List Mgmt. 2014 Draft + DFA Talk Part II

[THE_GUN]

I wouldn't be using Knightmares rankings to judge how good a player may or may not be. His knowledge of prospects although widespread is not that insightful and is often inaccurate.

In any case my point being was I would be just as disappointed if we ended up with Cockatoo as I would if we ended up with Ellis. Not because they don't have have potential or won't be good players, its just that at pick 12 there are much better players on offer who are not only better now but will be better once they reach the AFL system. Although I know you'll disagree with me on Cockatoo.

Thats just ridiculous, How can you say how good a player like Cockatoo aged 17 with missing a full season will not be as good as the other players that get drafted before him or are ranked higher at the moment.

His upside under a professional envoirment with proper experienced coaches and being a full time AFL player is massive, Probably more than any other player in this years draft. He has the potential to be a Rioli,Goodes,wells type player

 

[_RT_]

Well guys just completed the Phantom Draft for Richmond and it panned out as follows:

12. Connor Menadue 188cm 69kg Utility
33. Nathan Drummond 181cm 85kg Midfielder
52. Jordon Cunico 184cm 72kg Utility
70. Ed Langdon 182cm 72kg Forward
88. Anthony Miles Rookie Upgrade

Of that group Drummond would be the only player who would be a chance to play many games next year as a 19 year old mature bodied kid. The other 3 new players would be unlikely to get games at this stage and I haven't really picked them with that in mind. All of them have been picked as players for 2016 and beyond as I'd like to give them a year to develop their bodies and understanding of the game plan at VFL level.

The one consistent angle I have taken with those picks is speed speed and skills and it really does change up the make up of the list just by adding that group of quick players. As I said come 2016 when I expect us to be genuinely entering our premiership window the addition of that pace plus anyone we can pick up this time next year will help with that.

 

[theflea]

I bloody hope not !

If they do select Ellis with #12 - FJ needs to be sacked

Ellis range is more 20-30

So is the utensil.

 

[Tomnat Tigers]

He might only be 17 but he is still much bigger than the opposition which at this level makes the game much easier. Wait until he comes up against people his own size and see how well he does. Cause his sloppy skills and decision making will become much more evident than what it currently is, which is why he isn't in the same consideration as the likes of Duggan, Ahern and Degoey.

Personally I have him at a similar level to Atley from North who is similarly good athlete but disposal is inconsistent so unless Cockatoo can improve his disposal then I don't think he will ever be the player you think he can become and whilst I have only seen a small sample of Cockatoos game it was noticeable that he lacked good to very good ball use.

Though I'm probably talking to a brick wall here.

 

[theflea]

Thats because we are not picking brownlow medalists we are recruiting the best prospects that can play footy at AFL level going forward. Same reason the players picked Bontempelli over Taylor by the length of a country straight no matter how the media like to spin it!!

So why did you like his post?

 

[TigersMan4]

12. Connor Menadue 188cm 69kg Utility
33. Nathan Drummond 181cm 85kg Midfielder
52. Jordon Cunico 184cm 72kg Utility
70. Ed Langdon 182cm 72kg Forward
88. Anthony Miles Rookie Upgrade

No chance we would take Menadue with our first. We will take best available with our first.

 

[bigstyletiger]

He might only be 17 but he is still much bigger than the opposition which at this level makes the game much easier. Wait until he comes up against people his own size and see how well he does. Cause his sloppy skills and decision making will become much more evident than what it currently is, which is why he isn't in the same consideration as the likes of Duggan, Ahern and Degoey.

Personally I have him at a similar level to Atley from North who is similarly good athlete but disposal is inconsistent so unless Cockatoo can improve his disposal then I don't think he will ever be the player you think he can become and whilst I have only seen a small sample of Cockatoos game it was noticeable that he lacked good to very good ball use.

Though I'm probably talking to a brick wall here.

