Brexit - The UK referendum on leaving the EU - Reneging, reshmeging!

[The_Reaper]

Why do you think Merkel accepted all the refugees?

Because she didn't expect there would be as many.

Truth be told Germany shouldn't have too many issues due to the EU creating a major incentive for young Poles, Greeks etc to move to Germany

 

[MaddAdam]

Because she didn't expect there would be as many.

Truth be told Germany shouldn't have too many issues due to the EU creating a major incentive for young Poles, Greeks etc to move to Germany

They knew exactly how many were coming. Its also a strategic move in the long war against the salafists. Proves that "their people" prefer the West to the Caliphate.

 

[medusala]

Interesting. Will sort the wheat from the quislings.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...nishes-shadow-cabinet-reshuffle-politics-live

Ministers 'to get a free vote in EU referendum'
According to the BBC, David Cameron will announce in his Commons statement this afternoon that ministers will be allowed a free vote in the EU referendum. Collective responsibility will be suspended, meaning ministers won’t have to support the government position (which we presume will be that Britain should stay in a reformed EU.)

 

[Smeg Head]

Why do you think Merkel accepted all the refugees?

Its extremely good for the German economy. They have an aging population and a huge manufacturing sector that relies on a lot of low paid (by Aus standards) workers as far as I recall.

 

[apparentlydead]

Its extremely good for the German economy. They have an aging population and a huge manufacturing sector that relies on a lot of low paid (by Aus standards) workers as far as I recall.

Give this man a biscuit.

I wonder what would happen if we still had a manufacturing industry?

 

[The Punter]

apparentlydead

Wouldn't that be predicated on having a large, lowly-paid workforce?

 

[apparentlydead]

apparentlydead

Wouldn't that be predicated on having a large, lowly-paid workforce?

I'm not sure that lowly paid is the correct term. Sufficiently paid may be better. At least, one would hope so. Country's with a large manufacturing base need people who are prepared to accept this.

Germany and Japan need their manufacturing industries to survive, however their aging demographics and highly educated younger generations leave them with no-one to do the 'dirty' work. They're now in the position of pretty much taking what they can to fill the labour gap.

The Japanese immigration rules have been quietly loosened under Abe and many, many unskilled South East Asians are flocking there to 'clean the toilets' etc.

Just like how the mass European migration to Australia after WW2 drove the development of the Australian economy and gave manufacturing and construction the required 'grunt' labour.

Sadly, but understandably, those European refugees are now dead or retired and their families are better educated, more affluent and not particularly interested in getting their hands dirty for a lower wage.

Hence we saw unions screwing over manufacturing companies for ridiculously high wages because people simply wouldn't work for lower wages anymore, (coupled of course with our booming cost of living and general affluence), and our manufacturing industries could not compete internationally and died.

We had a wave of immigration of sorts with the Vietnamese, who were initially prepared to do anything to get ahead...but they didn't look quite 'Australian' enough for your average punter, so any hope of them revitalising, or even saving, manufacturing was quashed by good old xenophobia.

I do wonder however, if we still had a decent manufacturing base today if the government would be a little more 'welcoming' to our Middle Eastern/Muslim brothers and sisters?

 

[MaddAdam]

Interesting. Will sort the wheat from the quislings.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...nishes-shadow-cabinet-reshuffle-politics-live

Ministers 'to get a free vote in EU referendum'
According to the BBC, David Cameron will announce in his Commons statement this afternoon that ministers will be allowed a free vote in the EU referendum. Collective responsibility will be suspended, meaning ministers won’t have to support the government position (which we presume will be that Britain should stay in a reformed EU.)

Cameron kind of has to do that or the Tories would literally split I reckon.

 

[MaddAdam]

I'm not sure that lowly paid is the correct term. Sufficiently paid may be better. At least, one would hope so. Country's with a large manufacturing base need people who are prepared to accept this.

