AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions

[Jones2ByrneJones]

1 Port Adelaide
2 GC
3 Hawthorn
4 Melbourne
5 Essendon
6 North Melbourne
7 Collingwood
8 Richmond

9 Sydney
10 Adelaide
11 WB
12 Fremantle
13 West Coast
14 Brisbane
15 Carlton
16 Geelong
17 GWS
18 St Kilda

(randomized this list in excel)

 

[Hawkinspired]

Fremantle
Hawthorn
Essendon
Sydney
Geelong
Richmond
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast

Port Adelaide
Collingwood
North Melbourne
West Coast
Carlton
Melbourne
Adelaide
Brisbane
GWS
St Kilda

 

[Holy Rioli]

2014 AFL Ladder
1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Richmond
4. Sydney
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. Collingwood

9. Gold Coast
10. Carlton
11. Adelaide
12. Port Adelaide
13. West Coast
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Melbourne
17. St Kilda
18. GWS


Week 1

Fremantle vs Sydney (Freo 12)
Hawthorn vs Richmond (Tigers 38 in the rain)
N.Melb vs Collingwood (N.Melb 22)
Geelong vs Essendon (P.Chapman kicks winner Ess by 5)

Week 2

Sydney vs N.Melb (Syd 22)
Hawthorn vs Essendon (Hawt 15)

Week 3

Fremantle vs Hawthorn (Hawks 4)
Richmond vs Sydney (Tigers 22)

GF

Richmond vs Hawks (Tigers 8)

Premier - Richmond F.C
Runner Up - Hawthorn
Norm Smith - B.Ellis
Coleman - J. Reiwoldt
Brownlow - T.Cotchin
Rising Star - C.Salem (RFC)

The only thing that is missing is the minor premiership...

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Only a few kicks kept north from top 4 this year...

Haha yer if you look at it that way it's a reasonable conclusion but it's impossible to predict they will be a top 4 team next season because they missed out by a few kicks this year

 

[Spoken4]

Freo make a GF and suddenly they are the best thing going around. (Hint, you lost that game. Quite badly in fact)

You call Freo losing a GF by 15 points when they actually had more shots on goal a quite bad loss? To use a quote from Ross Lyon - you're quite brilliant, Tigerman.

 

[vonn]

You call Freo losing a GF by 15 points when they actually had more shots on goal a quite bad loss? To use a quote from Ross Lyon - you're quite brilliant, Tigerman.

I've seen a few of your posts re GF, would you say its fair to say that you think the only reason you lost was lack of conversion and composure?

 

[Spoken4]

I've seen a few of your posts re GF, would you say its fair to say that you think the only reason you lost was lack of conversion and composure?

Absolutely. Should have kicked at least four goals in the first quarter and put the game away in the third given their midfield dominance.

From 14:20 in the fourth quarter, Hawthorn was held scoreless and Freo kicked 2.4 and had one shot on goal that went out on the full. Freo's five shots on goal in the last seven minutes were all gettable. If three of them had been goals, result would have been a Freo victory.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Yer but Spoken4 once a goal is kicked the ball goes back to the center the whole game changes again it's not going to stay on the same course as you kicked those behinds.

 

[Tiger_man322]

You call Freo losing a GF by 15 points when they actually had more shots on goal a quite bad loss? To use a quote from Ross Lyon - you're quite brilliant, Tigerman.

Could you even call a majority of them shots on goal? Most of them were so ridiculously bad that they wouldn't even be considered decent kicks by under 10's.
Cue classic "It was a lot of pressure for them"
These are professionals.
Thanks Ross! Means a lot coming from someone who has made it to the big dance four times now, with a success rate of 0%.

 

[Tiger_man322]

Absolutely. Should have kicked at least four goals in the first quarter and put the game away in the third given their midfield dominance.

From 14:20 in the fourth quarter, Hawthorn was held scoreless and Freo kicked 2.4 and had one shot on goal that went out on the full. Freo's five shots on goal in the last seven minutes were all gettable. If three of them had been goals, result would have been a Freo victory.

