Opinion 2017 List

[Daz]

Fair warning, I've got a bit of a doomsday post coming up. Not expecting a hell of a lot of support given club forums are optimistic places when it comes to talking about the future but oh well.

Thought I'd look at where we might be at in a couple of years because I think that's where we might find ourselves in a bit of trouble.


Retired (8): Harvey (39), Petrie (34), Waite (34), Firrito (33), Dal Santo (33), Wells (32), Grima, Adams


Delisted (7)

Nahas - He's handy on occasions but we know what he offers and it's not quite enough.
McMahon - Gone.
Wallace - Gone.
Currie - Not good enough.
Mullett - Weak defensively and turns it over far too often. No good.
Harper - Injuries haven't helped but finding enough of the footy has always been an issue.
Warren - Got a bonus year for some reason.


Safe Bets (13)

Thompson (31) - Should be very good for us hopefully in the Dempster/Patfull mould.
Swallow (30) - Suspect 2016 will be a good one for him. Not a star but will still be a key player.
Thomas (29) - Out of sorts but is quality.
Higgins (29) - Just needs to stay injury free.
Goldstein (29) - Most rucks peak at about this age.
Hansen (28) - Shame he's lost 2 years to injury but he's got his best footy ahead of him.
Wright (27) - I always worry about lapses with him but I think he's here to stay this time.
Ziebell (26) - Obvious. Hopefully will be a guy who takes over multiple games a year.
Cunnington (26) - See Ziebell.
MacMillan (25) - Should be a top 5-10 player without ever really standing out.
Atley (24) - I don't think he'll ever be the player we'd hoped for but he should be an above avg half back.
Brown (24) - What he is now is good. Could be outstanding if he becomes strong in the contest.
Dumont (21) - He'll make it. I don't see him as a star but he'll be solid.


Maybe (12)

Gibson (31) - I'd like to hope he'll get pushed out of the side but I have my doubts on the quality coming in.
Tippett (28) - Don't mind him but he's limited. Do you keep an old guy as a backup? No.
Tarrant (28) - Playing good footy but he's a maybe due to injury.
Black (26) - At some point you have to stop making excuses and look at what he's done in 6 years of footy.
Bastinac (26) - Solid player but he is what he is. Not many strengths, not many weaknesses.
Daw (26) - At the least should be a competent backup ruck. I have hopes of him making it as an AFL fwd.
Jacobs (25) - How long do you wait for a bloke to add some composure to his game? Fairly low ceiling. Could make it.
McKenzie (24) - Low ceiling due to being one dimensional but could get to AFL standard.
Wood (23) - If he doesn't make it it will surely be down to lack of effort. Very gifted.
Garner (23) - Don't love that our first rounder's one standout attribute is his tackling. Like him, see him as a midfielder but have my doubts (outside ball, skills).
McDonald (22) - Love his effort, love that he loves North, don't like much else.
Turner (21) - Think he'll make it just on aggression but he hasn't got a heap of natural ability.


Unknowns (5)

Preuss (22) - Really have no idea on him. Don't mind having a project ruck.
Fordham (21) - Looks a great athlete but I don't like much else about his game. At least there's an elite attribute to work with.
Vickers-Willis (21) - Appears pretty vanilla. That's fine but we have a lot of vanilla.
Nielson (21) - I know he competes well but you'd want to be a ******* outstanding defender given he's undersized for a KPD and has horrendous skills.
Durdin (21) - Not sure. Let's just say I ******* pray he's a star.


Concerns

- 8 retirements of quality players over two years is going to be a problem.
- Serious lack of A grade talent coming through. Even the good ones we have are limited in one way or another.
- Our current 23 and unders might just be the worst in the league.
- The distinct possibility of being a 6th-12th team for a while and then dropping down again.
- A bit broader but I worry about the rich clubs getting richer via player movement.


If anyone is still reading, one thing I'll add which may surprise is I don't think we've done a hell of a lot wrong. It's ******* tough work drafting when you're a mid table team for 14 years. Throw in GWS and GC taking about 40 outstanding kids over a few years and it's even harder.

 

[ozzyoslo]

Daz, I think you've pulled the trigger on Mullett too early.

We need to lure a top ender to us not a free agent but a genuine young star.
What salary would Harvey be on ?? Obviously it has decreased sharply over the space of 1 year deals, but what is the threshold point where both parties are happy? Oh Harvey is gone in 2017 got ya now sorry..........we must be surely have some free coin to throw around at this stage, maybe seeds will have be planted end of 2015 to take place. Hopefully some young lads will be sick of GC and GWS territory and want to come back to the home of footy in Melb.

 

[Daz]

Daz, I think you've pulled the trigger on Mullett too early.

We need to lure a top ender to us not a free agent but a genuine young star.
What salary would Harvey be on ?? Obviously it has decreased sharply over the space of 1 year deals, but what is the threshold point where both parties are happy?

