Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

who did you guys end up giving votes for in the bris /wce match? does browns winning goal get him 3?

I ended up giving him the 3....but i rate black risch and brennan all equal chances of takin the other votes.....

I am finding brisbane really hard but think brown has the edge with 3 possible bogs and black needing votes in losing games.

others thoughts?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Brownlow King said:
It's clear now thanks. I see what you are doing and it makes good sense. To be honest I keep it more simple and do the following :
rate the 16 clubs in order of 1 to 16. 1 equals the club where a player is a moral ( Carlton with Judd ), 16 equals a club where it's too close to call ( say Melbourne ).
I then use anchors similar to many others who have posted and build it up from there. i try to have lots of 8,9 and 10 legs.
Since the market and variety of bookies offering odds is small I either take what's on offer or if the player is too short ( Hodge ) I ignore that club and go to the next club. Your idea makes sense but may be limited with a lack of available competition in the betting market.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply, your idea sounds really good, probably why you make so much profit every year:). The only problem with the formula is, for example judd is leading Carlton's votes with 24 and second is Kade Simpson with 10 and a bunch around 5 and lower. The formula still gives judd at 2 to 1 odds even though he is, in my opinion the most certain to lead their votes out of all teams. I'll probably scale the votes at a rate of 1.2 to 1 vote to allow shorter favourites and longer outsiders like the TAB and other bookies will. I think the formula will work better with group options instead of team votes.

I will definitely take your advice of numbering the teams from 1 to 16 depending on how confident of the winner I am.

Thanks again.
jimbob7085
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Brownlow King said:
Almost impossible but I went
3 Brown
2 Black
1 Brennan

I'm sure a WC player will get a vote somewhere but I couldn't pick it.
Click to expand...

I went
3 Brown
2 S Selwood
1 Rischitelli

I would say Brown has the 3 wrapped up but the 1 and 2 could go to a number of players.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 19 Leaderboard:
22 - L. Hodge
21 - C. Judd (+)
21 - L. Hayes (+)
19 - G. Ablett
18 - D. Swan
18 - S. Pendlebury (+)
16 - M. Boyd
16 - J. Bartel
15 – A. Goodes (+)
15 – J. Selwood
15 - A. Cooney
15 - M. Barlow
14 - J. Watson
14 - A. Swallow
13 - B. Harvey (+)
13 - A. Sandilands

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.

For more info, complete round votes, discussion and leaderboard visit http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hayes
Round 3 = 2
Round 6 = BOG 3
Round 8 = 2 (might grab 3)
Round 9 = BOG 3
Roun 14 = 1
Round 15 = 2
Round 17 = BOG 3
Round 19 = BOG 3
Lenny Hayes = 19

St.Kilda will win there next 3 games, Hayes will surely grab at least another 2-3 votes putting him around 21-23 (on my tally at least).
Great value @ $21
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Long-time lurker, first time poster here. Great job on all the opinions and Brownlow talk so far guys! Really hoping to cash in too this year :)

Anyway, like many others here, I think Judd is great value at $21 especially if Carlton can manage to finish strong. What concerns me a little though, is possibly whether some of his onfield incidents could negatively affect his polling and reputation with the umpires? The eye-gouge (I know it was at the end of last season but he still missed 3 games this at the start of this one), and the Pavlich incident that he was lucky to escape a suspension for. Anyone think these could affect how he polls in regards to the 'fair' aspect?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

It's definetly worth considering, the eye gauging incident was terrible for Judd, it's one of the lowest acts you can perform on a footy field and to go with the elbow that split Pavlich's face open, yet somehow he got off the umpires opinion of "fair player", may have changed somewhat.

There has been a lot of optimism of late for Judd/Hayes and a couple of others but to be honest I can see Swan and Hodge bursting out the rest of the pack. I will putting quite a bit on the Swan/Hodge quinella once the markets open.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i reckon judd is only about 3-4 votes away from being a very, very live chance. could already be on 20 with carlton's overall form and next to no-one to take votes away from him.

brownlow king - your thoughts please, and that of adam goodes? has the latter done enough to be on around 15 or so?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

bph25 said:
who did you guys end up giving votes for in the bris /wce match? does browns winning goal get him 3?

I ended up giving him the 3....but i rate black risch and brennan all equal chances of takin the other votes.....

