NCAA 2023- NCAA Off Season News

[Dirty Bird]

A part of me wishes we just jumped straight to the end goal

Arizona, Arizona State, Utah Pac-12 ---> BigXII
Oregon, Washington Pac-12 ---> BigTen
Oregon State, Washington State Pac-12 ---> MWC
Stanford Pac-12 ---> Independent (BigWest)
Cal Pac-12 ---> Drop football (BigWest)
Duke ACC ---> BigTen
Notre Dame Independent (ACC) ---> BigTen
Miami (Fl), Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina ACC ---> SEC

**** - I didn't realise how big the ACC was. Guess they'll survive and some AAC schools (say SMU, Memphis and South Florida) could go ACC.

 

[aussiedude]

bahahahahahah
$50M?

Lol,
The Pac would never get that unless
1) You never lost USC/UCLA/Colorado (LA and Denver huge tv markets)
AND
2) You went the MAC route and played exclusively weekdays at night. Saturdays are too packed with college football to the point that Pac-12/MWC teams are either buried in the primetime slot, OR, so late, there's no East Coast viewership as they're in bed.

You MAY have pulled off 40m with a strong USC.
But 30m is more realistic.
And having now lost the LA market, 20m is probably too much in itself. I feel AppleTV is overpaying so they can get some content and grow from there. But it's an extra cost on regular appletv? It'd be the death of the conference.

If USC/UCLA never left the Pac-12 would of beat the low 40s that the Big12 got.

But i didnt say thats what the pac can get, its why teams are leaving.

 

[Dirty Bird]

expect news on Arizona in the next 24 hours and Washington in the next 72 hours.

Next dominoes would be Arizona State and Utah, followed soon by Oregon one would expect.

 

[aussiedude]

Arizona state seem like they have no idea what they are doing.
Arizona is gone.

Washington State and Oregon State are f**ked. both are in massive debts and will likely end up somewhere like the MW where they go from making $21m+ a year to 4. Which sucks, just as Oregon State turn it around the pac12 falls apart.

Cal who the f**k knows how bad it will be for them.
Stanford will survive because they have almost unlimited funds, but how much will the invest in the athletic departments beyond the min needed to keep them afloat. Where will the end up. and how/will i be able to watch them anymore.

Then next year the ACC will fall apart. after that it will be quiet for ~10 years then big names like Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, USC, Miami, Oklahoma, Alabama and a couple of others will cry about subsidizing the smaller schools and break away to form a 10-12 school alliance where like 70% if the TV money ends up.

the eventual story of the fall of the Pac12 is going to be a sad one. I wonder what it the college landscape would look like if 12 months ago the Pac12 didnt hesitate at poaching Big12 schools because they didnt want to kill a conference. now people are openly cheering for a death of the Pac-12.

We all knew the power struggle to control CFB between ESPN and Fox was going to be a painful one and brutal to teams that are small market.

This f**king sucks, i know Stanford were going to be bad this season. but its hard to care about a sport that doesnt care about fans and only cares about money. It will kill more rivalry games like the last round of realignment did. and slowly become a NFLjr/NFL lite where rivals and tradition is lost.

I have said it a few times, back when i was looking for a team to follow that my final 2 teams were Stanford and Wisconsin. am i going to be pushed towards changing teams to get my CFB fix if Stanford end up independent and who knows where they will find a broadcast partner, or will they drop down the FCS.
If Stanford get a Big10 invite ill be happy because i will know where they are going to be and how to watch them, but hollow because the Pac-12 is dead, even if it was inevitable that one of the power 5 were to be the first to die. and it was always leaning towards a power 3 within the next 5 years.

When the ACC falls apart will the Big12 want Boston college, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville and so on. Will the American merge with them or will the Big East take the basketball schools, but what happens to the football programs.

Miami, Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina will be appealing for both the SEC and Big12

 

[Dirty Bird]

That 2010 realignment was where things turned.

About the only 3 moves that made any sense was Boise State to the Mountain West (Mountain West wanting to become an AQ school and Boise State could've pushed MWC to above the Big East), Nebraska to the BigTen (BigTen wanting a conference championship game) and TCU to the BigXII (BigXII maintaining a championship game) I can tolerate.

But every other move has ruined this sport.

The question becomes however, is it Colorado's fault for destabilising the BigXII, or was it Texas' fault for thinking they were bigger than the BigXII forcing everyone else to jetison the f*** out of the league.

 

[aussiedude]

This round falls on Texas/Oklahoma for wanting out [which was started by ESPN whispering into their ear]. and Fox countered losing them by pushed the Big10 into adding USC/UCLA

 

[gaskin]

Yeah, this is on Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12. The dominoes all started falling after that.

 

[gaskin]

Things are getting crazy now. Looks like Arizona is still leaving but it seems like the PAC might just survive. Multiple journos are reporting that Oregon and Washington could stay as the monetary offer from the Big 10 is not as substantial as expected.

