Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[Modra93]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I have a bone to pick with you, Brownlow King!

So before when I said I was receiving that error with trying to multi Hayes into Collingwood for the flag I contacted TAB's support and this was their response;

It's all good - Geelong will win the flag, anyway.

Maybe try Hayes into Collingwood to make the GF, paying 36.75.... significantly less yes, but more likely pay out and if you have money into geelong as well then you could potentially win on both anyway

 

[tranquilli lace]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I have a bone to pick with you, Brownlow King!

So before when I said I was receiving that error with trying to multi Hayes into Collingwood for the flag I contacted TAB's support and this was their response;



It's all good - Geelong will win the flag, anyway.

This is too funny! BK has em on the hop already.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Maybe try Hayes into Collingwood to make the GF, paying 36.75.... significantly less yes, but more likely pay out and if you have money into geelong as well then you could potentially win on both anyway

Good point....either way if you think Coll will make the GF it's about the same if you plan to offlay like I do.
There is no more enjoyable feeling than, having won a packet on the medal on the Monday night, I lie restlesly in bed all week pondering how much I want to offlay from the Flag favourite onto the other side.
Last year I was Gazza - Geel and went really close to covering on the Saints at the +7.5 pts, I would have jumped the fence and strangled Max Rooke if I did. Instead I backed the saints straight out but still left a lot more of the win on Geel.

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Gee it would be nice not to work !!!! I sure do work and need to squeeze in watching games, doing analysis etc. amongst my hectic life like everyone else.
I find that during the AFL season, particularly late in the year like now when I watch and analyse more closely, it's hard to focus on much else in life.
It's like a relief in a way when the Brownlow's over and I can be normal again for 6 months.

brownlow night is like grown up christmas for me...im sitting awake the night before....there is a fat man in charge with his little helpers and i end up with $$$$

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

brownlow night is like grown up christmas for me...im sitting awake the night before....there is a fat man in charge with his little helpers and i end up with $$$$

I hear you !!

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

brownlow night is like grown up christmas for me...im sitting awake the night before....there is a fat man in charge with his little helpers and i end up with $$$$

i take the week off haha

 

[Fadge]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I am on Judd as well at varying prices. I agree that he needs atleast 1 big BOG in the next 3 to be able to win.
Also agree re a post that it could be a lowish count. There won't be a runaway this year which gives many a chance.

BK, I reckon you should disclose all of your bets in one entry immediately before the count so as we can all see how you fare.

I have five bets, three of which are live:
Placed in Jan:
Hawthorn Premiership/Sewell Brownlow - $5610 to $10
Hawthorn Top 4/Sewell Brownlow - $1020 to $8
Magpies Premiership/Pendlebury Brownlow - $5610 to $10
Magpies Top 4/Pendlebury Brownlow - $1020 to $8
Placed yesterday:
Hayes Brownlow - $980 to $50 (Betfair, before I realised you could still get $21 on Sportsbet and Centrebet!)

I'll sit on them thank you very much. Would be surprised though not flabbergasted if Pendlebury outpolls Swan, but can easily see Hayes outpolling both of them. Reckon this has been Hayes' best and most consistent year, and he's been knocking on the door for the past 3 years. He is way, way overs.

Last year was the first time I did the Top 4/Brownlow and Premiership Brownlow doubles - reckon there's real value in them at the start of the year and both years I've been getting a run for my money. I had Swan (who was 100 to 1 at the start of last year) and Collingwood going for $10K (Premiership) and $2K (Top 4), so I was getting a little excited leading into the Preliminary Final. (I also had Harvey/Kangas and Dal Santo/Saints).

 

[mattybomb22]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK, I reckon you should disclose all of your bets in one entry immediately before the count so as we can all see how you fare.

I doubt there would be enough room on this post to list that lot!
Good luck BK and thanks for all the pointers. Juddy looked after me last year [Q and Tri ] so might go with him again for the placing.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I jumped on Hayes into Geelong/Collingwood @ $74/$61 on Centrebet.

Will need to get my TAB account up and going again ready for those juicy multis.

 

[Modra93]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone know how the TAB creates the prices for its quinella markets, is there a formula depending on current odds that can be used to work out the approximate pricing?

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone remember when the TAB opened the "Most Team Votes" markets if they were similar prices to the Centerbet ones?

Just trying to gauge whether we should expect the TAB odds to be similar to Centerbet's this year as there is plenty of value at Centerbet right now.

