AFL - first week of finals
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TurboBreuster
Cancelled
4.5U Coll -27.5 @1.91 (Sportingbet)
2.7U Coll 1H -13.5 @1.90 (Sportingbet)
3U WCE Behinds>Goals @2.70 (Centrebet)
I missed out on some of the earlier odds that others posted from Sportingbet, however I still think that their prices on the Pies are good. I am also back on the Pies opponents B>G bandwagon. They managed this in 6 out of 7 games at the MCG through the middle of the season, which is when they were in their best form. I see no reason as to why the Pies won't amp up the pressure whilst also heavily restricting the Eagles from getting many set shots away from the boundary line.
2.7U Coll 1H -13.5 @1.90 (Sportingbet)
3U WCE Behinds>Goals @2.70 (Centrebet)
I missed out on some of the earlier odds that others posted from Sportingbet, however I still think that their prices on the Pies are good. I am also back on the Pies opponents B>G bandwagon. They managed this in 6 out of 7 games at the MCG through the middle of the season, which is when they were in their best form. I see no reason as to why the Pies won't amp up the pressure whilst also heavily restricting the Eagles from getting many set shots away from the boundary line.
I tend to agree, 4+ goals really isn't that much and it will be the first finals for so many WC players and we will be ready to make a statement and to make one early.
Subaru Impreza
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- #30
West Coast are massive overs at $5.00. I have them around 3.00 or thereabouts. My view on this game is to Lay Collingwood @ 1.25 or Back West Coast @ 5.00 , and look to trade out during the match. My only doubtful question mark is the Eagles may get a bit tired (they have a 1 day less advantage in terms of recovery), played in heavy conditions last week, and also the Flight factor over to Melbourne. But crowd support should not be a big factor, West Coast are by far the best supported interstate team in Melbourne.
West Coast have a habit of performing when it matters come finals time. Been saying it all year but I truly believe West coast can win the flag this year. Bump this thread up in 4 weeks time!
Good luck boys on your tips!
West Coast have a habit of performing when it matters come finals time. Been saying it all year but I truly believe West coast can win the flag this year. Bump this thread up in 4 weeks time!
Good luck boys on your tips!
Subaru Impreza
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- #31
1/3 rd of the team has played in the 2006 Grand Final? I dont know what your talking about there.
This Eagles team is match hardened and Collingwood have ''everything to lose''. All the pressure is on the Black and White army. Eagles can treat this as a swing at all costs game, if they lose there is no shame. If they win, its a bonus.
$1.27 was available yesterday 
And the other 2/3? He did say "first final for so many".
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I agree 100%. WCE are a live chance, good value $15 for prem.
happy punter
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- Mar 29, 2009
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Game total to be UNDER in the Swans/Saints game. Guessing it will be set somewhere in the region of 160 points
2 units Geelong @ $1.72 - they will just win. Hawks might have won a few in a row but Carlton's the only team of note in that lot. Their wins at the MCG are Melb, Rich, St Kilda, Freo, Essendon, Melbourne, Port, Bulldogs. Their losses are Geel, Geel, Coll. Pretty clear delineation there.
1 unit Essendon @ $3.15 - not sold on the Blues and whilst I think they should be favourites I've got it scored a lot closer
Also a $20 free bet on Geelong under 39.5, Collingwood over 39.5, St Kilda under 39.5 @ $12.331
1 unit Essendon @ $3.15 - not sold on the Blues and whilst I think they should be favourites I've got it scored a lot closer
Also a $20 free bet on Geelong under 39.5, Collingwood over 39.5, St Kilda under 39.5 @ $12.331
I think it will be mid 150s, which will make it somewhat close imo.
will be 155ish like last time.
the last match should have gone over if Sydney could kick, plenty of shots on goal.
finals intensity should keep it 140-160 though
the last match should have gone over if Sydney could kick, plenty of shots on goal.
finals intensity should keep it 140-160 though
jamesmac23
Rookie
hey guys dont know if this is the right place to post but ive figured out i can get $2.17 for either geel haw or wce to win the premiership.
i dont fancy the chances of those out of the top 4.
therefore only danger is the pies where i believe their price is unders and should be around the $2-$2.20 mark.
interested in your thoughts
i dont fancy the chances of those out of the top 4.
therefore only danger is the pies where i believe their price is unders and should be around the $2-$2.20 mark.
interested in your thoughts
So the only danger is the top team who has lost 2 games all year...don't see a flaw in that plan as yet.
I assume the $2.17 is using Betfair because I don't think you can get close to that anywhere else, due to paying the margin on each team. Assuming that's what you want, there's nothing wrong with the bet in such a saturated market.
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- #45
Backed Pies/Cats/Blues multi H-H ~ $3
I see this as arguably the last week to get anything better than even money for H-H multis.
If Hawks and Eagles lose, they will end up being short priced favs in W2.
In W3 I would expect Pies and Cats to be short priced favs again.
Looking at taking the underdogs bar Eagles at the line this weekend as a small insurance.
I see this as arguably the last week to get anything better than even money for H-H multis.
If Hawks and Eagles lose, they will end up being short priced favs in W2.
In W3 I would expect Pies and Cats to be short priced favs again.
Looking at taking the underdogs bar Eagles at the line this weekend as a small insurance.
You will get longer on than $2.17 on whoever Collingwood's opponent is on grand final day
- Banned
- #47
You will get longer on than $2.17 on whoever Collingwood's opponent is on grand final day
With the caveat that the Pies dont have major injuries!
Once the Pies make the GF, the odds for the other team will be > $2.17 guaranteed almost.
If it is a Pies-Cats GF, you would think the Pies would be ~$1.60
Cats $2.20
Depending on the ease in which they both reached the last day.
Caveat? You guys are making up words to **** with me now
I think the Pies will be under that, more like $1.50. Don't forget they are going to have to beat Geelong or Hawthorn in a prelim while the winner of the Gee/Haw game gets the far easier match to get into the GF. I think $1.50 may even be a bit generous.
I think the Pies will be under that, more like $1.50. Don't forget they are going to have to beat Geelong or Hawthorn in a prelim while the winner of the Gee/Haw game gets the far easier match to get into the GF. I think $1.50 may even be a bit generous.
- Banned
- #49
Caveat? You guys are making up words to **** with me now
I think the Pies will be under that, more like $1.50. Don't forget they are going to have to beat Geelong or Hawthorn in a prelim while the winner of the Gee/Haw game gets the far easier match to get into the GF. I think $1.50 may even be a bit generous.
I just think if they get the cats in the GF their price will be somewhere from $1.40 to $1.60
Having a tough bruising prelim could spell trouble for the Pies?!
Whereas the Hawks/Cats would arguably have a smoother run.
I guess time will tell.
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