Betting restrictions and limits for constant winners?

[Duritz]

And as to your scenario: if you answer my question (which was asked first) I'll answer yours.

 

[Nothing]

Well what are we supposed to do about it? If someone signs up for a bad day/weekend/month when variance does what variance will always do, we have to deal with the variance ourselves to our own BR, and so do our clients. There's no such thing as returns without risk, if someone doesn't want to accept that, don't buy it.

The beauty about the internet is that it remembers what you don't.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/my-official-betting-thread.957863/page-13#post-25006671

Once I have an official record of 55%+ over a large sample, i'm gone. I'm not here to waste my time with armchair experts. I have no reason to post plays to tout. I have no intention of touting, ever.

I want to show you something you and your little posse of haters will never achieve. Then I'm going to walk.

Never hit 55% here. Haven't hit with your model. You're a charlatan and a liar, yet you keep coming back for more.

 

[brett128]

Given the price you took, how many wins did the market expect you to have, and how many did you actually have?

How do you define how many the wins the market expects you to have? Do you mean by price (remember I don't bet into money lines)

IE: 1/$1.91 = 0.5234

Or by my own internal expectation?

 

[brett128]

Looks like you've got a solid base of stats / analytical knowledge, am I right here?


If I pay sportspunter $2500 for an AFL season, and outlay $2K pw (50K for the year) history says I can expect an 18.5% ROI. $9,250 less cost of subscription so $6,750 profit. Based on last 5 years results.

Not sure what your subscription cost is but based on your 3% ROI since Feb 2013 my 50K would return $1,500 LESS the cost of your subscription.

Seems clear which one is more profitable to me.

Tell me Sportpunter's results over all sports, and compare like for like. If you want to compare AFL, 55.50% ATS on 422 plays since Feb 2013.

 

[Duritz]

How do you define how many the wins the market expects you to have? Do you mean by price (remember I don't bet into money lines)

IE: 1/$1.91 = 0.5234

Or by my own internal expectation?

By price taken.

Edit: So, yes, 1/1.91. Or, multiply your number of line bets by 0.5234, that's your expected number of winners, then tell me how many actual winners.

 

[terminators]

7% ROI on 422 AFL sides and totals bets since Feb 2013 (when we went public). Sub cost at the moment is around ~ $400 AUD.

Cheers.

So sp would net me $6,750 and your site $3,100.

Thanks

 

[Nothing]

Cheers.

So sp would net me $6,750 and your site $3,100.

Thanks

Has SP had a losing year? I note that Billy (form the vid above) has never had a losing year. It must be a real dent to the morale if you went a whole year without a win.

 

[brett128]

By 2 years I meant actively posting on a daily basis. I've been getting tagged into crap for 2 years without responding. And I'm about to leave. Then you can read back on it all again in your ample free time.

 

[brett128]

By price taken.

Edit: So, yes, 1/1.91. Or, multiply your number of line bets by 0.5234, that's your expected number of winners, then tell me how many actual winners.

Expected wins in 2014: 595 wins

Actual ATS wins in 2014: 591 wins


The answer to my scenario Duritz was that you needed to incorporate the z-test with a prior Bayes' distribution. The z-test becomes your likelihood function, and you derive a posterior distribution that formally quantifies the probability

So a common statistical test that gives you p-values in a vacuum without incorporating prior knowledge can be orders of magnitude wrong. I know you're a horse racing handicapper, so think of using Bayesian updating with par times, you might find differences in your estimations.

I'm off.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Hi Brett, best of luck mate

 

[Spads]

What becomes quickly recognizable is that all seven plays that moved against us went a cumulative 0-7 ATS. It doesn’t mean that all bets that move against us will lose, but it does help to exhibit the clear relationships between the market’s collective intelligence, line movement and value.

What a pathetic sample size for statistical genius to use to tout.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

We've generated 2,500 plays in 7 sports since Feb 2013 at 53.6% ATS and ~3% ROI.

Genuine question, does that mean a profit of 3% over 18 months? ie 2% per annum?

 

[terminators]

Genuine question, does that mean a profit of 3% over 18 months? ie 2% per annum?

Yep, but obviously different to bank interest because the money gets turned over multiple times. 10K could potentially be rolled 50 times during a year so the ROI would be 2% of 500K

 

[Piss Poor]

This thread makes me sad, Over the year I reckon TAB would love me as a customer and I'm not even close to getting a ban as I can't seem to tip a winning multi. I've lost more then I've won although Ive come extremely close about 5-6 times on heavy paying returns that lose on the last leg. Been very close but unlucky this year.

 

[Keystone agony]

This thread makes me sad, Over the year I reckon TAB would love me as a customer and I'm not even close to getting a ban as I can't seem to tip a winning multi. I've lost more then I've won although Ive come extremely close about 5-6 times on heavy paying returns that lose on the last leg. Been very close but unlucky this year.

Hasnt been a year for multis and i think it will stay that way for quite some time. AFL multis may just about be dead in regards to SU and ATS.

Wont surprise me if i get limited soon at a few agencies especially Lux, maybe sportsbet (however do they limit that easily).

Ive been raising my unit sizes heavily the past few weeks and i dont think theyd really like it TBH.

Again a small raise this week.

Still have some big potential payouts to come:
0.5U Bontempelli RS, Buddy coleman, J.Selwood Brownlow, Hawks GF win @95 (Hopefully in a position to have the opportunity to hedge if the hawks just make the GF i probably will if against Sydney.

4.5U Melb most losses @8.00 (I cant see them beating West Coast at Subi who can still make the 8 or North in the last round playing for a home final).

 

[Anundsjo]

On the weekend I rang Centrebet to place a bet on Fremantle v Hawthorn seeing as I can't bet online with them. I asked to have 500 bucks on Freo. The girl said just wait whilst I refer you to a trader... she came back saying ok XXXX you can have $50 on that option'. I laughed and asked her why there was such a pathetic betting limit on a big game. She spoke to a trader and came back to me with 'you're account is such and such profit with a 15% ROI, so our traders are managing their risk' or something laughable like that. So I asked if I could have 500 bucks on Hawthorn instead, again she referred the bet to a trader and again came back saying I could have $50 on it.

WTF is that? They don't trust their own odds setting ability to the point that they wouldn't let me bet on either option!!!

 

[Jugada]

Hasnt been a year for multis and i think it will stay that way for quite some time. AFL multis may just about be dead in regards to SU and ATS.

How is this year different to any other year?

 

[Keystone agony]

How is this year different to any other year?

I dont know. Havnt been heavily involved in multis much until this year. However there seem to be many more upsets this year than I can remember in the past.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I dont know. Havnt been heavily involved in multis much until this year. However there seem to be many more upsets this year than I can remember in the past.

Tell me about it, the 9 leg AFL margin multi hasn't gone off this year.

 

[iluvparis]

I dont know. Havnt been heavily involved in multis much until this year. However there seem to be many more upsets this year than I can remember in the past.

Hasn't been heavily involved for multi's - just knows it hasn't been a year for them

 

[Keystone agony]

Hasn't been heavily involved for multi's - just knows it hasn't been a year for them

Heavily involved this year a bit last year

 

[iluvparis]

Heavily involved this year a bit last year

Solid FAIL from me.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Hands down best thread on this board

 

[nooblet]

god that brett128 was a moron, he lost 97% of his "bankroll" in a week because he didn't understand how to size bets in a sane way.

but he calls himself a statistical genius.

 

[Lensen]

Limited on betfair was the best bit