Preview 2023 Rd 18 Carlton vs Port Adelaide Saturday July 15 4:35PM @ Marvel Stadium

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Team is in …


IN: Tom De Koning
OUT: Matthew Kennedy (knee), Lewis Young

After starting last weekend as sub, George Hewett has been elevated into the 22






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AFL team news: De Koning named for return

Tom De Koning will return for Carlton this Saturday.
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Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Jordan BoydMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Walsh
Half-forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Forwards:David CuninghamHarry McKayJack Martin
Followers:Tom De KoningAdam CerraSam Docherty
Interchange:Alex CincottaMatthew CottrellGeorge Hewett
Jack Silvagni
Emergencies:Paddy DowOllie HollandsCaleb Marchbank
Jesse Motlop
 
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Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Satuday, 15/7/2023

Marvel Stadium

​
Form line:

Carlton: L-L-L-Bye-W-W-W

We've looked underdone and very average for most of the season, but we've come out of the bye with three wins; against Hawthorn (16th), against GC before their slide when they were in decent form, and fresh off having smashed Fremantle in a game they had to win to stay in touch away. Having said that, we're 1-3 at Marvel this year, losing to the Saints, the Lions and to the WB there; we've not been winning games of footy there, so next Saturday makes for a good time to turn this around.

Port Adelaide: W-W-W-Bye-W-W

Port have gone from strength to strength this season, being one of the teams to beat. They've lost only to Collingwood and to Adelaide all season. However, there's a bit of a sneaky aspect to many of their results this year: while they've trounced teams they should be trouncing (beating the Eagles by 40 points, before the Weagles started plumbing the depths of despair; Nth by 70; Hawks by 55) they've won 5 games by under 10 points. They win games of football, but they don't blast sides away; they hold them at arm's length rather than destroying them. It's also fairly noteworthy where they've played what quality opposition they have played; Lions got beat in round 1 by 55 points in Adelaide, (when discussing blowouts, I try to understate round 1 results as they're not as credible for rest of season prospects or form) Collingwood beat them in Melbourne, and got the Dees in Adelaide when the wheels hadn't fallen off Melbourne.

They're a good side, but there's potentially a bit of frailty there.

Head to Head

2022
Carlton by 3
2021
Power by 28
Power by 95
2020
Power by 3

Last year, we smashed them in the first half only to barely hold on when they swashbuckled their way to parity in the match. In 2021, we sucked, and by end of year we'd given up.

2020 was the Robbie Grey game. Let us move on.

Key Stats

Port are a low possession side, but where that comes out is through their kicking; where other sides would share it around Port kick the ball, their kick to handball ratio being almost .75 handpasses for every kick. They also are not a super high tackling team, with a 51 tackle average this season; however, the interesting thing about this statistic is that they still sit at a positive differential here. They lay more tackles than their opponent most of the time.

Port at present have Lycett injured, so in all likelihood Sam Hayes and Jeremy Finlayson will form their ruck division. Port have not been particularly strong this year around the ball in terms of clearances (sitting at a 1.7 clearance differential) and part of that could be due to the fact that they lose hitouts most weeks (-9.8 differential). Bear in mind, they've lost two games though, so it hasn't seemed to matter all that much.

Hayes is a strong tackler but still very much a young ruck; it depends on which ruck plays for us as to how we go. Young if he provides a similar amount of tackling presence and marking ability around the ground is more than servicable; Jack should not be rucking when Hayes is in there. Finlayson is along a similar mold to Jack as a ruckman; he's much more dangerous ahead of the ball than around it.

We by contrast are a high disposal side, sitting at a +27.8 disposal differential. We are much happier to handball the ball - with kicking effectively meeting out handpassing rate - and we average slightly more marks per game. Their clearance differential is higher than ours but only really by a single clearance each week. What is interesting is that while we average more tackles per match (59.7) we sit at a negative differential; our opposition lay more tackles than we do. Both sides produce turnovers at similar rates and turn the ball over at roughly the same rate.

Analysis

Port have had a bit of a changing of the guard this season. Where players like Boak, Wines, Grey have made them great in the past, their rise and performances this year have been a product of unit cohesion and younger players rising to the fore. Zac Butters - beyond being a player I've wanted since his debut season, as in "name your price territory" - is having an excellent season, Connor Rozee is playing more midfield and smashing it, Horne-Francis has been an excellent inclusion, providing grunt and skill to go with it. It's a bit interesting the comparison between him and Will Ashcroft, because both players have provided similar drive to their respective teams.