Problem is a genuine young star (say Treloar if we could somehow get him) would cost our 2015 and 2016 1st rounders and maybe more. Fwiw I'd take that in a heartbeat but my point is the days of getting a bargain via trade are probably gone.

I don't mind the idea of targeting guys in the Higgins age bracket via FA.

 

[ozzyoslo]

Problem is a genuine young star (say Treloar if we could somehow get him) would cost our 2015 and 2016 1st rounders and maybe more. Fwiw I'd take that in a heartbeat but my point is the days of getting a bargain via trade are probably gone.

I don't mind the idea of targeting guys in the Higgins age bracket via FA.

GWS have locked away those willing to sign but have left Treloar out on a limb I can't see how they can demand 2 x 1st round picks. Personally.

 

[Daz]

GWS have locked away those willing to sign but have left Treloar out on a limb I can't see how they can demand 2 x 1st round picks. Personally.

I'm confident they'll demand it and get it.

 

[Phillyroo]

You have McKenzie as a maybe, and Mullet gone??

 

[Dirty_11]

This is why I don't see the rush in shipping off our older players. If they are still playing good footy and staying injury free I couldn't give a stuff what age they are. I'm not of the opinion that we kick them out the door early and throw some kids that are not ready to the wolves. We need to be very astute in how we change over the list or risk becoming a very poor side. If Drew, Boomer, NDS, Waite and Spud are still producing the football they are playing this year next season do we just get rid of them because they are getting on?

 

[GarnerSmash]

I posted something very similar about a month ago. Up to 18 possible list changes in two years, which is in no uncertain terms a rebuild. This is why i will not be surprised to see some younger players stay on another year or two and a few older players traded to give us some picks to work with. Otherwise we enter another rebuild with mediocre picks which will get us nowhere.

 

[year of the roo]

Not convinced Dal only has a year or 2 left. Been very durable over the years and given the role he plays, could easily keep going. We should hold onto him for as long as possible. Wells is probably unknown too. Could pull the pin next week, could play another 6 years if he gets the body right.

 

[TruRoos7]

Yep it's the killer with adding free agents of Nicky dal and waites age.
Yes nicky dal has been good and Waite, well he's been Waite.
But if by playing these guys along with spud etc have or do cost us some younger guys progressing rather than stagnating in the twos it's not good.

 

[Event Horizon]

With free agency and likely increase in trade activity over next few years, I reckon the list changes are going to be much harder to predict from now on.

We have arguably enough young talent on every line to avoid a rebuild, instead changing as we go.

Nielsen and Durdin are critical, but if we can hold on to Tarrant the back line looks pretty secure for 5 years.

Cunnington, Ziebell, Dumont, Atley, JMac are in their prime. We just have to continue to replenish the outside mids.

And forward line will need to be built around Brown and hopefully Wood, with hopefully one or two others being added through the draft.

No doomsday rebuild for me.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

I'd be interested in seeing our list turnover in the past 5-7 years compared to other clubs (Particularly top ones). Always get the impression we aren't ruthless enough and let guys stagnate on the list.

 

[Harris 10]

I'd be interested in seeing our list turnover in the past 5-7 years compared to other clubs (Particularly top ones). Always get the impression we aren't ruthless enough and let guys stagnate on the list.

We should've had an extra 2 picks at last years National draft but we kept blokes who were finished or were never going to make it.

 

[Harris 10]

.
We have arguably enough young talent on every line to avoid a rebuild, instead changing as we go.

Does this just keep us middle of the road for years to come?

 

[Event Horizon]

Does this just keep us middle of the road for years to come?

It depends on who else we get into the club.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

We should've had an extra 2 picks at last years National draft but we kept blokes who were finished or were never going to make it.

In fairness a club such as Collingwood or Hawthorn can probably afford to pay someone out who still has a year remaining (ie - McMahon) to free up a spot and get a kid in, a luxury we probably don't have.

 

[GarnerSmash]

I'd be interested in seeing our list turnover in the past 5-7 years compared to other clubs (Particularly top ones). Always get the impression we aren't ruthless enough and let guys stagnate on the list.

Since 2009 we have had more list changes than Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Port, at a glance. A combination of going the FA route and a reluctance to go deep into the draft in the last few years has seen the amount of picks used diminish in comparison to 2008 - 2012.

In 2008 we drafted:
Ziebell
Wright
Anthony
O'Keefe
Benjamin

5 list changes with a 40% success rate

2009:
Cunnington
Bastinac
Black
Macmillan
Kennedy
Norris
Garlett (Promoted rookie)

7 list changes with a 57% success rate

2010: Traded for McKinley and Richardson
Atley
Harper
Delaney
Mabon
Speight (Promoted Rookie)

5 list changes with a 29% success rate, likely 14% success rate in a few months. Disaster.

2011: Traded for Sierakowski
Brad McKenzie
Tom Curran
Luke Delaney (Promoted Rookie)
Cameron Pederson (Promoted Rookie)

5 list changes with a 20% success rate, likely 0% success rate in a few months. Disaster.

