Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[TubbsFarquhar]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 19
Essendon V Carlton:
3. Chris Judd
2. Jeff Garlett
1. Marc Murphy

Sydney V Hawthorn:
3. Kieran Jack
2. Adam Goodes
1. Ryan O'Keefe

North Melbourne V Fremantle:
3. Brent Harvey
2. Brady Rawlings
1. Hamish McIntosh

Geelong V Collingwood:
3. Alan Didak
2. Sharrod Wellingham
1. Dale Thomas

West Coast V Brisbane:
3. Jonathon Brown
2. Michael Rischitelli
1. Scott Selwood

St. Kilda V Port Adelaide:
3. Lenny Hayes
2. Adam Schneider
1. Brendon Goddard

Melbourne V Richmond:
3. Lynden Dunn
2. Liam Jurrah
1. Daniel Jackson

Adelaide V Western Bulldogs:
3. Daniel Giansiracusa
2. Daniel Cross
1. Scott Thompson

Leaderboard:
1. Luke Hodge (24)
2. Dane Swan (22)
3. Michael Barlow (19)
4. Gary Ablett (17)
5. Joel Selwood (16)
6. Scott Pendlebury (16)
7. Chris Judd (16)
8. Jimmy Bartel (15)
9. Jobe Watson (14)
10. Lenny Hayes (14)

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Agree on Newman.

DAL SANTO, N (STK) 34.00

Really? I have Hayes 16, NDS/Montagna 14, Goddard 12.

Value as.....

Newman and Dal Santo both massive value in my books. I have Dal Santo behind Hayes and Joey but not by much and Newman only 2 votes behind Deledio and tied with JR.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I have Hayes along way ahed of anyone at St. Kilda even considering using him as a anchor since he represents awseome value. Assuming NDS stays above $15 ill prob "hedge" when/if we can multi. FWIW i have Hayes then Montagna then NDS

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i have chris newman about equal lead with tuck at tigers, hes at 34.00 on centrebet, anyone else have him around the top or is it just me?

love to hear BK's thoughts on this...

im thinking JW will be on 8-9

newmans might be a few behind with lids too

 

[foxy_dal]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I have similar to Athomas with Hayes 16, NDS 14, Goddard 13, Montagna 11. Massive value on Dal although I do think hayes will get up.

I really hope Watson stays around the $2 mark as I have him 8 clear of Stanton.

Agree on Judd being a just about guarenteed and much more so then Swan with Pendlebury the obvious value.

Pav won't win Freo's and unless Sandi has another big game or two Barlow looks nice.

Have Goodes 6 clear of Malceski so will happily take anything at $2 or more.

Priddis way too short in a bottom of the ladder side but hard to pick anyone with great confidence, I like Le Cras the most.

Just a few of my thoughts and great news on TAB allowing multi's.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Crows game was tough. For me, Cross, Gia, Vince and Johncock were the best four on the ground with Cooney, Hudson, Griffin and Symes behind them. Went 3 - Gia, 2 - Cross, 1 - Stiffy in the end.

If everyone had to pick one winner right now, who would it be? I'd be with Selwood atm.

Good question re everyone picking 1 winner.

I'd be on Hodge if the season was over now. However, it isn't and with the Saints run home including North, Rich, Adel I want to be on Lenny. I can't believe that the TAB put him up at the same price as last week, $21. How could they possibly think he didn't poll y/day ??? I went via the TAB this arvo and hit him hard into Coll the flag. I now have him heavily into Geel, Coll, Saints.
I reckon that for Hodge to win he will need a clear 3 votes ( not just a good game or 2 )somewhere over the next 3 weeks.

I also like Pendlebury at the value right now and again can't believe they turned him out from $21 to $26 after his solid match. I also backed him heavily into the Pies today after backing him straight out on Friday ( at $29 ).

I dead set reckon that Swan won't win. Big call I know but I have him tracking the same as I did last year and he polled 12. I am confident that Pendlebury can knock him off for most votes at Coll. I am happy to also suggest that the umps would have thought he was polling well a few weeks ago and that they might have turned him off / rated him far more harshly.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I got on Judd @ 7.50 earlier in the year, and then again @ 16s. He is the only player Im on this year, but think he needs at least another BOG to be any chance.

