Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BOYD, M (WBD) 2.25
COONEY, A (WBD) 2.55
LAKE, B (WBD) 10.00
CROSS, D (WBD) 11.00
GIANSIRACUSA, D (WBD) 12.00
HALL, B (WBD) 14.00

Where is R.Griffen in the centrebet WBD most team votes? :confused:
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Notorious_29 said:
Adelaide - Thompson
Brisbane - Black
Carlton - Judd
Collingwood - Swan
Essendon - Watson
Fremantle - Barlow (Sandi 2 behind)
Geelong - Ablett
Hawthorn - Hodge
Melbourne - Sylvia
North - Sylvia
Port - Cassisi
Richmond - Deledio
St Kilda - Hayes
Sydney - Goodes
West Coast - LeCras
Western Bulldogs - Griffen
Click to expand...
Boomer?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Monte Carlo said:
WOW, its starting to get heated on the Brownlow board. Yet, i love that everyone is so passionate about stealing from the bookies haha.

I'm glad everyone has jumped on the Pendles band wagon, when some wrote my bet off early in the year. Really think he's got a chance with (most likely) 18.5 wins for the pies this year.

Just wondering how many posters on here are Melbournians. I said earlier that last year me and some mates went to Crown last year for the count, had some frothies and mingled with the players afterwards. Wondering if anyone is keen to meet up to cheer on some wagers and enjoy some beverages? i reckon it would be a bit of fun haha.
Click to expand...
Ha ha i live in Melbourne if I win big I'll go into crown and hug the players =)
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Adelaide - Thompson
Brisbane - Brown
Carlton - Judd
Collingwood - Swan
Essendon - Watson
Fremantle - Barlow
Geelong - Ablett
Hawthorn - Hodge
Melbourne - Sylvia
North - Harvey
Port - Cassisi
Richmond - Tuck
St Kilda - Hayes
Sydney - Goodes
West Coast - Priddis
Western Bulldogs - Boyd

That is how I see it.

TBH I think Syliva's price is crazy, as is Cassisi's.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

mike262 said:
judd into 10.50 on WA TAB :eek:

Got him at 12 :(

Lol and sandilands is at 10.50. Ridiculous amount of freo love here,
Click to expand...

In the first 13 or 14 weeks Barlow could poll any amount of votes and Sandi missed a few now after this week= no chance
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

A BOG for Naitanui could see him win the Eagles at 34 to 1. great odds. I will tell you one thing,A Selwood not even a slight chance - most overated player in the league.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

RU486 said:
Insane, a couple of hours ago he was at $14. What's weird is he is still $4.20 for a place.

Before I take Watson for a ride how do people see him polling for Essendon. I have him comfortably leading on around 10-12 votes with stanton his nearest on between 4-6. Is it worth chucking a good sum of moolah on Watson or is he no longer worth it?
Click to expand...

im not sure what watson is currently at (waiting for tabs odds)
but he is a fair chance to poll this week, very good record agaisnt lions.. so come monday his odds for essendons could crunch again..
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

rowie343 said:
I have put a fair bit on hodge this week. The $8 is great value considering he was almost half that three weeks ago. I think he is still up amongst it at the moment and am gambling on him polling well in his last 2 games. A BOG and a 1 vote game will do very nicely and could just about win it for him. There is a chance of that happening, also the fact that the hawks will be gunning for 5th /6th position they dont have the luxury of resting players.
Got my fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
I agree, Hodge looks likely for a big game and if he got a clear 3 this weekend he will be right back in it.
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Also have my fingers crossed for a 180+ supercoach game from Goddard, but he comments the umpire's wives during the game!
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hi all,
long time reader, first time poster in this thread.
Not doing my own count, but I've watched a significant amount of games this year and following this thread closely.
I thought I'd stick my neck out a bit and show you guys my brownlow bets so far.

