Strategy 2015 best side

[Teriyakicat]

As is often the case TC, we are lumped with imperfect publicly available data. Kicking efficiency on its own is not publicly available (AFAIK) so I used the imperfect but closest substitute. Conclusions drawn therefore need to be appropriately caveated.

It's not so much kicks from frees and marks that tilt the numbers but kicks that are not under pressure. More of these occur in the back half of the ground than the forward half.

I'll have a dig around later for some stats I found a few days ago- I think the Cats had the highest disposal efficiency differential, which is a great stat to aspire to be best at. (Though I will add here that I'd rather we were best at winning games and GFs )

 

[Hawkas1988]

Hey guys, i responded to Bobby in another thread asking him these questions, however i thought it would be good getting a few opinions. Apologies if I aren't suppose to post it here. I know I could read a lot of this thread for my answers but I don't have the time atm haha.

I realise the cats are one of the most interesting teams this year in terms of best 22, or more specifically how they structure up in the forwardline. In your opinion, if all players are fit, what will your forwardline look like??

What rucks/ruck-forwards will play?

Really interested in the predicted line ups. It's probably hard to tell even as a cats fans.

Also if all fit, which talls are definite best 22 players?? Hawkins, Taylor, Lonergan are certainties. Rivers too you would think.
Blicavs a certainty? What possie will he play?

Clark/Stanley/Vardy/McIntosh/Walker/Kersten/Simpson, who plays and how would you order them? I know they play different positions but who fits in etc.

Would love to hear some opinions and I'm genuinely intrigued, especially considering we are playing you Round 1.

 

[Turbocat]

I can not speak for others , but I suspect we will not really know till we have played the NAB's. Who will be fit to play , who fits in the side structure , who we are playing will play a part. Historically we have always done better v Hawks with strong talls , Hawkins , Clark and Bartel would be locks if fit.
Stanley , Murdoch and Motlop probables and possibles are Walker , Kersten , Lang etc. I have no real feel how they will mesh , time will tell.

 

[Hawkas1988]

So probably Hawkins and Clark as KPF's, Kersten as a 3rd tall or Stanley as 3rd tall/ruck-forward.

McIntosh number 1 ruck or Simpson?

Blicavs play 2nd ruck, wing or defense?

Yeah the NAB challenge will definitely help sort some of these questions out

 

[Stan The Caddy]

So probably Hawkins and Clark as KPF's, Kersten as a 3rd tall or Stanley as 3rd tall/ruck-forward.

McIntosh number 1 ruck or Simpson?

Blicavs play 2nd ruck, wing or defense?

Yeah the NAB challenge will definitely help sort some of these questions out

It is a tough question to answer this far out, because as you're aware there is alot more depth in this area than last year.

Provided that the players that are expected to be fit actually are, I think that McIntosh will be our main ruckman to be backed up by Stanley. Blitz will play in defense, hopefully allowing Taylor to be freed up a bit more, although he does have a good record on Roughy so they may want to keep that match up the same. Up forward it will be Hawk and Clark as our 2 keys along with Stanley providing support when he is not in the ruck.

This leaves Walker, Kersten and Simpson outside of the 22, along with Vardy and Menzel who will be unavailable through injury. Hopefully they will both not be too far away from playing some VFL footy early in the season.

Of course this is just my opinion and I'm sure others will have a differing one.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

This is a rough idea as to how the side might line up.

The team that I'd like to see trot out for round 1

Bews Lonergan Rivers
Enright Blitz Taylor
Guthrie SJ Duncan
Motlop Clark Stokes
Murdoch Hawk Bartel
McIntosh Caddy Selwood
Stanley Kelly Mackie
Sub: Horlin-Smith
Emerg from: Smedts Thurlow Kersten Walker Lang

A couple of young blokes down back which I think is a must, a strong midfield, some pace up forward with Stanley to back up Mac in the ruck. Horlin-Smith to come on as the pace goes out of the game to give us an injection in the guts. Kelly as a rotational mid and Mackie as the 7th defender. If a couple of these players are unavailable for round 1 I think that there are still some talented youngsters ready to take their place in the side.

Bring on the Hawks!

Are you starting to become worried yet?

