Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

[dogs105]

I'm not sure I'd call 12 +18 (after academy) + f1(12ish) for a f1(top 2) fair. That's an awesome deal.

North have offered 2 + 19 for pick 1 this year and Melbourne offered 7 + 13 + f1(16ish). Both were knocked back.

And, the worst it would likely get would be our future pick being 10 and theirs 4. 10 + 12 + 18 for 4 isn't that bad. The Bulldogs gave up 13 + 21 + f1(11ish) for pick 4 this year.

So, if there was a 90% chance of an awesome deal and a 10% chance of an ever so slightly overs outcome . . .

Best case is us giving up 10, 14, 18 for 1. 3541 points for 3000, but still probably a good deal for a pick 1 premium. Trouble is, every other case is worse. And the downside is very large. Even if you don't think it's likely.

 

[Big Dub]

So effectively, there's a 1 in 10 chance that this turns out to be the worst trade ever made?

No, you are saying there's a 1 in 10 chance and I'm saying that's way too pessimistic (and that I'm happy to take your money at the odds you quoted).

 

[dogs105]

No, you are saying there's a 1 in 10 chance and I'm saying that's way too pessimistic (and that I'm happy to take your money at the odds you quoted).

I'm not saying one in 10. I'm saying it's possible, and that risk isn't priced into the original trade proposal. At what do you put the chances of us and WC being close on the ladder?

 

[Big Dub]

Best case is us giving up 10, 14, 18 for 1. 3541 points for 3000, but still probably a good deal for a pick 1 premium. Trouble is, every other case is worse. And the downside is very large. Even if you don't think it's likely.

Points don't reflect the actual draft capital needed to trade up, particularly to a top 2 pick.

And nobody will remember the picks we gave up if the gun mid we pick wins us a flag. Yes, it might not work and we might not win a flag. But I think there are bigger risks of it not working out if we keep taking mid teens picks.

 

[Big Dub]

I'm not saying one in 10. I'm saying it's possible, and that risk isn't priced into the original trade proposal. At what do you put the chances of us and WC being close on the ladder?

2%

At what do you put the chances that the West Coast pick won't get us access to a top prospect?

 

[dogs105]

2%

At what do you put the chances that the West Coast pick won't get us access to a top prospect?

In 2010, West Coast finished last, with 4 wins. In 2011 they finished 4th with 17 wins.

It's not likely, but it's not unheard of, and it's folly to to base a deal on the assumption it won't happen.

 

[eaglevision]

In 2022 we finished second last with 2 wins and in 2023 we finished last with 3 wins. Then we lost Shuey, Hurn and Nic Nat. Whilst I’m thoroughly, thoroughly enjoying this banter I’d like to apologise to the entire board for sending you down this deep, dark rabbit hole as of yesterday morning.

FWIW I think a very conservative approach to list management rarely wins you a flag. If Big Dub was your list manager, he might just jag you one. Goodluck in the draft, I’ve got a lot of respect for your footy club. I’ll see myself out.

 

[Crows I Am]

The point is, it might be very likely, but not guaranteed.

A 90% chance of a fair deal and 10% chance of a disaster, is not a fair deal.

There is no guarantee in anything you do in the off season. Every draft pick you take is a risk of being a fail.

Our rebuild is going well, but most would agree that we are still 1 premium mid away from being a true contender. We are unlikely to have access to the pointy end of the draft now with our own picks, so we need to either trade one in or somehow get into the top couple of picks to have the best chance to grab one.

Obviously it depends on what we would need to give up to get their F1. I said in my first post that I wouldn't want to give up our 3 first rounders this year and our F1. But something like pick 10, 20 and our F1 I would be OK with. Still leaves us one first rounder this year. I would be more than comfortable to take the risk that we won't drop down the ladder much and they won't rise up much.

It is very unlikely any of this happens anyway so I'll stop posting about it after this.

 

[Sanders]

So effectively, there's a 1 in 10 chance that this turns out to be the worst trade ever made?

Gruesome odds

 

[BACCS]

Why do mock drafts keep linking us with intercept defenders? We let Doedee go as we are already fairly stocked down there and it’s likely we can get Petty next year anyway. Just doesn’t seem a major need with Murray back by mid year too, so Keane could then potentially play more of an interceptor role with Worrell.

 

[George Kramer]

Why do mock drafts keep linking us with intercept defenders? We let Doedee go as we are already fairly stocked down there and it’s likely we can get Petty next year anyway. Just doesn’t seem a major need with Murray back by mid year too, so Keane could then potentially play more of an interceptor role with Worrell.