I'm a bit worried about Nakia Cockatoo's lack of exposed form this year and I don't think the club is in a position to call his name out at 12 with other more sure fire players on the board - but to turn him down just because his foot skills aren't flash is a risk. Dangerfield and Fyfe come to mind. Both have brilliant characteristics that override their lack of polished foot skills. Both would be in the top handful of players in the league as they are genuine impact players who impact consistently. When I saw his footage on the AFL website I though wow - but then someone pointed out that he was playing guys a year under him. Much easier to look like Dangerfield playing against guys less physically mature - but the speed he has won't go away. Someone will pick him up in the mid to late teens and could potentially get one of the best players in the draft. Also on his kicking and decision making skills - and I haven't followed him in previous years - he has missed so much footy he is bound to be rusty. And on Atley - far out we adding his pace to our back line would be massive. In the first half of the season we got too stagnant coming out of the back line and we could do with a player who creates chaos and overlap.

 

[theflea]

So what your are saying is that Ellis will be a better player because of what he has produced last season (by the way isnt anything spectacular,Just a good season) What he does have is good reading of the play and good disposal but will never become an elite player , More just a role player similar to Newman,Bowden types (sure they both have been excellent players and played many many games but you will never win a premiership with 22 of these types and you will always be a middle of the road side.

Heres a few quotes that describe the type of season he has had & You judge if thats what we require,You mention a 2 minute video clip. Well Ellis's Video clip compliments him as much as other players clips - After all its the best of his plays he has been involved in.

"His first two games for Vic Metro yielded astonishing averages: 19 disposals, 5.5 tackles, 4.5 inside 50s and a disposal efficiency of 84.5%. In stark contrast, his last two games had averages of 12.5 disposals, 2.5 tackles, 2.5 clangers, two inside 50′s and 48% disposal efficiency."

"Ellis has had one truly dominant game for the Jets this year: however, it was against the Northern Territory, a much weaker opponent. His stats of 35 disposals, 2.1, 11 handball receives and 11 marks is absolutely incredible. However, he hasn’t hit quite that peak against stronger opponents."

"He is certainly an unfinished prospect, and he will take time at AFL level. Earlier in the year, he looked as though he could have pushed for top ten. He may slide out to the second round if other players show they deserve the spot more."


Most people on this board rate Knightmare and use his writeups for refference whilst doing their phantoms or even getting a fairly good understanding of the upcoming players so i will also quote is ranking of Corey Ellis
#50 and he has Nakia Cockatoo at #31 even considering Nakia has missed just about all of 2014 and Ellis has had a decent year

I personally would be dissapointed if the best we could get out of #12 was Ellis

Just on the first highlighted area. I think every club hopes every player 'can' develop into these types of players. However we also know that never happens for whatever reason. but it is also fair to say that a lot players also exceed what most pundits believe a player could develop into. So going on this, you never get 22 middle of the road players, but it is a very good place to start.

 

[theflea]

Thats just ridiculous, How can you say how good a player like Cockatoo aged 17 with missing a full season will not be as good as the other players that get drafted before him or are ranked higher at the moment.

His upside under a professional envoirment with proper experienced coaches and being a full time AFL player is massive, Probably more than any other player in this years draft. He has the potential to be a Rioli,Goodes,wells type player

You could argue that for all players really. No one knows how players will adapt to senior AFL footy until they get into the system. I understand there is probabilities, but you never know.

 

[THE_GUN]

You could argue that for all players really. No one knows how players will adapt to senior AFL footy until they get into the system. I understand there is probabilities, but you never know.

Sure i agree you never know and there are so many unpredictables that could influence development, But if you have a look at what a player like Cockatoo has in his kit bag Speed,Size,Leap,agility and combine these with what his junior coaches say about the character of the kid and how hungry he is to become a elite afl player and how coachable he is. I think 1 of his coaches actually described him as like a sponge and just so hungry to soak up any information he can about the tactics and game plans, Added to this his father and uncles being former players and guiding him through aswell as having all this going for him he is 1 of the youngest players in this draft.