Most were pretty similar and slightly less. However they got a few wrong so a few actually had longer odds then some of the centrebet ones.

I'd say most would be 5-10% shorter then the Centrebet ones though.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone remember when the TAB opened the "Most Team Votes" markets if they were similar prices to the Centerbet ones?

Just trying to gauge whether we should expect the TAB odds to be similar to Centerbet's this year as there is plenty of value at Centerbet right now.

Most were pretty similar and slightly less. However they got a few wrong so a few actually had longer odds then some of the centrebet ones.

I'd say most would be 5-10% shorter then the Centrebet ones though.

Yep, Athomas looks to be right on the money, if you compare the centrebet odds to the odds put up by TABozbet (WA TAB):

https://www.ozbet.com.au/UISecure/S...sportSeq=183&sportEnNav=True&eventSeq=1589607

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone know how the TAB creates the prices for its quinella markets, is there a formula depending on current odds that can be used to work out the approximate pricing?

Good question, not sure the answer but would also like to know. Is it a case of simply multiplying the 2 odds? For example hodge/Hayes quinella would be 7*21=147?

 

[FoleyIsGood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Good question, not sure the answer but would also like to know. Is it a case of simply multiplying the 2 odds? For example hodge/Hayes quinella would be 7*21=147?

Could be the odds for winning/place so in your case of hodge/hayes it would be $7*$6=$42

 

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

could be the odds for winning/place so in your case of hodge/hayes it would be $7*$6=$42

that one looks closer than the $147

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone remember when the TAB opened the "Most Team Votes" markets if they were similar prices to the Centerbet ones?

Just trying to gauge whether we should expect the TAB odds to be similar to Centerbet's this year as there is plenty of value at Centerbet right now.

The TAB hold most cash on the Brownlow and I don't reckon that they look at the markets put up by others so the Centrebet odds are a guide only. Every Monday the Melb TAB put up the Brownlow winners odds around 1 pm then Centrebet go up around 2 pm ( never before the TAN which means they always wait to see what the TAB are doing ) and then Sportingbet around 4 pm. I don't look at others but bet they don't go up before the TAB.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Does anyone know how the TAB creates the prices for its quinella markets, is there a formula depending on current odds that can be used to work out the approximate pricing?

I reckon that they simply frame a market in its own right and it doesn't directly correlate with the winners prices. i could be wrong but that's what I reckon.
Last year every option involving Ablett was very short and then Judd etc. Judd into Ablett opened around $8 or so and they weren't $4 x $2.

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Found the formula to work out correct odds for quinella as follows:

Percent likelihood of quinella = P1*P2/(1-P1) + P2*P1/(1-P2)
P1= probability of player 1 winning (in %) & P2 =probability of player 1 winning (in %)

So using example above Hayes ($21) - Hodge (7) quinella:
P1 = 1/21 = 0.0476 P2 = 1/7 = 0.1492

P1*P2/(1-P1) + P2*P1/(1-P2) = 0.0476*0.1492/(1-0.0476) + 0.1492*0.0476(1-0.1492) = 0.015

Hence odds for Hayes-Hodge quinella today should be = 1/0.015 = $66

Apologies for this boring math analysis, just thought some would be interested in trying to predict what the potential quinella odds might be in a few weeks time.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK, I reckon you should disclose all of your bets in one entry immediately before the count so as we can all see how you fare.

I have five bets, three of which are live:
Placed in Jan:
Hawthorn Premiership/Sewell Brownlow - $5610 to $10
Hawthorn Top 4/Sewell Brownlow - $1020 to $8
Magpies Premiership/Pendlebury Brownlow - $5610 to $10
Magpies Top 4/Pendlebury Brownlow - $1020 to $8
Placed yesterday:
Hayes Brownlow - $980 to $50 (Betfair, before I realised you could still get $21 on Sportsbet and Centrebet!)

I'll sit on them thank you very much. Would be surprised though not flabbergasted if Pendlebury outpolls Swan, but can easily see Hayes outpolling both of them. Reckon this has been Hayes' best and most consistent year, and he's been knocking on the door for the past 3 years. He is way, way overs.