Because we could draft one. Will you change your mind to support the decision if we do?

 

[Sanders]

Because we could draft one. Will you change your mind to support the decision if we do?

We could redraft McAsey and he’ll think it’s a master stroke

 

[Draft Bored]

PMBangers phantom draft. I think it's a really good crack at it.

Don't mind the first two picks. Gothard not so much.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

PMBangers phantom draft. I think it's a really good crack at it.

Don't mind the first two picks. Gothard not so much.

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Actually can see this happening , not so much Gothart bit

The bid on Graham might be before taking Tholstrup

Instead of Gothard we take Goad ( or the one of other rucks )

 

[1990crow]

Actually can see this happening , not so much Gothart bit

The bid on Graham might be before taking Tholstrup

Instead of Gothard we take Goad ( or the one of other rucks )

Wilson, Tholstrup/DeMattia, Goad would be a good result.

It's not as good as Wilson and Osullivan but Connor might be surplus to needs if we get Petty next year.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Wilson, Tholstrup/DeMattia, Goad would be a good result.

It's not as good as Wilson and Osullivan but Connor might be surplus to needs if we get Petty next year.

Yep ideal scenario is O’Sullivan and Wilson even if it’s only 2 picks in end

I’d love to pinch Graham off GC - speed power size in midfield

 

[1990crow]

Yep ideal scenario is O’Sullivan and Wilson even if it’s only 2 picks in end

I’d love to pinch Graham off GC - speed power size in midfield

No reason for GC to give up Graham.

 

[Danger in Texas]

PMBangers phantom draft. I think it's a really good crack at it.

Don't mind the first two picks. Gothard not so much.

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I wouldn't have a problem with Gothard purely on talent, but probably not what we should be looking for, positionally (at that pick, anyway)

Mitch Edwards possibly sliding beyond the late 20's is wild to me, I'd snap him up like nobody's business at that third pick

 

[LoBu]

PMBangers phantom draft. I think it's a really good crack at it.

Don't mind the first two picks. Gothard not so much.

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Tholstrup more forward than midfielder, is midfielder label just thrown in?

Being a farmer, maybe he could buy into Murray and McHenry's farm, the new version of the Adelaide girlfriend or shares in the Alma?

 

[LoBu]

I wouldn't have a problem with Gothard purely on talent, but probably not what we should be looking for, positionally (at that pick, anyway)

Mitch Edwards possibly sliding beyond the late 20's is wild to me, I'd snap him up like nobody's business at that third pick

Mitch Edwards?

You mean this guy?

 

[StonesThrow]

Think a genuine small forward is definitely a need. We have Rankine and we don't want him spending 100% in the pocket.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

AFL clubs pushing for the implementation of a concussion passport​

Almost one in 10 AFL players admitted they hid a concussion last year and club recruiters fear it is happening in junior football. But a concussion passport could change everything.

The concerning concussion history of several top prospects looms as a wildcard in next week’s AFL draft as clubs push for the implementation of a concussion passport.

That passport would be activated as soon as a junior began playing full contact sport and would later allow clubs to consider the state of a player’s brain before being drafted.

“They’re probably not going to self-report because it might limit their chances of getting a job,” one club’s AFL recruiter said.

Certain No. 1 pick Harley Reid sat out five weeks after suffering a concussion in May while top-30 ruck prospect Mitch Edwards returned 16 days after his mid-season blow.

Some clubs believe Western Bulldogs-bound father-son Croft has suffered as many as seven head knocks – but were unsure how many of those resulted in concussion.

Those close to Croft are adamant he has only one concussion, from 2021.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-clubs-pushing-for-the-implementation-of-a-concussion-passport/news-story/27cb6685f92bcd00a0914025d310c5fc?amp

 

[PMBangers]

Tholstrup more forward than midfielder, is midfielder label just thrown in?

Being a farmer, maybe he could buy into Murray and McHenry's farm, the new version of the Adelaide girlfriend or shares in the Alma?

I went moreso on their roles at U18s level and I see Tholstrup as a rotation option at his peak given the contested nature of his game

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I went moreso on their roles at U18s level and I see Tholstrup as a rotation option at his peak given the contested nature of his game

Would have had him pegged as Cam Rayner forward with some relief mid minutes but must say his combine testing result re Endurance / Agility gives me some confidence he can play some decent mid minutes in time

 

[Viva la Mattner]

PMBangers phantom draft. I think it's a really good crack at it.

Don't mind the first two picks. Gothard not so much.

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Would be happy with that bar Gothard

hopefully De Mattia or Goad is on the board still , would go Moir too if both gone