 

[Rainfall]

This is a rough idea as to how the side might line up.

Are you starting to become worried yet?

Thats too tall a team.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Thats too tall a team.

Yeah you could be right mate. It is quite tall but some of those talls are very mobile for their size so I'd be happy if we lined up like this, but I see your point though.

 

[Hawkas1988]

This is a rough idea as to how the side might line up.

Are you starting to become worried yet?

I always respect your club and side. A rival yes but I respect your mob a lot, so I'm not going into it thinking we now have your measure or anything.

So I reckon either way, Round 1, Easter Monday, it will be a tight match, hopefully high scoring and no doubt momentum swings throughout.

As for that team though, I agree with Rainfall, a little tall in the backline.

We will probably have our forwardline as:

Rioli Roughead Hale/Ceglar
Breust Gunston Puopolo

So the matchups would be out of whack in that regard.

However I don't see who goes out, as Blicavs seems like a best 22 player these days. You're going to have a few unlucky talls come round 1, it's great depth to have though and allows someone like Vardy to get back playing footy without the pressure of having to make a spot his own straight away.

I'm seriously just so footy starved and can't wait for Round 1.

 

[Lana]

So probably Hawkins and Clark as KPF's, Kersten as a 3rd tall or Stanley as 3rd tall/ruck-forward.

McIntosh number 1 ruck or Simpson?

Blicavs play 2nd ruck, wing or defense?

Yeah the NAB challenge will definitely help sort some of these questions out

Hawkins and Clark as our KPF, Stanley as our second ruck/third tall who leads up the ground
Whoever out of McIntosh or Simpson is fit, if neither than Blicavs gets the call up, if one of them is fit, Blicavs is playing in the VFL as a KPD
Bartel and Murdoch are our our small/mid sized forwards while Stokes/Motlop/Caddy and whatever youngster gets the call up rotate as a high half forward

 

[bulletproof]

So probably Hawkins and Clark as KPF's, Kersten as a 3rd tall or Stanley as 3rd tall/ruck-forward.

McIntosh number 1 ruck or Simpson?

Blicavs play 2nd ruck, wing or defense?

Yeah the NAB challenge will definitely help sort some of these questions out

I think that is their ideal set up. I think Stanley was recruited to replace Blicavs as second ruck and Blicavs will be asked to go back (this became the plan once we missed out on Frawley).

However, it will depend on whether any of our rucks are actually available (Vardy, Mcintosh, Simpson).

I personally think Blicavs will start the season as first ruck and play so well he will be left there. But I think the initial plan was Stanley in the ruck and Blicavs CHB and Taylor loose man. That is the logical explanation for some illogical trade moves.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Hawkins and Clark as our KPF, Stanley as our second ruck/third tall who leads up the ground
Whoever out of McIntosh or Simpson is fit, if neither than Blicavs gets the call up, if one of them is fit, Blicavs is playing in the VFL as a KPD
Bartel and Murdoch are our our small/mid sized forwards while Stokes/Motlop/Caddy and whatever youngster gets the call up rotate as a high half forward

Just to clarify, is this what you want to happen or is this what you think will happen?

 

[Rainfall]

10lana, it's really unfair to have Blicavs put down to the VFL now (atleast as a ruck anyway), and due to his age if he's going to play back mostly, I'd rather him stay best 22 and play backline without doing it in the VFL purely because that's just more development that'll take longer and by the time Kolo, thurlow, bews hit 50 games he'll be at 100+ = he could be a general. Because Blicavs played 2 seasons straight and is reliable injury wise. He did nothing but be there when we needed him, and we just kick him in the ass as soon as he hits the 50 game region and his career is about to kick off.

 

[Lana]

Just to clarify, is this what you want to happen or is this what you think will happen?

I think this should happen and I hope it does but who knows if it will.

10lana, it's really unfair to have Blicavs put down to the VFL now (atleast as a ruck anyway), and due to his age if he's going to play back mostly, I'd rather him stay best 22 and play backline without doing it in the VFL purely because that's just more development that'll take longer and by the time Kolo, thurlow, bews hit 50 games he'll be at 100+ = he could be a general. Because Blicavs played 2 seasons straight and is reliable injury wise. He did nothing but be there when we needed him, and we just kick him in the ass as soon as he hits the 50 game region and his career is about to kick off.