This kid actually was still taken overseas when he was injured and couldnt play just to be a possitive influence on the team and become the runner taking drinks out to his peers and giving encoragment and advise.

Too many ticks to ignore

 

[_RT_]

Just to bring some stats to the Ellis argument. He played 6 games at the start of the year before suffering the foot injury which effectively kept him out until August in the TAC Cup. In those first 6 games he was named in the best 4 times. In those 6 games he had:

Round 1 vs Calder: 22 disposals 2 marks 4 tackles. Duggan 13 disposals 2 marks 8 tackles. Laverde 16 disposals 4 marks 3 tackles. Menadue 23 disposals 4 marks 2 tackles
Round 2 vs Sandringham: 25 disposals 3 marks 2 tackles. Duggan 16 disposals 3 marks 2 tackles. Laverde 14 disposals 5 marks 4 tackles. Menadue 28 disposals 4 marks 6 tackles
Round 3 vs Oakleigh: 20 disposals 2 marks 8 tackles. Duggan DNP. Laverde 14 disposals 4 marks 3 tackles. Menadue 22 disposals 7 marks 4 tackles
Round 4 vs NT: 35 disposals 11 marks. Duggan DNP. Laverde 22 disposals 9 marks 2 tackles. Menadue 24 disposals 5 marks 4 tackles
Round 5 vs Dandenong: 26 disposals 2 marks 3 tackles. Duggan 33 disposals 5 marks 6 tackles. Laverde 28 disposals 5 marks 2 tackles. Menadue 15 disposals 1 mark 3 tackles
Round 6 vs Bendigo: 18 disposals 5 marks 3 tackles. Duggan 26 disposals 4 marks 12 tackles. Laverde 15 disposals 5 marks 3 tackles. Menadue 15 disposals 2 marks 6 tackles.

Averages: Ellis 24.3 disposals 4.1 marks 3 tackles. Duggan 22.75 disposals 3.5 marks 7 tackles. Laverde 18.1 disposals 5.3 marks 2.8 tackles. Menadue 21.1 disposals 3.8 marks 4.1 tackles.

I know a lot of people will say stats mean bugger all, but given the assertion that Ellis hasn't really shown he can dominate I think his consistency is his way of dominating. In those first 2 games Ellis was named in the bests and Western were flogged by 40 points in both games. To me having a kid like Ellis, who has shown that he can constantly get his 20 touches a week is what we need. I'd like to suggest that much like Brandon, Corey Ellis could be that accumulator that goes out every week and gets his 20-25 touches with a minimum of fuss and allows the better players to go about playing their roles better.

I think the problem with a lot of posters on the board is that most of us don't see a lot of the U/18s personally and rely on a lot of what others put forward and because a kid like Ellis hasn't been hyped on here the mention of him being a possible pick for us sends people into a spin. For mine I'm quite prepared to back FJ and the recruiting team on who they take after all unlike the majority here they have been watching the kids for the last 2-3 years.

 

[THE_GUN]

Good post _EAD_ and appreciate the research you have done but as you mentioned statt dont really paint a good picture sometimes

I mentioned earlier about Joel Bowden, A hell of alot of disposals but not always a true indication the player.

I would much rather 20 disposals from brett Delidio than 35 from Joel bowden

 

[_RT_]

Good post _EAD_ and appreciate the research you have done but as you mentioned statt dont really paint a good picture sometimes

I mentioned earlier about Joel Bowden, A hell of alot of disposals but not always a true indication the player.

I would much rather 20 disposals from brett Delidio than 35 from Joel bowden

I would prefer that too and I get what you're saying about Ellis being vanilla, but when you have match winners like we have sometimes adding more vanilla to the mix is just what is needed. Just think about it, if Ellis is picked and Lennon & Vlastuin can step up as well, we get the luxury of having Deledio Martin & Cotchin sitting forward a little more becoming goal kicking threats. Even just having the ability to use Martin & Deledio forward more often makes us a much more dangerous side moving forward.