Germany and Japan need their manufacturing industries to survive, however their aging demographics and highly educated younger generations leave them with no-one to do the 'dirty' work. They're now in the position of pretty much taking what they can to fill the labour gap.

The Japanese immigration rules have been quietly loosened under Abe and many, many unskilled South East Asians are flocking there to 'clean the toilets' etc.

Just like how the mass European migration to Australia after WW2 drove the development of the Australian economy and gave manufacturing and construction the required 'grunt' labour.

Sadly, but understandably, those European refugees are now dead or retired and their families are better educated, more affluent and not particularly interested in getting their hands dirty for a lower wage.

Hence we saw unions screwing over manufacturing companies for ridiculously high wages because people simply wouldn't work for lower wages anymore, (coupled of course with our booming cost of living and general affluence), and our manufacturing industries could not compete internationally and died.

We had a wave of immigration of sorts with the Vietnamese, who were initially prepared to do anything to get ahead...but they didn't look quite 'Australian' enough for your average punter, so any hope of them revitalising, or even saving, manufacturing was quashed by good old xenophobia.

I do wonder however, if we still had a decent manufacturing base today if the government would be a little more 'welcoming' to our Middle Eastern/Muslim brothers and sisters?

We have solved the problem by the magnificent virtous circle of selling education and visas. The Chinese and Indian students then do all the work "normal" Aussies won't.

 

[medusala]

Cameron kind of has to do that or the Tories would literally split I reckon.

Yep, the last two intakes supposedly very anti EU as are most constituencies. You can see how few Tories actually support staying by duds like Heseltine and Ken Clarke getting wheeled out for comment. Gideon is backing the wrong horse, how anyone ever thought he was a political genius was beyond me. Disco's negotiations are on a par with Wayne Swan trying to solve Fermat's last theorem.

 

[MaddAdam]

Yep, the last two intakes supposedly very anti EU as are most constituencies. You can see how few Tories actually support staying by duds like Heseltine and Ken Clarke getting wheeled out for comment. Gideon is backing the wrong horse, how anyone ever thought he was a political genius was beyond me. Disco's negotiations are on a par with Wayne Swan trying to solve Fermat's last theorem.

Oh yeah, I am very confident they'll vote to leave.

Interestingly, there's apparently a fair few Scottish Labour types who are also LEAVE, which is causing some issues for the party.

 

[MaddAdam]

Yep, the last two intakes supposedly very anti EU as are most constituencies. You can see how few Tories actually support staying by duds like Heseltine and Ken Clarke getting wheeled out for comment. Gideon is backing the wrong horse, how anyone ever thought he was a political genius was beyond me. Disco's negotiations are on a par with Wayne Swan trying to solve Fermat's last theorem.

Heseltine and Clarke, I mean jeez, these are blokes who had to check under their cars for Provo bombs the last time they were relevant.

 

[MaddAdam]

Because she didn't expect there would be as many.

Truth be told Germany shouldn't have too many issues due to the EU creating a major incentive for young Poles, Greeks etc to move to Germany

Apart from the fact that Poles and Greeks despise the Germans and haven't forgiven them for the events of 1933 - 45.

Hence the UK and previous to the depression (localised) Ireland being far more popular with the Poles and Greeks in terms of internal EU migration. Also, a lot of young Europeans go to those countries to improve their English. Given English is now the international lingua franca for business, that's another key "pull" factor Germany doesn't have.

 

[MaddAdam]

Its extremely good for the German economy. They have an aging population and a huge manufacturing sector that relies on a lot of low paid (by Aus standards) workers as far as I recall.

Dunno about5 low wages per se. The Germans have the "mittelstadt" system.

This is obviously written by someone who doesn't have English as their first language, or is a translation, but it describes it pretty well.

http://en.interaffairs.ru/editors/358-mittelstadt-the-german-economic-miracle.html

 

[MaddAdam]

Yep, the last two intakes supposedly very anti EU as are most constituencies. You can see how few Tories actually support staying by duds like Heseltine and Ken Clarke getting wheeled out for comment. Gideon is backing the wrong horse, how anyone ever thought he was a political genius was beyond me. Disco's negotiations are on a par with Wayne Swan trying to solve Fermat's last theorem.