I am on Judd as well at varying prices. I agree that he needs atleast 1 big BOG in the next 3 to be able to win.
Also agree re a post that it could be a lowish count. There won't be a runaway this year which gives many a chance.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

There's a lot of value around.

Hayes and Judd at $21 each at the TAB.

Pendlebury, Boomer and Selwood all at $26, too.

I think they're all still a shot.

Very good call. I'm on the same page.

If Swan is polling like last year, Gazza suffers previous year's winner syndrome and Hodge misses in a game or 2 when votes are expected it's so open it's not funny and the odds for Judd, Hayes, Pendlebury are amazing. Selwood good value but I doubt he can win and the same with Boomer. In a low count year any of the guys you have mentioned can win.

I agree with your assumption that Sandilands and Goddard aren't value. I don't think that either can win.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

love to hear BK's thoughts on this...

im thinking JW will be on 8-9

newmans might be a few behind with lids too

I damn well hate Richmond when it comes to the medal, especially as they hardly win many games. I'm still having counselling after Richo winning down there last year. HaHa. Deledio polled terribly as we all know.

I have Riewoldt on 10 from Deledio on 8 and Newman lucky to be on 1. Very risky club re the votes so buyer beware applies. I think I'll leave the Tigers alone, especially if Riewoldt is short. I'll be working around Carl, StK, Ess, Bris, Adel, North, Syd, Dogs at this stage. I keep putting too much on the winner and Brownlow - Premiership double as I'm busting to get on the quinellas, club votes and head to head options with multis.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I dead set reckon that Swan won't win. Big call I know but I have him tracking the same as I did last year and he polled 12. I am confident that Pendlebury can knock him off for most votes at Coll.

Hard to believe that Pendles is out from 5.50 to 6.25 to top Pies votes on Centrebet. I think at worst him and Swan both did not poll on the weekend but am of the view that Pendlebury could sneak in for the 1. Hope the TAB follow Centrebet on the odds for most team votes.

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I agree that Swan isnt any certainty to be up there in votes, however I find it surprising that so many reckon that Swan surely wont poll on the weekend.

In the coaches award one coach voted Swan second best on ground whereas the other voted him as third best. Surely coaches have more idea on how a player went then people here? Also umps votes are very random at times and if Swan polled 3 it wouldnt surprise me even though Didak was bog because umps usually dont give Didak what he deserves on Brownlow night.

Just my two cents about it, however people could very well be right and Swan could poll nothing. Its always hard determining who misses when a single team kills it. Sometimes umps chuck a random into the votes as well.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

When was the last time someone with his tats and/or shady off field background (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/vi...o-bashed-cleaner/story-e6frf7kx-1225790205506)

Not saying he doesn't deserve to win it based on his performances - (I think based on performance he should be leading) however umpires have a history of not giving votes to players who may have a dodgy character/aren't seen as darlings.

Back onto team votes - surprised no one has mentioned Jared Brennan, I think he is a big chance to win the Lions votes.

And NDS is definitely over the odds.

Not sure if anyone has records of Montagnas/NDS/Hayes/Goddards price throughout the year but just on memory I'm sure you could have easily setup an arbitrage system with those four.

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Just curious... but was Cousins dodgy before he won the Brownlow or only after winning it?

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I damn well hate Richmond when it comes to the medal, especially as they hardly win many games. I'm still having counselling after Richo winning down there last year. HaHa. Deledio polled terribly as we all know.

I have Riewoldt on 10 from Deledio on 8 and Newman lucky to be on 1. Very risky club re the votes so buyer beware applies. I think I'll leave the Tigers alone, especially if Riewoldt is short. I'll be working around Carl, StK, Ess, Bris, Adel, North, Syd, Dogs at this stage. I keep putting too much on the winner and Brownlow - Premiership double as I'm busting to get on the quinellas, club votes and head to head options with multis.

Out of curiousity who do u have leading the dogs? im staying well clear of them.

 

[FoleyIsGood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Out of curiousity who do u have leading the dogs? im staying well clear of them.

I was just going to ask the same question. Ive got Cooney on 14, Boyd on 13 and Giansiracusa on 12. Very close to call imo.