I like Blicavs and it is a little unfair, he is AFL standard but I can't justify playing him ahead of Taylor, Lonergan, or Rivers and he doesn't do enough to select him over any of our other rebounding defenders. I'd rather have Stanley as the second ruckman over Blicavs as it improves our forwardline structure. He provides less benefit on the wing then the next select-able player.

I see him as our third best Ruckman and our fourth best key defender, I see him playing around seven games next year at AFL level, as some of Taylor and Lonergan, and Rivers miss games from injury. I see him as being in our best 22 as a Key defender in 2016, when Rivers retires.

Should both McIntosh and Simpson be unavailable, I see Blicavs as our number 1 ruck, but I hope that this never happens. Only one of Simpson and McIntosh should be playing each week, if they don't have the fitness to run out a game just sub them off at three quarter time, have Stanley ruck the last quarter with support from Clark.

 

[catempire]

I think this should happen and I hope it does but who knows if it will.

I do. It won't.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I do. It won't.

Hello Mr Scott!!

 

[Teriyakicat]

I have absolutely no clue how we structure up in 2015. I know what I wanna see, just like every other Cats supporter (who may have their favourites).
I'm a fan of Kersten so am hoping he makes it next it to Hawkins. I'm not sold on Clark because of his history with injuries. An extensive layoff for a couple of years only to return to AFL training will surely have an impact on the legs, legs which have to support a 105+kg frame. If Clark does stay healthy then he could realistically boot 30 or more goals which is a considerable improvement to Geelong's overall chances.
It would mean Stanley doesn't need to play forward and could be better suited in defence as Lonergan will begin declining anytime now. Only inevitable against such young and athletic forwards emerging in the league.

Josh Walker is an interesting prospect. As is often the case in this game, the players whom you may least expect to make it, do in fact make the most of those chances presented to them and Walker has certainly done himself no harm as he was a good contributor in last years final series. He's about 196cm tall, 100kg's, has excellent hops and marking ability. He's also very strong for a 22yr old and literally runs all day long. His kicking appears to be improving as well so I think Walker is very much a tantalizing prospect for the Cats in 2015.

Blicavs has been training as a defender during the summer. Learning the ropes from Scarlett and teammate Harry Taylor so he could legitimately be seen lining up on Hale at some stage in round 1. But that will depend greatly on how our ruckman are traveling leading into the season opener.

Both Simpson/McIntosh are on modified training programs. Both are doing a lot of running but have yet to be seen partaking in match simulations. Rookie Padraig Lucey and Rhys Stanley have been doing ruck work during the summer training period so perhaps Lucey may come off the rookie list in place of McCarthy who may be out for the year? How the rookie rules work is a little confusing so that may not even be an option at this stage.

Guess my opinion on the usual suspects is that we will now see a gradual decline from some of the players who have been champions for so bloody long. It won't necessarily be a case of playing a youngster for their long-term development over an oldie but more so a case of younger players actually blossoming and looking just as solid as a James Kelly or a Corey Enright.

A player on the LTIL is unable to play for 8 weeks, Bobby. You'd have to be sure McCarthy was gone for that long. Any rookie can replace him.

 

[Partridge]

A player on the LTIL is unable to play for 8 weeks, Bobby. You'd have to be sure McCarthy was gone for that long. Any rookie can replace him.

Does that 8 weeks begin from the start of the season, or pre-season? Because as of today, I'd say the chances of him playing senior footy by Round 8 are zero.

 

[bph25]

Hey guys, i responded to Bobby in another thread asking him these questions, however i thought it would be good getting a few opinions. Apologies if I aren't suppose to post it here. I know I could read a lot of this thread for my answers but I don't have the time atm haha.

I realise the cats are one of the most interesting teams this year in terms of best 22, or more specifically how they structure up in the forwardline. In your opinion, if all players are fit, what will your forwardline look like??

What rucks/ruck-forwards will play?

Really interested in the predicted line ups. It's probably hard to tell even as a cats fans.

Also if all fit, which talls are definite best 22 players?? Hawkins, Taylor, Lonergan are certainties. Rivers too you would think.
Blicavs a certainty? What possie will he play?

