Expansion A third Queensland team by 2020?

[Matchu]

Act now or AFL will dominate

...

He believed the AFL had pumped millions into the area and was committed to establishing a franchise in the region by 2020.

According to Keeffe the AFL has spent more money on its Gold Coast Suns academy in nearby Mackay than the QRL has for all of its development programs this year.

The Suns have academies from Rockhampton to Cape York in the north.

“People might say `oh, he’s throwing up the AFL bogeyman again’ — I am not saying this to scare anyone,” Keeffe said.

“(But) if you read their statements and their policies which I have, they say there will be an AFL side in regional Queensland by 2020 and they are well down the road.

“They use words like `dominate’. I don’t like using those sorts of words — I think we should co-exist.

“But I don’t think they want to co-exist with anyone.”

Obviously this guy has an agenda being the head of the Central Queensland NRL bid but is there any truth to what he's saying? Cairns is the obvious choice for a regional Queensland team. Their social club (Cazaly's) is very wealthy and the population of the Far North is growing at a pretty quick rate. Aussie rules also happens to have a strong following in Cairns when compared to other northern areas like Townsville.

Demetriou has said in the past that the next league expansion would include Tasmania and either North Queensland or a third WA team. This article seems to suggest that most involved in the process believe a north Queensland team will enter the AFL by 2030.

So, do you think it's on the cards? Remember, we're talking about a region that contains nearly a million people.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Don't know about other people but i'm sick of expansion. I liked it at 16 teams.

 

[Cmarsh]

This Keefe guy made a somewhat contradictory statement. Says he wants to "coexist" with the AFL and fears the AFL does not want to coexist, but is worried the AFL will dominate the region unless his bid is successful. Sounds like he is actually the one who doesn't want to coexist.

BTW the area might contain a million people, but Central Queensland is a huge place and very spread out.

 

[Gibbke]

No. I live up here, and Cairns is a little footy oasis in the middle of a huge frigging desert, not a thriving hub as it's made out to be be. The threat this guy alludes to is in drafting and recruitment, not in a team presence...

 

[Matchu]

No. I live up here, and Cairns is a little footy oasis in the middle of a huge frigging desert, not a thriving hub as it's made out to be be. The threat this guy alludes to is in drafting and recruitment, not in a team presence...

There must be some future prospects otherwise the AFL wouldn't bother playing a home and away match there every year. I was reading an article the other day that said Cairns is expected to have a bigger population than Hobart in the next ten year. If that's true then you have to at least look at the market for the future.

 

[juss]

Dont see the point, GC and Brisbane arent exactly booming I cant see the demand for a third team there.

Atleast WA is footy mad and could probably support a third team based in Bunbury. Tassie I reckon would have the whole state jump on too given they dont have any major professional sporting team.

Not sure tge NT is practical logistically, especially not out of Darwin. Way too hot, humid and wet all year round. The standard of footy due to the conditions there would be horrible and no one would want to move/be drafted there.

 

[Augustine]

I think the AFL is just heavily focused on increasing the talent pool after the introduction of two new teams. Central and North Queensland has a large population and we want to get as many good players out of there as possible. I doubt it very much that they're thinking about expanding again for quite some time.

 

[Andre]

The talent is already spread too thin with 18 teams. With time as GC and GWS (in theory) bring in more youngsters from their catchment areas it will improve on now, but going to 19 or 20 teams now would make some of the spectacles of the last few years even more common.

The only way it'd work is with a new QLD/TAS/NT/3rd WA side replacing one of the Victorian sides. With Etihad soon to revert to AFL control the shitty stadium deals constraining some Vic. clubs should recede, so that's not going to happen.

Given that you'd want at least 15 years for a few years of GWS/GC kids to come through from AusKick kids at 5/6/7 through to drafting age before expanding beyond 18 teams, to keep the talent from being spread too thin, I'd put at 2025 at the bare minimum before going 19+ teams. 2030 being more realistic.

 

[TN25]

Surely another QLD team is not a priority. If the AFL want to expand, Western Australia, Tasmania or Northern Territory would be more deserving.

 

[blue harvest]

So, do you think it's on the cards? Remember, we're talking about a region that contains nearly a million people.

But that region is spread over 1,000km. It would be like counting Sydney and Adelaide as part of the Melbourne region.

 

[Masto]

No, just no. We have too many teams as it is.

 

[Marlin01]

I don't understand the desire for a third AFL team in WA that pops up whenever expansion talk is raised. I can only see it diluting support for the existing WA teams and elite talent across the comp, rather than increasing overall support for the game of Australian Rules in WA. Perhaps once the new stadium is built and being sold out by members, then a case could be made, but that seems more 2030.