Here are my bets with various agencies:
Sportingbet – Bet $20 on L.Hayes to win the Brownlow at $21.
Sportingbet – Bet $20 on C.Judd to win the Brownlow at $23.
Betfair – Bet $15 on C.Judd to win the Brownlow at $19.50.
Betfair – Bet $15 on L.Hodge to win the Brownlow at $11 (unmatched on Betfair atm)
Centrebet – Bet $10 on J.Selwood to win the Brownlow at $26.
Centrebet – Bet $90 on D.Swan to win the Brownlow medal at $5.25.
Betfair – (Traded-Out) – Laid $34.47 on D.Swan at $4.70.
Betfair – (Traded-Out) – Laid $35.53 on D.Swan at $4.80.
Betfair – (Traded-Out) – Laid $8.21 on D.Swan at $4.90.
Centrebet (Traded-Out) – Bet $25 on D.Swan at $4.25.
Betfair – (Traded-Out) – Laid $25 on D.Swan at $4.00.
Basically this is the profit and loss for me (so far) although I will definetley try to get more on Swan/Ablett and possibly a little bit on Pendlebury. C.Judd +654.50, L.Hayes +322, J.Selwood +167, L.Hodge +107.50, D.Swan +8.93, -98 otherwise

Centrebet – Bet $50 on J.Watson to poll most votes for Essendon at $1.95.
Centrebet – Bet $10 free-bet on J.Watson to poll most votes for Essendon at $1.95.
Centrebet – Bet $30 on S.Thompson to poll most votes for Adelaide at $2.55.
Centrebet – (Traded-Out) – Bet $15 on R.Douglas for Adelaide at $5.25.
(R.Douglas +33.75, S.Thompson +31.50, -45 otherwise)
Centrebet – Bet $10 on T.Boak to poll most votes for Port Adelaide at $6.75.
Centrebet – (Traded-Out) – Bet $10 on D.Cassisi for Port Adelaide at $7.25.
(D.Cassisi +52.50, T.Boak +47.50, -20 otherwise)
Centrebet – Bet $25 on L.Hayes to poll most votes for St. Kilda at $2.90.
Centrebet – Bet $20 on A.Goodes to poll most votes for Sydney at $2.85.

Other bets I am considering at the moment:
Betfair – Bet on G.Ablett as winning Brownlow at round 11 at $2.30ish.
Bet on J.Selwood to win Geelong total votes at $5.00ish.
Bet on M.Barlow to win Fremantle total votes at $3.20ish.

Just had a look and some betfair odds are ridiculous. Can't believe Judd is at $16-18ish and Hodge is at about $10-11. Swan is far too short now below $3 for any value imo. Selwood at $24-28ish is also pretty good and I just stuck $10 on him at $26 on centrebet - could easily crush the blues in a big win.

I'm wondering if people think Ablett is a good thing to lead at round 11? strongly considering sticking a bit on that soon. could probs get $2.20-2.30 odds which i think is quite generous. Barlow and Hodge would be the main threats one would imagine. Very difficult to predict how Barlow will poll but Hodge played very well in many losses, I think Hawthorn were 5-6 at round 11, so surely he'd struggle?

Just though this may be some interesting reading/food for thought for some.
Cheers guys. Keep up the fine work. Lets rip these betting agencies to shreds! Again!
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

s1bbald said:
Nice work BK! He's at $15 at the TAB, but do you mind leaving him for a couple of hours so I can put my measly amount on him first? :D Go Blues/Judd/Selwood for tonight!
Click to expand...

Will you be topping the $100,000 of bets on this year BK? must be close to it already.
Bookies will be running scared of brownlow betting one of these days
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Thought I would add my analysis, take it with a pinch of salt as I haven`t watched all the games and had to just review stats for them. I have noted that votes will more often go to goalkicking midfielders and midfielders taking marks, so I have added importance of that. I also gave an increased weighting to flashy/damaging players eg Watson gets 30 touches Winderlich 25, Winderlich gets votes.

Leaderboard Current WA TAB Prices

D Swan 24 $2.75
M Boyd 23 $61.00
G Ablett 23 $5.70
S Pendlebury 22 $16.00
C Judd 22 $11.50
L Hodge 22 $6.40
L Hayes 19 $23.00
J Selwood 17 $23.00
P Chapman 17 Ineligible
M Barlow 16 $251.00
B Goddard 15 $16.00

Team Votes

Adelaide
Thompson 12 $1.61
Goodwin 8 $7.50
Vince 7 N/A

This is a tough one, but there are a few games where there aren`t any standouts, Thompson has the most games where he should poll which should be enough, but if any of Goodwin or even Douglas,VB OR Tippett poll particularly well then he couls be knocked off.

Brisbane
Brown 9 $2.40
Black 8 $2.11
Rischitelli 8 $6.60
Power 6 $9.50

Have Brown with 3 BOGs that should gethim across the line. A lot of games where votes could go either way with Black,Power,Rischitelli and others sharing a lot of ball. Black msy do it because of his polling history but rischitelli has been their best mid this year.

