer and Varcoe remained on the list

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Re - The South Australians - including a few quotes from the 2 Geelong selections

www.indaily.com.au/sport/2014/11/28/afl-draft-nine-south-australians-make-big-time

 

[Teriyakicat]

On the balance of results, I'd say it has.

BTW I believe the number is actually 12 now. Would've been 14 had Stringer and Varcoe remained on the list

That's a huge percentage of Croweaters on the books!

 

[Teriyakicat]

I think the only need to trade up for high draft picks is key forwards and A-Grade mids who are usually pretty much already rated highly.

Key defenders seem to come from all sorts of different recruitment streams, from ex tall forwards to late developers in other leagues (Taylor?) and they tend to move teams a lot.

Ruckmen these days tend to rotate around teams, with my memory of Premiership ruckmen being that they're just about all recycled players. From Barnes and Salmon to Hale.

Key defenders are usually available at mature age as free agents, eg Lake and Frawley. There's no need to draft for them (specifically) when at any one time there will be players at lower teams looking to leave during 're-builds'.

Guys like Hawkins, Cameron and Cloke are as rare as hens teeth and rarely leave clubs.

Same goes for A-Grade mids like Selwood, Bartel, Cotchin, Boomer, Judd, Watson or Ablett (won't leave GC and leaving Geelong for a new club was an aberration).

Those are the guys worth risking high draft picks for. Some of them will turn out to be support acts, which you obviously need, but could always also pick up at free agency, trade or mature age.

To be an A-Grade mid, you need to be inside and outside. Clearances and Goals.

Don't forget that Judd was a Weagle before he went Blue.

I like your summary of the various positions and recruiting to fill them. I hadn't looked at things that way before.

I'm hoping that a fair few more talls drop out of the GWS tree when it gets a shake at the end of 2015- there might be a talented young KPD or future 1st ruck hiding in the branches.

 

[dazbroncos]

Id say the move up was warranted especially if the MF top rank was Nakia. Thing is, there would have to have been a top KPD and top KPF as well.

Perhaps they were gone already or perhaps they were ranked, in term of BPA, lower than Nakia.

Either way, from the WC chatter it sounds like they would have at 11. From what I can gather, Wells and CO got their man where they wanted him.

Now we just need to see if it was worth it… and i'm guess that will take a year or so…

Go Catters

 

[Moneypenny]

That's a huge percentage of Croweaters on the books!

It's because we're pretty awesome

 

[Jon Douglas]

I'm ecstatic with the Cockatoo pick. Lever would have been fine also, can definitely see him forming a very strong partnership with Talia and probably Hartigan over the next 10 or so years.

I just don't see it at all with Durdin. Would have thought that Freo are as KPD needy as us, if not more, and they passed on him also despite having one of the top few midfields in the league...

Strikes me as more of a third tall type, despite his obvious height.

Midfield is more pressing at this point, especially with the immediate impact young players can provide there, as opposed to KPPs...

Think if Cockatoo can get through this preseason, he'll play 6-10 games this year.

Wow - that would be the first draft pick in ages (besides Blitz) that has come into the senior side in their first year - and play quite a few games (Lang had 1).

I hardly ever expect anything from a first year player. I just hope they show some good form in the twos - generally mid to late season - when more acclimatised. But it would cheer me greatly if Cockatoo could play 6-10 senior games in 2015.

I was a very sceptical of the prediction of certain poster on this Board re Hartman in his first year. It has to be said that although he did not play senior in his first season but had a very good VFL season in his second year - and he looked ok in his few senior games that same year.

I think he looks like he maybe a very a good late pick by Wells (and call by our very optimistic poster). You can see if he developed say 20 % over the season he could force his way into the senior side. he is not there yet but he is not that far away either.

What is for sure is that we need a real lift if we are to be serious competition for a top 4 possie in 2015. We need a better ruck set up, we need a stronger midfield (inside and outside now Bundy and Varcoe are gone), a KPF and a decent stopper on small opposition forwards. And then we need to increase our leg speed across the team.

There is a lot of potential in the VFL for us - but it is very unlikely that we will ever achieve 100 % transition from potential to reality in the senior side. Billie Smedts looks like that sort of player presently.

But we need those lifts - and badly. The list is long and looks difficult to achieve.

So it has to be that those with a few senior games have to really start impacting on a game. Like Murdoch, Hartman, Bews or Thurlow. One, maybe two, of these guys has to play good solid senior footy for us to improve. Then we need Mitch Clark to be next Mooney. I know they play differently - so I mean in that we have true competitive and capable CHF. God I miss the Moons.

Then we Caddy to grow in effectiveness as an inside mid. We Simpson or Stanley to be a decent first ruckman. Then we McCarthy or Hartman to become that missing goal sneak to add to Motlop magic.

Then we need a miracle - either Menzel or Blease coming good.

So hard to see this happening - but I live in hope !

Maybe I am a biased Cat fan - or just spoilt - but I reckon GFC have had quite a few things not go right over the past 2-3 seasons - we are probably due for a reasonable run. Maybe. Just maybe.