 

[Constantgin]

 

[Constantgin]

This could be really good viewing.

 

[Constantgin]

Offensive but funny and true

 

[AJ_2000]

Sad to see the end of the pac12. Only option would be to merge with the MWC (but they could just take on the likely 4 remaining teams).

 

[drd23]

 

[drd23]

 

[aussiedude]

Sad to see the end of the pac12. Only option would be to merge with the MWC (but they could just take on the likely 4 remaining teams).

Already talk Cal will fold the football program. Washington State and Oregon State might have no option but to go to the MW, but it might not save them going from $20m+ a year to ~$4m. and they are not big enough names to get the MW tv deal redone to get everyone more money.

WSU and OSU are going to have to make some hard cuts everywhere to pay off the debts they have because of building athletic centers to keep up with the teams that have now all left.

Stanford can survive as an independent [if they can get a TV deal]. or hope the Big10 offer them. I guess they could have a talk to Notre Dame about being independent or have them help get them into the Big10.

There was a glimmer of hope lastnight around midnight when the Pac-12 schools had an emergency meeting at 7AM PST, but soon it became clear it was not going to work and things like a merger with the ACC was being pondered by insiders. that was the moment i knew it was dead and i would wake up to read about the deathblows.

This just f**king sucks for everyone. all because of greed and TV money.
I just hope Stanford can make a decision in the next couple of weeks so i know if i will still have a team to follow or if i flip to Wisconsin who were the team i almost went with all those years ago.

 

[aussiedude]

I think the saddest thing is that in 12 months the same will happen to the ACC. and we also have fans of smaller Big12 teams cheering the death of the Pac-12. and in 10 years or so those will be the teams left behind when 3 becomes 2, and the Big10 and SEC pick over the ruins of the Big12 and leave most of them to fall further behind.

 

[aussiedude]

 

[gaskin]

He says the game was built on regionality but regionality in a sense killed the Pac 12. Ultimately, there isn't the interest in CFB on the west coast that there is in the south and mid west. That is where the TV money has gone because that is where the vast majority of viewers are.

 

[aussiedude]

This is what we are heading into. with a few changes to the schools listed.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Cmon Stanford
Go Indy.
That's the last domino to fall for osu wazzu to come to the mwc

 

[gaskin]

Cmon Stanford
Go Indy.
That's the last domino to fall for osu wazzu to come to the mwc

There was a tiny bit of chatter a couple of months ago that they might do that if the conference collapsed. They'll go to the Big 10 though.

 

[aussiedude]

Cmon Stanford
Go Indy.
That's the last domino to fall for osu wazzu to come to the mwc

If anything i think OSU/WSU invite the MW to whats left of the Pac. get 9 members of the MW to vote and dissolve the conference and set up a new TV deal. surely that way you could get more than 4m per school and have the Pac-12 AQ stuff

 

[AJ_2000]

If anything i think OSU/WSU invite the MW to whats left of the Pac. get 9 members of the MW to vote and dissolve the conference and set up a new TV deal. surely that way you could get more than 4m per school and have the Pac-12 AQ stuff

Would seem to be the logical approach.... But very little of the time is logic followed in NCAA land

 

[Dirty Bird]

If anything i think OSU/WSU invite the MW to whats left of the Pac. get 9 members of the MW to vote and dissolve the conference and set up a new TV deal. surely that way you could get more than 4m per school and have the Pac-12 AQ stuff

Why would anyone in the MWC leave?

We'd have to pay a $17M payout, (And to enter next year and ensure Pac-12 can even compete as a conference, $34M)

This isn't leaving a $3.75M league for $20M.

It's leaving a $3.75M league to enter a new league just to renegotiate a a $5-10M deal. It'd take 4-7 years just to pay off the payout.

Absolutely not worth it.

Plus, how long is aq even around for? Dont the top 6 conference champs go to the playoff?

Look, if you had a tv deal lined up where one knew what they were to expect going in, sure. One might jump. But it's too much of an unknown.

And lets be honest. Stanford is big enough they would be better off going independent, and probably a good cultural fit (in some ways) to go to the WCC for everything else. They'd get more with their brand than holding together the Pac or joining the mWC.

And from what I'm reading, most MWC schools have minimal interest in joining any conference where Cal is on a pedastal. And that seems what it'd be like joining the Pac-4. If Cal wasn't standing there in the pac. Sure, you'd have a shot at drawing everyone else in. But Cal?

Pac will be dead by the end of the month.

Stanford will go indy (Either WCC, Big West, or even by some murmours, Ivy League for olympic sports). Oregon State and Washington State will go either MWC 90% chance) or even AAC (10% chance), and Cal will either go MWC for everything, or drop football and go BigWest or WCC for everything else.

 

[aussiedude]

if enough vote to exit the MW no one needs to buyout.