Carlton
Judd 22 $1.03
Simpson 11 $10.25
Scotland 9 N/A

Gave Judd 1 vote in the Collingwood loss.

Collingwood
Swan 24 $1.10
Pendlebury 22 $4.25
Didak 13 $31.00

Pendlebury could definetley win this,these three were the clear standouts from the team, I doubt Ball,Beams,Thomas and Wellingham will steal many votes. Didak could definetley poll more than this, he is getting a lot of the ball,using it well and kicking goals which could providthe edge in some games. Swan and Pendlebury could go either way, I feel they have been very even this year.

Essendon
Watson 12 $1.79
Winderlich 7 $10.50
Stanton 7 $2.65
Hille 7 $16.00
Watson doesn`t poll until round 7 but should do this easily.

Fremantle
Barlow 16 $3.15
Mundy 8 $19.00
Pavlich 8 $4.40
Sandilands 7 $1.77

Barlow should do this easily, he was massive in the first half of the year when Freo won a lot of games. Mundy has never gotton have a vote before, but never played in the midfield like this before and could surprise. Pavlich has only had 2 Dominant games and other than that been solid and won`t poll too well. Sandilands won`t poll well either, has had an overall dominant season without playing singular dominant games.

Geelong
Ablett 23 $1.18
Selwood 17 $4.90
Chapman 17 $26.00
Bartel 15 $12.50

Chapman could be leading by halfway had a massive start to the year and how the votes are split between he and Ablett could determine the medal. I suspect Ablett may suffer from winning last year and need to be absolutely dominant to poll.

Hawthorn
Hodge 22 $1.01
Sewell 9 $19.50

Melbourne
Sylvia 13 $3.60
Davey 8 N/A
Moloney 7 $4.75

Sylvia has a big second half of the year and doesn`t face much competition, do not fancy Green to poll well.

North Melbourne
Harvey 14 $1.32
Swallow 9 $3.50

Harvey could go better than this, Sawllow probably won`t be noticed enough to poll well.

Port Adelaide
Boak 11 $10.75
Cassisi 10 $7.00
Pearce 6 $7.00

Haven`t factored in Rodans flashy clearance work or kornes stats, and apart from the occasional one off stand out performance, Cassisi and Boak have been the main mids for Port and it should be a two horse race between them.

Richmond
Newman 7 $34.00
Deledio 7 $5.85
Tuck 6 $2.60

Newman ridiculous value, in his big games-the tigers have won and he has kicked important goals, massive chance. Deledio has got a lot of disposals off half back while Tuck has been the main man in the midfield.

St kilda
Hayes 19 $2.85
Goddard 15 $2.40
Montagna 14 $2.75

Hayes won`t poll in enough games to win the whole thing, should win this but if Goddard polls better than last year he could surprise.

Sydney
Goodes 13 $2.10
O`keefe 13 $12.00

Goodes far from a lock here, was perhaps a bit generous to O`keefe early in the year but he had a massive start.

Western Bulldogs
Boyd 23 $2.16
Cooney 13 $2.45

Boyd has had a massive year as the main ballwinner for the dogs and a smokey to win it, there is a lot of competition as there are a number of games where boyd,cooney,gia,griffen and cross could raffle the votes.

West Coast Eagles
LeCras 6 $5.90
Priddis 5 $1.05
Naitanui 5 $31.00

The Eagles won`t be getting too many votes and it should be between these 3.​
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

^Thanks for the analysis, & for giving everywhere an idea of how much the contenders are paying to top their team. Seems to be some geat value at Port, hopefully Cassisi/Boak are this years Lenny Hayes. Didn't see many Sydney games this year, but a two horse race between Goodes + O'Keefe would be great, easy to cover them both in a multi. To be honest I don't see O'Keefe geting near him though. Ditto for Melbourne, except I'd be taking Sylvia + Green. I'm starting to get excited! :)
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

That's an excellent writeup Naitashuey. I'll be referring back to that for sure. Thanks for taking the time!
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Goodwin, Boak, Pendulbury, Barlow, and Sylvia is sure to be a good multi this year for most team votes anyone agree??? Any problems with that bet??? Just wanting some feedback :)
 
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Joelskies317 said:
Goodwin, Boak, Pendulbury, Barlow, and Sylvia is sure to be a good multi this year for most team votes anyone agree??? Any problems with that bet??? Just wanting some feedback :)
Click to expand...

I can see more then one broken leg in that multi.

Go back and review your votes.
 
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