LOLZ

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...eaving_EU_would_be_a_betrayal_of_our_history/

 

[Smeg Head]

Dunno about5 low wages per se. The Germans have the "mittelstadt" system.

This is obviously written by someone who doesn't have English as their first language, or is a translation, but it describes it pretty well.

http://en.interaffairs.ru/editors/358-mittelstadt-the-german-economic-miracle.html

Had a quick read, seems like its sensible in spreading your risks to have multiple customers no matter the field. Obviously the economies of scale also suit them well at those sizes.

 

[medusala]

LOLZ

Gordon Brown. Had less to offer than Edward II. Doesn't show his face much south of the border. Not hard to see why. As popular as ebola.

 

[MaddAdam]

Gordon Brown. Had less to offer than Edward II. Doesn't show his face much south of the border. Not hard to see why. As popular as ebola.

Not wildly popular north of it either, as the SNP vote at both Holyrood and Westminster shows.

This is the "stay" campaign's main problem. Who is their figurehead that commands respect?

Rightly or wrongly - I can imagine you're not a huge fan - Alistair Darling played that role beautifully for the NO (Project Fear) campaign in the Scottish vote.

But who is plausible on Europe UK wide?

What's your view anyway? As in, which side wins?

I'm very much of the view that the LEAVE side will win.

 

[medusala]

Not wildly popular north of it either, as the SNP vote at both Holyrood and Westminster shows.

This is the "stay" campaign's main problem. Who is their figurehead that commands respect?

Rightly or wrongly - I can imagine you're not a huge fan - Alistair Darling played that role beautifully for the NO (Project Fear) campaign in the Scottish vote.

But who is plausible on Europe UK wide?

What's your view anyway? As in, which side wins?

I'm very much of the view that the LEAVE side will win.

Darling is actually supposedly quite liked in business circles down here. He comes across as quite calm and articulate. Not helpful that he is associated with an A grade useless campaigner. Alan Johnson might be a half decent choice.

Stuart Rose is hardly a brilliant choice for the stay side but who has leave got? Big business IMO will through huge cash towards STAY and probably the unions too.

I think it will be bloody close. Apparently big division by age ie young to vote stay, older people to leave (and as we know, they are far more likely to vote)

The mass refugee issue could well win it for leave. Mass immigration is very unpopular amongst the working class up north and I cant see them caring what some two bob communist from Islington leading the labour party thinks anyway.

Boris leads LEAVE, then I think it will get up. Otherwise not sure.

 

[MaddAdam]

Darling is actually supposedly quite liked in business circles down here. He comes across as quite calm and articulate. Not helpful that he is associated with an A grade useless campaigner. Alan Johnson might be a half decent choice.

Stuart Rose is hardly a brilliant choice for the stay side but who has leave got? Big business IMO will through huge cash towards STAY and probably the unions too.

I think it will be bloody close. Apparently big division by age ie young to vote stay, older people to leave (and as we know, they are far more likely to vote)

The mass refugee issue could well win it for leave. Mass immigration is very unpopular amongst the working class up north and I cant see them caring what some two bob communist from Islington leading the labour party thinks anyway.

Boris leads LEAVE, then I think it will get up. Otherwise not sure.

Yep, good analysis. Darling has that manner where even if you oppose his party you can acknowledge him as a smart and worthy individual.

Agreed business throws the cash, but what exactly is it going to support?

I agree the refugee thing could well swing it. All the predictions are this summer will see even bigger flows than last year. The vote looks likely to happen as that will be peaking.

Saw on analysis where a LEAVE type said that as well as being their biggest asset, the refugee thing is also a possibly fatal risk - they can't let the campaign be seen as UKIP like, or racist. This blokes view was they talk about immigration as little as possible - that argument is, as you say, already won. Just let nature take its course.