2012: Traded for Gysberts
Garner
Jacobs
Wood
Wilkins
Currie
Hine
Gibson (Promoted Rookie)
Mullett (Promoted Rookie)
Daw (Promoted Rookie)

10 list changes with a 70% success rate, likely 50% in a few months.

2013: Dal Santo and Nahas via FA
Dumont
Brown
McDonald

5 list changes, all still on list which is to be expected.

2014: Higgins and Waite via FA
Durdin
Nielsen
Vickers-Willis

5 list changes, all still on list which is to be expected.

So we have averaged 6 list changes per year for the last 7 years, which is a decent amount and more than the Hawks and Freo. We went light in 2010 and 2011 with an average of 5 changes so we needed to nail those drafts, however we will likely have only one player from those drafts on the list at the end of the year. Yay for compromised drafts and poor selection. It is this failure that has required us to attack Free Agency to address the lack of ready to go talent on the list.

To put things into perspective we could potentially and justifiably cut 18 players in the next two years.

 

[GarnerSmash]

We should've had an extra 2 picks at last years National draft but we kept blokes who were finished or were never going to make it.

Last year was a really shallow pool. Combined with our recruitment performance over the last 5 years it is odds on whoever we selected would be cut by 2017 anyway.

 

[Donkey Chop]

A lot of crystal balling but yes, we will to turn over a few players in the coming years.

1). We can replace players through FA. There will be more players available every year wanting out of declining teams.

2). Pull a West Coast mini rebuild. Tank a year and get in some top end kids while GWS &Suns play for their flags.

3). Evaluating our kids is very much subject to opinion. Personally I think McDonald will be a star contested/ outside player. We have a 200cm key forward in Brown that would be in the top handful of young key forwards in the game already, still room for improvement.

I do agree will the concern though. North need to be very good in list management, recruiting & development over the next couple.

Great topic Daz

 

[Benno_900]

Of the veterans ... all of Firitto, Grima, Adams, Gibson, McMahon and Waite are easily replaceable.

Wells hasn't played in 2 years anyway and we are relying less on Boomer every season.

It's the other two that worry me. Dal is capable of playing until he is 35 though.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Of the veterans ... all of Firitto, Grima, Adams, Gibson, McMahon and Waite are easily replaceable.

Wells hasn't played in 2 years anyway and we are relying less on Boomer every season.

It's the other two that worry me. Dal is capable of playing until he is 35 though.

Helps that half that list barely played this year.

But yes, there is some room for list space to open naturally.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

Fair warning, I've got a bit of a doomsday post coming up. Not expecting a hell of a lot of support given club forums are optimistic places when it comes to talking about the future but oh well.

Good summary Daz, but you are absolutely looking at this in a glass half empty sort of way, hence your doomsday reference.

If you look at it in a glass half full sort of way it reads much better.

Goldstein, Ziebell, Cunnington, Atley, McMillan, Wright, Bastinac, Tarrant, Jacobs all in their prime. I'd even add Mullett to this list, he will get back to his best once he's injury free.

Wood, Garner, Brown, Dumont, Turner, McDonald will all have 30-50 games under their belts and on their way to becoming good consistent footballers. Brown is the type of player you can build a forward line around.

Thompson, Higgins, Dal Santo, Gibson, Swallow, Thomas will still be playing good footy, I'm not prepared to write any of them off. Dal Santo in particular will play in 2017 and beyond.

Our 2014 draftees will all hopefully have a taste of AFL next year, and while statistics show that 2 or 3 won't make it, I'm confident we will find at least a couple of gems in this batch.

McKenzie, Daw, Black and Hansen are the players I don't have confidence in. 2015 Black is a shadow of the 2013 Black, and I'm not confident he can recapture that form. Hansen just has too many injury problems, I really hope he does get over them because I rate him highly as a player.

As far as recruiting goes, we need to try and snag 4 top 20 draft picks in the next 2 years. We will have 1 each year, then will need to trade for another. Black might get us 1, not sure about the other. Getting either Motlop or Treloer would be just what we need with some outside pace and skills, another key forward would be the other.

 

[Petrie4PM]

Little bit harsh on Mullet / Nahas.

Good start though

 

[Ardent Roo]

Strategy re the retirements/delistings and therefore extent of the re-build may depend on the status of the coaching position at the end of 2016. A new coach coming in MAY want to have much more of a re-build emphasis where perhaps marginal players either in age or ability may be more encouraged to seek a trade/free agency/retire vs if Brad was extended beyond 2016 (not my wish, but hey, its not out of the question).

Personally I don't think that we give enough of an opportunity for younger players to prove their value or get accustomed to expectations when coming up to AFL level, whilst having too much emphasis on giving senior players "one more chance". I hope this does not lead to incorrect calls on guys like Wood, Dumont, Harper and Daw.

 

[Shermanator]

Yay for compromised drafts and poor selection. It is this failure that has required us to attack Free Agency to address the lack of ready to go talent on the list.

To add a little sugar to that latte this years draft is also going to be shallow and our first pick is going to be in the 8-10 region..