Which sounds like a great plan, UNTIL the VFL change the rules on matching bids and suddenly we will have to keep our 1st to match on Welsh and have nothing to offer for Petty.
You know it's coming.
Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...
- Thread starter Mutineer
- Start date
- Tagged users None
You know it's coming.
- Oct 2, 2022
- 4,379
- 5,748
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
C'mon George - all of the tears over not having enough list positions has been proven wrong, as it was always going to be. There's no point still defending it.
They obviously feel the chance of a regularly injured Hamill drastically turning his career around in the final year of his contract is zero. If he didn't have a contract, it's pretty clear he would have been delisted.
Unlike Sloane, who they wanted to re-sign.
They valued Sloane higher than Hamill, and frankly that's fine. I would have retired Sloane and I would have delisted Hamill - but I can understand why they still want some mature leadership on the list.
All of the worry about lack of list positions was just wasted energy, as it always was. Everything has gone exactly as most people suggested it would, right down to the players delisted.
- Sep 28, 2016
- 9,820
- 19,316
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
If we did pick up O'Sullivan and he looked the real deal, I'm not sure we even make the play for Petty next trade period. Especially if a midfield trade target materialised.
At that point we would have Murray back healthy, as well as Butts, O'Sullivan and Keane as key backs with support from Worrell. I'd totally be fine rolling with that.
It's why I think MFC really missed their window to cash in on Petty. Next season his trade value may be half what it was this year. This year KPD were astronomically overvalued, and I just don't see that happening twice in 2 years.
- May 16, 2015
- 13,039
- 17,447
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- WWTFC,Chelsea,Glasgow Celtic,Lech Poznan
Hope so. Hard to make a call based on 1 season though.
- Aug 30, 2021
- 15,179
- 27,731
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
And yet you keep ignoring the fact our list is full with a complete lack of flexibility. No chance to take a rookie. No chance of picking up a delisted player. No chance to pick up a fourth player who might have slid past our pick 20.
How many games Hamill miss with injury in 2023?
Of course you’re fine with what the club has decided, you have complete faith in their decisions. As for wasted energy, you spent a lot of posts trying to support their judgement….come to think of it, you do that a lot
Could be very accurate, but I suspect we have told him we are committed to bringing him to the club.
- Jul 6, 2017
- 28,623
- 38,210
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
The counter to this is if we are 'committed' to Petty next year and there is a verbal agreement in place (not saying there is but in this scenario), then I would suspect there is no chance we pick O'Sullivan this year even if available at our pick and we may trade down if Wilson is also off the board at that pick
- Apr 12, 2012
- 4,266
- 7,036
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Ricciardo, Red Sox
If Melbourne aren't contending Petty could be a crow by midseason. The extra trade period looks all but signed off.
Carn The Texan
Team Captain
On the flip side if we are half a chance at the top 8 petty would be a huge get for us. The idea of a player changing teams mid season still breaks my Australian brain though.
You still going on about Sloane.
Guess what, the club and many people here don't think a rookie in 2024 is worth more than Sloane in 2024.
You can group me and others as 'apologists' in your attempt to influence the group think to your narrow perspective - it doesn't change anything.
You keep trying to make it a debate, you're not going to convince anyone who disagrees with you (you don't present as rational about Sloane).
Look you may even be right, but honestly, the rookie isn't going to make a difference. A delisted player? You have to be joking.
Remember everyone lost their minds we didn't draft Carmichael? Who cares, he's not the difference. Who cares if he's still on a list playing VFL and Turners back at Glenelg? No one, because neither are best 22.
3 first round picks and a Cat B rookie is a great result this off season.
This has the same feel as the Gibbs trade. We weren't able to get the deal done first up, but will get it done a year later. Especially as Petty is a free agent the following year.
- Sep 20, 2014
- 1,672
- 1,535
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- dallas cowboys,chicago bulls
This is fair enough, Ogilvie has got a few wrong, but I'm not sure he's the worst, predicting the future is notoriously difficult. All we know is the earlier the pick the more chance you have of getting it right, but we haven't done that well in our early picks so that's where I agree, that's universal.
Don't forget Petty is a swing man, O'Sullivan could be as well (has been juniors). This type of flexibility could be awesome.
- Oct 2, 2022
- 4,379
- 5,748
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Yeah, I think good talk talent that can swing forward or back is REALLY valuable. Very happy to get both, if the cards fell that way
- Apr 12, 2012
- 4,266
- 7,036
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Ricciardo, Red Sox
Totally agree with this sentiment. Great for filling injury holes up forward and down back. Excess talls also allow us to play the swing men in their optimal position.
Plus with Tex reaching the end I like the idea of Petty playing forward and O'Sullivan down back, or the two of them swinging between the two positions.
- Jul 6, 2017
- 28,623
- 38,210
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
If we could have it all ,then yes..but if we are looking seriously at Petty next year, then it will cost us a chance of getting a top end mid next year so we simply have to grab a couple this year - Wilson, Demattia etc otherwise we will have the best attack and defense in the comp and still be lacking in midfield (unless we get organic growth from Rankine, Rachele & Pedlar - which we may well get!!)
CrowTownRoad
Debutant
- Nov 18, 2019
- 102
- 176
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
From the draft rumours board
In the last 5 years, the make up of the All Australian Team has been this:
Top 5 - 28 selections
6-10 - 12
11-20 - 15
21-30 - 13
31-40 - 7
Later/ Rookie - 30 (but it's over 50 to 60 picks)
In summary, a top 5 pick is historically more than twice as likely to be a champion as a pick from the next 5, which is nearly twice as likely as a pick from 11 to 30, which is twice as likely as a pick from 31 to 40, which is only a bit better than a late/ rookie/ SPPS.
