Certified Legendary Thread 2015 AFL Power Rankings

[Roby]

Roby you're trying to demonstrate a money making scheme.

You obviously need to tell people your staking plan, which you're finally now doing.

Without a staking plan you'd just be whacking the same amount on each game - which you're not.

There's a reason your stakes vary, you obviously are more confident about some results.

If you're making claims about bank increases - which you always have - it's impossible to do so without telling anybody the starting point.

I don't need to tell people about my staking plan because my staking plan is different to yours, and the next guy and so forth.

And my staking plan my change next year depending on success, circumstances, heart condition.


The best thing I can offer is a multitude of advice on how to stake, using a Kelly system for example, different methods, long and short term staking plans, etc..

For example, a person who is just interested in seeing what kind of results it produces I'd say how much money would you not notice if it fell out of your bank account? $500? Whatever the amount it doesn't matter because you don't feel like your risking anything.

If your looking at a long term investment option then the amount and the percentage staked will depend on:

• what are you long term goals?
• how much money do you want to make?
• how long do you want to invest it for?
• Do you want to take money out and different times?

These question may differ over time.

If you dire financial straits and needed to get out financial black hole really quick than you may decide to stake aggressively and over 30% of your bankroll each week as opposed to someone who is looking to just pay for world vacation in 2018 for the family staking 10% a week.

As the amount you stake will depend if you are on the dole, someone working and has 50K spare in their cheque account or if they are wealthy tycoon with several ferraris your staking amount will change because money means different things to you.

We could talk about it all day and there is whole other host of issues like gambling successfully has it's own problems. For example thinking you have won $x amount when in fact you have won $x-$y amount. Many gamblers like to count their winnings and forget their losses, not a good idea for obvious reasons but if you've had big win it's easy to go then waste than money quickly by spending it too quickly, overbetting the following time, or losing it somewhere else.

 

[Lensen]

That's a lot of words to respond to what is basically "if you don't give a starting pool you can just increase stakes late in the year" like that year you were down and suddenly $3 max bets turned into $7 and $8 in an (ultimately successful) attempt to get back in the blact

If you advise your starting bank then you can't do this and it gives your results more credence

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Roby I give up if you don't understand it. It's a question of your claims having credibility. If you don't understand that not declaring a starting bank and varying your staking is disingenuous, then you're really in no position to be spruiking anything.

It's a very, very basic premise.

I guess the important thing is you're doing it now, but you may want to ask yourself why nobody took you more seriously until this year, and why you wasted all that time.

 

[Roby]

Roby I give up if you don't understand it. It's a question of your claims having credibility. If you don't understand that not declaring a starting bank and varying your staking is disingenuous, then you're really in no position to be spruiking anything.

It's a very, very basic premise.

I guess the important thing is you're doing it now, but you may want to ask yourself why nobody took you more seriously until this year, and why you wasted all that time.

Actually were doing it right now and it's actually smart if you do it correctly. Generally you want to be increasing your stake.

I post all the tips before the events. The such sites that offer staking plans, etc... ask for your money without posting tips for free.

I wonder who is most disingenuous.

Remember there never was a a staking plan, originally in 2011 bets were not even placed! Just rankings.

People kept asking me to post betting tips so I did and initially I picked one or two good tips per week.

I didn't realise the power of a good ranking tool could provide so much profit, of course I would started with a massive staking plan and put more on it initially if I had of known the returns it would have generated.

 

[Roby]

That's a lot of words to respond to what is basically "if you don't give a starting pool you can just increase stakes late in the year" like that year you were down and suddenly $3 max bets turned into $7 and $8 in an (ultimately successful) attempt to get back in the blact

If you advise your starting bank then you can't do this and it gives your results more credence

The mistake in 2012 was not increasing the bets, the mistake was not doing it sooner. Even though for most of the year it was running a loss I had identified by betting more aggressively on larger discrepancies it would have returned profit sooner. Why do you think it went from barely breaking even in 2013 to increasing by 10 times the initial stake in 2014?

 

[AlibiMonday]

Am I detecting some Roby contrition? Well the great man is getting more balanced every day. Keep it up Roby - that's a far better way to address others concerns.

 

[Roby]

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 7

1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Bulldogs (-)
4 Essendon (+1)
5 Adelaide (+2)
6 GWS (+2)
7 Sydney (-1)
8 West Coast (-4)
9 Gold Coast (+2)
10 Geelong (-)
11 Port Adelaide (-2)
12 Richmond (+1)
13 Brisbane (+5)
14 Kangaroos (-)
15 Collingwood (+1)
16 St Kilda (-1)
17 Carlton (-)
18 Melbourne (-5)