 

[RodneyMaynard]

I find it highly unlikely that this guy;

a) saw an official AFL policy that plans for an AFL team in RQ by 2020; and
b) said policy contained the word 'dominate'

I think a team in Regional Queensland by 2020(ish) depends on the manner in which Tassie gets a team. If Tassie gets a relocated North (please don't kill me, just a hypothetical), I think it becomes more likely, pitting RQ against WA3, New Zealand, NT and maybe Regional NSW (Newcastle, CC, or Woolloongong). But if Tassie gets a new team, suddenly these other teams are all competing for one spot rather than 2.

But in terms of the logistics of a regional queensland team (let's for the sake of argument say NQ rather than CQ), I think it's doable. You could look at the Green Bay Packers model for inspiration. The town the team itself plays out of is relatively small, but its supporter catchment area is massive. If the NQ Crocs (Green and Blue uniform btw) played out of Cairns, the team could arrange for coachs to bring fans to and from the games from across the region. They could play a few games in Townsville, McKay etc. Their strength wouldn't be the number of fans at one particular gme, but the number of fans spread across the region.

Try to minimise the number of home games early in the season to avoid the wet-season, and don't play games at night. It's certainly do-able, the question really just remains is a RQ team in the best interest of the competition and thesport over-all, or would a WA3/NZ/NT/RNSW team provide greater benefit?

 

[Matchu]

But that region is spread over 1,000km. It would be like counting Sydney and Adelaide as part of the Melbourne region.

I hear you but my understanding is that people up there are more willing to travel for major events when compared to average Melbournian or Sydneysider.

 

[Gibbke]

There must be some future prospects otherwise the AFL wouldn't bother playing a home and away match there every year. I was reading an article the other day that said Cairns is expected to have a bigger population than Hobart in the next ten year. If that's true then you have to at least look at the market for the future.

It's a zone for recruitment, sure, but that's it. Plenty of rich expats up here, so there is no problem footing the bill for a one-off game donated by Vic teams who know they won't break even if they play the Suns in their home state. But if Cairns beat Hobart in the future, it's still a small place with a small AFL fanbase in a RL state which puts all AFL broadcasts on 7Mate (and sometimes not at all). They'd gain nothing from tv, because this is a regional area - that there is the reason why there is no Tasmanian team right now, and the stark difference between "footy wasteland centred but viable because of metro tv AFL side GWS" and anyone else who actually has a local league. And outside Cairns, there's bugger all. Townsville is nearly 50% bigger than Cairns, and just down the road in Qld terms, but there's nothing happening there, totally swamped by the Cowboys. The Taipans and Crocs (NBL) get news coverage - AFL Cairns gets nothing. Here near Tully, halfway between the both of them, there is absolutely no Australian footy played, no goalposts on cricket ovals, no teams, nothing, until you get to the big cities - a 340km gap...which is roughly the distance between Hobart and Burnie, the biggest drive Tasmanian football teams need to make. Mackay is waaaay further down the road from Townsville...you just wouldn't bother...

Not turning this into yet another Tasmanian AFL team thread, but logic says that if Hobart and Tasmania are considered regional footy, non-viable for expansion, and only good for development as a drafting source, despite being a 100% fully committed and rabid Australia Football state, then what hope Far North Queensland...?

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Absolutely no need for a third AFL team in Qld. What is necessary however, is that the AFL pump tonnes of money and resources into grass roots Australian football in Qld. That's where the future lies and that's where the long term value is for the AFL.

 

[Furn2]

No new teams until we have sides in Mumbai and Johannesburg.

 

[L_W_P]

I personally think there should only be 2 new teams - Tasmania and New Zealand.

Looking at things in a cold, business point of view:

Relocate North Melbourne to Hobart.
Merge Melbourne and St Kilda into the Melbourne Saints.
Start NZ team based in Wellington.

Keeps the league at 18 teams and balances the Vic teams out a little.

Biggest issue here though is the number of Aussie kids getting drafted to an NZ team that would want to come home. Different city/state is one thing, different country is a whole new mental hurdle for an 18yo to overcome.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Not sure tge NT is practical logistically, especially not out of Darwin. Way too hot, humid and wet all year round. The standard of footy due to the conditions there would be horrible and no one would want to move/be drafted there.

Actually, it's only wet in Darwin during the build-up and monsoon seasons which happens between oct -feb. When the southern states are having their winter, the NT has what the locals refer to as "The Dry Season". In this time it rarely rains, humidity is low, and temps stay high 20's low thirties. You'll even see locals in jumpers and jeans in the dry season because it feels cool to them, but the tourists in shorts and T's because they feel warm. The weather is perfect though. The Dry happens during the AFL season. But the weather is not the reason why a team wouldn't work in the NT, it has to with population and disposable income.