I expect that the boom bust nature of late picks probably means that getting an above average player falls away quicker than this, but I am not willing to do the research.
We have 3 picks in the 11 to 30 range (after likely academy selection). If we wanted to pick up a speculative pick like Goad or Moir, we should be able to trade down and still take them. But, historically, this would give us half the chance of getting a champion compared with picking the best available in our range. In this particular draft, it feels like the drop off will be even steeper than this.
Draft tiers this year (excluding academy) look to be:
Tier 1 - Reid, Duursma, McKercher, Curtin, Sanders, Watson
Tier 2 (our 1st pick range) - Caddy, O'Sullivan, Windsor, Wilson, Leake
Tier 3 (our 2nd and 3rd pick range) - Murphy, Collard, Tholstrup, DeMattia, Hardeman, Roberts, C Edwards, Green, A Reid
Tier 4 (getting speculative) - M Edwards, Jiath, Stevens, Goad, Gothard, Moir, Hastie, Schoenmaker, Delean, Lual, Morris, Freijah, Zakostelsky, Sanchez
Our guys could rate Goad/ Moir higher than the pick available to us at 20 (likely 25ish on the night), and given Hamish's hit rate for later picks I'd back them in. If not, I feel that we would need to get a pretty good pick in next year's draft for the downgrade to make it worthwhile (or just not do it).
I wouldn't waste energy on missing out on a rookie pick this year. Sloane probably plays more (and better) games from here than our hypothetical rookie pick would (and that's potentially not saying much).
Top 5 - 28 selections
6-10 - 12
11-20 - 15
21-30 - 13
31-40 - 7
Later/ Rookie - 30 (but it's over 50 to 60 picks)
In summary, a top 5 pick is historically more than twice as likely to be a champion as a pick from the next 5, which is nearly twice as likely as a pick from 11 to 30, which is twice as likely as a pick from 31 to 40, which is only a bit better than a late/ rookie/ SPPS.
I expect that the boom bust nature of late picks probably means that getting an above average player falls away quicker than this, but I am not willing to do the research.
We have 3 picks in the 11 to 30 range (after likely academy selection). If we wanted to pick up a speculative pick like Goad or Moir, we should be able to trade down and still take them. But, historically, this would give us half the chance of getting a champion compared with picking the best available in our range. In this particular draft, it feels like the drop off will be even steeper than this.
Draft tiers this year (excluding academy) look to be:
Tier 1 - Reid, Duursma, McKercher, Curtin, Sanders, Watson
Tier 2 (our 1st pick range) - Caddy, O'Sullivan, Windsor, Wilson, Leake
Tier 3 (our 2nd and 3rd pick range) - Murphy, Collard, Tholstrup, DeMattia, Hardeman, Roberts, C Edwards, Green, A Reid
Tier 4 (getting speculative) - M Edwards, Jiath, Stevens, Goad, Gothard, Moir, Hastie, Schoenmaker, Delean, Lual, Morris, Freijah, Zakostelsky, Sanchez
Our guys could rate Goad/ Moir higher than the pick available to us at 20 (likely 25ish on the night), and given Hamish's hit rate for later picks I'd back them in. If not, I feel that we would need to get a pretty good pick in next year's draft for the downgrade to make it worthwhile (or just not do it).
I wouldn't waste energy on missing out on a rookie pick this year. Sloane probably plays more (and better) games from here than our hypothetical rookie pick would (and that's potentially not saying much).
- Aug 30, 2021
- 15,179
- 27,731
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
What I love is people who inject themselves into a discussion and ignore how it actually started.
Moystn started it by saying all those with tears about our list management, “see nothing to worry about, it all worked out”
Now I could either let a goading post like that go or I respond with how that’s his opinion well actually the clubs opinion.
Now I could have said nothing and let it go, just like you could have said nothing and let my post go. It’s how a discussion board goes.
If you don’t like my opinion I don’t give a *, it would mean I’d have to rate yours to begin with.
But I will find it interesting for all those who are happy with keeping Sloane and having no list flexibility, will they say anything if there are some decent sliders past pick 20 that we can’t have a crack at.
- Apr 12, 2012
- 4,266
- 7,036
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Ricciardo, Red Sox
Not necissarily. Reid has said we'll be looking to trade and add free agents next year so it's possible we bring in both an elite mid and KPP. Why draft an 18 year old when you could have these guys?
Free Agents
McCluggage
Hayward
Duggan (could deliver WC pick 2 with a decent offer, he's only 26)
Out of Contract
Phillipou
Pre-Free Agents
Petty
Davies-Uniake
Trade
Oliver (can see a scenario where he misses the majority of the year on personal leave and seeks a trade)
- Apr 12, 2012
- 4,266
- 7,036
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Ricciardo, Red Sox
McCluggage/Hayward (free), Phillipou (second rounder) & Petty (first rounder + steak knives) + Welsh (father son with junk picks)
Pretty good reason to trade pick 14 into next year with Freo if you ask me.
- Jul 6, 2017
- 28,623
- 38,210
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Say what?
- Aug 30, 2021
- 15,179
- 27,731
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Seems out of left field, looks like a player we could pick up after pick 20….
Similar threads