 

[Stylo]

I would prefer that too and I get what you're saying about Ellis being vanilla, but when you have match winners like we have sometimes adding more vanilla to the mix is just what is needed. Just think about it, if Ellis is picked and Lennon & Vlastuin can step up as well, we get the luxury of having Deledio Martin & Cotchin sitting forward a little more becoming goal kicking threats. Even just having the ability to use Martin & Deledio forward more often makes us a much more dangerous side moving forward.

You can add vanilla later in the draft though. Why waste an early pick on it when there's some quality icing around?

 

[_RT_]

You can add vanilla later in the draft though. Why waste an early pick on it when there's some quality icing around?

Because despite being described as vanilla, I don't think Ellis is, more that he doesn't have the Big Footy hype that other do so doesn't rate.

 

[tigs2010]

Ellis is better than Cockatoo. Cockatoo was playing 16-17 year olds in that one game lol

 

[_RT_]

Ellis is better than Cockatoo. Cockatoo was playing 16-17 year olds in that one game lol

Facts schmacts

 

[Tomnat Tigers]

Out of curiosity would you guy's consider Ellis and Vlastuin as vanilla? If so why?

Cause as far as I'm concerned if we get anyone of their ilk with pick 12 then I couldn't care less how vanilla he may be. Not that I consider them to be vanilla or the likes of Duggan and Ellis for that matter.

 

[_RT_]

Out of curiosity would you guy's consider Ellis and Vlastuin as vanilla? If so why?

Cause as far as I'm concerned if we get anyone of their ilk with pick 12 then I couldn't care less how vanilla he may be. Not that I consider them to be vanilla or the likes of Duggan and Ellis for that matter.

Assuming you're talking about Brandon and Vlastuin, if so then yes I do consider them vanilla, not that there is anything wrong with it. IMO both have the ability to be quality 200-250 gamers, where they will get their 22-27 touches a week on average and will be integral pieces of the 22. Their importance won't be in them being the match winners, but the solid role players who allow the match winners like Martin Deledio & Cotchin in the midfield to star. At the same time if one of them are well held, they will be able to pick up the slack and help keep the team on track.

IMO that is one of the big differences between us and the true top sides. They have those vanilla types who simply get the job done week after week, which then allows the guns to star most weeks. At the moment we need to have our match winners do a lot more than those teams do to simply be competitive with them. When we get to the stage that our vanilla types are able to produce quality games each week then we will be a genuine threat, until then we'll continue to float around the middle of the pack.

 

[Stylo]

I understand the defence of Ellis and actually don't mind him but IMO there'll be significantly better options at 12. I'd take any of Durdin, Duggan, De Goey, Weller or Ahern before him in a heartbeat and at least one of those will surely be available. Ellis would've been a great option if the Trengove trade had gone through.

 

[tigs2010]

I understand the defence of Ellis and actually don't mind him but IMO there'll be significantly better options at 12. I'd take any of Durdin, Duggan, De Goey, Weller or Ahern before him in a heartbeat and at least one of those will surely be available. Ellis would've been a great option if the Trengove trade had gone through.

Agree except for probably De Goey.

 

[Stylo]

Agree except for probably De Goey.

Not a big fan?

 

[tigs2010]

Not a big fan?

Nah I like him. Just have Ellis ahead. Barely

Top of my head 14th and 16th

 

[BeeCee]

I think Vickery may end up playing forward in 2015, but I think long term he will end up as our #1 ruck.

really, wow, hadn't even thought of that but yeah, I like it!

 

[Stylo]

really, wow, hadn't even thought of that but yeah, I like it!

I reckon the plan might be to have Vickery take over from Maric in the next 2-3 years and McBean take over from Vickery in the forward line, with Griffiths staying in his current role.