Doubt Boris leads LEAVE, he wouldn't risk his future like that. But if he comes out in support it might be enough.

 

[Todman]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3331359/Most-Britons-want-leave-EU.html

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More than half of people support Britain leaving the EU in the wake of the migration crisis and the terror



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3331359/Most-Britons-want-leave-EU.html#ixzz3weftBfYK
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[medusala]

Saw on analysis where a LEAVE type said that as well as being their biggest asset, the refugee thing is also a possibly fatal risk - they can't let the campaign be seen as UKIP like, or racist. This blokes view was they talk about immigration as little as possible - that argument is, as you say, already won. Just let nature take its course.

Leave will win (if it wins) because of immigration, the white working class hate its effect on their wages and some ethnic communities aren't happy that their ability to get relatives in has been curtailed because of the EU freedom of movement. Far harder for Australians to stay here long term than it was five years ago. The ANZACS spilled a huge amount of blood and we get treated worse than those who fought against the Poms. Indefensible, just indicative of what a spineless, non entity Cameron is. He apparently has been running around Europe telling them all he will campaign to stay in. Poor mans Chamberlain. Boy George has gone very quiet of late as has Boris.

One big thing for LEAVE is that those who support it are older and more likely to vote. Not sure whether the pollsters adjust their raw data for that (as they do for general elections).

Agreed business throws the cash, but what exactly is it going to support?

Britain gets lion share of inward investment in EU from people like Nissan (its plant in Sunderland makes more cars than the entire Italian car industry) and those foreigners want to keep the same access as now and also for many of them get the cheap labour source. Also most of the City is run by foreign banks.

Its a bit like unfair dismissal and pro union legislation, big business can deal with it via hr departments and / or pass on the costs. Small and medium businesses cant (which is similarly why they are far more anti EU than big business)

 

[FPPF]

The German population demographic is aging badly. Japan-like. And the rest of Europe is a financial shambles.

I used to think the EU was a good idea, but now think England would be crazy to saddle themselves with that albatross.

Most of the western world's population is ageing rapidly and birth rates in decline.
Any boosts or increases to birth rates are from Middle Eastern/African/West Asian immigrants who breed like rabbits.

 

[FPPF]

Leave will win (if it wins) because of immigration, the white working class hate its effect on their wages and some ethnic communities aren't happy that their ability to get relatives in has been curtailed because of the EU freedom of movement. Far harder for Australians to stay here long term than it was five years ago. The ANZACS spilled a huge amount of blood and we get treated worse than those who fought against the Poms. Indefensible, just indicative of what a spineless, non entity Cameron is. He apparently has been running around Europe telling them all he will campaign to stay in. Poor mans Chamberlain. Boy George has gone very quiet of late as has Boris.

One big thing for LEAVE is that those who support it are older and more likely to vote. Not sure whether the pollsters adjust their raw data for that (as they do for general elections).



Britain gets lion share of inward investment in EU from people like Nissan (its plant in Sunderland makes more cars than the entire Italian car industry) and those foreigners want to keep the same access as now and also for many of them get the cheap labour source. Also most of the City is run by foreign banks.

Its a bit like unfair dismissal and pro union legislation, big business can deal with it via hr departments and / or pass on the costs. Small and medium businesses cant (which is similarly why they are far more anti EU than big business)

A lot of the major manufacturers have assembly factories in Turkey, and export those vehicles to the EU. Turkey isn't in the EU. Shouldn't be a problem for the UK either.

 

[FPPF]

Davos leaders fear 'Brexit' may be deathknell for EU
European politicans plead with Britons to vote "yes" and keep the union intact

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...ers-fear-Brexit-may-be-deathknell-for-EU.html

If I was a Brit going to vote, what I'd be thinking is...well, they pleaded with the Greeks to stay, they asked the Greeks to do this, to do that, promised it would lead to rainbows with pots of gold at the end, but the opposite has happened...why should I trust them when they plead with us now?