Wines is having a good year, with Dan Houston is providing a lot of drive from the wing. You can throw a rope around the next group of perhaps 10 or so players; all averaging around 14-18 disposals, all playing roles and forming necessary parts to the whole. They play a team oriented game, and this is borne out in how Travis Boak has been used this year as more an outside presence than the full time in/out mid. Port seem to specialize in producing low possession high impact mids.

That changing of the guard has also been apparent up forward. Finlayson, Marshall and Dixon are willing their goalkicking in that order. Powel-Pepper sits at fourth there, continuing his strong form as a forward from last season, and Willie Rioli and Connor Rozee sit close behind. Their forward setup is quite diverse; they don't rely on purely talls or smalls, and they still get goals from midfield via Rozee, Butters, Horne-Francis and Houston.

Down back, it is my opinion that they're gettable. They still are running with the trio of Aliir, Mackenzie and Clurey, with Burton riding shotgun; of that group, Aliir is tallest at 194. They rely on teamwork to succeed, but that it is a potential weakness is borne out statistically; Port are inside the bottom 8 for points against. In their loss to Adelaide, Thilthorpe kicked 5; a bigger tall can potentially expose their keys for lack of height.

Other considerations

I don't like Port Adelaide very much.

Verdict

We need to win this match to keep our season alive. They do not need it in the same way; the game is at Marvel, and their record there this season is better than ours is. The grand final is not at Marvel; there is no reason for them to treat this or us any differently than they would other games. They will arrive thinking this game is just a match of football, albeit one that might be a bit more challenging than it looked before the bye.

For us, this match constitutes resurrection. It is a remedy for the wound that is the first half of this season. It is both a reason to believe and a tearing at the soul for those who doubt. Blessed are those who have not seen but still believe; but the beauty of AFL is that we get to see just how much it means to those who walk out there with that monogram on the front.

We win this one, we blow it wide open. We've not just beat those round us, we've beaten one of the best and we're on track for a bottom of the 8 finish. Win this game, we're a victory against one of Collingwood or Melbourne away from September.

The players - despite how it went - gave a s**t last year, when they knew they had to win to make finals. That the results were snatched away so cruelly in consecutive weeks should not take that effort away from them. There is every chance they walk out there this week and fight and tear and claw to keep themselves alive.

Last time I wrote one of these, I couldn't back us. We were a team of almosts, a team that chased near success. This time, I cannot bring myself to pick Port ******* Adelaide in a game against my team.

Against Fremantle, we were everything we were last year and more. The sum was more than the parts. Let's belt these pretenders back down the highway; let's show them what we think of Magpies.

Carlton by 10 points.

​
 
Last edited:
In: Dow, Plowman, Binns (sub)
Out: Hewett, McGovern, Kennedy.

Opportunity to play the kids in a game that arguably we can lose and still make the 8. Win however, and we will be in 8 after the west coast game.
 

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marcmurphy3 said:
Hewett looked pretty average in the quarter and a half he played.
Click to expand...

He is the only player in the team that hasn't got the memo that we don't handball backwards anymore.

Last week -27 metres gained, all handballs. This week +12 metres gained, 5 backwards handballs and 1 kick.

He's not a sub. Play him a full game or not at all, my preference is for the latter.
 
Arr0w said:
Not sure who gets up

If Gov is out, Young goes back or bring in S Durdin

If Kennedy out, Hewett in

TDK or Pitto in If S Durdin doesn’t come in

So...

Out Gov, Kennedy

In Hewett, TDK or Pitto

Young to the backline
Click to expand...
Please no young to defence the defence has never looked better since he’s been up the ground Marchy in for Gov thanks
 

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My guess is that Mitch will be o.k. game over gave us the chance to put him on ice and put ice on him straight away.

The choice looks to be Hewett or Dow in for Kennedy. The other to be sub.

No other changes.
 
That corky Gov copped looked horrible and he could barely move let alone walk. Given his injury history you’d think it’s one week minimum, but badcorks can last 2-4 weeks, hopefully it’s not on the extreme end.

I think Young has received the message loud and clear regarding his lack of urgency and looks to be heading in the right direction, so I’m with arrow with moving him back to replace Gov. Power also play two very tall forwards so this makes sense.

Other changes would be Hewitt for Kennedy and TDK for Gov.

Hewitt is a quality mid, but needs touch and confidence and the sub role does not suit him at all, so keen to see him get a full game. Dow or Caroll to sub.
 
Dow in for Kennedy
Tdk for Young
Cowan in if McGovern doesn't get up
I'll be annoyed if Hewett comes in for Kennedy
As I think well be to slow
Binns deserves a game to
 
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