Would've, could've, should've.

 

[toddles88]

I honestly believe that 2014 will be one of the closest seasons in recent memory. The battle for top 4 and 8 spots will be immense!

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. Richmond

5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. Collingwood

9. Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Port Adelaide
12. West Coast
13. Gold Coast
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. GWS
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda

 

[_RT_]

1. Fremantle - finished runner up this year and added to their list already without losing much.
2. Sydney - add Franklin to their list and while they lost a little bit the other way should be god enough for top 2.
3. North - lost 7 games by 2 goals or less this year. Win those game this year and they should climb.
4. Richmond - finished half a game outside top 4 last year with a harder draw.
5. Hawthorn - losing Franklin will hurt them and I expect them to drop away a little
6. Geelong - showed this year that their kids are good enough, however the loss of a fair bit of experience may see them slide as well.
7. Carlton - went out and added some quality to their list but not enough IMO to make up for a tough draw.
8. Essendon - Bomber is a great coach and their list was good enough to have them 3 wins clear of 9th before the sanctions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Collingwood - Losing a heap of experience and bringing in more kids should see the Pies slide a little, however it should be short term pain for long term gain.
10. Port - reckon the other sides will figure Port out and they won't be able to surprise sides like they did this year.
11. Gold Coast - did nothing in terms of trading/free agent signings, so while they will improve again, not sure it will be a massive jump.
12. Adelaide - made some changes but not sure it's enough to make much of a difference from where they finished last year.
13. West Coast - new coach & new gameplan which means it will take some time to adjust. I expect Simpson to have a good look at the list this year before making changes next year.
14. Bulldogs - Will improve again but not sure if it's enough to over take many of the sides that were clear of them this season.
15. GWS - will be best of the also rans IMO. The addition of experienced players like Mumford Shaw Hunt & possibly Corey will help greatly.
16. Melbourne - Roos will make a difference to the Dees and they should win more than the 2 games they got this year. Still a heap of work to do to turn them around though and will not get out of bottom 4.
17. Brisbane - Leppa is going to wonder what he has got himself into. Lions lost a heap of kids that were supposed to be part of their future and will be replacing them with younger kids again. Expect 2014 to be a year of pain for the Lions
18. Saints - an absolute rabble at the moment. If you can get good money for them for the spoon then get on now. Even if they get Chocco Williams as coach they will still struggle as it seems that no-one is happy to be there. At least the early picks will help in the rebuild.

 

[indy nile]

My very biased ladder

Hawthorn
North
Richmond
Freo
Geelong
Port
Sydney
West Coast
Western Bulldogs (Miss the finals by 1 win)
Adelaide
Carlton
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Essendon
Brisbane
St Kilda
GWS
Melbourne

 

[etsal1]

1. Fremantle - finished runner up this year and added to their list already without losing much.
2. Sydney - add Franklin to their list and while they lost a little bit the other way should be god enough for top 2.
3. North - lost 7 games by 2 goals or less this year. Win those game this year and they should climb.
4. Richmond - finished half a game outside top 4 last year with a harder draw.
5. Hawthorn - losing Franklin will hurt them and I expect them to drop away a little
6. Geelong - showed this year that their kids are good enough, however the loss of a fair bit of experience may see them slide as well.
7. Carlton - went out and added some quality to their list but not enough IMO to make up for a tough draw.
8. Essendon - Bomber is a great coach and their list was good enough to have them 3 wins clear of 9th before the sanctions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Collingwood - Losing a heap of experience and bringing in more kids should see the Pies slide a little, however it should be short term pain for long term gain.
10. Port - reckon the other sides will figure Port out and they won't be able to surprise sides like they did this year.
11. Gold Coast - did nothing in terms of trading/free agent signings, so while they will improve again, not sure it will be a massive jump.
12. Adelaide - made some changes but not sure it's enough to make much of a difference from where they finished last year.
13. West Coast - new coach & new gameplan which means it will take some time to adjust. I expect Simpson to have a good look at the list this year before making changes next year.
14. Bulldogs - Will improve again but not sure if it's enough to over take many of the sides that were clear of them this season.
15. GWS - will be best of the also rans IMO. The addition of experienced players like Mumford Shaw Hunt & possibly Corey will help greatly.
16. Melbourne - Roos will make a difference to the Dees and they should win more than the 2 games they got this year. Still a heap of work to do to turn them around though and will not get out of bottom 4.
17. Brisbane - Leppa is going to wonder what he has got himself into. Lions lost a heap of kids that were supposed to be part of their future and will be replacing them with younger kids again. Expect 2014 to be a year of pain for the Lions
18. Saints - an absolute rabble at the moment. If you can get good money for them for the spoon then get on now. Even if they get Chocco Williams as coach they will still struggle as it seems that no-one is happy to be there. At least the early picks will help in the rebuild.

