asanque
Premium Platinum
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/sports-bettor-billy-walters-winning-streak-13-01-2011/
Edit: A good story to fuel the dream
Edit: A good story to fuel the dream
Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?
- Thread starter BallerO
- Start date
- Tagged users None
It must be hard to model when you've taken mushrooms. Not sure how you would keep a straight face for the photos.
Kynge of Begrem
Norm Smith Medallist
- Banned
- #230
Are you winning? That's the only "reward" that means anything. In 2014, across all sports, are you winning?
We've generated 2,500 plays in 7 sports since Feb 2013 at 53.6% ATS and ~3% ROI.
terminators
All Australian
Time is absolutely arbitrary. What happened if I had 10% of all my plays in 2014? Can I say how much I've made just in the last month if we're playing with arbitrary time periods?
We're still in negative territory in 2014, on the back of a stellar 2013. Overall, 2500 plays at 53.6% ATS and ~3% ROI is fine with me.
terminators
All Australian
Out of interest, how much time do you put into this each week? You mentioned the workload was heavy
Most of my waking hours. Continuously improving on models, and model research and development requires continuous commitment.
time might be arbitrary in the sense of whether you have the "right" model or not, but its absolutely not once you turn tout and start selling yearly packages etc
- Banned
- #238
Time isn't arbitrary at all. A method that worked in 1960 might not work now. Obviously a decent sample size is required in order to give a good understanding of whether or not a method is working. A Z score also does this.
What's the Z score of your 2014 bets?
Well what are we supposed to do about it? If someone signs up for a bad day/weekend/month when variance does what variance will always do, we have to deal with the variance ourselves to our own BR, and so do our clients. There's no such thing as returns without risk, if someone doesn't want to accept that, don't buy it.
Do you make the stats clear as to the 2014 returns when you sign up (i.e. full disclosure) or do you go the footystar_ route of marketing only the stats that make you look the best?
I mean, who's to say that 2013 isn't the outlier and 2014 is the norm?
terminators
All Australian
Cheers for that. To be honest, if you're spending 14 hours a day for something that's returned a negative investment through 2014 the model's got a way to go.
Especially if someone can work at a real job all day, check sportspunter and poke around with some BF trading at night while watching 360 and in total spend less than an hour each day and make 25K in 12 months. No sign up fees, just do it yourself
Good luck though, hope it works out.
Every single play is listed by whatever time period you want to search for. Main market sides and totals on every sport we cover is listed in a result database. Make sure you filter for only sides and totals, as we don't do/provide for anything else. If there was no line on a game (ie: pick em'), then those results might also be in the H2H area.
Well that's the risk my own group takes, that's the risk I'm trying to mitigate during most of my waking hours, and that's the risk you need to take when you sign up. Again, if someone does not want to take that risk, don't buy it.
Yeah agreed, I think we have a long way to go. We've bitten off 7 sports and 14 markets, sides and totals. That's a lot of work. However if you think 7 months with negative returns is abnormal, you haven't been around risk long enough.
Anything that's worth tracking made by Jon Lowe costs a handsome sum. He's great at AFL sides (not so much totals), whilst his other big paid model (tennis) is probably dropping away in advantage.
If he thinks he can go from $1,000 USD to $2,500 USD for a season AFL sub without garnering competition and basically still being a monopoly on credible AFL advice, he is sorely mistaken. We will undercut his price, his release time and take closing line value from him. I'm guessing there's people with subs out there from him for AFL; tell him I said that.
Good luck Brett. Margins in sportsbetting are relatively small. I believe Sportspunter has very good results and, if people are prepared to pay for it, good luck to him.
Which means are we comparing? You're also committing type 1 error chopping up periods using a z-score test. I had this exact discussion a few months ago with someone that was misapplying statistical testing.
A summary of the scenario I gave to them:
1. An infamous scam artist handicapper comes to you and asks you to track his plays. He says he's changed now, and has built models that have worked.
You agree to track him.
2. He goes 80-20 ATS on 100 plays. A binomial test shows that the probability of being a 'true' handicapper beyond 52.34% is FAR above any p-value threshold.
3. What do you do? The p-value is telling you he's changed his spots. But given your prior knowledge, is this right? Can a probability be quantified?
I'll leave that for you to mull over.
100% agree.
- Banned
- #248
So you didn't answer my question as to what your Z score for 2014 is?
- Banned
- #250
Given the price you took, how many wins did the market expect you to have, and how many did you actually have?