Clark/Stanley/Vardy/McIntosh/Simpson, who plays and how would you order them?

Would love to hear some opinions and I'm genuinely intrigued, especially considering we are playing you Round 1.

Ideally we have a fit no 1 Rick Simpson/hmac.
This is unlikely so I'm tipping we see Stanley Clarke blitz all in the side for round 1. Clark fwd with a bit of ruck blitz back with a bit of ruck and Stanley mainly ruck pinch hit forward.
Hawkins Taylor lonergan rivers all play as well.
Vardy if he gets back to fitness will find his way into the side. A lot depends on the health of our list.
If Simpson gets it together and is our number 1 ruck well vardy/Stanley

I think this should happen and I hope it does but who knows if it will.



I like Blicavs and it is a little unfair, he is AFL standard but I can't justify playing him ahead of Taylor, Lonergan, or Rivers and he doesn't do enough to select him over any of our other rebounding defenders. I'd rather have Stanley as the second ruckman over Blicavs as it improves our forwardline structure. He provides less benefit on the wing then the next select-able player.

I see him as our third best Ruckman and our fourth best key defender, I see him playing around seven games next year at AFL level, as some of Taylor and Lonergan, and Rivers miss games from injury. I see him as being in our best 22 as a Key defender in 2016, when Rivers retires.

Should both McIntosh and Simpson be unavailable, I see Blicavs as our number 1 ruck, but I hope that this never happens. Only one of Simpson and McIntosh should be playing each week, if they don't have the fitness to run out a game just sub them off at three quarter time, have Stanley ruck the last quarter with support from Clark.

I'm confident blicav plays 18 games plus if not injured. I think his about to make huge leaps having a big preseason and a few years learning he system.
By years end he will be a lock for finals

 

[Teriyakicat]

Does that 8 weeks begin from the start of the season, or pre-season? Because as of today, I'd say the chances of him playing senior footy by Round 8 are zero.

It's 8 weeks from the day they register him on the list, AFAIK
Will screenshot the page I read and post here in a few min.

 

[Partridge]

It's 8 weeks from the day they register him on the list, AFAIK
Will screenshot the page I read and post here in a few min.

If Round 8 or thereabouts is the cutoff, they might as well put McCarthy and Menzel there straightaway which would give opportunities to the two most promising rookies.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Does that 8 weeks begin from the start of the season, or pre-season? Because as of today, I'd say the chances of him playing senior footy by Round 8 are zero.

These two pages pretty much cover it:


26.4 (a) specifies the player can't compete in the AFL competition - or State Body Competition- for 8 weeks so I'd guess it means we can't apply for him to go on the LTI until R1 of the NAB.
Afl comp would include preseason, don't you think?

 

[Teriyakicat]

If Round 8 or thereabouts is the cutoff, they might as well put McCarthy and Menzel there straightaway which would give opportunities to the two most promising rookies.

That would preclude these boys playing VFL "state body competition", and I'm pretty sure they want Menzel playing by that stage. Not sure on McCarthy.

 

[Partridge]

I can not speak for others , but I suspect we will not really know till we have played the NAB's. Who will be fit to play , who fits in the side structure , who we are playing will play a part. Historically we have always done better v Hawks with strong talls , Hawkins , Clark and Bartel would be locks if fit.
Stanley , Murdoch and Motlop probables and possibles are Walker , Kersten , Lang etc. I have no real feel how they will mesh , time will tell.

Yeah, there will be two vastly different teams. For the NAB Challenge you'd expect as many new faces as possible (same with every pre-season really). Anyone not established who is fit you'd expect to see at some point.

As for Round 1, it all depends on how much Scott's philosophy has changed. He's conservative and always opts for the experienced option. From that list of players above, for Round 1 I'd be thinking Hawkins, Bartel, Motlop and Murdoch are certainties, Clark close to, and everyone else is possible, but may not be either. There are only 22 spots.

 

[Hawkas1988]

Appreciate all the replies, one thing is for sure, you're depth in the talls is as good and deep as there is in the comp. The VFL side will benefit greatly from it and should be hard to beat this year. Arguably the best group of talls in the VFL comp if all are fit and healthy.