I am finding brisbane really hard but think brown has the edge with 3 possible bogs and black needing votes in losing games.

others thoughts?
Click to expand...

you are right on the mark with this assessment. brown for sure , from rischetelli and black. these are the 3 for team votes and blackie a big chance of polling in losing games to mel, freo and saints . he tied with brownie last year and right on track for the same result.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK any chance you can post your tally for Swan and what you have him on and what rounds you think he will poll in?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Interesting spread of odds available on Hayes. TAB and Centrebet leading the way on $21, surprisingly even lower on Betfair ($19.5), Sportsbet a little more toey at $18 but Luxbet seem to be the most clued in to his chances, they've wound him in to $13!
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

After comments from one famous bigfooty punters regarding some big bets he has placed this week, i flicked straight to the betting section in todays paper.

FROM THE HERALD SUN THIS MORNING in the punting column.

"There is plenty of cash around at TAB Sportsbet this week.

One Collingwood admirer has parted with $8000 on some premiership-Brownlow doubles.

The Pies fan has plonked $4000 on Collingwood to the flag into Scott Pendlebury winning the Brownlow at $78 for a $312000 collect, and a further $4000 on a Lenny Hayes-Magpies double at $63 for a $252000 pay day.

"The Pies are flying and the punter is trying to inject some value into them," Davies said."

BK is famous haha. Bets he posted on here few days ago have made it to the Sun, and I bet he's worrying Gary Davies and his mates.

I'm dumping some more coin on Pendles today - I can see a big 3 vote game coming tonight.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Can selwood win?

He polled well in 08/09

Statistically he looks to be better and without alblet getting 40 touches will he get the 3's when only expected to get 1-2?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

tranquilli lace said:
Just wondering who everyone has as their leader at the halfway mark of the season? Ablett, Barlow & Judd the main three contenders?
Click to expand...

According to my tally, at the halfway mark I had Ablett 15, Hodge 14, Judd 14, with Hayes the next best on 12.

I successfully got on Black last year in this market, but unless either of those 4 are offered at decent odds i'll probably pass at betting on that market this year as it's too close to call for me.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Monte Carlo said:
After comments from one famous bigfooty punters regarding some big bets he has placed this week, i flicked straight to the betting section in todays paper.

FROM THE HERALD SUN THIS MORNING in the punting column.

"There is plenty of cash around at TAB Sportsbet this week.

One Collingwood admirer has parted with $8000 on some premiership-Brownlow doubles.

The Pies fan has plonked $4000 on Collingwood to the flag into Scott Pendlebury winning the Brownlow at $78 for a $312000 collect, and a further $4000 on a Lenny Hayes-Magpies double at $63 for a $252000 pay day.

"The Pies are flying and the punter is trying to inject some value into them," Davies said."

BK is famous haha. Bets he posted on here few days ago have made it to the Sun, and I bet he's worrying Gary Davies and his mates.

I'm dumping some more coin on Pendles today - I can see a big 3 vote game coming tonight.
Click to expand...

:D

That's pretty funny. The only thing wrong is that BK is a Geelong supporter, but those were the bets he made.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

tranquilli lace said:
Just wondering who everyone has as their leader at the halfway mark of the season? Ablett, Barlow & Judd the main three contenders?
Click to expand...

I have Ablett 15 (min 13- max 16), Hodge & Barlow 13 (12-14), Judd 12 (10-13) and then daylight

Based on that I had Ablett a $2 chance, got on at $3.20 on Betfair but he's in to about $2.30 now. Hodge/Barlow $5.60 based on my numbers and Judd an outsider
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

PowerfulPies2023
  • Sticky
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal
2 3
Replies
74
Views
5K
dontlimitme
dontlimitme
balmainforever
AFL 2023 - AFL Round 10 (Sir Doug Nicholls Round - part 1)
20 21 22 23 24
Replies
590
Views
16K
GROTTO
GROTTO
balmainforever
AFL 2023 - AFL Round 11 (Sir Doug Nicholls Round - part 2)
16 17 18 19 20
Replies
484
Views
17K
pendlebury_10
pendlebury_10
balmainforever
AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 1
37 38 39 40 41
Replies
1K
Views
24K
Fizza
Fizza
balmainforever
  • Locked
AFL 2023 - AFL Round 5 part 2
35 36 37 38 39
Replies
971
Views
19K
Selim
Selim
rank and file
AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls
31 32 33 34 35
Replies
862
Views
66K
balmainforever
balmainforever
kickazz
Four arrested in 2022 Brownlow betting investigation
2 3 4
Replies
77
Views
4K
NYRB
N

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top