• If you didn't think Hawthorn could do the three-peat, they currently opened up the biggest lead in Power Rankings history.
• Although the Dockers are closing games out early, in cruise mode they run the danger of dropping crucial games.
• The Dogs showed the previous week was an aberration.
• Even though the Dons lost points this week it wasn't as much as the...
• Eagles who were penalised for playing a NEAFL side and were expected to win by more, in fact the Power Rankings predicted that Josh Kennedy would outscore the Suns. And until he was subbed out he had score twice as many goals as Gold Coast
• Adelaide are still performing despite their outs
• GWS remain healthy and the should take top four and expect to play...
• Sydney in a semi-final, current prediction: Buddy in extra-time
• Gold Coast would have learned A LOT from their game last week
• Don't expect Geelong or Port to make the eight this year
• The Tigers won and went up in the rankings but if the umpiring had been equitable Collingwood would have won. Richmond would have been better off not winning as now they think their best is good enough to be a top four side.
• People like to criticise brand new things but Lions were laughing at the end as obviously inspired by Brion the Lion pushed them up five spots in the rankings and reclaiming back their HGA at the Gabba.
• The Kangaroos...
• are not much better than the youthful St Kilda, but certainly not as bad as Carlton
• and one other club.

Season Forecast

1 Fremantle 18 4 0 141.4
2 Hawthorn 17 5 0 164.8
3 Bulldogs 16 6 0 128.8
4 GWS 15 7 0 121.8
5 Sydney 14 8 0 121.1
6 Adelaide 14 8 0 116.1
7 West Coast 13 9 0 116.4
8 Essendon 13 9 0 109.7
9 Port Adelaide 11 11 0 97.9
10 Kangaroos 11 11 0 97.8
11 Geelong 10 12 0 90.6
12 Richmond 9 13 0 95.0
13 Collingwood 9 13 0 90.7
14 Gold Coast 7 15 0 81.8
15 St Kilda 6 16 0 77.1
16 Brisbane Lions 6 16 0 71.9
17 Melbourne 5 17 0 68.2
18 Carlton 3 19 0 64.0



F1

Fremantle V GWS 27 points

Hawthorn v Bulldogs 28 points

Sydney v Essendon 13 Points

Adelaide v West Coast 26 points

F2

GWS v Sydney Extra-Time

Bulldogs v Adelaide 20 Points

F3

Fremantle v Bulldogs 21 points

Hawthorn v Sydney 38 points

F4

Fremantle v Hawthorn 15 points


Future betting tips

100 beans @ $6 on GWS to make Top 4 Sportsbet

100 beans @ $4 on Hawthorn for Premiers Topsport

100 beans @ $3 on Carlton most losses Betstar

100 beans @ $4.33 on Port to miss top 8 Bet365

 

[lusheslewis]

The Kangaroos (14th) beat 5th ranked Essendon yet don't gain a single spot? Yet Essendon move up to 4th despite losing to the 14th ranked team?

Interesting to say the least.

 

[AlibiMonday]

The Kangaroos (14th) beat 5th ranked Essendon yet don't gain a single spot? Yet Essendon move up to 4th despite losing to the 14th ranked team?

Interesting to say the least.

... yet finish 10th at the end of the H&A. As mentioned - there's a warped logic somewhere in the Power Rankings, but it's just so ill defined that it cannot be made sense of or traced. Roby certainly can't explain it either.

 

[Ochre]

Win by 92 points and drop 4 spots. Brilliant.

 

[Roby]

Round 8 Betting Tips

The two premiership favourites are have been the best teams to bet on the line in the last few years, particularly Freo who are the Kings at it. This year they have done so in each of their games except last week against the Bulldogs (and were not too far either then).

Get them early before they move out.

Take Pies line and at least break virtually even.

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie\Fremantle v North Melbourne| 1070| 1.91 | -24.5 |Fremantle|Centrebet
\Hawthorn v Sydney| 970| 1.92 | -9.5| Hawthorn| Sportsbet

 

[scarecrow2k1]

Round 8 Betting Tips

The two premiership favourites are have been the best teams to bet on the line in the last few years, particularly Freo who are the Kings at it. This year they have done so in each of their games except last week against the Bulldogs (and were not too far either then).

Get them early before they move out.

Take Pies line and at least break virtually even.

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie\Fremantle v North Melbourne| 1070| 1.91 | -24.5 |Fremantle|Centrebet
\Hawthorn v Sydney| 970| 1.92 | -9.5| Hawthorn| Sportsbet

Roby, just a question with your stakes. Im not used to this more complex systematic betting and do it more small money for fun.

Do you still see your system still returning results if the stakes are altered? I noticed fir example you bet heavily on WCE last week and they made it by quite a way, but do you still expect someone to turn a proift if they simply bet the same amount on each result

 

[Father Jack]

Just how much were West Coast expected to win by? And were West Coast expected to go full out for four quarters in the wet with a reasonably decent pre-existing injury list of their own?

I'd be surprised if Adam Simpson doesn't head down to the CEO's office this morning clutching a copy of Roby's Power Rankings in one hand and a resignation letter in the other

 

[doppleganger]

Roby, just a question with your stakes. Im not used to this more complex systematic betting and do it more small money for fun.

Do you still see your system still returning results if the stakes are altered? I noticed fir example you bet heavily on WCE last week and they made it by quite a way, but do you still expect someone to turn a proift if they simply bet the same amount on each result

Why would you ever bet the same amount on each result?

All numbers are just pulled out of my arse.