Last year was the first time I did the Top 4/Brownlow and Premiership Brownlow doubles - reckon there's real value in them at the start of the year and both years I've been getting a run for my money. I had Swan (who was 100 to 1 at the start of last year) and Collingwood going for $10K (Premiership) and $2K (Top 4), so I was getting a little excited leading into the Preliminary Final. (I also had Harvey/Kangas and Dal Santo/Saints).

Yep it would take a while for me to put them all up.
As previously mentioned, I've hopped on Hodge ( for a fair bit - 3rd best result, very large ), Judd ( for plenty - 2nd best result, massive ), Hayes ( for plenty - best result, massive ), Swan ( not for much, medium ), Pendlebury ( for a fair bit, very large ), Selwood ( medium ), Watson ( got out to silly odds ), Sandilands, Brown ( before season started ), all of the last 4 are not for much.
If Ablett wins I'm screwed on these bets. I'm thinking of loading up on the Swan - Coll double ( already have him into Cats and Saints ) to make him a big winning result. Then I'd be pretty much only risking Goddard and Sandilands ( only a small collect ).
What do you guys reckon if you were me ? Let Swan ride to fair extent like I did last year or get on him and almost guarantee a win.
Like all of you the team multis, group bet multis and quinellas is what I am waiting for but I might as well try to win big on the winner and the delay in other options has kept me pumping funds into the winner.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Found the formula to work out correct odds for quinella as follows:

Percent likelihood of quinella = P1*P2/(1-P1) + P2*P1/(1-P2)
P1= probability of player 1 winning (in %) & P2 =probability of player 1 winning (in %)

So using example above Hayes ($21) - Hodge (7) quinella:
P1 = 1/21 = 0.0476 P2 = 1/7 = 0.1492

P1*P2/(1-P1) + P2*P1/(1-P2) = 0.0476*0.1492/(1-0.0476) + 0.1492*0.0476(1-0.1492) = 0.015

Hence odds for Hayes-Hodge quinella today should be = 1/0.015 = $66

Apologies for this boring math analysis, just thought some would be interested in trying to predict what the potential quinella odds might be in a few weeks time.

Holy cow, well done, are you a professor of Mathematics at Melbourne University ??????????????

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Holy cow, well done, are you a professor of Mathematics at Melbourne University ??????????????

LOL, not quite a professor! Just got the formula off the net and worked it out using a spreadsheet. Didnt include any profit margin percentages that bookies would most likely apply though. So the odds in case above could perhaps be significantly lower. Maybe 50 instead of 66?

Just worked out correct quinella odds for Hayes-Judd based on their odds today and it would be $210. With bookies margins perhaps $150?
BK - I remember reading you placed bets on the Black-Cooney quinella 2 years ago at odds of $120. Do you remember what the players individual odds were at the time?

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

LOL, not quite a professor! Just got the formula off the net and worked it out using a spreadsheet. Didnt include any profit margin percentages that bookies would most likely apply though. So the odds in case above could perhaps be significantly lower. Maybe 50 instead of 66?

Just worked out correct quinella odds for Hayes-Judd based on their odds today and it would be $210. With bookies margins perhaps $150?
BK - I remember reading you placed bets on the Black-Cooney quinella 2 years ago at odds of $120. Do you remember what the players individual odds were at the time?

Good point, Cooney was $16 and Black $25 and the quinella was $131. There you go professor, work that out ! NB the odds may have altered very slightly but I'm quite sure they are accurate.

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Good point, Cooney was $16 and Black $25 and the quinella was $131. There you go professor, work that out ! NB the odds may have altered very slightly but I'm quite sure they are accurate.

LOL, Thanks BK -

Correct odds for the Cooney($16) - Black ($25) quinella wouldve given you $189. Hence it gets reduced significantly with bookies margins etc -About 30% reduction in this case.

So Hayes-Judd today could well be: 210*0.7 = $147.
Hayes-Hodge today would perhaps be: $46

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

what must be noted is that a collingwood player getting votes is detrimental to a different collingwood player getting votes.

With this is mind, a Swan-Pendlebury or Ablett-Selwood quinella would expect to pay more than it should, according to correct formula.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I reckon that they simply frame a market in its own right and it doesn't directly correlate with the winners prices. i could be wrong but that's what I reckon.
Last year every option involving Ablett was very short and then Judd etc. Judd into Ablett opened around $8 or so and they weren't $4 x $2.

No doubt they trim a little extra fat off combinations involving big-name players, or players from popular clubs. Far more difficult for the casual punter to identify unders in markets like the quinella.