Not saying I disagree with your prediction for Carlton finishing 7th. But, could you explain to me how our draw is tougher than this year?

 

[I Lost My Keays]

1. Hawthorn
2. Freo
3. Sydney
4. North
5. Richmond
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide
8. Collingwood
9. Essendon
10. Port
11. Carlton
12. Gold Coast
13. West Coast
14. WB
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. St Kilda
18. GWS

 

[_RT_]

Not saying I disagree with your prediction for Carlton finishing 7th. But, could you explain to me how our draw is tougher than this year?

It's based on who you guys play as well as the quality of your list.


In 2014 you face Essendon, Port, Geelong & Collingwood who were top 8 sides this year before the Bombers penalty was handed down. I expect all those sides to be thereabouts again. On top of that I don't see Carlton winning against Freo in Perth, Sydney in Sydney or Hawthorn.

With regards the list I feel that your KPP depth isn't as good as teams around you so unless your midfielders can win a heap more possession and generally control the game I can see you guys struggling to win enough games especially the 50-50 games where quality KPPs can make a real difference.

 

[etsal1]

It's based on who you guys play as well as the quality of your list.


In 2014 you face Essendon, Port, Geelong & Collingwood who were top 8 sides this year before the Bombers penalty was handed down. I expect all those sides to be thereabouts again. On top of that I don't see Carlton winning against Freo in Perth, Sydney in Sydney or Hawthorn.

With regards the list I feel that your KPP depth isn't as good as teams around you so unless your midfielders can win a heap more possession and generally control the game I can see you guys struggling to win enough games especially the 50-50 games where quality KPPs can make a real difference.

Only interested in your comment about the draw.
You are correct in saying we face Essendon, Port, Geelong & Collingwood twice. All of which (except for Geelong) we played twice this year. So there's really no difference, given we played Richmond twice to make up for the extra Geelong game next year.
So all I am asking is how next year's draw is definitively tougher than this years.

 

[_RT_]

Only interested in your comment about the draw.
You are correct in saying we face Essendon, Port, Geelong & Collingwood twice. All of which (except for Geelong) we played twice this year. So there's really no difference, given we played Richmond twice to make up for the extra Geelong game next year.
So all I am asking is how next year's draw is definitively tougher than this years.

Carlton this year finished the H&A season with the 9th best record in the comp, 2 games behind 8th. Because of the sanctions against Essendon, you were gifted a finals appearance and through that were lucky or unlucky enough to get through to a top 6 finish. IMO Carltons list wasn't good enough to finish with a top 6 position and therefore instead of getting a draw that Richmond or North got, you got the draw that Richmond should have got. Therefore, IMO, your draw is a lot tougher than what it should have been as you're now stuck with double up games against 4 top 8 quality sides from this year, rather than the 2 that Richmond gets.