Roby's model may forecast WCE to beat GC by 78 points, the line is set at 40......Roby would be very confident that the line bet would get up.

Roby's model may have forecast Adel to beat St.Kilda by 55 points, the line is set at 38.....Roby still confident in making a significant bet, but obviously you would put a larger % of your money on WCE.

If you want some consistency, bet the same overall total amount each round, but don't lock yourself into betting the same amount on each game.

 

[Final Siren]

What a ride for Melbourne!

2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 6

18 Melbourne (-)

2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 13

12 Melbourne (+1)

2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 20

4 Melbourne (+10)

[...] obviously due to their new ranking position will be loading up on the Dees till the end of the year [...]

If you're shocked with the rankings this week you'll be more shocked with the reality of what is about to happen with Melbourne.

2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 23

10 Melbourne (-3)

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 1

6 Melbourne (+3)

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 4

5 Melbourne (+1)

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 5

9 Melbourne (-4)

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 6

12 Melbourne (-3)

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 7

18 Melbourne (-5)

 

[SloppyJoe]

Why would you ever bet the same amount on each result?

All numbers are just pulled out of my arse.

Roby's model may forecast WCE to beat GC by 78 points, the line is set at 40......Roby would be very confident that the line bet would get up.

Roby's model may have forecast Adel to beat St.Kilda by 55 points, the line is set at 38.....Roby still confident in making a significant bet, but obviously you would put a larger % of your money on WCE.

If you want some consistency, bet the same overall total amount each round, but don't lock yourself into betting the same amount on each game.

It's amazing how this is not obvious to many in this thread.

I can understand the point made by some about not declaring an opening balance, but how can you criticise Roby for varying the stakes on individual bets?

And Roby - did the fact that Port lost to Brisbane also add to the Eagles' drop this week?

 

[rumply]

What a ride for Melbourne!

ouch...just stick to tipping Roby, at least we can respect what you are doing with those. & as much as it pains me to say, you look to be doing a similar thing with Essendon's rankings this year, not as extreme as the Dees, but nonetheless there's no way the Bombers are worthy of 4th place atm.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I think he just needs to forgo the predictive nature of the model and just come back to reality and say what it really is - a betting tool.

 

[Roby]

It's amazing how this is not obvious to many in this thread.

I can understand the point made by some about not declaring an opening balance, but how can you criticise Roby for varying the stakes on individual bets?

And Roby - did the fact that Port lost to Brisbane also add to the Eagles' drop this week?

Only a small factor as Port's performances are becoming less relevant (where are those Pesky Port fans) but your correct if you are assuming that their win against Port is not as highly rated anymore. West Coast need one good performance against top ranked side and they will be back up the top.

ouch...just stick to tipping Roby, at least we can respect what you are doing with those. & as much as it pains me to say, you look to be doing a similar thing with Essendon's rankings this year, not as extreme as the Dees, but nonetheless there's no way the Bombers are worthy of 4th place atm.

To follow up on the previous reply, it's all related. Essendon in your eyes may not be deserving of fourth but then there is considerable gap between top three and the rest of the competition. What the rankings are saying is nobody is deserving of fourth spot. Still, the Hawks account for nearly 17% of all weighting and they also performed well against Sydney and their performance against Freo in Perth this year was not too bad all things considering.

Remember the high Melbourne weighting allowed the rankings to tip them against Richmond making a very good profit and they also beat the betting lines three of their first four games. Unfortunately they had one bad game and they thought they we crap again after considerable improvement in the last 12 months.

Half the problem with the Dees is even when they show improvement there is very little excitement or energy coming from their camp or supporters and their bubble bursts as soon as it expands.

 

[The King!]

what would a hypothetical swans win by say 4 goals on the weekend do, presuming you give umpiring the all clear and everyone bar Hodge of course plays

 

[Roby]

what would a hypothetical swans win by say 4 goals on the weekend do, presuming you give umpiring the all clear and everyone bar Hodge of course plays

Do Heeney and Johnson play?

Four goals would mean they would jump to second with a considerable gap behind the Hawks and and a considerable gap in front of Freo.

 

[The King!]

Do Heeney and Johnson play?

Four goals would mean they would jump to second with a considerable gap behind the Hawks and and a considerable gap in front of Freo.

Hodge was the obvious out i could see affecting the weighting

Thank you for the reply.

 

[hazard]

Only a small factor as Port's performances are becoming less relevant (where are those Pesky Port fans) but your correct if you are assuming that their win against Port is not as highly rated anymore. West Coast need one good performance against top ranked side and they will be back up the top.

So you'd expect a pretty massive drop when you lose to Port, despite getting a ride from the umpires and Port missing their two best mids right? Yet Hawks still sitting in first

 

[The Swans Blog]

Do Heeney and Johnson play?

Four goals would mean they would jump to second with a considerable gap behind the Hawks and and a considerable gap in front of Freo.

Seriously? Johnson hasn't played since 2012. Heeney won't be back until after the bye.

 

[Final Siren]

What the rankings are saying is nobody is deserving of fourth spot.