*****

On the topic - I don't see a third team in Qld working. They'd be better off doing a team in Tassie and a third team in WA. But like others, I think if the AFL keep pushing this agenda without letting new clubs really establish themselves then it will blow up in their faces. The AFL is over reaching IMO, and when these clubs start hitting the wall and the AFL find themselves spending millions just to keep them viable, this will have a flow on effect to all the other clubs too. No more expansion for at least another 10 years, Gil.

 

[Simba Moyo]

There really shouldn't be a North Queensland team in the AFL in the current climate. The talent pool is too thin and even if there were a need for another team, Tasmania of even a third WA team should be first in line. Brisbane and Gold Coast need to really establish themselves in Queensland before a third team could even be considered.

Also, I find it funny how they say they want to "co-exist" while whenever there is something positive to mention in the media about the two Queensland teams it is suffocated by the pro-rugby propaganda yet are happy to throw us to the wolves with any and all shortcomings.

 

[AliceCat]

Cairn's population is projected to smash through 400k by 2050..with a population largely fuelled by expects from the southern states. With the Gold Coast in mind it will be like watching history repeating itself.

So Nth QLD is obviously on the AFL's radar but surely it won't have a team before 2040. By this time WA3 and Tassie(in one form or another) will already be well established. In one respect i can't wait for the comp to get to 22 teams or so..will mean every teams plays each other once..will finally have a fair draw! If you had of suggested that we would have an 18 teams and a truly national comp 30yrs ago you would have been laughed outa town. No doubt the AFL will look very different in 30yrs.

Plus with the number of NSW/ACT(9) & QLD(3) players coming though the draft is only going to increase thus the argument against expansion of 'there isn't the talent out there' is going to start to look a little shaky! Early reports are that NSW in particular is going to have another killer draft next yr.

 

[AliceCat]

If we're to get to a 24 team comp, with 14 outside Victoria, we would finally have an uncompromised draw.

2025
WA3 & TAS - The WA gov isn't spending 1B on a new stadium for only 2 AFL clubs. Pop growth is strong and their economy is booming. WCE and FREO will soon have a waiting list again after the new stadium is complete. Tassie needs/wants/deserves a team. Surely the AFL will grant the state their wish. Adding these two teams present no risk and may not add a whole heap to the pie but will consolidate core markets.

2040
NthQLD & Canberra - All AFL clubs will be established and GWS will have left Canberra. The ACTs population will be hitting 600k, it will be time for another calculated expansion gamble. Both centres are growing fast, with Cairns in particular fuelled by southern migration.

2055
Darwin & Newcastle - ATM it may sound a tad ambition but Darwin pop will be around 300k by then and the place is footy mad. The territories boom is only going to continue..and our mining boom hasn't yet begun! The talent is already up there. The number of players that have left AFL clubs prematurely to return up north is staggering…just check out the list of the NT Thunder. Climate is no issue if we are talking seriously about Carins…will just mean a lot of night games. Newcastle as of today has the largest population without an AFL team and for good reason. It will be the AFL's final frontier..the place is too large for the AFL to ignore forever but will no doubt be a long hard slog like GWS.

 

[Demonheart]

I personally think there should only be 2 new teams - Tasmania and New Zealand.

Looking at things in a cold, business point of view:

Relocate North Melbourne to Hobart.
Merge Melbourne and St Kilda into the Melbourne Saints.
Start NZ team based in Wellington.

Keeps the league at 18 teams and balances the Vic teams out a little.

Biggest issue here though is the number of Aussie kids getting drafted to an NZ team that would want to come home. Different city/state is one thing, different country is a whole new mental hurdle for an 18yo to overcome.

If that was to occur then I would stop following AFL and go to the local leagues. Most of Melbourne supporters I know would do the same thing.
Saints and doggies would be a better fit, and we're also financially stronger than both clubs, we also get bigger crowds

 

[jim boy]

Base a team in Cairns and call it the Northern Australia, they play three matches out of Cairns and two each out of McKay, Townsville, Darwin and Alice. Guarantee them sole access to those markets for thirty years. By playing only ba couple of matches out of each location, you amplify the interest in each of those markets so crowds will always be healthy, you also bring new markets into the AFL fold.

 

[AliceCat]

Base a team in Cairns and call it the Northern Australia, they play three matches out of Cairns and two each out of McKay, Townsville, Darwin and Alice. Guarantee them sole access to those markets for thirty years. By playing only ba couple of matches out of each location, you amplify the interest in each of those markets so crowds will always be healthy, you also bring new markets into the AFL fold.

Agree that a team based out of Cairns could play a couple games in Townsville and one in Mackay but theres no way Territorian's would get behind a QLD team. That would be like having GWS playing games home games in Brisbane.

Best fit for the Territory ATM is too have a strong team in the NEAFL, which it has, and a couple AFL games each yr. In 40yrs time we will hopefully be ready for our own team.