 

[mike91]

Could you even call a majority of them shots on goal? Most of them were so ridiculously bad that they wouldn't even be considered decent kicks by under 10's.
Cue classic "It was a lot of pressure for them"
These are professionals.
Thanks Ross! Means a lot coming from someone who has made it to the big dance four times now, with a success rate of 0%.

Yeah, because it's Ross Lyon's fault for inaccurate kicking. Turn it up you knowledgeless twat. Should we talk about Richmond? Finally makes the finals and what happened? Did you lose to the 9th placed team?

 

[etsal1]

Carlton this year finished the H&A season with the 9th best record in the comp, 2 games behind 8th. Because of the sanctions against Essendon, you were gifted a finals appearance and through that were lucky or unlucky enough to get through to a top 6 finish. IMO Carltons list wasn't good enough to finish with a top 6 position and therefore instead of getting a draw that Richmond or North got, you got the draw that Richmond should have got. Therefore, IMO, your draw is a lot tougher than what it should have been as you're now stuck with double up games against 4 top 8 quality sides from this year, rather than the 2 that Richmond gets.

That still doesn't address the question. You stated our tough draw will hinder us. Our draw is no different to this year.

 

[_RT_]

That still doesn't address the question. You stated our tough draw will hinder us. Our draw is no different to this year.

Yes it does, heading into 2013 your draw included only 1 double up against a finals side from the previous year in Collingwood. Heading into 2014 your draw includes 4 double ups against top 8 sides from the previous season i.e. 2013. Therefore IMO it's a tougher draw than what this years draw was, based on ladder positions of the previous year.

 

[etsal1]

Yes it does, heading into 2013 your draw included only 1 double up against a finals side from the previous year in Collingwood. Heading into 2014 your draw includes 4 double ups against top 8 sides from the previous season i.e. 2013. Therefore IMO it's a tougher draw than what this years draw was, based on ladder positions of the previous year.

And this is exactly why you can't definitively judge a team's draw when it is announced. Last year when we got Port as our double up, you would have expected it to be 2 relatively easy games given their 2012 season. However, it turned out our double up against Port turned into a double up against a top 8 team.

You can't judge a team's draw based on the previous years result with full certainty. It may be convenient to say we only had to play against a 2012 finalist twice (Collingwood) one time, but reality is we ended up playing 3 top 8 teams twice this year (Coll, Port and Rich). And ended up winning 3/6 matches.

I don't care where a team finishes the previous year, I care about how they perform the year we actually play them. Whose to say one of the teams we play twice that played finals this year, won't play finals next year and therefore make our draw easier? And whose to say a team that didn't make finals this year, that Richmond have to play twice next year won't make finals?

 

[Tiger_man322]

Yeah, because it's Ross Lyon's fault for inaccurate kicking. Turn it up you knowledgeless twat. Should we talk about Richmond? Finally makes the finals and what happened? Did you lose to the 9th placed team?

I think Ross should be to blame for failing to prepare his team.
GF Replay and the scores are almost the same as this year.
The only thing the two have in common are the coach and the spud in the backline.

 

[_RT_]

And this is exactly why you can't definitively judge a team's draw when it is announced. Last year when we got Port as our double up, you would have expected it to be 2 relatively easy games given their 2012 season. However, it turned out our double up against Port turned into a double up against a top 8 team.

You can't judge a team's draw based on the previous years result with full certainty. It may be convenient to say we only had to play against a 2012 finalist twice (Collingwood) one time, but reality is we ended up playing 3 top 8 teams twice this year (Coll, Port and Rich).

Agree to disagree rather than going around in circles. As it stands Carltons draw IMO is tough, it may end up easier as teams may fall away. Fair enough.

 

[kreuze_missile]

1. Hawthorn
2. Essendon
3. Sydney
4. Carlton
5. Fremantle
6. Geelong
7. Richmond
8. North Melbourne

9. Adelaide
10. Gold Coast
11. Port Adelaide
12. Collingwood
13. West Coast
14. Melbourne
15. Westen Bulldogs
16. Brisbane
17. St Kilda
18. GWS