In terms of Richmonds votes im with Brownlow King as I've only got Newman on 2 Votes. He seems to play well but there are others out there that I seem to notice more.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I was just going to ask the same question. Ive got Cooney on 14, Boyd on 13 and Giansiracusa on 12. Very close to call imo.

In terms of Richmonds votes im with Brownlow King as I've only got Newman on 2 Votes. He seems to play well but there are others out there that I seem to notice more.

I have Cooney + Boyd + Gia + Griffen all within 5 votes of each other. Boyd 1 ahead of Cooney.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Out of curiousity who do u have leading the dogs? im staying well clear of them.

Like others, it's very tight. I have Boyd, Cooney, Cross and Gia within 4 votes of each other.
Last year I anchored Boyd in most mutis but wouldn't be doing that at this stage.

 

[mattybomb22]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

How will Richsitelli poll last night? Missed the match but have Brown and Rischitelli both on 7 coming into the match.

Rischitelli was very good and will probably get the 2 and Browny who single handedly won the match for the Lions would be dead set robbed if he didn't get the 3. Blackie was good as well [1 maybe] so these 3 will have a close tussle for the team votes. I think Black will get the 3 votes in the losing to Freo match to keep him in touch with your 2 picks.

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Adelaide: Thompson (10), Goodwin (5), Johncock (4), Douglas (4)
Brisbane: Rischitelli (9), Brown (8), Brennan (6), Black (6)
Carlton: Judd (19), Simpson (11), Betts (6), Murphy (5)
Collingwood: Swan (21), Pendlebury (14), Beams (8), Didak (7)
Essendon: Watson (14), Winderlich (5), Jetta (4), Stanton (4)
Fremantle: Barlow (16), Sandilands (13), Mundy (8), Pavlich (7)
Geelong: Ablett (17), Bartel (16), Selwood (13), Chapman (11)
Hawthorn: Hodge (23), Mitchell (8), Franklin (7), Rioli (5)
Melbourne: Sylvia (10), Green (8), McDonald (7), Davey (6)
North Melbourne: Harvey (16), Swallow (11), Wells (10), Thomas (3)
Port Adelaide: Rodan (7), Cassisi (7), Boak (6), Pearce (5)
Richmond: Deledio (9), Riewoldt (5), Newman (5), Tuck (5)
St Kilda: Hayes (19), Goddard (14), Montagna (13), Dal Santo (8)
Sydney: Goodes (15), Malceski (9), Bolton (8), Jack (8)
West Coast: Priddis (8), Naitanui (4), LeCras (4), Kennedy (3)
Western Bulldogs: Cooney (14), Boyd (12), Gia (11), Griffen (9)

182 players have polled votes so far.

Watched CAR v ESS, SYD v HAW and COL v GEE. Watched 80% of MEL v RICH and WBD v ADE on replay. Watched first half of STK v PTA and based the second half and other two games on what I read on here, match reports etc. Haven't watched as much football over the past few weeks so I tried to make sure I watched a fair bit this week just to add some sort of assurance to my predictions.

Barlow is looking like good value so far.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Barlow is looking like good value so far.

It is just so hard to bet on him seeing as though he has no prior polling history to go off. Will the umpires see his season the same- will they notice him in the first few rounds?? Quite a bit of doubt there. Sure if he was 5.00 I would probably take the risk, but he just seems a risk at 3.20, when Sandilands could asily be ahead of him..

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

He will have more value after round 22. Maybe it's a risk but it's the old risk reward balancing act.

 

[Modra93]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Lenny Hayes into Collingwood would not work before.. said the combination was invalid or something, other players and teams all worked, someone must have invested big?

Question to those who are running their own tallys, I'm interested to know how much are you expecting to invest in this years count?

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Lenny Hayes into Collingwood would not work before.. said the combination was invalid or something, other players and teams all worked, someone must have invested big?

Question to those who are running their own tallys, I'm interested to know how much are you expecting to invest in this years count?

I heard some are selling their houses and using the funds gained. Then they expect to buy mansions straight after Brownlow night

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Lenny Hayes into Collingwood would not work before.. said the combination was invalid or something, other players and teams all worked, someone must have invested big?

Question to those who are running their own tallys, I'm interested to know how much are you expecting to invest in this years count?

brownlow king hit it hard im pretty sure

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

brownlow king hit it hard im pretty sure

Probably a couple of gorillas